Heavy Rain & Continuing Flood Risk - Saturday Dec 12th, 2015

cyclops999

cherryghost wrote: »

The charts can still still change. We'll have a more solid foothold by tonight/tomorrow morning

According to ESB forecast water levels in the River Shannon at Athlone will increase by a further 310mm. This is looking really bad.

Baggy Trousers

cyclops999 wrote: »

According to ESB forecast water levels in the River Shannon at Athlone will increase by a further 310mm. This is looking really bad.

How does that compare with 2009?

The floods I see in west Galway are definitely lower than the 2009 levels. It's bad but they are considerably lower. Lough Corrib is lower for sure.

munsterlegend

cherryghost wrote: »

The charts can still still change. We'll have a more solid foothold by tonight/tomorrow morning

these system usually do go a bit further north and miss us down south. have to wait and see I suppose. it will be wet just how wet is the question.

maquiladora

Coming into range of the EURO4 now. Looks like the heaviest rain would arrive on the Clare or North Kerry coast on this model.



Here's how the same chart at the same time looks on the GFS.

pauldry

Why do the media always rely solely on met eireann and more knowledgeable long range forecasters here never get a mention.

Surely if the nation wants an early warning system news should say " according to top long range forecasters on boards there is now a level 1 rainfall alert in place for the weekend"

cyclops999

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

How does that compare with 2009?

The floods I see in west Galway are definitely lower than the 2009 levels. It's bad but they are considerably lower. Lough Corrib is lower for sure.

Right on the limit of 09 , weekends rainfall could break 09 record .

coillsaille

pauldry wrote: »

Why do the media always rely solely on met eireann and more knowledgeable long range forecasters here never get a mention.

Surely if the nation wants an early warning system news should say " according to top long range forecasters on boards there is now a level 1 rainfall alert in place for the weekend"

True. Funny how the media are more than willing to look at sources other than Met Eireann when it comes to ice age winters being "forecast" months ahead.

Gaoth Laidir

pauldry wrote: »

Why do the media always rely solely on met eireann and more knowledgeable long range forecasters here never get a mention.

Surely if the nation wants an early warning system news should say " according to top long range forecasters on boards there is now a level 1 rainfall alert in place for the weekend"

Yes, they should rely more on Madden and Co. and that way we'll always be prepared for the worst 365 days a year 😒

_Puma_

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

How does that compare with 2009?

The floods I see in west Galway are definitely lower than the 2009 levels. It's bad but they are considerably lower. Lough Corrib is lower for sure.

I was told the lower Corrib is getting close to 2009. Clare and Creag rivers have already burst and Galway Bay fm have flooding notices for areas close by to them already. Going from what I saw at Annaghdown pier it looks like it is getting close to 2009 A lot of runoff still to come and this weekends rainfall could tip it over. Waterlevel.ie has some real time data from the opw level stations.

km79

is there another update soon ?

Planet X

zerks wrote: »

The one problem for anybody listening to forecasts on the radio yesterday evening/last night was the fact ME spokesperson said that the situation in the Midwest would improve today as the rain moved East,no mention of the coming weekend's rain.

Yesterday as in Wednesday.
And you want ME to forecast the weekends weather. 3 to 4 days in advance.....and if a squall line or whatever is off by a county or two.......Jaysus, ME haven't a clue type of response.

Baggy Trousers

_Puma_ wrote: »

I was told the lower Corrib is getting close to 2009. Clare and Creag rivers have already burst and Galway Bay fm have flooding notices for areas close by to them already. Going from what I saw at Annaghdown pier it looks like it is getting close to 2009 A lot of runoff still to come and this weekends rainfall could tip it over. Waterlevel.ie has some real time data from the opw level stations.

The lower Corrib is about 1 foot off 2009 levels from my visual inspection and looking at old photos. I am not sure it is still rising either but the weekend might change that.

Jpmarn

The results of the 12z run should be coming out soon. I hoping for a downgrade especially for the flooded areas.

maquiladora

Westmeath County Council

The Council is in receipt of an ESB forecast of river levels for the next four days and it is expected that water levels will reach 39.60mOD by Monday 14th of December 2015. It should be noted that this represents an increase of 310mm above current levels and would be close to the maximum level recorded in 2009

KingdomRushed

While some are piling on to Met Eireann here it is worth being a bit scientific and having a look at what they are actually saying

Saturday will be cold, dry and frosty in the north of the country to start. Further south, cloudy damp conditions will deteriorate further and push northwards. Rain will be quite heavy, especially over Munster, Connacht and the Midlands and is likely to be preceded by sleet and snow initially. Further flooding can be expected, with the south and west of the country most at risk. But any snow will clear with the advancing heavy rain. Winds will be moderate easterly, veering south to southwest with the advancing rain and freshening.

