Property Market 2016

RandomAccess

The near term picture is mired in fog, would it make any sense to look further down the line?
For example how much new construction is coming on?
All of the Developments that I have seen which are delivering houses are Nama backed developments such as Millers Glen and others.

I've not seen any major new schemes recently announced, other than some with 4~6 houses and priced to the mid/high end of the market.

mirrorwall14

RandomAccess wrote: »

The near term picture is mired in fog, would it make any sense to look further down the line?
For example how much new construction is coming on?
All of the Developments that I have seen which are delivering houses are Nama backed developments such as Millers Glen and others.

I've not seen any major new schemes recently announced, other than some with 4~6 houses and priced to the mid/high end of the market.

There's a fair bit of building in north Kildare. I've seen estates under construction in Kilcock, Maynooth, kill and Celbridge

OttoPilot

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

There's a fair bit of building in north Kildare. I've seen estates under construction in Kilcock, Maynooth, kill and Celbridge

Plenty of building in maynooth alright, 3, 4 and 5 bedrooms. Haven't noticed any in Leixlip, where's the building in celbridge?

Couple of small developments off the Maynooth Road in Celbridge. Basically old houses with massive gardens which are about to become eight/ten-house estates. Hawthorn Gate for example. Hazelwood nearly finished. Chelmsford is finished but still an ad up on MyHome so must be a few left.

No massive estates on the horizon that I can think of. Lots of houses going up opposite Tesco in Maynooth and more zoned land along there. Also plans for an estate between Rockfield and the Educate Together and ongoing plans for further development between Griffin Rath and Lidl. Plus Hayfield selling now.

Most new houses have great energy rating but suffer from tiny and overlooked gardens, limited parking and minimal green space. People still paying premium prices for houses 20-30 years old i.e. Not so old as to need total rewiring etc. but old enough not to have Celtic Tiger era estate layout.

PhoenixParker

There's a fair bit of building taking place around Dublin, but unless you live in the immediate vicinity of most of the housing developments you probably won't really be aware of them.

This is a great summary list:
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1895989

Dublin 15 and a number of the other outer Dublin suburbs have hundreds and hundreds of houses either under construction or recently approved and about to start. Still probably not enough, but far more then I thought before seeing the list.

mirrorwall14

On top of the current builds there is also planning applications in for 79 houses on Thornhill road (Celbridge) and for 8 at Oakley gardens

Bob24

PhoenixParker wrote: »

There's a fair bit of building taking place around Dublin, but unless you live in the immediate vicinity of most of the housing developments you probably won't really be aware of them.

This is a great summary list:
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1895989

Dublin 15 and a number of the other outer Dublin suburbs have hundreds and hundreds of houses either under construction or recently approved and about to start. Still probably not enough, but far more then I thought before seeing the list.

Interesting list. I live in Grand Canal Docks and did notice there was some work going on in the area, but not that much. Prices will probably be fairly unachievable for most people though. I know the location is especially high profile but as far as I remember the new block at 55 Percy Place which got released recently is a combination of large 1 bed and 2 bed apartments and they are asking between 750k and 1.25 million for them. Not the kind of development which will solve the housing crisis ...

Sleepy

All development will alleviate the crisis tbh. The people who'll be buying 750k apartments aren't currently living at home with Mammy and Daddy, they're probably living in cheaper apartments / houses elsewhere in the city which will be moved into by people currenly living in cheaper apartments / house shares elsewhere in the city and so on...

Bob24

Sleepy wrote: »

All development will alleviate the crisis tbh. The people who'll be buying 750k apartments aren't currently living at home with Mammy and Daddy, they're probably living in cheaper apartments / houses elsewhere in the city which will be moved into by people currenly living in cheaper apartments / house shares elsewhere in the city and so on...

Yes agree it's all good to take. Though I have to say I am a bit curious as who would be paying 750k for a 1-bed, regardless of the location. Event with the high rents, it doesn't seem like you could get enough to justify the asset price to me (especially with the level of taxation for landlords). And if it is a place to live, cases where a 1 bed is the best value for money might exist (maybe someone very wealthy who wants an extra place to stay around town on top of their main larger residence out of town), but I think for most poeple wit ha 750k budget this is not what they would be looking for.

draiochtanois

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Sleepy

Bob24 wrote:

Though I have to say I am a bit curious as who would be paying 750k for a 1-bed

A ****ing moron imo.

Never underestimate the capacity for human stupidity, however.

Bob24

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

What size are they? Because that is another factor in pricing,[/quote]

I think they are quoting around 75sqm for the 1 beds.

