Property Market 2016

yqtwqxqm

All the pity seems to be for the FTBs.
Dont forget about the trader uppers too.
Without them trading up, the FTB market will suffer too.
So its all well and good giving incentives to the FTBs, but thats not really going to help very much if there are no houses in their price range on the market.

powerstar

Sleepy wrote: »

What I'm seeing in Dublin is that unless you're prepared to move to the absolute outskirts of the county, the only areas you could buy a 3 bed for around the 250k mark are those where the majority of your neighbours will be in social housing and even at that, the third bedroom is likely to be a tiny box room. Not an appealing prospect to most to chain yourself to a 30 year debt to live somewhere your neighbours are living for nothing.

I would agree with above quote. There is no decent properties around 250k.

Monife

yqtwqxqm wrote: »

All the pity seems to be for the FTBs.
Dont forget about the trader uppers too.
Without them trading up, the FTB market will suffer too.
So its all well and good giving incentives to the FTBs, but thats not really going to help very much if there are no houses in their price range on the market.

There's more pity for FTBs as others have houses already. I wouldn't be quick to offer any incentives to trader uppers, they are part of the problem that got us in this mess.

yqtwqxqm

Monife wrote: »

There's more pity for FTBs as others have houses already. I wouldn't be quick to offer any incentives to trader uppers, they are part of the problem that got us in this mess.

If they trade up then more properties become available in lower price ranges.
If they dont, then you are relying on new builds to supply the FTB end.

PhoenixParker

yqtwqxqm wrote: »

If they trade up then more properties become available in lower price ranges.
If they dont, then you are relying on new builds to supply the FTB end.

This is where I'm at too. I think a small incentive to trader uppers & trader downers could give the market a little push in the right direction. For one thing it might encourage people to actually trade the house instead of becoming "accidental" landlords. The incentive would only be available to those selling and subsequently buying a house within a certain time frame.

Alter_Ego

powerstar wrote: »

I would agree with above quote. There is no decent properties around 250k.

Yep, not even apartments

Cuddlesworth

yqtwqxqm wrote: »

If they trade up then more properties become available in lower price ranges.
If they dont, then you are relying on new builds to supply the FTB end.

If they trade up the number of available property's will remain roughly equal. All it will do is drive prices higher as more money will enter the market.

There is no trading down either, as apartments are considered bad for older people(completely understand why) and I don't see any nice detached 1-2 bed houses propping up anywhere. The house I'm in right now(2 bed detached Bungalow in South Dublin) has 2 to 3 letters a month through the door from elderly people asking if we are selling soon.

yqtwqxqm

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

If they trade up the number of available property's will remain roughly equal. All it will do is drive prices higher as more money will enter the market.

There is no trading down either, as apartments are considered bad for older people(completely understand why) and I don't see any nice detached 1-2 bed houses propping up anywhere. The house I'm in right now(2 bed detached Bungalow in South Dublin) has 2 to 3 letters a month through the door from elderly people asking if we are selling soon.

If people trade up, the more expensive houses are bought while their less expensive house are available.

Cuddlesworth

yqtwqxqm wrote: »

If people trade up, the more expensive houses are bought while their less expensive house are available.

In the context of incentives, you are simply adding more money to the process which will raise the price. Trade ups will happen regardless of incentives when required and affordable.

gaius c

No "incentives". It's just market interference that makes things worse.

Sleepy

I think there's an argument for incentives on development e.g. a preferentail rate of VAT on constructions costs which could help increase the number of / lower the price of new builds.

They need to be paired with "use it or lose it" property tax on landbanks though.

The_Conductor

Sleepy wrote: »

I think there's an argument for incentives on development e.g. a preferentail rate of VAT on constructions costs which could help increase the number of / lower the price of new builds.

They need to be paired with "use it or lose it" property tax on landbanks though.

