Heavy Rain & Continuing Flood Risk - Saturday Dec 12th, 2015

Villain

Never trust the pub run

There is a lot of uncertainty but the Met forecast for Saturday on met.ie has been pretty much the same on each update:

Saturday: Cloudy over south Munster and south Leinster with outbreaks of rain on Saturday morning and cold and frosty with icy patches elsewhere. The band of rain in the south may move northwards and turn to sleet or snow for a time. Frost is likely again in northern parts on Saturday night, but it will become milder in the south.

aisling86

Do we think the charts will keep flipping? What's the most reliable?

Villain

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Shifts north or south will have the least impact on Clare, Limerick, north Kerry, south Galway and that region is already more or less into a level two alert situation, with level three overtones. Cork remains problematic but as most drainage there is from northwest to southeast, actual rainfall amounts over the south and east of the county are not the only factor in play for flood potential.

High tides may cause issues for Cork though?

maquiladora

Villain wrote: »

Never trust the pub run

There is a lot of uncertainty but the Met forecast for Saturday on met.ie has been pretty much the same on each update:

That part of the forecast usually only updates once at day at around 5am.

Oneiric 3

If the trend continues towards a more northern route and track of this front, this will only add to the flooding problems along the Shannon which are already most severely hit as heavy rain in the regions such as the GFS & ECM are showing tonight willl have more impact downstream. Not something that those who are dealing with severe flooding already want to hear.

Rock Lesnar

Ah boll*x, i looked in here at 7 this morning, it seemed grand and quiet, i look in here now and i see charts for the weekend that possibly shows a lot of rain for north meath that i cant take.

Just feck off Rain

M.T. Cranium

Yes, the higher tides would be another problem factor that won't help anywhere, the issue being that rivers slow down their discharge (backing up from tidewater) as they meet the higher tides.

I also agree that the 18z GFS run sometimes misses the mark so that the 00z runs will be where we might expect to find better consensus developing. It would be great to wake up (if any of you actually sleep) to better news but there seems no way out of this inevitable rebound frontal situation looking upstream.

Irish Steve

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Ah boll*x, i looked in here at 7 this morning, it seemed grand and quiet, i look in here now and i see charts for the weekend that possibly shows a lot of rain for north meath that i cant take.

Just feck off Rain

Have to admit that the potential for significant rain in Meath has me like a bear with a sore head, probably because of the history of flooding here, and a combination the local authority and Irish Water that can't get off their collective a**es to DO something about issues that were reported to them over 10 years ago.

Right now, the thought of 60 plus mm of rain this weekend has me scared witless, as I don't know what more I can do to try and stop yet another flood event.

What I do know is that if we are flooded yet again, we won't see a single stuffed suit from Irish Water within 100 miles of here, yet it's a piece of pipe that they are responsible for that is our biggest risk factor.

maquiladora

Starting to get into the range of some higher res models now. 18Z ARPEGE shows the core of the front approaching the southwest coast early Saturday morning.

Rock Lesnar

Irish Steve wrote: »

Have to admit that the potential for significant rain in Meath has me like a bear with a sore head, probably because of the history of flooding here, and a combination the local authority and Irish Water that can't get off their collective a**es to DO something about issues that were reported to them over 10 years ago.

Right now, the thought of 60 plus mm of rain this weekend has me scared witless, as I don't know what more I can do to try and stop yet another flood event.

What I do know is that if we are flooded yet again, we won't see a single stuffed suit from Irish Water within 100 miles of here, yet it's a piece of pipe that they are responsible for that is our biggest risk factor.

Not with irish water so cant comment on them but don't get me started on the local authority, rang 3 times last weekend, yeah somebody will be out i was told, still waiting to see them

Rock Lesnar

maquiladora wrote: »

Starting to get into the range of some higher res models now. 18Z ARPEGE shows the core of the front approaching the southwest coast early Saturday morning.

Maq i know its still a fair bit away and anything can change, but in your opinion, will we get a lot of rain in north leinster

Oneiric 3

Meteoblue model out to Sat 12z. Sort of a halfway house.

maquiladora

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Maq i know its still a fair bit away and anything can change, but in your opinion, will we get a lot of rain in north leinster

Afraid I just couldn't tell you. You are not as likely to see extreme rainfall as the southwest or west, but over the next 10 days or so I'd expect you might see 40-60mm, maybe more, but probably not less. That's not much more than a guess though.

Oneiric 3

EC ensemble mean run Vs op run (dotted isobars) for Saturday 12z




The op run has the warm front (fat, badly drawn front) further north than the mean showed (thin, badly drawn warm front), so I think going from this that rain band positioning for Saturday is far from resolved yet. On to the 00z runs.

