Property Market 2016

The_Conductor

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Interesting. I did rather mean from the other direction, as in not establishing themselves as such in Ireland but being able to walk into a bank in France and organise a mortgage for Ireland

You can do that already- if the lender is willing to accept extraterritorial property as collateral on a mortgage. You're unlikely to save money though- I've a German friend who recently got a German mortgage for a bungalow just outside Clonakilty- the interest rate they're paying is similar to what AIB/BOI are currently quoting however (in reflection of the perceived extra risk with using collateral that the lender can't appraise as they would a local property.

It is possible- the issue is lenders don't want the hassle- and price it such that people can't justify taking the loan as you're proposing.

Bob24

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Interesting. I did rather mean from the other direction, as in not establishing themselves as such in Ireland but being able to walk into a bank in France and organise a mortgage for Ireland

The_Conductor wrote: »

You can do that already- if the lender is willing to accept extraterritorial property as collateral on a mortgage. You're unlikely to save money though- I've a German friend who recently got a German mortgage for a bungalow just outside Clonakilty- the interest rate they're paying is similar to what AIB/BOI are currently quoting however (in reflection of the perceived extra risk with using collateral that the lender can't appraise as they would a local property.

It is possible- the issue is lenders don't want the hassle- and price it such that people can't justify taking the loan as you're proposing.

Yes - personal experience with my French bank is that they will lend a small amount at French (fixed and between 2-3%) rates as a gesture of goodwill since I have been a long term customer with good financial history and various saving accounts with them, but not enough to buy a property in Ireland. If you want to borrow more they are ready to discuss it but will request a property in France (or other assets, locked deposit account, etc) as a collateral.

It makes sense: the regulatory environment in Ireland is much different and should things go wrong they don't have the legal and commercial expertise to repossess or dispose of a property in Ireland (not to mentions that repossession orders in Ireland are much more difficult to obtain ... which Irish banks are factoring in in their rates).

Also, if the property you want to buy is fairly high demand, even if you get your foreign mortgage the seller in Ireland might favour a cash buyer or a buyer with an Irish mortgage, assuming the sale will be quicker and smoother.

Also given how long term a mortgage can but, you should keep in mind that if one day the Eurozone breaks-up, you could end-up with a mortgage in a currency which is appreciating (or depreciating) vs the currency in which your property and you income are denominated.

gaius c

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Given the goal of the EU seems to be an EU wide market for mobile phones, is there any possibility of someday having banking access universal across the EU? It would open up the Irish market a lot

Well they'd price the risk of bad debt into their rates and end up the same as the zombie banks so what's the point?

Rew

Very happy to see CB are sticking to their guns and giving a subtle 2 fingers to the comments of the Dail committee

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0609/794298-central-bank-mortgage-rules/

Ms Donnery said the measures amount to "prudent lending standards", adding that the evidence threshold for any change would need to be high.

OttoPilot

gaius c wrote: »

Well they'd price the risk of bad debt into their rates and end up the same as the zombie banks so what's the point?

Zombie banks are like a cartel currently. It's like an unspoken agreement not to lower rates so they can all profit from it.

Idbatterim

Good news. I'll be making a submission, this is exactly where things went wrong the last time round. The snakes solution is allowing you to halng yourself with more debt. Heres mine, let the government cut their take , lower interest rates, allow higher density and single aspect and reduce lift ratio simple. I don't need the council dictating to me how I blow a fortune on rent or mortgage. I'd be happy with single aspect. I don't need those fools telling me otherwise ...

Idbatterim

OttoPilot wrote: »

Zombie banks are like a cartel currently. It's like an unspoken agreement not to lower rates so they can all profit from it.

Yeah but you can't blame them for that. They are there to maximise profit... If you were running a business with only several other competitors, would you spark a race to the bottom , like the insurance industry did a few years ago where nobody won?!