Michael D Not Higgins

Where's the source of the 750k for a one bed?

All I can find is the selling price of the plot for 1.7m. If we take that and add building costs of what the CFI list (I know, I know) of 250k for a two bed and add a generous 20% margin it should come out around 400k per 1 bed apartment and maybe 500-550 per 2 bed.

PhoenixParker

Just looked at the Percy Place brochure there - http://www.55percyplace.ie/.
There seems to be only one one bed and it's 56sqm. If that's E750k it be crazy, but in general the other apartments are big and well specc'd.
(Not to justify the price they're asking, but they are top end of the market apartments).

I wouldn't expect those 12 apartments to have a huge impact, though as Sleepy says every bit helps.
Things like Project Trinity (490 apartments), the two on Hanover Quay (140 apartments), Charlemont Street (257) apartments should have some impact in that general area though.

SarahMollie

Bob24 wrote: »

I think they are quoting around 75sqm for the 1 beds.

TBF thats very big for a 1 bed.

Most 2 beds are barely that size in the suburbs, and certainly not in town.

If they're 56sqm, then yes, that would be outrageous IMO.

Michael D Not Higgins

PhoenixParker wrote: »

Just looked at the Percy Place brochure there - http://www.55percyplace.ie/.
There seems to be only one one bed and it's 56sqm. If that's E750k it be crazy, but in general the other apartments are big and well specc'd.
(Not to justify the price they're asking, but they are top end of the market apartments).

I wouldn't expect those 12 apartments to have a huge impact, though as Sleepy says every bit helps.
Things like Project Trinity (490 apartments), the two on Hanover Quay (140 apartments), Charlemont Street (257) apartments should have some impact in that general area though.

Oh are they renumbering 53 as 55? With 12 apartments my maths comes out to 500k average per apartment, so maybe as high as 750k for the 3 bed and as low as 350k for the one bed.

If they take in 12m across the 12 apartments, that's 6m extra profit or 120% margin.

Bob24

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

Where's the source of the 750k for a one bed?

I've seen the figure a few times in the IT. Here's one of the links: http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/inside-55-percy-place-dublin-s-new-luxury-apartments-1.2512371

KlausFlouride

Bizarre, they're tiny, no garden and the mgt fees must be eye watering.

Michael D Not Higgins

Bob24 wrote: »

I've seen the figure a few times in the IT. Here's one of the links: http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/inside-55-percy-place-dublin-s-new-luxury-apartments-1.2512371

Ah now I understand, this is a separate development to 53 which is at the other end of the street. I don't know what the land cost of this site was but they're certainly making a killing from those prices.

Bob24

Michael D Not Higgins wrote: »

they're certainly making a killing from those prices.

Yes, if they are finding buyers ... I'm quite curious about it and will be checking the property register in a few months.

Bob24

PhoenixParker wrote: »

I wouldn't expect those 12 apartments to have a huge impact, though as Sleepy says every bit helps.
Things like Project Trinity (490 apartments), the two on Hanover Quay (140 apartments), Charlemont Street (257) apartments should have some impact in that general area though.

Definitely. Capital Dock and the new Spencer Dock should also make a dent whenever they arrive.

Do we have any idea how long it usually takes between planning permission and completion?

The_Conductor

RandomAccess wrote: »

The near term picture is mired in fog, would it make any sense to look further down the line?
For example how much new construction is coming on?
All of the Developments that I have seen which are delivering houses are Nama backed developments such as Millers Glen and others.

I've not seen any major new schemes recently announced, other than some with 4~6 houses and priced to the mid/high end of the market.

The government has ringfenced 1.8 billion for constructing social housing between now and 2018- with a planned 2015-2016 spend of 700m. Its been delayed at local authority level- because they simply don't have the competency and skills necessary- to plan and organise the construction of the housing that they've been given the money to build (despite DPER giving them 600 additional staff (planners, surveyors etc).

So- it is coming down the road- in quantity- however- don't hold your breath.

MrMorooka

PhoenixParker wrote: »

There's a fair bit of building taking place around Dublin, but unless you live in the immediate vicinity of most of the housing developments you probably won't really be aware of them.

This is a great summary list:
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1895989

Dublin 15 and a number of the other outer Dublin suburbs have hundreds and hundreds of houses either under construction or recently approved and about to start. Still probably not enough, but far more then I thought before seeing the list.

Great link. I personally have high hopes for the Charlemont St development, I'm hoping it might be affordable for me to get a place there and will have a gentrifying effect on the area, it's a great part of the city.

That's my main concern really, there are lots of nice apartments being built around Dublin, I just don't think I can afford any of them.

