Heavy Rain & Continuing Flood Risk - Saturday Dec 12th, 2015

cyclops999

Maq how much rain do you think the Athlone area can expect from this system?

maquiladora

cyclops999 wrote: »

Maq how much rain do you think the Athlone area can expect from this system?

Hard to predict exact locations like that. Your best bet would be watching the radar on the day. Wouldn't expect any more than about 25mm there if the heaviest ends up over the southwest though.

PixelTrawler

An inch of rain above Athlone wont be good news. Lough Allen and Ree are both still rising as it is. Talk of having to evacuate 90 houses in Athlone this weekend, last night on tv.

As a local pub owner said, Lough Ree is 11 miles wide and it funnels into Athlone... pretty bleak in parts there.

cherryghost

100mm high ground maybe

whippet

when they say 'much of leinster' is this a sort of south west line through Leinster or how far north are they talking about?

maquiladora

No real change on the 06Z GFS. Max of around 60mm around south Kerry / west Cork area.

06Z HIRLAM is a bit further north again with max of around 50mm over Clare.

Villain

Yup Kerry looks in firing line from GFS 06z, we are in high res range now so those charts will inform us a little more later but even at 12hrs these kind of events are hard to nail

WheatenBriar

36+ over the south wicklow mtns
The slaney and avoca already near full flood

StewartGriffin

Villain wrote: »

Yup Kerry looks in firing line from GFS 06z, we are in high res range now so those charts will inform us a little more later but even at 12hrs these kind of events are hard to nail

Isn't that for next Monday?

average_runner

StewartGriffin wrote: »

Isn't that for next Monday?

Enniscorthy will surely flood at the weekend with that rain for Wicklow mts!!

WheatenBriar

average_runner wrote: »

Enniscorthy will surely flood at the weekend with that rain for Wicklow mts!!

Yeah definitely as will places upstream and Arklow

WheatenBriar

StewartGriffin wrote: »

Isn't that for next Monday?

Its the total accumulated up to monday I presume, Im on a phone so didn't look at that
Wicklow mtn totals will be a lot higher than that by Monday, they'll get that tomorrow alone Id say if this tracks overhead

Villain

Yep that chart is accumulation up to Monday, it doesn't handle higher ground very well at that level the higher res give much better idea e.g.

maquiladora

Up to 100m possible on high ground in the south. Much less on lower levels in most places.

Fairly wet but not exceptional. This was looking a lot more severe two days ago.

Villain

Yup rarely am I happy to see downgrades for extreme weather but in this instance I am very happy!

goodies

I can still see alot of patches of pink over parts of kerry :eek:

sideswipe

Villain wrote: »

Yup rarely am I happy to see downgrades for extreme weather but in this instance I am very happy!

+1

Have been thinking the last couple of days why is it that part of me always wants the weather to get worse when it's bad.
If it's windy I want a proper storm. If it's raining hard I want it biblical with floods. If it's snowing I want it waist high.

Seeing people in tears, homes flooded. Business destroyed. People awake all night preying it's not inching towards their front door has me repenting my ways.
Hope all this crap weather fecks right off and people can get back to normal quickly and enjoy a happy christmas.

Rant (to myself) over.

Natonstan

sideswipe wrote: »

+1

Have been thinking the last couple of days why is it that part of me always wants the weather to get worse when it's bad.
If it's windy I want a proper storm. If it's raining hard I want it biblical with floods. If it's snowing I want it waist high.

Seeing people in tears, homes flooded. Business destroyed. People awake all night preying it's not inching towards their front door has me repenting my ways.
Hope all this crap weather fecks right off and people can get back to normal quickly and enjoy a happy christmas.

Rant (to myself) over.

Probably linked to childhood when we'd be praying for the snow to keep coming so the schools would be shut... or maybe we're all just a bit weird

Swiftly

Agree about the flooding but give me a violent windstrom or waist deep snow any day

The12thMan

More Water...

munsterlegend

Natonstan wrote: »

Probably linked to childhood when we'd be praying for the snow to keep coming so the schools would be shut... or maybe we're all just a bit weird

It's human nature. Bad news sells newspapers and people like to discuss out of the ordinary stuff. The weather will do what it does and all people can do is put up as much flood prevention as possible.

km79

delighted the way this has gone
was very stressful
would have been as well off if I was oblivious like most "normal" people
keep up the good works guys!

maquiladora

aisling86

What does this mean for the south? I wouldnt be very good with reading charts like this.

StewartGriffin

If it's been so unpredictable until now how come we're all so sure it's gone away now? Where did it go? North over the top of us or did it just fade out over the Atlantic?

hikenut

This is invaluable information. Lots of places I like to hike will be challenging to get to, while these floods are occurring.

Keep up the sterling work

RobertKK

StewartGriffin wrote: »

If it's been so unpredictable until now how come we're all so sure it's gone away now? Where did it go? North over the top of us or did it just fade out over the Atlantic?

It hasn't gone away, the south of the country will still be very wet.

RobertKK

Swiftly wrote: »

Agree about the flooding but give me a violent windstrom or waist deep snow any day

Living on an exposed hill, a windstorm from the wrong direction can be devastating, I have seen on a few occasions roofs being ripped off sheds and lucky no one was in the wrong area when it happened.
Heavy snow can collapse roofs too and deaths from cold.
Floods are no fun for people, but no extreme weather is fun if you are the one affected.

KathleenF

RobertKK wrote: »

Living on an exposed hill, a windstorm from the wrong direction can be devastating, I have seen on a few occasions roofs being ripped off sheds and lucky no one was in the wrong area when it happened.
Heavy snow can collapse roofs too and deaths from cold.
Floods are no fun for people, but no extreme weather is fun if you are the one affected.

No one wants people to be hurt in any way by extreme weather, I think it's fair to say. At the risk of stating the obvious though, wishing/wanting/hoping for extreme weather (snow/storms/etc) to happen or not happen has zero influence on whether it will occur or not.

PS - I'm only ever in the weather forum from November - February as an interested lurker, so will add my sincere thanks to all (knowledgeable and otherwise!) who contribute. Have put off driving Dublin - Kerry return this weekend as result of reading this thread and others.

maquiladora

12Z HIRLAM still bringing the rain further north than the other models.