Heavy Rain & Continuing Flood Risk - Saturday Dec 12th, 2015

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ARPEGE has 100mm over the southwest by Monday.

whats the ARPEGE model about Maq and it's accuracy?

km79

maquiladora wrote: »

GFS is still showing about 40-50mm within a 24 hour period in places where the ground is saturated. That will cause flooding even if it's a big step down from the huge totals shown yesterday.

Still, there will probably be further changes to come.

any drop in intensity is good news !
keep up the good work!

maquiladora

ARPEGE is the French model, developed with ECMWF. It's claimed to have pretty good verification stats but I've only recently started looking at it.

Villain

Thank god for the downgrades!!

JCX BXC

Can we calm?

This thread is now bombarded by
"WILL I HAVE RAIN AT MY EXACT LOCATION ON A TIME ON SATURDAY" when it has been stated that it really can't be pinpointed and "OMG THE RAIN BETTER GO NORTH" despite the rain going north causing bad problems for the already badly flooded north west.

coleria

snowstreams wrote: »

It looks like the Corrib might not yet have peaked. At least at Dangan which isnt tidal anyway you can see that it is varying all the time going up and down but the overall trend seems to be up. It was higher today than I've seen it yet.

http://waterlevel.ie/0000030098/0001/week/

At 12:30 10/12/2015

Dangan 9.481m (highest since installed 1986)

29/11/2009

Dangan max 9.469m

SEPT 23 1989

ME are going to put out warnings in the morning

maquiladora

Weather Advisory for Ireland

A spell of heavy rain is forecast for Saturday, mainly affecting Munster, Connacht and Leinster. Details of this event are still uncertain, follow up warnings will be issued during Friday morning.

Issued:Thursday 10 December 2015 17:00
Valid:Saturday 12 December 2015 00:02 to Saturday 12 December 2015 23:59

km79

maquiladora wrote: »

Weather Advisory for Ireland

A spell of heavy rain is forecast for Saturday, mainly affecting Munster, Connacht and Leinster. Details of this event are still uncertain, follow up warnings will be issued during Friday morning.

Issued:Thursday 10 December 2015 17:00
Valid:Saturday 12 December 2015 00:02 to Saturday 12 December 2015 23:59

That's sensible and exactly what we were calling for earlier ........

Zzippy

snowstreams wrote: »

It looks like the Corrib might not yet have peaked. At least at Dangan which isnt tidal anyway you can see that it is varying all the time going up and down but the overall trend seems to be up. It was higher today than I've seen it yet.

http://waterlevel.ie/0000030098/0001/week/

coleria wrote: »

Nov 09 Max level at Angligham was 6.928m OD (Malin)

Latest data: Dec. 10, 2015, 3:45 p.m. (UTC / GMT) staff gauge level 1.838m. OD level 9.848m. Staff gauge zero is 8.010m above Poolbeg datum

Poolbeg OD -2.7m from Malin OD

Current level Angligham 7.148m OD (Malin) and increase of 200mm since 16:00 yesterday

and more rain to come,

I've never see the river Corrib this high.

The river is a more accurate guide to water levels. Wind direction can have a big effect on lake levels, southwesterly winds really pile the water up on the eastern side, so variations from day to day in wind direction can have a big effect on water level gauges on that side of the lake.

mayo.mick

OfficeofPublicWorks Retweeted
Clare County Council ‏@ClareCoCo 54m54 minutes ago
We have issued a severe flood warning for all of County Clare in advance of potential heavy rainfall during Sat. http://clarecoconotices.ie/

maquiladora

12Z EURO4 sends the heavy rain into the southwest. 75mm shading there at noon Saturday, most of that falling in 12 hours. There's even a tiny dot of 100mm shading there if you look closely.

48 hours is as far as the model goes.

JCX BXC

The weather on RTE now is warning of very wet weather Saturday and flooding mentioned. Really emphasised that Saturday will not be good.

More details in an hour.

Irelandcool

Is El Nino influencing this extreme weather pattern. As a guy from Mitchelstown we only have to worry about winds here no matter how much rain comes down it doesn't flood with the exception of St Fanahan's well.

Villain

Main headline on Six One and it showed a snippet at start with Evelyn saying more heavy rainfall coming for Friday night and Saturday.

Glad to see Met Eireann issuing Advisories, much better step.

aisling86

km79 wrote: »

Added at 11.19
Our debate here started with my post at 10.20
Maybe they are watching these forums

They are totally looking here!!

Oscar Bravo

so many people and there livelihoods ruined so close to christmas and worse to come for many more , sad to see.

maquiladora

The EURO4 is showing rainfall rates of 40mm+ within 6 hours in places. That's red warning criteria.

It could be overdoing it, it could be wrong. But that's what it shows.

Oneiric 3

EC 12z prep at 48hrs

my3cents

At times like this when it comes to warnings I think all forecasters should be reminded of Michael Fish.

Oneiric 3

Villain wrote: »

Main headline on Six One and it showed a snippet at start with Evelyn saying more heavy rainfall coming for Friday night and Saturday.

Glad to see Met Eireann issuing Advisories, much better step.

Only a couple of days ago I recall that Evelyn C saying on the news that there was no more major rainfall events on the way for the forseeable. Just shows how unpredictable the weather can be even in this age of powerful supercomputers and NWP outputs.

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Only a couple of days ago I recall that Evelyn C saying on the news that there was no more major rainfall events on the way for the forseeable. Just shows how unpredictable the weather can be even in this age of powerful supercomputers and NWP outputs.

At the moment the forseeable with respect to rainfall totals and further flooding potential is only just that, a couple of days.

Iancar29

Latest NMM showing Clare, Galway and Westmeath bearing the brunt of the rain on Saturday.

Villain

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

so many people and there livelihoods ruined so close to christmas and worse to come for many more , sad to see.

My brothers house got flooded by the Slaney many years ago, I'll never forget the impact, it is hard to imagine unless you experience it

Oneiric 3

Irelandcool wrote: »

Is El Nino influencing this extreme weather pattern. As a guy from Mitchelstown we only have to worry about winds here no matter how much rain comes down it doesn't flood with the exception of St Fanahan's well.

I did some small research for an article on El Nino and Irish winters for IWO about a month ago. Basically I found that El Nino has little or no influence on weather on this side of the world. The below table shows the 'average' conditions for each month in Ireland during El Nino winters of varying strength, but even in each 'box, there is plenty of spread, particularity with lower strength Nino events as their sample rate is larger.

munsterlegend

Iancar29 wrote: »

Latest NMM showing Clare, Galway and Westmeath bearing the brunt of the rain on Saturday.

Couple of hundred miles either way will make such a big difference. Think the west and Midlands most likely to be affected at this stage.

Villain

Net weather High Res Rainfall Accumulations up to Saturday 12:00

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Latest NMM showing Clare, Galway and Westmeath bearing the brunt of the rain on Saturday.

Of course if the GFS is wrong then these models that use the GFS as a parent model will also be wrong. Same goes with the EURO4 if the UKMO is wrong.

RobertKK

Then more rain for Monday according to Siobhan Ryan.

Villain

Six One Weather