Bob24

MrMorooka wrote: »

Great link. I personally have high hopes for the Charlemont St development, I'm hoping it might be affordable for me to get a place there and will have a gentrifying effect on the area, it's a great part of the city.

That's my main concern really, there are lots of nice apartments being built around Dublin, I just don't think I can afford any of them.

What kind of prices are you hoping for for these?

MrMorooka

Bob24 wrote: »

What kind of prices are you hoping for for these?

Naively, 250k ish since that is the maximum I could afford as a single applicant within the next couple years and approaching a 100k deposit. But I have no idea, there is no pricing info or official brochures yet and they won't be ready until 2018. You can trawl through the planning if you want for hints, I don't have the time- it's all just an aspirational thing, right now I have no solid plans and don't even know if I will be staying in the country.

My thinking is just there are a lot of people living in flats around the South Circular/Portobello area who can obviously never afford to buy an actual house there(and you can't buy a flat in these kind of converted houses) so it would be great to have apartment blocks for people like that. I would be quite happy buying a quality 2 bed apartment in a great area like this as my forever home since it's unlikely I will have a family.

Bob24

MrMorooka wrote: »

Naively, 250k ish since that is the maximum I could afford as a single applicant within the next couple years and approaching a 100k deposit. But I have no idea, there is no pricing info or official brochures yet and they won't be ready until 2018. You can trawl through the planning if you want for hints, I don't have the time- it's all just an aspirational thing, right now I have no solid plans and don't even know if I will be staying in the country.

My thinking is just there are a lot of people living in flats around the South Circular/Portobello area who can obviously never afford to buy an actual house there(and you can't buy a flat in these kind of converted houses) so it would be great to have apartment blocks for people like that. I would be quite happy buying a quality 2 bed apartment in a great area like this as my forever home since it's unlikely I will have a family.

Really difficult to have an idea of how much these will be as there is nothing to compare them to... but I think 250k for a 2 bed would be quite a stretch. I might be wrong be I don't see how it could be less than 400k (and maybe more). Lets wait and see.

Bob24

Time to end Ireland’s ‘failed developer-led property market’

A very long article to say nothing but "there is the owner-occupied space where a lot of people are struggling to buy homes because of the Central Bank rule".

Grrr :mad:

Michael D Not Higgins

Bob24 wrote: »

Time to end Ireland’s ‘failed developer-led property market’

A very long article to say nothing but "there is the owner-occupied space where a lot of people are struggling to buy homes because of the Central Bank rule".

Grrr :mad:

He's a spokesman for the property industry. Of course he's going to scapegoat the mortgage rules instead of their own high costs and vested interests.

I'm glad the Central Bank have the stones to hold firm on the rules. No amount of lobbying from these groups will change their knowledge of the market and lending prudence. The problem will be the TDs who will try to bring in measures to circumvent the rules with buying incentives rather than tackling the supply.

The_Conductor

Bob24 wrote: »

Time to end Ireland’s ‘failed developer-led property market’

A very long article to say nothing but "there is the owner-occupied space where a lot of people are struggling to buy homes because of the Central Bank rule".

Grrr :mad:

Re-read the article- its actually quite balanced and well written.
The knux is more about supply being the biggest issue- and Mac Coille who made the quote about the Central Bank rules is actually in favour of the rules.
Threshold and the PRTB- who are also quoted in the article- concur with most of his findings. The argument is as much that we have an issue with attitudes towards buying- and the attitude that 'rent-is-dead-money' in this country- as it is anything else. The main theme- is to do with lack of supply being an issue- and how industry has failed to address this.

Have a re-read.

Its not a bad article at all......

Bob24

The_Conductor wrote: »

Re-read the article- its actually quite balanced and well written.
The knux is more about supply being the biggest issue- and Mac Coille who made the quote about the Central Bank rules is actually in favour of the rules.
Threshold and the PRTB- who are also quoted in the article- concur with most of his findings. The argument is as much that we have an issue with attitudes towards buying- and the attitude that 'rent-is-dead-money' in this country- as it is anything else. The main theme- is to do with lack of supply being an issue- and how industry has failed to address this.

Have a re-read.

Its not a bad article at all......

I guess what annoyed my is the title "Time to end Ireland’s ‘failed developer-led property market’", combined with the fact that the first view quoted is the one of the industry and the usual message: let people borrow more. True the second part mentions the lack of supply as a common factor to all the problems, but it doesn't offer any potential alternate policies to address this or to "end Ireland’s ‘failed developer-led property market’".

I might be biased but after re-reading the article I still feel the only clear "solution" it is hinting at is to relax lending rules.