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Property Market 2016
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newacc2015 wrote: »
How absurd does it look to a multinational to ask them to build accommodation for their workers as the Government of Ireland is incapable of providing sufficient housing? Your idea is completely ridiculous in my opinion. A single job provided by a multinational generally provides an additional 2 jobs indirectly. Google or Facebook might be paying hundreds of millions in corporation tax. But they are contributing far more to the employee than you think. ie they are using Irish suppliers, employees, banks, solicitors etc.
+1
If all Ireland has to offer to its workers is large dorms managed by their employers (reminiscent the past centuries and only present in industrialised developing countries such as China nowadays), we are definitely going backwards.0 -
Well to be fair, this kind of thing is not unusual in the western world, even if it's not the norm. Most of the tech giants don't have buildings in the US, they have campuses. Areas comparable with universities in size, complete with shopping centres and housing. Entirely self-contained compounds in effect, which their employees have the option to live.+1
If all Ireland has to offer to its workers is large dorms managed by their employers (reminiscent the past centuries and only present in industrialised developing countries such as China nowadays), we are definitely going backwards.
Granted, these are companies with tens of thousands of people working from one location, but to suggest that companies building worker accommodation is something you only see in communist sh1tholes is behind the times. San Francisco has a housing crisis that dwarfs Dublin's and companies seem happy enough to work around it by building their own villages. No doubt for large tax deductions.
Perhaps what we should be doing instead of building industrial estates in the middle of nowhere is building larger facilities with offices and accommodation. Companies lease not only office space, but accommodation which they sublet to their employees.0 -
Well to be fair, this kind of thing is not unusual in the western world, even if it's not the norm. Most of the tech giants don't have buildings in the US, they have campuses. Areas comparable with universities in size, complete with shopping centres and housing. Entirely self-contained compounds in effect, which their employees have the option to live.
This simply isn't true.
"Campus" refers to office buildings in reasonably close proximity. There is almost no housing, and almost no other business in the area. Logically, if you had enough housing near an office for the staff, the next office building simply wouldn't be close.
What does happen is the effect you see around DCU or UCD - housing near the campus is highly sought after by those with business on the campus.0 -
Well to be fair, this kind of thing is not unusual in the western world, even if it's not the norm. Most of the tech giants don't have buildings in the US, they have campuses. Areas comparable with universities in size, complete with shopping centres and housing. Entirely self-contained compounds in effect, which their employees have the option to live.
Housing facilities directly managed by the employer for their employees? (this is what the original post was suggesting - "they should provide campus accomadation as part of their infrastructure")
I'm not that familiar with the US but this is definitely very uncommon in Europe anyway (unless of course specific case where accommodation is provided for staff which needs to be on site all the time, mostly in some public and/or high-responsibility jobs, but this would be very limited).
And I think it is a good thing ... having your home linked to your job would be quite risky unless it is a very secure job: it pretty much would mean if you lose your job you become homeless exactly at the same time when your financial situation makes it difficult to find new accomodation, putting you in a very weak position in terms of balance of power with your employer.0 -
Oh I obviously agree this would be a bad policy. But I am just saying I am concerned that at some point most people won't be able to buy anymore as in spite of the rules prices will keep rising due to very short supply and the lack of new builds. And at that point relaxing the rules will be the easy option for the government to "fix" the problem.
The government doesn't control the Central Bank. They could however come up with some workaround like a deposit guarantee or a 'help to buy' scheme.0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »The government doesn't control the Central Bank. They could however come up with some workaround like a deposit guarantee or a 'help to buy' scheme.
And as I mentioned in my previous post, because the CBI doesn't take direct orders form the government doesn't mean it is completely insulated from external pressure. Enough pressure applied by the government and backed by part of the media, industry insiders, and part of the population could influence its decisions (they are also accountable to the ECB which would likely try to push back, but I believe anything is possible).0 -
And as I mentioned in my previous post, because the CBI doesn't take direct orders form the government doesn't mean it is completely insulated from external pressure. Enough pressure applied by the government and backed by part of the media, industry insiders, and part of the population could influence its decisions (they are also accountable to the ECB which would likely try to push back, but I believe anything is possible).
This isn't likely at all.0 -
Deleted User wrote: »This isn't likely at all.
Something to watch in the coming months is whether they start capping mortgage interests rates, which they clearly expressed they don't want, but have been pressured to do (including legislation to give them that power against their will): http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0519/789550-noonan-on-banks/
If they do, the pandora box will be open. I certainly hope they won't, but I wouldn't say it's not likely at all.0 -
Will be interesting how having a new minister for housing will affect the market. I don't think the moves government will make, will have an immediate impact, but they will surely change the game.
