Property Market 2016

gaius c

Bob24 wrote: »

Agreed, but most people who need that kind of deposit will be in Dublin, and while I don't have the numbers for Dublin I assume if the national figure is 14% the Dublin one is quite higher?

(not saying everything is al-right btw - just wondering how bad it is :-))

I don't think that's a "safe" assumption to make. It might be right but it could also be wildly wrong as there are significant numbers of lower waged households in Dublin too.

Cuddlesworth

gaius c wrote: »

All households in the state. I would expect the number of 30-40 households on 100k+ to be significantly lower than 14% of that age group because they are still early in their careers.

I'd say its higher then you think, with dual earners just above average industrial versus the more common single earner households of later generations.

PhoenixParker

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

I'd say its higher then you think, with dual earners just above average industrial versus the more common single earner households of later generations.

This.

The CSO statistics for individuals working show an average income per week of E700 for an average of 32 hours work. That's an average across 1.625million working individuals.

Allowing two average individuals working in a 30-40 year old household that's an income of E72,800 a year as an approximate average for dual income households across the country.

With higher Dublin wages and taking the university cohort who will also have higher wages there is a sizeable group of people in the aforementioned E100K per annum DINK Dublin cohort.

SarahMollie

PhoenixParker wrote: »

With higher Dublin wages and taking the university cohort who will also have higher wages there is a sizeable group of people in the aforementioned E100K per annum DINK Dublin cohort.

Can't wait to go home and tell my boyfriend we're Dublin DINKs! Oh the eyerolls this will prompt!

Is this the evolution of the Yuppie?

PhoenixParker

SarahMollie wrote: »

Can't wait to go home and tell my boyfriend we're Dublin DINKs! Oh the eyerolls this will prompt!

Is this the evolution of the Yuppie?

It's been around a while. Not a phrase I particularly like but it works.
It's a very enjoyable position to be in I have to say.

mooreman09

Shedite27 wrote: »

That's not approval, that's Approval In Principle, which is worthless. I got one for silly money last year from TSB. It's only once they've crunched the figures and go through the documents you submitted that you know what you are really approved for.

Yep - I said it is subject to Bank statements supporting our savings and Salary certs confirming our salary. Which we have. They have sent our approval to our solicitors also. I'm fully aware of what our Approval in Principle means and where I currently am in the purchase of our house.

Sure if you are going on your terms - you aren't mortgage approved until you drawdown.

Trust me, we could easily have borrowed a 4.5 times our salaries from the conversations we had. They are selling again.

SarahMollie

PhoenixParker wrote: »

It's been around a while. Not a phrase I particularly like but it works.
It's a very enjoyable position to be in I have to say.

Its just such a silly word. I think Estate Agent speak is almost up there with Middle Management speak.

"Going Forward, we will be DINKs who Think outside the box!"

SarahMollie

mooreman09 wrote: »

Trust me, we could easily have borrowed a 4.5 times our salaries from the conversations we had. They are selling again.

I got 4.5 times my salary about a year ago wtihout really asking. That was because they were only assessing my fixed income but knew from my bank statements that i get bonuses in my line of work, so 3.5 would be extremely low versus what I actually earn.

Actually when I first applied in 2011, (i earned a bit less then) they offered me 5x no problem. This was when "no one was able to get a mortgage".

Even in the height of the recession, they can recognise people who are a good risk. They need performing mortgages on their books and should be competing for this business.

Would I be right in saying that your financials are pretty solid Mooreman?

Shedite27

mooreman09 wrote: »

Yep - I said it is subject to Bank statements supporting our savings and Salary certs confirming our salary. Which we have. They have sent our approval to our solicitors also. I'm fully aware of what our Approval in Principle means and where I currently am in the purchase of our house.

Sure if you are going on your terms - you aren't mortgage approved until you drawdown.

Trust me, we could easily have borrowed a 4.5 times our salaries from the conversations we had. They are selling again.

In my books there's 3 stages:

1. Approval in principle (when they try to sell everything to you)
2. Letter of offer (where they have reviewed your details and "approve" you)
3. Drawdown (which is just withdrawing the money from the bank.

If they offered you a letter of offer for more than you expected it's a good reflection on your finances, fair play.

gaius c

PhoenixParker wrote: »

This.

The CSO statistics for individuals working show an average income per week of E700 for an average of 32 hours work. That's an average across 1.625million working individuals.

Allowing two average individuals working in a 30-40 year old household that's an income of E72,800 a year as an approximate average for dual income households across the country.

With higher Dublin wages and taking the university cohort who will also have higher wages there is a sizeable group of people in the aforementioned E100K per annum DINK Dublin cohort.

You conflating means and medians (the previous discussion) to come up with a fabricated scenario that supports your conclusion.