I agree with you Sleepy- however, the single biggest impediment to builders/developers moving on sites- is finance. How can a development work on a financial basis- when the main pillar lending institutions are charging between 12 and 15% interest on all loans to developers. Hell- I can get an unsecured personal loan from Bank of Ireland on better terms- than a developer- at 10.5%.........

Reducing the VAT rate (and indeed- levies on developments for infrastructure etc) would reduce the headline price tag for prospective purchasers- however, they'd do absolutely nothing to ungum working capital for developers........

At the moment- lenders would rather give a PAYE employee (such as myself) an unsecured personal loan on more favourable terms than give a developer working capital- and this is not going to change in the short to medium term.

Developers do not have access to finance to build developments- I don't have a solution to this issue- but allowing the quid-pro-quo continue certainly isn't healthy or beneficial to anyone.

Ush1

Sleepy wrote: »

What I'm seeing in Dublin is that unless you're prepared to move to the absolute outskirts of the county, the only areas you could buy a 3 bed for around the 250k mark are those where the majority of your neighbours will be in social housing and even at that, the third bedroom is likely to be a tiny box room. Not an appealing prospect to most to chain yourself to a 30 year debt to live somewhere your neighbours are living for nothing.

Where would you define the outskirts of the county? Tallaght for one you could get a 3 bed semi for 250k and the majority of your neighbours would not be in social housing.

Sleepy

Sorry Ush1, I've been looking North Side so Tallaght hasn't been on my radar. Would you really get one of the better parts of Tallaght at that price level though?

SarahMollie

The_Conductor wrote: »

I agree with you Sleepy- however, the single biggest impediment to builders/developers moving on sites- is finance. How can a development work on a financial basis- when the main pillar lending institutions are charging between 12 and 15% interest on all loans to developers. Hell- I can get an unsecured personal loan from Bank of Ireland on better terms- than a developer- at 10.5%.........

This is indeed quite punitive. Instead of offering incentives per say, I think the govt should be using NAMA or some other vehicle to issue better value loans for developers to be used against approved projects that are deemed strategically important.

The money comes on condition that the developers are building the right type of units in the right areas, with good build quality - ie delivering a quality housing stock for years to come. This should include some quality, spacious high-rise in central locations and some 3/4 bed semis in suburbs as these property types are more in demand.

If developers then want to go and build 5/6 bed houses etc, then they can do so under normal commercial terms.

Bob24

SarahMollie wrote: »

This is indeed quite punitive. Instead of offering incentives per say, I think the govt should be using NAMA or some other vehicle to issue better value loans for developers to be used against approved projects that are deemed strategically important.

The money comes on condition that the developers are building the right type of units in the right areas, with good build quality - ie delivering a quality housing stock for years to come. This should include some quality, spacious high-rise in central locations and some 3/4 bed semis in suburbs as these property types are more in demand.

If developers then want to go and build 5/6 bed houses etc, then they can do so under normal commercial terms.

Would be great ... but unfortunately is unlikely to happen :-( Instead the next government will be busy renaming Irish Water and subsiding water charges for the next 5 years so that households can "save" 200 euros per year until the next election where they will be expected to vote for the politicians who gave them "free" water using their own tax money (the media and a couple of hard core protesters seem to have decided this is a much more pressing issue than a housing crisis whic his costign many households much more than 200 quids per year in ever rising rents or mortgage repayments for overpriced properties). Sad lack of long term vision for the country :-(

Cuddlesworth

Bob24 wrote: »

Would be great ... but unfortunately is unlikely to happen :-( Instead the next government will be busy renaming Irish Water and subsiding water charges for the next 5 years so that households can "save" 200 euros per year until the next election where they will be expected to vote for the politicians who gave them "free" water using their own tax money (the media and a couple of hard core protesters seem to have decided this is a much more pressing issue than a housing crisis whic his costign many households much more than 200 quids per year in ever rising rents or mortgage repayments for overpriced properties). Sad lack of long term vision for the country :-(

Not sure if that will happen but I get the impression that most who voted for the "no water tax" tend not to pay any taxes.