Forget blaming developers and banks. They are acting In Their own interests the way you or I would. It's the governments job to sort this mess out. Their only proposal is to allow us to lumber ourselves with more debt ...

keane2097

It's a new one on me that we can't blame people operating cartels for operating cartels I must say.

Bob24

keane2097 wrote: »

It's a new one on me that we can't blame people operating cartels for operating cartels I must say.

Don't know about the work cartel. Let's say interest group.

And I think the point is that you can blam them all you want ... As long as what they are doing is legal and approved by the government, why would they stop?

Letree

Any word on property prices for May from the CSO. I can't see anything yet.

brownbeard

Letree wrote: »

Any word on property prices for May from the CSO. I can't see anything yet.

Expect them on the 29th. Usually the last Wednesday of the month.

handlemaster

What effect will britexit have on the market ?

Bob24

handlemaster wrote: »

What effect will britexit have on the market ?

Very good question. In the short term it could only be a psychological effect as Brexit is not effectively happening anytime soon, or possibly never (long negotiation process to leave).

But the impact could be there.

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

What effect will britexit have on the market ?

If a number of Financial Institutions decide to decamp from London to Dublin/Frankfurt/Paris/Milan- it could be that there may be a further tightening for supply- particularly for well-spec'ed properties and I imagine a significant quantity of singletons- in the Dublin market.

There have been a number of enquiries in the last few weeks to the Irish Central Bank on how various institutions might move their businesses to Dublin- its going to happen- but its probably a little down the road.

Of more interest- FDI- particularly from the US- can only get significantly higher. A major drag on FDI here- is the lack of housing for potential employees- alongside our punitive personal taxation regime. These two factors need to be urgently addressed- if we are to capitalise on the opportunities that this dark day brings to Ireland............

The_Conductor

Bob24 wrote: »

Very good question. In the short term it could only be a psychological effect as Brexit is not effectively happening anytime soon, or possibly never (long negotiation process to leave).

But the impact could be there.

The EPP and other groupings in the EU Parliament held a breakfast press conference this morning- calling on the UK to immediately invoke Article 50 declarations- which starts the clock on the countdown. The timeline is 2 years. The train of thought is the conditions on the UK's departure have to be seen as punitive in nature- as Euroscepticism in The Netherlands and esp. Denmark- is even higher than in the UK. It has to be shown to the voters of these countries- than opting out is not an easy process, or one which allows them the best aspects of the common market- with picking and choosing of the aspects they like and dislike.

Its looking likely to be a nasty divorce.

El_Dangeroso

Shares of property building companies in the UK are being hardest hit along with banks.

It will have a big knock on effect, but we don't have any idea what that effect will be.

I have relatives in the UK that are pretty freaked out about their futures right now.

handlemaster

I would think that some people will look to euro countries to invest ... to lock in thé value they can get now with the sterling. The english love property

audi12

handlemaster wrote: »

I would think that some people will look to euro countries to invest ... to lock in thé value they can get now with the sterling. The english love property

Surely this wont help Irish house prices also as British property falls.

handlemaster

audi12 wrote: »

Surely this wont help Irish house prices also as British property falls.

It would be a currency play more than a property play

audi12

handlemaster wrote: »

It would be a currency play more than a property play

They are related property prices will fall in Britain thats guaranteed any lack of confidence in regards to the Irish economy will hit property here which is already flat as it is.

Bob24

The_Conductor wrote: »

If a number of Financial Institutions decide to decamp from London to Dublin/Frankfurt/Paris/Milan- it could be that there may be a further tightening for supply- particularly for well-spec'ed properties and I imagine a significant quantity of singletons- in the Dublin market.

There have been a number of enquiries in the last few weeks to the Irish Central Bank on how various institutions might move their businesses to Dublin- its going to happen- but its probably a little down the road.

Of more interest- FDI- particularly from the US- can only get significantly higher. A major drag on FDI here- is the lack of housing for potential employees- alongside our punitive personal taxation regime. These two factors need to be urgently addressed- if we are to capitalise on the opportunities that this dark day brings to Ireland............