2.2 million households in the state (approx)
14% earn over 100k.
That's approx 310k households. That's for the entire state. The 30-40 age bracket of that is a smaller number again. Take another third off to account for non-Dublin 100k+ households.

The numbers don't add up to support the "suburban semi-D for €600-700k" market unless you have huge leverage or an ever growing FTB cohort willing to prop the pyramid up.

Neither of those is the case anymore. The 70's baby boom are all housed (and in negative equity) and the generation just behind them are smaller with the worst job prospects since the 80's.

And we know what's happening on the lending side.

gaius c

mooreman09 wrote: »

Yep - I said it is subject to Bank statements supporting our savings and Salary certs confirming our salary. Which we have. They have sent our approval to our solicitors also. I'm fully aware of what our Approval in Principle means and where I currently am in the purchase of our house.

Sure if you are going on your terms - you aren't mortgage approved until you drawdown.

Trust me, we could easily have borrowed a 4.5 times our salaries from the conversations we had. They are selling again.

And that is exactly why the CB rules are needed.

whiskeyman

So, here we are into March and still very little stock out there (specifically to Dublin anyway).
Anything that does come out seems very overpriced.
Sellers probably hoping to draw in some panic from buyers who need to move, and also trying to take advantage of possible increase in buyers coming out since new CB exceptions are being issued.

Bob24

whiskeyman wrote: »

So, here we are into March and still very little stock out there (specifically to Dublin anyway).
Anything that does come out seems very overpriced.
Sellers probably hoping to draw in some panic from buyers who need to move, and also trying to take advantage of possible increase in buyers coming out since new CB exceptions are being issued.

I'd say potential sellers are also holding off hoping for the media and whichever government comes next to pressure the CBI until it relaxes lending rules.

gaius c

PhoenixParker wrote: »

This.

The CSO statistics for individuals working show an average income per week of E700 for an average of 32 hours work. That's an average across 1.625million working individuals.

Allowing two average individuals working in a 30-40 year old household that's an income of E72,800 a year as an approximate average for dual income households across the country.

With higher Dublin wages and taking the university cohort who will also have higher wages there is a sizeable group of people in the aforementioned E100K per annum DINK Dublin cohort.

And look what just appeared in my inbox.

Prosperity has plummeted for young adults in the rich world.
In the US, under-30s are now poorer than retired people.
In the UK, pensioner disposable income has grown prodigiously – three times as fast as the income of young people.
Millennials have suffered real terms losses in wages in the US, Italy, France, Spain, Germany and Canada and in some countries this was underway even before the 2008 financial crisis.

There's no yuppie cohort coming to the rescue of the property market because they don't exist and the banks are no longer allowed to help them over-extend themselves to buy over-priced property.

gaius c

whiskeyman wrote: »

So, here we are into March and still very little stock out there (specifically to Dublin anyway).
Anything that does come out seems very overpriced.
Sellers probably hoping to draw in some panic from buyers who need to move, and also trying to take advantage of possible increase in buyers coming out since new CB exceptions are being issued.

Yet prices are not rising thus implying that there's not that many buyers either.

SarahMollie

gaius c wrote: »

Yet prices are not rising thus implying that there's not that many buyers either.

I think it will take another year for the market to come back to some sort of "normal" following on from the CB rules.

Buyers are having to save for a really long time to get deposits together now. This is having an impact IMO.

Average deposit needed in Dublin is €51k.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/soaring-deposits-may-push-property-purchase-out-of-reach-for-many-1.2563156

gaius c

SarahMollie wrote: »

I think it will take another year for the market to come back to some sort of "normal" following on from the CB rules.

Buyers are having to save for a really long time to get deposits together now. This is having an impact IMO.

Average deposit needed in Dublin is €51k.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/soaring-deposits-may-push-property-purchase-out-of-reach-for-many-1.2563156

Or prices drop to what buyers can afford.
Funny that the article didn't mention that.

SarahMollie

gaius c wrote: »

Or prices drop to what buyers can afford.
Funny that the article didn't mention that.

Maybe in some areas where demand is weak, but I wouldnt count on it across the board.

Look at this place launching at the weekend:

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/glenamuck-road-carrickmines-dublin-18/3333443

Starting at €650k. A Rated, very good size and whatnot, but I still think its a lot of money for being halfway up the mountains!

The_Conductor

SarahMollie wrote: »

Maybe in some areas where demand is weak, but I wouldnt count on it across the board.

Look at this place launching at the weekend:

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/glenamuck-road-carrickmines-dublin-18/3333443

Starting at €650k. A Rated, very good size and whatnot, but I still think its a lot of money for being halfway up the mountains!

They've lowered the prices- they were POA- 750 to 825.
They are not for normal purchasers though- they're 3 storey 2500 sq feet properties in a private setting.

