Next (2016) Gov: FF, FG & Lab? (Bankers Gov?)

Slydice

Original Thread has been Archived in the Forum reorgisation.

Anyway.. Sunday Times Behaviour and Attitudes survey this weekend:
http://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2015/1212/753165-opinion-poll/

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Fine Gael|Fianna Fáil|Ind./Others|Sinn Fein|Labour
Poll|31|19|24|17|8

That totals 99. Hrmmm.. Well shur..

FG/FF/Lab are still at 58%. Still well into the majority.

FG/FF by themselves are down to 50%.

The support chart now with the line on the way back down:


Paddy Power odds show the Top is still FG/FF, 2 is also still FG/Lab but 3 is now FG Minority. The odds are:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 11/8
FG Minority 5/2
FG/Lab 9/2

Looks like their money is still on FG and FF. Interesting that FG Minority has moved into second place since last time. FG/Lab now at 3rd place.

FG/FF/Lab has moved out to 16/1 although FG/FF/Any other party(s) is 4th at 8/1

Less than 4 months left now from what I understand. I'm guessing they're waiting till after the holidays to set a date.

BoJack Horseman

What is a "bankers government"?

hmmm

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

What is a "bankers government"?

It's a corrupt and traitorous government that sold the proud and independent hibernian nation of Ireland to the foreign bankers when the what nation needed most was the proud and independent gaels to rise up as one and strike a blow for our freedom like the patriots of '16 and '98 and when will we shout "no to foreign bankers and foreign games" on our four green fields oh when will fermanagh be returned to the mother country all because of these traitorous spliveens and lickspittles in the corrupt government that sold us to the bankers oh for what did the fenian men of 16 die for this is this what we were sold out to the bankers i saw a video on youtube about money and money creation and debt godhelpus debt is a creation of the spleeven bankers who we were all sold out to be these west brit scum in government when will we elect sinn fein wake up ireland?

Presumably it's something like that.

Zubeneschamali

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

What is a "bankers government"?

I think it may be rhyming slang...

Slydice

Alright, Red C poll for the Sunday Business Post taken at the beginning of the week:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0116/760734-polls-show-fianna-fail-support-on-the-rise/

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Fine Gael|Ind./Others|Fianna Fáil|Sinn Fein|Labour
Poll|30|23|19|19|9

FG/FF/Lab are still at 58%. Holding steady with the majority.

FG/FF by themselves are down to 49%.

The support chart now with the line holding steady:


Paddy Power odds show the Top is still FG/FF, 2 is also still FG/Lab but 3 is now FG Minority. The odds are:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 13/8
FG/Lab 9/4
FG Minority 4/1

Looks like their money is still on FG and FF but weaker odds for it this time. Weaker odds for FG Minority which has moved to third place since last time. FG/Lab now at 2nd place.

FG/FF/Lab has moved out to 18/1 although FG/FF/Any other party(s) is still 4th but again weaker odds at 12/1

Less than 3 months left now from what I understand. Hard to imagine them waiting a lot longer to set a date.

Zubeneschamali

FF just had their Ard Fheis, and ruled out coalition with either FG or SF.

It's another 5 years of backbench irrelevance for them as a second-fiddle opposition party behind Sinn Fein.

glued

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

FF just had their Ard Fheis, and ruled out coalition with either FG or SF.

It's another 5 years of backbench irrelevance for them as a second-fiddle opposition party behind Sinn Fein.

I think people see quite clearly through their attempt at buying votes from certain demographics. I'm sick of constant election manifesto's trying to buy votes through welfare increases. Fine Gael seem like the only party trying to find a balance.

Scofflaw

I think the electorate may be disposed to give FG a go at running the economy during economic stability rather than as a crisis measure, just to see what they do.

If a "banker's government" consists of parties who supported the guarantee, though, it can involve anyone but Labour.

cordially,
Scofflaw

seamus

Yep, with FF out of the coalition race, its looking a pretty safe bet to be a FG-led coalition again. Probably like the last FF government, it'll be more of a mish-mash of FG/Lab + a few useful independents (or even Renua) to keep the numbers up. If FF could gather a massive chunk of the independents on their side, they could potentially swing it, but it would be a short-live mess. Some articles have suggested that Labour could be kingmakers for FF, but that would literally be signing their death warrant. Come the election after this one, Labour would be finished.

The sad thing is that a FG/Lab/Ind coalition is basically the best arrangement that can be made out of what we've got in the Dail. It has the most credibility and best track record out of all the others. Which is saying something.

Lockstep

If we end up with another FG/Lab government, I'll be happy out. It's the best option we have. As uninspiring as they are, they're infinitely preferable to FF's sleaze or SF's outright hypocrisy.

For ever odd

Enda's speech at the Ard Fheis, has put FG in with a fighting chance of an overall majority. While he failed to deliver the passion that the script writer had probably envisoned, the message came across well (if slightly condescending), and the electorate will want to believe.


The good people of this nation have been consistently let down by gobeen politics and politicians since the foundation of the state.

It is now time for the next government to recognise that the people of this Country matured 3-4 decades ago and are sick to the back teeth of teenage governance.