Landlords are getting checks monthly from government (social welfare tenants) that will be great if it's stopped. Will free up many houses that are currently been rented out at ludicrous prices.
Ulster bank selling it's loan book should also see some properties repossessed, from people whom are renting the house out and not paying a penny off their mortgage.
Can see a fall coming created by all the uncertainty of what might happen. And when changes actually do take place, will be better for buyers.
Either way can see a fall in market. Thoughts?0 -
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Will be interesting how having a new minister for housing will affect the market. I don't think the moves government will make, will have an immediate impact, but they will surely change the game.
I don't see how/why to be honest. The last government made 2 billion available to Local Authorities to fund the construction and purchase of housing- of which 18 months later- they've spent less than 180 million. They say they don't have the expertise to manage local authority builds- or portfolios any longer- after the last 12 years of no recruitment etc (only recently rescinded).
Having a Minister for Housing is one thing- however, its only one plank in the equation- and that equation involves a lot of other government departments- but principally DPER.Landlords are getting checks monthly from government (social welfare tenants) that will be great if it's stopped. Will free up many houses that are currently been rented out at ludicrous prices.
Those landlords who are accepting social welfare tenants- typically do at 10% below market going rates (depends on the scheme of course)- it is not a given that any properties will be freed up if social housing is removed from the private sector- the current model is for local authorities to approach landlords who might be interested in selling (which is a significant majority of those in the sector) and simply buying from them- or indeed, purchasing from the open market. 160 million was spent in this manner last year. It did not equate with a single extra property being available for anyone- it simply changed the relationship the tenant had- alongside the owner of the pre-existing property.
Stated government policy- is to ensure no 'council estates' are built anywhere- it is to be mixed housing with a good demographic from all sectors. Unfortunately- this does not lend itself to a local authority building programme. Nor, indeed, does the fact that we have no cancelled the programme to allow local authority tenants purchase property at up to a 40% discount on open market prices..........
Its a vicious circle- and tinkering around the edges- simply puts pressure elsewhere- we need a complete overhaul- to include cancelling all schemes which remove property from LA ownership- and the recruitment of decent teams to keep LA properties in good order (and renovate them as required etc).
We also need new legislation to permanently remove people from LA housing where they destroy the property- which is a lot more prevalent in this sector than in the rental sector as a whole......... I don't want to be bashing social welfare tenants- private tenants are as capable of destroying property- or vanishing into the night- there is little comeback when this happens.......Ulster bank selling it's loan book should also see some properties repossessed, from people whom are renting the house out and not paying a penny off their mortgage.
This is actually going to be interesting. The primary reason they are selling the loan book- is because they can't handle the flack which would be associated with foreclosing on non-performing loans (which is also why they're priced at 60c in the Euro). However- the number of landlords who have non-performing loans on rental properties- has been in a downward spiral- they're not the main protagonists any longer..........Can see a fall coming created by all the uncertainty of what might happen. And when changes actually do take place, will be better for buyers.
Either way can see a fall in market. Thoughts?
Until supply is increased to at least our annual demand levels (somewhere between 20k and 30k units per annum)- scarcity is going to keep prices where they are. Hell- even making it incredibly difficult to get loans- only slowed down run-away price rises- moderating them to what is still 4 times our rate of general inflation.
Supply- is the core issue- and until it is solved- which entails the construction of at very least 20,000 units per annum (possibly as many as 30,000 units per annum)- of suitable accommodation- in locations where people want to or need to live- it really doesn't matter what else happens- its simply tinkering with symptoms- rather than the core disease.0 -
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Thanks for reply.
Last government making money available is fair enough, but there's a real emphasis now on housing, thus, a new minister and talk of big changes. I just feel they will get this moving.
I also think houses being made available will result in lower prices, mainly due to people being moved from privately rented homes, which is being funded by the state. And even though landlords renting to welfare recipients is at a modestly reduced rate, it's still a large amount, easily enough to cover the landlords mortgage, which is reckless and ridiculous, as it ultimately means, tax payers are paying for speculative landlords mortgages.
I also feel as the government increase supply it will dampen the whole market. What I mean by this is, people will be getting brand new modern homes, for a very modest council rent, this will have mental impacts on individuals considering giving all their disposable income away for 30years for a house probably not as good as some welfare family that have never worked a day in their lives.
I feel you made good points, but I think if this happens (government plan) it will change the property game for a few years.0 -
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Thanks for reply.
Last government making money available is fair enough, but there's a real emphasis now on housing, thus, a new minister and talk of big changes. I just feel they will get this moving.