Oneiric 3

GSM 18z. Also further north than 12z




I don't know who or what runs the GSM model, but it often seems remarkably similar to GFS outputs on a run by run basis.

snowstreams

I think it's more worrying if the rain ends up further north. That map above looks quite similar to Desmond.
The west Midlands can't take much more rain at this stage. Any more and the 2009 flood records will probably be broken.

Irish Steve

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Not with irish water so cant comment on them but don't get me started on the local authority, rang 3 times last weekend, yeah somebody will be out i was told, still waiting to see them

I know where you're coming from, the favourite trick in previous times with MCC was to not reply to letters, on the basis that if it's not written, ir didn't happen, and that's where E-mail is now so much more effective, in that there's proof that it was sent, and if they don't reply, there is at least proof of the contact.

That said, while the permanent staff of MCC are a nightmare to deal with, the people at the sharp end on the ground are as good as the system will let them be, and in a different vein, one of our local concillors has been incredibly good in both trying to make sure issues have been dealt with, and with pushing to get things done, but he's up against a culture in the permanent staff that came straight out of "Yes Minister", I've sat in on the local area meetings over the last 12 months, and some of the attitudes I see from the full time staff beggar description.

All I can do at the moment is make sure all my protection systems are ready, and operational, and hope that we don't get too much rain in too short a period of time. I somehow don't think I will be sleeping much this weekend!

pauldry

Dont think this will be a Desmond..

It will be a wet weekend with 40mm about of rain but Desmond was 2,500km of rain ....this systems just a regular heavy rain job though admittedly slowmoving.

Natonstan

I've been trying to keep up with all these weather updates, I'm flying home from America on the 23rd (landing in Dublin early Christmas Eve), it's probably too early to predict at this stage but do you reckon we'll run into delays if things remain the same as they have over the past few days?

Gaoth Laidir

I don't know who or what runs the GSM model, but it often seems remarkably similar to GFS outputs on a run by run basis.

GSM stands for Global Spectral Model and is run by the Japanese Met Agency.

Villain

Further north again on 00z which is bad news for Western areas but good news for the South

elastico

Natonstan wrote: »

I've been trying to keep up with all these weather updates, I'm flying home from America on the 23rd (landing in Dublin early Christmas Eve), it's probably too early to predict at this stage but do you reckon we'll run into delays if things remain the same as they have over the past few days?

Far too early.

maquiladora

More changes on the 0Z runs.

GFS has moved even further north, with only counties in the west/northwest seeing heavy rain (up to around 100mm) over the weekend.



UKMO has the rain further south.



ECM is a tad further south than it's last run, but the west still gets the worst of it.



GEM looks similar to the UKMO



The GFS operational run may have the rain a little too far north this time I think.

km79

another weekend ruined
only one left before Xmas
whats the bets it will be wet !

legomaniac

Thankfully the threat of more extreme flooding this weekend has passed. Both Met Eireann's and MTC's forecasts have been greatly downgraded. Hopefully I'll see a few flakes on Saturday, albeit wet ones!

km79

legomaniac wrote: »

Thankfully the threat of more extreme flooding this weekend has passed. Both Met Eireann's and MTC's forecasts have been greatly downgraded. Hopefully I'll see a few flakes on Saturday, albeit wet ones!

really ? Mtcs is still saying up to 100mm in places and Met Eireann will do what they did last weekend.........major upgrade 12 hours before it starts

leahyl

legomaniac wrote: »

Thankfully the threat of more extreme flooding this weekend has passed. Both Met Eireann's and MTC's forecasts have been greatly downgraded. Hopefully I'll see a few flakes on Saturday, albeit wet ones!

?? They have?? I don't think the Met Eireann one was "upgraded" to be "downgraded"!

maquiladora

The risk of severe flooding in the south has definitely been greatly reduced since yesterday.

Beyond that I wouldn't make any concrete predictions at this stage since there are still changes every time the models are updated.

km79

maquiladora wrote: »

The risk of severe flooding in the south has definitely been greatly reduced since yesterday.

Beyond that I wouldn't make any concrete predictions at this stage since there are still changes every time the models are updated.

If it keeps shifting north the worst might just clip the coast

munsterlegend

km79 wrote: »

If it keeps shifting north the worst might just clip the coast

Big changes from yesterday afternoon alright. This afternoon will probably have a better handle on the rain's exact path but the South looks out of the firing line for now. The River Shannon counties could do without any more rainfall.