If you look down the road- Claremount direction- you'll see a few properties in the million Euro bracket- these are 'budget' properties in comparison.

Under no circumstance should a 'normal' person consider these properties to be any way representative of what a 'normal' asking price should be..........

Sleepy

What I'm seeing in Dublin is that unless you're prepared to move to the absolute outskirts of the county, the only areas you could buy a 3 bed for around the 250k mark are those where the majority of your neighbours will be in social housing and even at that, the third bedroom is likely to be a tiny box room. Not an appealing prospect to most to chain yourself to a 30 year debt to live somewhere your neighbours are living for nothing.

Michael D Not Higgins

Sleepy wrote: »

What I'm seeing in Dublin is that unless you're prepared to move to the absolute outskirts of the county, the only areas you could buy a 3 bed for around the 250k mark are those where the majority of your neighbours will be in social housing and even at that, the third bedroom is likely to be a tiny box room. Not an appealing prospect to most to chain yourself to a 30 year debt to live somewhere your neighbours are living for nothing.

In fairness, social housing isn't provided free of charge.

handlemaster

gaius c wrote: »

Or prices drop to what buyers can afford.
Funny that the article didn't mention that.

Do you really see prices falling now ?

Sleepy

For the majority it's nothing more than a nominal contribution out of the tenants welfare payments. Essentially a transfer of tax between the Dept of Welfare and a Local Authority. Sure, some are working and paying extremely low rents but that's not exactly the point I was making.

Most of us don't want to buy housing in areas that are predominantly social housing.

SarahMollie

The_Conductor wrote: »

They've lowered the prices- they were POA- 750 to 825.
They are not for normal purchasers though- they're 3 storey 2500 sq feet properties in a private setting.

If you look down the road- Claremount direction- you'll see a few properties in the million Euro bracket- these are 'budget' properties in comparison.

Under no circumstance should a 'normal' person consider these properties to be any way representative of what a 'normal' asking price should be..........

Oh of course these are not for typical FTB'ers but it goes to show that the developers think there are buyers out there at this level. Its quite a large development for houses of this size (42 units).

Actually I can think of another few developments in SCD (using this an an example as this is where I live) that are selling similarly big houses. Another one I'm interested in as a barometer is Stillorgan Gate, which I think has more of a mix of units (4 bed houses, 3 bed duplexes and 2 bed apartments) which is due to come on the market in a few months.

Hard to get a grasp on what a nice new 3 bed semi would cost in the area because i can't find any being built. The nearest I've seen have been in Stepaside.

mel123

The brother went to look at a house in Drumcondra (Dublin 9). It was a 'do-er upper'. Being in the business, he said he would have paid asking price for it, he thought it was worth it type house. Its currently 120k OVER the asking price. The advertised price wasnt a 'very low' price to gain interest, so i'm not really sure what that says about the market? Are people going crazy again i wonder.
Anyway just thought id share that story :-)

TOEJOE

Sleepy wrote: »

For the majority it's nothing more than a nominal contribution out of the tenants welfare payments. Essentially a transfer of tax between the Dept of Welfare and a Local Authority. Sure, some are working and paying extremely low rents but that's not exactly the point I was making.

Most of us don't want to buy housing in areas that are predominantly social housing.

While I partially agree with you many if not most people will be unable to buy a house in the future so social housing will have to be the norm.

The_Conductor

mel123 wrote: »

The brother went to look at a house in Drumcondra (Dublin 9). It was a 'do-er upper'. Being in the business, he said he would have paid asking price for it, he thought it was worth it type house. Its currently 120k OVER the asking price. The advertised price wasnt a 'very low' price to gain interest, so i'm not really sure what that says about the market? Are people going crazy again i wonder.
Anyway just thought id share that story :-)

What it says about the market- is there is sweet damn all for sale out there- and if something anyway habitable at all comes up- people will fight over it.......

Scarcity is driving this- nothing else........

whiskeyman

The_Conductor wrote: »

What it says about the market- is there is sweet damn all for sale out there- and if something anyway habitable at all comes up- people will fight over it.......

Scarcity is driving this- nothing else........

That's how I see it too.
And relaxing the CB rules won't help this, but will drive the madness of the fighting even worse.

The_Conductor

The penny really hasn't dropped- we need large quantities of good quality, well serviced, high density residential units in the greater Dublin area- asap. We do not need to build out- we need to build up.

SarahMollie

The_Conductor wrote: »

The penny really hasn't dropped- we need large quantities of good quality, well serviced, high density residential units in the greater Dublin area- asap. We do not need to build out- we need to build up.

+ totally agree.

Dublin already has far too much urban sprawl.

I'm also a fan of the CB rules. They're maybe a bit blunt, but property prices returning to where they were will only serve very few elite individuals, but will cripple the average Joe/Jane just looking to buy a house.