A new Minister etc for housing- fine- however, where they now only have a single vote majority in the Dáil, no majority at all in the Seanad- and an expectation that it'll be pure pot luck if they survive until Christmas- most of the TDs are looking to their own constituencies and trying to push any measures that will copper fasten their re-election prospects- there is no confidence whatsoever that the government is capable of delivering diddly squat.I also think houses being made available will result in lower prices, mainly due to people being moved from privately rented homes, which is being funded by the state. And even though landlords renting to welfare recipients is at a modestly reduced rate, it's still a large amount, easily enough to cover the landlords mortgage, which is reckless and ridiculous, as it ultimately means, tax payers are paying for speculative landlords mortgages.
Houses being made available- thats part of the problem. The money being made available has thus far been used to purchase properties on the open market with a small portion- approximately 16% of expenditure in the sector- used to renovate LA properties as they become vacant.
The local authorities- are not building properties. They are buying small quantities on the open market- removing them from the reach of those who wish to rent privately or buy privately.
Limerick Co. Co. planners were particularly forthright when interviewed on Morning Ireland a few weeks back- where they bluntly said they don't have the expertise to initiate and manage building projects any longer- they are barely capable of managing the renovation of LA units as they become vacant- with an average turn around of 16 weeks on renovations- which seems quite remarkable to me........
As for income from social welfare tenants etc covering landlords mortgages- this depends entirely on when the properties were purchased. Many were purchased in boom times- and the entire tax regime governing landlords and regulatory requirements are a lot tighter now than they once were. Also- many landlords may have inherited properties- or indeed, prudently paid down liens on property- which means their ability to benefit from high rental conditions are limited- as the government nets up to 54% of gross rental income (and thats before dealing with abnormal wear and tear or damages- which Irishlandlords.ie reckons average 6 months of rental income on a 4 year tenancy- unless the tenant causes unusual levels of damage- in which case it can eclipse any rental income ever received).
There is a problem with looking at rental income- and pointing at landlords and imagining that they're greedy bolloxes- because of the obscene rent they're taking in. The main recipient and beneficiary of a lot of these ridiculous rents- is the Revenue Commissioners and regulatory bodies- such as the RTB- some landlords- particularly the REITs who are able to shield their income from the taxman- are making remarkable returns- but the little landlord with a couple of properties- is getting shafted- however- because its happening behind the scenes- and people prefer to look at whats happening to themselves- rather than to others.
The bogeyman here- is the regulatory regime- and the Revenue Commissioners- not the tenant and not the landlord- though it suits the government down to the ground to pit landlords against tenants- and vice versa.I also feel as the government increase supply it will dampen the whole market. What I mean by this is, people will be getting brand new modern homes, for a very modest council rent, this will have mental impacts on individuals considering giving all their disposable income away for 30years for a house probably not as good as some welfare family that have never worked a day in their lives.
I feel you made good points, but I think if this happens (government plan) it will change the property game for a few years.
I'm not sure why you have it in your head that the government are increasing supply. The government have thrown money at the problem- and it achieved precisely nothing.
There are a plethora of issues which need to be addressed before it becomes viable for developers to start building again- not leastly the complete and utter lack of working capital for developers- no-one wants to lend to them. Bank-of-Ireland quoted 16% rates to one of the biggest developers still in the game last week- and they were the only one who bothered quoting. The actual cost of construction- is now less than 45% of the overall cost of a property- the finance cost- all told- is in the region of 25%- and the other 30% is site related etc.
There isn't a magic wand that can be waved- and its not the type of problem that simply throwing money at is going to achieve anything (at all). Its extremely complex- with every action having all manner of other interactions with other aspects of the problem- and the competing interests of all parties (tenants, prospective property purchasers, landlords, REITS, The Revenue Commissioners etc) all impacting on one another.
I don't envy Mr. Coveney his job- however, it is a once in a lifetime opportunity for him to make a monumental difference to the future of the country- for which he will be remembered in a manner he might never achieve in any other guise- and if he plays his cards right- he just might make a difference.
In general- whatever vested groups shouts loud enough gets its wishlist examined and acted on. In this instance- its those who don't have the time or inclination to protest outside the Dáil, lobby their TDs, or take other action- the obedient PAYE employees who never feature anywhere- who need to be heeded and accommodated (literally).0 -
The_Conductor wrote: »I don't envy Mr. Coveney his job- however, it is a once in a lifetime opportunity for him to make a monumental difference to the future of the country- for which he will be remembered in a manner he might never achieve in any other guise- and if he plays his cards right- he just might make a difference.
