Heavy Rain & Continuing Flood Risk - Saturday Dec 12th, 2015

my3cents

Can't really take much more rain here (South coast near Waterford), anything over 40mm in day and we can flood. Its location location location but with added moisture, just don't tell me all that rain is going to come with a southerly storm which at high tide can add another couple of feet to the water level. Sunday 13th isn't a really high tide but the highest tide for the month.

If it keeps going north thats good news for me.

Rock Lesnar

What about the north east, will we be effected by it moving north

km79

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

What about the north east, will we be effected by it moving north

it's shifting more to affect west\north west so good for you bad for us at moment

maquiladora

06Z GFS has shifted the heaviest rain a bit further south again. This is more in line with the ECM now.

km79

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS has shifted the heaviest rain a bit further south again. This is more in line with the ECM now.

directly in the firing line now
great

ninebeanrows

A dangerous scenario setting up for parts of Ireland in the coming days, with exceptional rainfall totals expected, compounding flooding issues.

Severe flood warnings are likely. It does not look good.

northgirl

Are we still looking at severe alert for Cork area? I know it's a little early and keeps changing.

cherryghost

northgirl wrote: »

Are we still looking at severe alert for Cork area? I know it's a little early and keeps changing.

So far no. It looks like West and Midlands will get 50-100mm over the weekend, adding more pressure to possible Shannon overflow. It can all easily change. It's changed so much since yesterday.

maquiladora

06Z GFS shows max of about 90mm by Monday morning.

Villain

Latest charts show issues for Galway and Clare but this an evolving situation, the charts will change on each run.

josip

At this stage it just looks more a question of exactly what path it will take across the country rather than whether it will cross or not.
If I lived anywhere in the Shannon basin that has ever flooded in living memory I would be spending the next few days getting as much as I could off of the floor at ground level.

WheatenBriar

Villain wrote: »

Latest charts show issues for Galway and Clare but this an evolving situation, the charts will change on each run.

Give or take,a similar track so soon after Desmond shouldn't be surprising sadly

km79

it's pretty clear now this is happening
Met Eireann should have a preliminary warning in place to get people prepared
last weekend was a joke how late in the week they warned people and now this ....... I know the track is not nailed down but some areas are getting flooded and will have knock on effects for majority of areas already suffering .

my3cents

km79 wrote: »

it's pretty clear now this is happening
Met Eireann should have a preliminary warning in place to get people prepared
last weekend was a joke how late in the week they warned people and now this ....... I know the track is not nailed down but some areas are getting flooded and will have knock on effects for majority of areas already suffering .

There are no National Warnings in operation

:rolleyes:

KingdomRushed

It's too early for national warnings. Clearly as of last night the national warning would be for south. Now that has changed to west and Midlands and projected totals are also shifting. While we may think common sense should necessitate a national warning there are ever shifting probabilities at play so it's certainly not yet time. Behind the scenes flood preparation etc is happening all along the Shannon. The warnings will come tomorrow I'm sure.

km79

KingdomRushed wrote: »

It's too early for national warnings. Clearly as of last night the national warning would be for south. Now that has changed to west and Midlands and projected totals are also shifting. While we may think common sense should necessitate a national warning there are ever shifting probabilities at play so it's certainly not yet time. Behind the scenes flood preparation etc is happening all along the Shannon. The warnings will come tomorrow I'm sure.

the current forecast is likely to be COMPLETEY innacurate and has not changed in days
they could at least change that in line with current charts
they are a national agency and we are relying on the goodwill of a man on the internet from Canada for real forecasts
not good enough

elastico

my3cents wrote: »

There are no National Warnings in operation

:rolleyes:

All the relevant authorities are well aware the shannon is still rising and are still putting defences in place. Too early for a met eireann warning.

my3cents

Given how inaccurate met eireann forcasts are I really don't see that it is to early to provide a general warning.

That doesn't mean I think met eireann is rubbish at its job but the way the present the forecast to the general public doesn't provide anything other than very general information about weather that may or may not occur. So an early warning that some part of the country MAY get very heavy rain on Sunday would be helpful to those like myself that live in an area liable to flooding.

Planet X

I think Met Éireann forecasts are brilliant and as spot on as forecasting can be.
Some people want to know if it'll rain in their back garden.

my3cents

Planet X wrote: »

I think Met Éireann forecasts are brilliant and as spot on as forecasting can be.
Some people want to know if it'll rain in their back garden.

And some areas fall between the general forecast areas that Met Éireann use. This is going off topic but I can get a better idea of the weeks weather by trying to see whats under the weather forecasters elbow on the BBC's Country File than I can from a Met Éireann forecast.

I think a further point in favour of Met Éireann giving earlier warnings even if they are tentative is because of the number of people that use them for forecasts. Where else do people look for weather warnings relating to Ireland?


Edit> If I hadn't of spotted this thread I'd have been oblivious to the potential of being flooded at the weekend. As it is I probably won't but have the choice of taking extra precautions just in case.

_Puma_

Galway looks to be directly in the firing line now. Corrib catchment is already near 2009 levels. Was flooding chaos already this week on the N17 and N84, 2 main artery from Northern Galway into the city. Pretty bad in the south and east of the county already towards the shannon basin. Councils need to start putting in preventative measure asap. Very little has been done so far and national media coverage has tended to focus on the south of the country up to now.

Cantona's Collars

Planet X wrote: »

I think Met Éireann forecasts are brilliant and as spot on as forecasting can be.
Some people want to know if it'll rain in their back garden.

The one problem for anybody listening to forecasts on the radio yesterday evening/last night was the fact ME spokesperson said that the situation in the Midwest would improve today as the rain moved East,no mention of the coming weekend's rain.

StewartGriffin

my3cents wrote: »

I think a further point in favour of Met Éireann giving earlier warnings even if they are tentative is because of the number of people that use them for forecasts. Where else do people look for weather warnings relating to Ireland?


Edit> If I hadn't of spotted this thread I'd have been oblivious to the potential of being flooded at the weekend. As it is I probably won't but have the choice of taking extra precautions just in case.

Didn't agree before but these are very good points. Met Eireann are depended on by people and yet they seem too fearful of looking foolish. They should issue a warning anyway and downgrade as the situation demands. Not the other way around.

Villain

They just need an Advisory system that is 24 hrs ahead of warnings imo

Iancar29

Just so yous know , Met Eireann are advising agencies and county councils about the possible flooding this weekend . They just haven't put an alert on for tv forecasts yet as it still could go either way.

Yesterdays rainfall accumulation had it alot worse for the south.


Still though , the Shannon basin is still in the firing line.

km79

Iancar29 wrote: »

Just so yous know , Met Eireann are advising agencies and county councils about the possible flooding this weekend . They just haven't put an alert on for tv forecasts yet as it still could go either way.

Yesterdays rainfall accumulation had it alot worse for the south.


Still though , the Shannon basin is still in the firing line.

hope it goes AWAY

leahyl

But just as the west and north west looked to be missing it on yesterdays charts, couldn't it still change again so that it goes back to the south being in the firing line again? This whole system seems very uncertain as regards track it's going to take.

Xenji

If the models do not change again Mayo is going to take a serious hit, its barely made the national media, but there is already widespread flooding in the county, we could have 225-250mm of rainfall so far this month in places after Saturday.

pad199207

Cork City after dodging a bullet! Looked very dodgy there for a time on yesterdays charts!

cherryghost

pad199207 wrote: »

Cork City after dodging a bullet! Looked very dodgy there for a time on yesterdays charts!

The charts can still still change. We'll have a more solid foothold by tonight/tomorrow morning