Ush1

Sleepy wrote: »

Sorry Ush1, I've been looking North Side so Tallaght hasn't been on my radar. Would you really get one of the better parts of Tallaght at that price level though?

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/35-heatherview-avenue-aylesbury-tallaght-dublin-24/3492071

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/14-parkhill-west-kilnamanagh-tallaght-dublin-24/3472142

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/37-heatherview-lawns-tallaght-dublin-24/3416277

Old Bawn, Aylesbury and Kilnmanagh would be considered nice parts. Mature and settled. I live in Aylesbury myself. I would say definitely worth taking a look anyway.

Only problems I ever encounter is the litter around the shops but you see that in a lot of areas.

casheltipp

I think the media (indo) has everybody hyping up prices again.

In reality there's still plenty of affordability out there. Look outside the box. (Why everyone wants to live in Dublin 4 (bore) is beyond me. The new Capital Rules are a good thing for long term bubble protection. House prices are already falling in Dublin and should fall further due to the new Capital Rules.

When I bought my House 10 years ago, Griffith Road, Finglas, myself and my partner needed a 40k deposit, things today are no different.

Plenty of decent houses in Dublin sub 250k
myhome.ie/residential/dublin/property-for-sale?maxprice=250000&minbeds=2&minsize=80

ckblackrock

casheltipp wrote: »

I think the media (indo) has everybody hyping up prices again.

In reality there's still plenty of affordability out there. Look outside the box. (Why everyone wants to live in Dublin 4 (bore) is beyond me. The new Capital Rules are a good thing for long term bubble protection. House prices are already falling in Dublin and should fall further due to the new Capital Rules.

When I bought my House 10 years ago, Griffith Road, Finglas, myself and my partner needed a 40k deposit, things today are no different.

Plenty of decent houses in Dublin sub 250k
myhome.ie/residential/dublin/property-for-sale?maxprice=250000&minbeds=2&minsize=80

Great to see someone talking sense for a change. The idea that you could buy a house without spending several years saving is a product of the mad lending and easy credit that led to the bust. As for high rents - anyone under 40 has no idea what rent gouging is, when students queued for hours for the privilege of renting an overpriced damp and grotty bedsit with smelly shared bathroom and a cupboard in the corner called a "kitchen". If high deposits keep prices down, then buyers will win in the end.

gaius c

Sleepy wrote: »

Sorry Ush1, I've been looking North Side so Tallaght hasn't been on my radar. Would you really get one of the better parts of Tallaght at that price level though?

Not really no. Bancroft is well above that price level. A good spec one recently went for 360k or 365k I think. Moderate spec ones would be 330k-ish.

Bob24

ckblackrock wrote: »

Great to see someone talking sense for a change. The idea that you could buy a house without spending several years saving is a product of the mad lending and easy credit that led to the bust. As for high rents - anyone under 40 has no idea what rent gouging is, when students queued for hours for the privilege of renting an overpriced damp and grotty bedsit with smelly shared bathroom and a cupboard in the corner called a "kitchen". If high deposits keep prices down, then buyers will win in the end.

I think most people on this thread agree that thinking you can buy a great house without a significant deposit is silly. What some would question is whether it is true that the there are "plenty of decent homes available for less than 250k". I would personally say that even regardless of budget, saying there are plenty of decent homes available for sale in Dublin is quite questionable.

On rents, does the fact that people had a hard time before justify doing the same thing to newer generations?

Sleepy

casheltipp wrote: »

I think the media (indo) has everybody hyping up prices again.

In reality there's still plenty of affordability out there. Look outside the box. (Why everyone wants to live in Dublin 4 (bore) is beyond me. The new Capital Rules are a good thing for long term bubble protection. House prices are already falling in Dublin and should fall further due to the new Capital Rules.

When I bought my House 10 years ago, Griffith Road, Finglas, myself and my partner needed a 40k deposit, things today are no different.