I agree there is an opportunity for Ireland and if it materialises property shortage will be an even more serious issue, but this is in the medium to long term.

In the short term the Irish institutional and media machine was running full steam explaining people how a catastrophe Brexit would be of the economy.

Now that it is indeed happening, isn't there a short to medium term risk for investors to move away from the Irish property market because of all they have heard about the bad consequences of Brexit for Ireland?

The_Conductor wrote: »

The EPP and other groupings in the EU Parliament held a breakfast press conference this morning- calling on the UK to immediately invoke Article 50 declarations- which starts the clock on the countdown. The timeline is 2 years. The train of thought is the conditions on the UK's departure have to be seen as punitive in nature- as Euroscepticism in The Netherlands and esp. Denmark- is even higher than in the UK. It has to be shown to the voters of these countries- than opting out is not an easy process, or one which allows them the best aspects of the common market- with picking and choosing of the aspects they like and dislike.

Its looking likely to be a nasty divorce.

On the timing, EU can call for whatever they want, the initiative has to come from the UK and as long as Britain doesn't trigger the process they will have to wait. So I think it will take a while.

OfflerCrocGod

Over the short term it should be negative, decisions will be put on hold until it's clearer what the end result will be, the UK economy will slow down which will effect us. Over the long term it depends how good we are at capturing FDI, historically we've not been slackers there so maybe the negative effects will be offset by the positive? Hard to say, if we put up a border up north and our goods are tariffed we'd need a lot of FDI to make up for that.

cnocbui

I think there is a good chance a lot of foreign companies located in the UK for EU access, will relocate to Ireland and that if this happens, prices certainly wont fall. Already there has been a denial that Morgan Stanley is planning to relocate 2,000 people to Dublin.

audi12

cnocbui wrote: »

I think there is a good chance a lot of foreign companies located in the UK for EU access, will relocate to Ireland and that if this happens, prices certainly wont fall. Already there has been a denial that Morgan Stanley is planning to relocate 2,000 people to Dublin.

But where will they relocate to mostly Dublin if that happens they wont hold up prices outside Dublin and thats a couple of years away from taking place you would think.

cnocbui

audi12 wrote: »

But where will they relocate to mostly Dublin if that happens they wont hold up prices outside Dublin and thats a couple of years away from taking place you would think.

I would think the sheer scale of the migration would have a lot of companies realising that no matter how much they might want to locate in Dublin, the housing for their staff simply isn't available so they won't have a choice but to look outside Dublin. It's months away, not years.

audi12

cnocbui wrote: »

I would think the sheer scale of the migration would have a lot of companies realising that no matter how much they might want to locate in Dublin, the housing for their staff simply isn't available so they won't have a choice but to look outside Dublin. It's months away, not years.

Galway Cork they are there only other options. We will see will be interesting to see what happens market is a mess as it is.

Sheeeeit

audi12 wrote: »

Galway Cork they are there only other options. We will see will be interesting to see what happens market is a mess as it is.

Why not Limerick?

audi12

Sheeeeit wrote: »

Why not Limerick?

Doesn't get much FDI investment not in comparison to Dublin and Galway.

cnocbui

audi12 wrote: »

Galway Cork they are there only other options. We will see will be interesting to see what happens market is a mess as it is.

Limerick would be a better option than Galway. A very capable airport nearby and the other three reachable by road fairly quickly.

The_Conductor

Sheeeeit wrote: »

Why not Limerick?

You need 'anchor tenants' to attract hubs of IT / Med / Chemical works etc etc. Galway has these anchor tenants- as do various other locations around the country (e.g. Leixlip for example) - Limerick, not to the same extent.......

The bigger issue- surpassing all others- is the complete and utter lack of residential accommodation where people want to live.......... If the government- or anyone else- wants to try to make a case for inward investment- FDI or otherwise- they need to fix this core underlying issue ASAP..........