To all parties, a word to the wise, get it wrong this time.... prepare to face an unprecedented revolution.

Zubeneschamali

For ever odd wrote: »

It is now time for the next government to recognise that the people of this Country matured 3-4 decades ago and are sick to the back teeth of teenage governance.

When Baldy Noonan tried that line in 2002, just 14 years ago, FG got their worst kicking ever from your "mature" electorate, and we got a weasel in a suit leading FG ever since as a direct result.

Bongalongherb

Lockstep wrote: »

If we end up with another FG/Lab government, I'll be happy out. It's the best option we have. As uninspiring as they are, they're infinitely preferable to FF's sleaze or SF's outright hypocrisy.

There is not a hope in hell that Labour will be in government in a few weeks as that is impossible at this stage. It looks more like a FF & Sinn Féin coalition. Yes it sounds crazy but I have a good feeling that this will be the case. A lot of folk are going to get one hell of a shock.

K-9

Bongalongherb wrote: »

There is not a hope in hell that Labour will be in government in a few weeks as that is impossible at this stage. It looks more like a FF & Sinn Féin coalition. Yes it sounds crazy but I have a good feeling that this will be the case. A lot of folk are going to get one hell of a shock.

The problem is the way the PR and electoral system works. FG/Lab and FF/SF could easily end up on about the same vote share, say 40% each but the Government would have 15/20 seats more, because, well, transfers.

No transfer pact and both don't attract them much.

As for Labour, damned if they do, damned if they don't. If SF are the main opposition party I think they'll get forgotten in opposition.

keane2097

Genuine question, what's being referred to with "teenage governance"?

Zubeneschamali

Bongalongherb wrote: »

A lot of folk are going to get one hell of a shock.

Especially the ones who vote SF.

Slydice

It's the month of the election! Lots of opinion polls this weekend.

Going with The Sunday Business Post/Red C poll as it's the first listed here:
http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0206/765956-opinion-polls-sunday/

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Fine Gael|Ind./Others|Fianna Fáil|Sinn Fein|Labour
Poll|31|25|17|17|10

That puts FG/FF/Lab at 58%. Holding steady with the majority.
Though the other two polls put them lower at 56% and 55%.

FG/FF by themselves are down one to 48%.

The support chart now with the line holding steady:

uploaded chart to imgur as boards attachment doesn't seem to work:


Paddy Power odds show the Top is still FG/FF, 2 is also still FG/Lab and 3 is still FG Minority. The odds are:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 13/8
FG/Lab 11/4
FG Minority 9/1

Looks like their money is stronger on FG and FF this time. Weaker odds for FG/Lab and FG Minority since last time.

FG/FF/Lab has moved out further to 22/1 and FG/FF/Any other party(s) is also weaker at 14/1

Well now, the result remains to be seen but certainly Looking like the strongest parties for doing deals with bankers (FF & FG) are in very strong positions.

Interesting times.

BoJack Horseman

Did we find out yet what a 'bankers' government is?

Slydice

I think yesterday was the first time since the election that just the 3 voted as one group together.

Here are the TDs who voted to take another eight days off from the Dáil
What’s another week?
Wed 6:59 PM
http://www.thejournal.ie/tds-vote-to-delay-debate-april-2016-2702039-Apr2016/

As you can see, the division was fairly simple.

Every TD from Sinn Féin, AAA-PBP, the Social Democrats, the Green Party and almost all Independents – 56 in total – voted against delaying Dáil debate until 14 April.

Every TD from Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Labour – 100 in total – voted to wait until next Thursday to meet again.

Here’s how it turned out:

Source: Click here for a larger image

Interesting.

Fr Tod Umptious

Slydice wrote: »

I think yesterday was the first time since the election that just the 3 voted as one group together.

Here are the TDs who voted to take another eight days off from the Dáil
What’s another week?
Wed 6:59 PM
http://www.thejournal.ie/tds-vote-to-delay-debate-april-2016-2702039-Apr2016/




Interesting.

You don't think it had anything to do with making time for talks on forming a government or anything ?

Godge

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

You don't think it had anything to do with making time for talks on forming a government or anything ?

I think it is clear - some TDs are interested in being the loudest empty vessel in the house without a clue, others are interested in forming a government.

Slydice

Interesting. They did it again for this weeks adjournment.

Just the 3 voting together as one group .. again

Click here for a larger image

Business of Dáil (Continued) Thursday, 14 April 2016
http://oireachtasdebates.oireachtas.ie/debates%20authoring/debateswebpack.nsf/takes/dail2016041400006?opendocument

Question put: "That the Dáil on its rising today shall adjourn until 10.30 a.m. on Wednesday, 20 April 2016."

The Dáil divided: Tá, 100; Níl, 55.

Slydice

Well, I was wrong :pac:
Enda Kenny wins narrow vote to continue as Irish prime minister
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/84e9529e-1396-11e6-839f-2922947098f0.html#axzz47tWVUH92

this time at the head of a minority government

T'was an interesting thread to follow all the same.

I imagine there might be some happy folks going to cash in on their February bets today

Slydice wrote: »

FG Minority 9/1