Clearly they are noting that there is heavy rain forecast, and there is a risk of flooding in 48 hours time. Warnings will appear tomorrow. Unfortunately though, Ger Murphy and Jeanne won't be knocking on everyone's window tonight to tell them in person to prepare for floods.

Baggy Trousers

maquiladora wrote: »

Westmeath County Council

The Council is in receipt of an ESB forecast of river levels for the next four days and it is expected that water levels will reach 39.60mOD by Monday 14th of December 2015. It should be noted that this represents an increase of 310mm above current levels and would be close to the maximum level recorded in 2009

That is my read of it too, water levels in west Galway are about 1 foot (300mm) below 2009 levels and currently dropping slowly (the Salmon Weir in Galway is impressive today).

h57xiucj2z946q

Nasty.

Thousands of litres of raw sewage pour onto the streets of Athlone as locals battle filthy flood waters

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/storm-desmond-aftermath/thousands-of-litres-of-raw-sewage-pour-onto-the-streets-of-athlone-as-locals-battle-filthy-flood-waters-34275946.html

km79

KingdomRushed wrote: »

While some are piling on to Met Eireann here it is worth being a bit scientific and having a look at what they are actually saying

Saturday will be cold, dry and frosty in the north of the country to start. Further south, cloudy damp conditions will deteriorate further and push northwards. Rain will be quite heavy, especially over Munster, Connacht and the Midlands and is likely to be preceded by sleet and snow initially. Further flooding can be expected, with the south and west of the country most at risk. But any snow will clear with the advancing heavy rain. Winds will be moderate easterly, veering south to southwest with the advancing rain and freshening.

Clearly they are noting that there is heavy rain forecast, and there is a risk of flooding in 48 hours time. Warnings will appear tomorrow. Unfortunately though, Ger Murphy and Jeanne won't be knocking on everyone's window tonight to tell them in person to prepare for floods.

Added at 11.19
Our debate here started with my post at 10.20
Maybe they are watching these forums

Larbre34

One in 50 year events now down to about one in 5. Something for all property owners to carefully consider.

DOCARCH

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Unfortunately though, Ger Murphy and Jeanne won't be knocking on everyone's window tonight to tell them in person to prepare for floods.

Aside from the names...love the concept! :P Will you send Siobhan around to mine?

snowstreams

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

That is my read of it too, water levels in west Galway are about 1 foot (300mm) below 2009 levels and currently dropping slowly (the Salmon Weir in Galway is impressive today).

It looks like the Corrib might not yet have peaked. At least at Dangan which isnt tidal anyway you can see that it is varying all the time going up and down but the overall trend seems to be up. It was higher today than I've seen it yet.

http://waterlevel.ie/0000030098/0001/week/

StewartGriffin

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Unfortunately though, Ger Murphy and Jeanne won't be knocking on everyone's window tonight to tell them in person to prepare for floods.

DOCARCH wrote: »

Aside from the names...love the concept! :P Will you send Siobhan around to mine?

Oh yes! Send Jean Byrne to me please. Or perhaps Teresa. Or Both! :eek:

KingdomRushed

It looks further south again slightly on GFS 12z, but modelled rainfall intensity seems less than previously modelled on 6Z

km79

KingdomRushed wrote: »

It looks further south again slightly on GFS 12z, but modelled rainfall intensity seems less than previously modelled on 6Z

there does seem to be a slight lessening in intensity which is great news
also does it seem to be sweeping through a little quicker and less INCESSANT?

Oneiric 3

EMHI HIRLAM 12z keeping it further south too, but with some leading edge sleet or wet snow for a time over the central belt of the country.

maquiladora

12Z GFS has max totals of around 60mm by Sunday morning whereas the 12Z GFS had 80mm.

cherryghost

Looks more like a standard wet weekend for most areas. Still doesnt help that most of the ground is still saturated. This may still be problematic.

coleria

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

That is my read of it too, water levels in west Galway are about 1 foot (300mm) below 2009 levels and currently dropping slowly (the Salmon Weir in Galway is impressive today).

Nov 09 Max level at Angligham was 6.928m OD (Malin)

Latest data: Dec. 10, 2015, 3:45 p.m. (UTC / GMT) staff gauge level 1.838m. OD level 9.848m. Staff gauge zero is 8.010m above Poolbeg datum

Poolbeg OD -2.7m from Malin OD

Current level Angligham 7.148m OD (Malin) and increase of 200mm since 16:00 yesterday

and more rain to come,

I've never see the river Corrib this high.

maquiladora

cherryghost wrote: »

Looks more like a standard wet weekend for most areas. Still doesnt help that most of the ground is still saturated. This may still be problematic.

GFS is still showing about 40-50mm within a 24 hour period in places where the ground is saturated. That will cause flooding even if it's a big step down from the huge totals shown yesterday.

Still, there will probably be further changes to come.

maquiladora

12Z ARPEGE has 100mm over the southwest by Monday.