Plenty of decent houses in Dublin sub 250k
myhome.ie/residential/dublin/property-for-sale?maxprice=250000&minbeds=2&minsize=80

A 2 bed house isn't exactly a family home and most of the 3+ beds are either in crap neighbourhoods, really only a 2 bed + box room or require 40/50k sunk into them (which is a fairly big ask of a FTB scraping together the circa 35k they need to buy at this price level)

I think our ideas of "decent houses" are quite far off TBH. I'm not expecting to buy in Clontarf or Malahide at that level but a 3 bedroom family home in an area where you wouldn't be afraid to let your children play on the green shouldn't be out of the question for a family earning 65/70k a year...

Ush1

Sleepy wrote: »

A 2 bed house isn't exactly a family home and most of the 3+ beds are either in crap neighbourhoods, really only a 2 bed + box room or require 40/50k sunk into them (which is a fairly big ask of a FTB scraping together the circa 35k they need to buy at this price level)

I think our ideas of "decent houses" are quite far off TBH. I'm not expecting to buy in Clontarf or Malahide at that level but a 3 bedroom family home in an area where you wouldn't be afraid to let your children play on the green shouldn't be out of the question for a family earning 65/70k a year...

Well you would either have to get a smaller house/apartment or work on those sensitivities.

Where are you expecting to buy a 3 bed semi for 250k?

casheltipp

Point taken for most on the list about the 2 bed + box not suitable for a family home

Two areas of decent value below (no issues from my own experiences with properties near by in each location)
(Drimnagh House would need an extension but has room at the back)

myhome.ie/residential/brochure/113-ferndale-avenue-glasnevin-dublin-11/3344988

myhome.ie/residential/brochure/30-dromard-road-drimnagh-dublin-12/3484306

Sleepy

Ush1 wrote: »

Well you would either have to get a smaller house/apartment or work on those sensitivities.

Where are you expecting to buy a 3 bed semi for 250k?

I've yet to see an Irish apartment I'd consider a family home and not wanting to live in a ****hole is hardly "sensitive".

From what I can see, our best option is to find older properties a bit further out while avoiding the likes of Balbriggan (which is a shame as it's one of the few areas that has decent sized properties at reasonable prices).

Bob24

Also asking prices on MyHome or Daft don't mean much in terms of actual selling price. Most houses in that range are be priced to attract as many bidders as possible and sell well above asking price. The only way to have a decent idea of actual market selling prices is to view and bid on properties (the PPR would be more accurate that myhome/daft in terms of real selling price, but won't tell you how large/decent the property was and won't always accurately tell whether there was some kind of deal to sell below market price for some reason).

Ush1

Sleepy wrote: »

I've yet to see an Irish apartment I'd consider a family home and not wanting to live in a ****hole is hardly "sensitive".

From what I can see, our best option is to find older properties a bit further out while avoiding the likes of Balbriggan (which is a shame as it's one of the few areas that has decent sized properties at reasonable prices).

Again, depends on what you would call a sh*thole. I can see houses that IMO would suit your criteria.

You're competing with many couples making well over 100k in Dublin.

Sleepy

Oh, believe me, I'm all too aware of that competition right now.

There's the odd needle in the haystack alright, going to see a few more places this weekend so fingers crossed. Just getting a bit frustrated with the the false addresses (Edenmore being put up as Raheny, Ballymun as Glasnevin etc.), the poor state of much of what is on offer, the properties with a reasonable asking price that they expect to get 50/60k more than etc. while al we see in the media is whining that the central bank's lending rules are a problem (rather than the solution they actually are) without even the slightest suggestion that the myriad supply side issues be addresssed etc.

impr0v

mel123 wrote: »

The brother went to look at a house in Drumcondra (Dublin 9). It was a 'do-er upper'. Being in the business, he said he would have paid asking price for it, he thought it was worth it type house. Its currently 120k OVER the asking price. The advertised price wasnt a 'very low' price to gain interest, so i'm not really sure what that says about the market? Are people going crazy again i wonder.
Anyway just thought id share that story :-)

Do you mind me asking what price bracket this house was/is in?