True, but at the same time even with the best intentions and a clear vision (which I have no idea whether he has or not) it is not clear to me whether he has the authority to do anything. As you rightly mentioned there are many interest groups which are shouting louder than people impacted by the lack of supply. One minister alone can't do anything if he doesn't have very strong support from the very top of the government to deprioritise or even go against these groups if necessary. I don't know whether it is the case, but I am not holding my breath :-/0 -
Bob24 wrote:True, but at the same time even with the best intentions and a clear vision (which I have no idea whether he has or not) it is not clear to me whereas he has the authority to do anything. As you rightly mentioned there are many interest groups which are shouting louder than people impacted by the lack of supply. One minister alone can't do anything if he doesn't have very strong support from the very top of the government to deprioritise or even go against these groups if necessary. I don't know whether it is the case, but I am not holding my breath :-/
He seemed completely lost and out of his depth on the Clare Byrne show 2 weeks ago.
Michael noonan has made it quiet clear that bank share price is his ultimate priority, he won't be allowing anything that will destabilise bank balance sheets,.0 -
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He seemed completely lost and out of his depth on the Clare Byrne show 2 weeks ago.
Michael noonan has made it quiet clear that bank share price is his ultimate priority, he won't be allowing anything that will destabilise bank balance sheets,.
Wonderful- so screw the ordinary person walking down the street, be they homeowner, landlord or tenant- we mustn't do anything which might impact on the share prices of our banks to whom the Minister thinks the average person walking down the street is beholden to...........
How exactly is this serving the people?0 -
The_Conductor wrote:Wonderful- so screw the ordinary person walking down the street, be they homeowner, landlord or tenant- we mustn't do anything which might impact on the share prices of our banks to whom the Minister thinks the average person walking down the street is beholden to...........The_Conductor wrote:How exactly is this serving the people?
You get what you vote for. This was the policy of the last Government and the recent election did not change much
I think the nub of the problem is that despite what we have been through, a significant majority of the irish public believe that rapidly rising house prices are a good thing.
If it were not for our central bank and German infuence on lending policy, the situation would be considerably worse0 -
You get what you vote for. This was the policy of the last Government and the recent election did not change much
Sadly, there wasn't really any credible alternative offering a different policy to vote for.I think the nub of the problem is that despite what we have been through, a significant majority of the irish public believe that rapidly rising house prices are a good thing.
Exactly. And there are too many people who see it a their short-term self interest for prices to rise.0 -
http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dublin-4/upper-leeson-street-dublin-4-dublin-1644117/
Read the property description.
Is it too much to ask for a description of a property going for €6k per month not to be littered with poor spelling and grammar?
Not only is it unprofessional, but it indicates a distinct lack of pride in the work they do.0 -
http://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/dublin-4/upper-leeson-street-dublin-4-dublin-1644117/
Read the property description.
Is it too much to ask for a description of a property going for €6k per month not to be littered with poor spelling and grammar?
Not only is it unprofessional, but it indicates a distinct lack of pride in the work they do.
unless you own the house dont see why you care.0 -
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Mod note
Posters are reminded that the charter makes it quite clear, attack the post, not the poster.0 -
Who said I cared?unless you own the house dont see why you care.
I'm merely pointing out a very poor piece of writing and how it relates to the property market.
I'm not. But it would not be a good first impression of the letting agency if I was.68 lost souls wrote: »Or he is looking to rent it0 -
Who said I cared?
I'm merely pointing out a very poor piece of writing and how it relates to the property market.
I'm not. But it would not be a good first impression of the letting agency if I was.
Again why do you care you dont own the house or are not looking to rent pointless
Mod note: banned for two weeks for repeated trolling.0 -
This post has been deleted.0
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The_Conductor wrote: »Wonderful- so screw the ordinary person walking down the street, be they homeowner, landlord or tenant- we mustn't do anything which might impact on the share prices of our banks to whom the Minister thinks the average person walking down the street is beholden to...........
How exactly is this serving the people?
That's the bind Mr "I need property prices a bit higher" has got himself into.0 -
draiochtanois wrote: »This post has been deleted.
Banks making profits, yes of course (for example the idea of having the CBI cap interest rates is ridiculous).
But covering banks for their historical bad decisions is very different (and this is what this discussion is about).
New entrants don't care if bad loans and assets Irish banks have accumulated over the past decade are salvaged through government intervention. What they want is clear regulation and government interventions limited to making the market stable (not serving historical insider's interests).0 -
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draiochtanois wrote: »This post has been deleted.
Its not just AIB and Bank of Ireland though- and we have had recent entrants in the Irish market- albeit- in the subprime sector.......
