Heavy Rain & Continuing Flood Risk - Saturday Dec 12th, 2015

Villain

Harmonie model that Met Eireann use doesn't look good for Galway and Mayo

JCX BXC

Looking at the model on the Met Eireann website, at 12pm Saturday there is 3mm/h + percip and a temp of 1c right over Knock airport!

pauldry

This is all out to sea with a standard 40mm in Connemara and the Western areas that have slightly (and I use that word very very carefully) more capacity than inland.

Monday could be another problem yet.

km79

pauldry wrote: »

This is all out to sea with a standard 40mm in Connemara and the Western areas that have slightly (and I use that word very very carefully) more capacity than inland.
.

do you think so??????

maquiladora

For what it's worth, 18Z EURO4 has about 55-60mm over the southwest up until 6pm Saturday(as far as the model goes).

Red warning is 70mm+ in 24 hours.



At this stage I'd take all the models with a pinch of salt until tomorrow afternoon.

Oneiric 3

And the DMI HIRLAM (Icelandic version) 18z run has the heaviest rain further north affecting Donegal/Sligo then on eastwards. I give up.

B17G

18Z HIRLAM for midday Saturday.

maquiladora

Met Office puts the front over the south.

Wanderer78

i think its time to start putting money down lads!

Meteorite58

2/1 North
1/1 midlands
4/6 South

Swiftly

My money is on the Icelandic's model

cyclops999

Meteorite58 wrote: »

2/1 North
1/1 midlands
4/6 South

Will give 20/1 if it stays really far south give Athlone a break

Villain

Further South on overnight charts

Rock Lesnar

bbc had it mainly over the central part of the country on their forecast before 7 o'clock, and right over us

maquiladora

0Z models seems to be in better agreement now with the southerly track. Heaviest rain over the southwest. GFS shows up to 60mm by the end of Saturday night. EURO4 is similar, 60-70mm. ARPGEGE has up to 100mm by Monday night.

Certainly enough to cause flooding problems though it is about half the amount that was shown back when this thread was started.

Clonmel1000

maquiladora wrote: »

0Z models seems to be in better agreement now with the southerly track. Heaviest rain over the southwest. GFS shows up to 60mm by the end of Saturday night. EURO4 is similar, 60-70mm. ARPGEGE has up to 100mm by Monday night.

Certainly enough to cause flooding problems though it is about half the amount that was shown back when this thread was started.

Which in fairness is why ME cant go jumping in 4/5 days out with predictions. They'd be rightly lambasted for getting it wrong.

km79

UK met office now has the really heavy rain for the south as well
when do we enter "nailed on " territory or is this one just a case of wait and see?

maquiladora

STATUS ORANGE

Rainfall Warning for Clare, Cork and Kerry
Prolonged falls of very heavy rain expected overnight Friday and during Saturday with totals of 30 to 50mm, larger totals on higher ground. Further flooding is expected.

km79

maquiladora wrote: »

STATUS ORANGE

Rainfall Warning for Clare, Cork and Kerry
Prolonged falls of very heavy rain expected overnight Friday and during Saturday with totals of 30 to 50mm, larger totals on higher ground. Further flooding is expected.

no mention of galway in either warning yet..........is there a red on the way?

maquiladora

km79 wrote: »

no mention of galway in either warning yet..........is there a red on the way?

Galway has less than 20mm on the GFS. There could still be changes but the heaviest is limited to the southwest on most models now.

km79

maquiladora wrote: »

Galway has less than 20mm on the GFS. There could still be changes but the heaviest is limited to the southwest on most models now.

possibly snow ?

Rock Lesnar

No mention of meath in the warnings, i thought it was moving north east, this has me worried, after last thursday's rain

Martin_D

Must be a big umbrella over Waterford - not mentioned in the Yellow but ever other county in south east is - same last week and we had biblical rain!

Storm 10

ME gone Orange now

Rock Lesnar

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

No mention of meath in the warnings, i thought it was moving north east, this has me worried, after last thursday's rain

Now its much of Leinster they say, BBC forecast earlier looking fairly right now

Villain

Met Eireann just updated Yellow warning to cover everywhere else removing specific counties. High tide and this rain could cause Cork problems imo

STATUS ORANGE

Rainfall Warning for Clare, Cork and Kerry

Prolonged falls of very heavy rain expected overnight Friday and during Saturday with totals of 30 to 50mm, larger totals on higher ground. Further flooding is expected.
Issued:
Friday 11 December 2015 07:00
Valid:
Saturday 12 December 2015 00:01 to Saturday 12 December 2015 23:59


STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Remaining counties of Munster, much of Leinster and much of Connacht

Falls of very heavy, prolonged rain at times overnight and during Saturday with totals of 25 to 35mm, larger totals on higher ground. Further flooding expected.
Issued:
Friday 11 December 2015 08:18
Valid:
Saturday 12 December 2015 00:01 to Saturday 12 December 2015 23:59

curfumsarinn

It's a funny thing about the Shannon; most of us think of it as a North-South flowing river, starting in Cavan, and that's the way we were all taught about it in school. In fact though the geographical convention about rivers has always been (as I understand it) that you measure a river from the sea back up its' longest tributary, and that longest line becomes the river, which in Ireland would mean that above Carrick-on-Shannon, instead of continuing north through Lough Allen, the river Shannon actually comes from the West. The route is (from Carrick), heading west along the Boyle River through Cootehall and Knockvicar, up through Lough Key to Boyle, and it winds on for miles through Roscommon and Mayo, with the very longest strectch running right up to beside the runway at Knock Airport, as I recall.

What this means is that if there is serious flooding in East Mayo, then the Shannonsiders should start filling sandabags, although the drop in the Shannon is so small over its' length (in the northern reaches) that it takes a long time for the flow to hit Ahtlone and points below.

Anyhoo. I always thought that was interesting. As you were.

km79

Villain wrote: »

Met Eireann just updated Yellow warning to cover everywhere else removing specific counties. High tide and this rain could cause Cork problems imo

Was amazed Galway had been left out of original
Back in the mix now

Baggy Trousers

On radio this morning, they were warning of rainfall of up to 100mm.
The warning on Met.ie today is saying max 50mm in west Munster and 35mm elsewhere.

maquiladora

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

On radio this morning, they were warning of rainfall of up to 100mm.
The warning on Met.ie today is saying max 50mm in west Munster and 35mm elsewhere.

Some models show up to 100mm but that would be over mountains, or if you added on the additional rainfall likely on Sunday and Monday in the southwest.