Competition is all well and good- however- we have to be cognisant of just how small the Irish market is overall- the larger banks- Santander/Standard etc etc- simply don't see growth opportunities here.
Have a read of Bank of Ireland's last annual report- it sees the UK as its growth engine to 2020- not the Republic- AIB is constrained in its activities for other (obvious reasons)- and Ulster bank and some of the other lenders- are in the process of cleansing their balance sheets (by offloading non-performing loans to US investment groups at varying amounts on the dollar- most recently 60c in the Euro by Ulster Bank in the past forthnight.
The Irish market has not healed- and is incapable of supporting our incumbents- never mind new entrants- other than those who are in a position to screw over prospective borrowers who don't qualify for loans from traditional lenders (this could be for a myriad of reasons- including the fact that the loan applicants are self employed).draiochtanois wrote: »This post has been deleted.
The government has reduced its share of Bank of Ireland to under 14%- and the last of its preference shares- which were due for repayment this July- were repaid early (a round billion's worth). The government's current shareholding in BOI is worth less than 1.1 billion of the bank's 8.5 billion valuation. It would be nice to simply transfer this shareholding back into the NPRF- if its planned to reconstitute it- and have it moved off the government's balance sheets (its probably worth more long term as a pension investment- than liquidising it as an asset).draiochtanois wrote: »This post has been deleted.
10+ banks competing for our business low variable and fixed rate products?
That would be utopia.
It is never going to happen- irrespective of what happens to the share price of BOI and/or AIB.
Our market is too small to support the levels of business you're suggesting.
A more viable option might be to offload AIB to the likes of Santander- however- Santander is up the creek from its exposure to non-performing Spanish loans- never mind the crap in the UK etc.
I would argue that it means far more to the average person walking down the street to have measures implemented which improve their situation right-here-right-now. The ESRI, Ibec and others- are now insisting that the government needs to cut spending further- and increase taxes- in all budgets up to 2020- on the basis of the manner in which our economy is expanding. The expansion in our economy however- is not benefiting the average person walking down the street- and there is no imminent prospect of it doing so.
Getting house prices / the cost of renting - out of the equation- through a massive increase in supply- well built properties in good locations, with access to facilities and amenities- is crucial.
I'm not sure who precisely is benefiting from the uptick in the economy- but it certainly is not the recent Irish employees laid off by Intel and HP- we are also actively turning away multinational investment- because we can't house their employees- and we're shafting pre-existing employees with our tax bands. The imbalances in the Irish economy are quite remarkable.0 -
Given the goal of the EU seems to be an EU wide market for mobile phones, is there any possibility of someday having banking access universal across the EU? It would open up the Irish market a lot0
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mirrorwall14 wrote: »Given the goal of the EU seems to be an EU wide market for mobile phones, is there any possibility of someday having banking access universal across the EU? It would open up the Irish market a lot
Any EU bank who want to lend money in the Irish market- can already do so under the banking license issued in their home state (they simply sign up with the Irish Central Bank for code of conduct rules- they don't need an Irish banking license). There are 3 lenders using this precise setup currently engaged in Irish banking sector (Rabobank for example).
There is nothing whatsoever to stop other lenders doing it- other than they don't need the expense and overheads associated with running a business in a small market such as ours.
If they were interested- they could run rings around AIB/BOI/Ulster etc- as they wouldn't have legacy baggage- however, our market is not viable.
In the grand scale of things- the Irish retail market is a back water. We have major banks here on the commercial side (Citi, Commerzbank etc)- who have massive retail operations in their home markets (however- in many cases- they're running down their retail operations even in their own home markets- much as BOI are doing here)- which they have zero interest in offering retail offerings here.0 -
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The_Conductor wrote: »Any EU bank who want to lend money in the Irish market- can already do so under the banking license issued in their home state (they simply sign up with the Irish Central Bank for code of conduct rules- they don't need an Irish banking license). There are 3 lenders using this precise setup currently engaged in Irish banking sector (Rabobank for example).
There is nothing whatsoever to stop other lenders doing it- other than they don't need the expense and overheads associated with running a business in a small market such as ours.
If they were interested- they could run rings around AIB/BOI/Ulster etc- as they wouldn't have legacy baggage- however, our market is not viable.
In the grand scale of things- the Irish retail market is a back water. We have major banks here on the commercial side (Citi, Commerzbank etc)- who have massive retail operations in their home markets (however- in many cases- they're running down their retail operations even in their own home markets- much as BOI are doing here)- which they have zero interest in offering retail offerings here.
Interesting. I did rather mean from the other direction, as in not establishing themselves as such in Ireland but being able to walk into a bank in France and organise a mortgage for Ireland0
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