Property Market 2016

audi12

cnocbui wrote: »

Limerick would be a better option than Galway. A very capable airport nearby and the other three reachable by road fairly quickly.

why does Galway get all the investment and is booming then where as Limerick doesnt seem to be.

The_Conductor

cnocbui wrote: »

Limerick would be a better option than Galway. A very capable airport nearby and the other three reachable by road fairly quickly.

Access to an airport is hardly the issue though, now- is it?
Its the complete and utter lack of residential accommodation.
Limerick is even worse than Dublin or Galway.........

c montgomery

audi12 wrote: »

Doesn't get much FDI investment not in comparison to Dublin and Galway.

Really!!! I've been to the 5 pharma companies below over the past 3 months and all but ethicon are booming.

Cook medical
Vistacon
Ethicon
Striker
Reagecon

audi12

c montgomery wrote: »

Really!!! I've been to the 5 pharma companies below over the past 3 months and all but ethicon are booming.

Cook medical
Vistacon
Ethicon
Striker
Reagecon

In comparison to Galway I didnt said they dont get any.

c montgomery

audi12 wrote: »

In comparison to Galway I didnt said they dont get any.

In my experience there's not much difference between them but then I'm only talking about the pharma/medical devices/science areas.
Financial areas could be different.

audi12

c montgomery wrote: »

In my experience there's not much difference between them but then I'm only talking about the pharma/medical devices/science areas.
Financial areas could be different.

The perception is that Galway is the place to be for FDI I dont pretend to be an expert on the matter however.

cnocbui

The_Conductor wrote: »

Access to an airport is hardly the issue though, now- is it?
Its the complete and utter lack of residential accommodation.
Limerick is even worse than Dublin or Galway.........

Really? I live in North Tipp and was under the impression house prices were either static or in decline - just checked and that's about right. Limerick median house price seems to be €169 K which is after a 2.4% annual increase. I would hardly say that was indicative of a serious shortage.

Villa05

The_Conductor wrote: »

You need 'anchor tenants' to attract hubs of IT / Med / Chemical works etc etc. Galway has these anchor tenants- as do various other locations around the country (e.g. Leixlip for example) - Limerick, not to the same extent.......

The bigger issue- surpassing all others- is the complete and utter lack of residential accommodation where people want to live.......... If the government- or anyone else- wants to try to make a case for inward investment- FDI or otherwise- they need to fix this core underlying issue ASAP..........

Limerick had an Anchor tenant and that did not end well, now they have several employers in varied industries/services which employ around a 1000 employees each. Much better situation in my opinion

Nothern Trusts move from Dublin to Limerick seems to be quiet successful, they were planning on leaving the country

Accomodation issues can be sorted out easily if the will was there to do so

audi12

cnocbui wrote: »

Really? I live in North Tipp and was under the impression house prices were either static or in decline - just checked and that's about right. Limerick median house price seems to be €169 K which is after a 2.4% annual increase. I would hardly say that was indicative of a serious shortage.

There are going to decline now once the brexit impact takes hold aswell.

brownbeard

CSO May figures released:

National: up 0.2% month on month
Dublin: up 0.1% month on month

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexmay2016/

brownbeard

Also of note is that Dublin apartments have dropped by 1.1% year on year for the first time in three years

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

brownbeard

Edit:Included quote

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Thanks driochtanois. The CSO include this note in every monthly release of the RPPI. While volumes of apartment sales in Dublin can be low in certain months which does lead to volatility in month on month figures, the dataset for the year on year figure is much more significant.

Bob24

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

That warning is present every month about apartments and basically means you shouldn't read too munch into month to month changes.

But if you look at the trend oven the past several months it will still give you an idea of what is happening. The fact that YoY change in May 2016 is -1.1% while it was +24.6% in May 2015 is not due to volatility and does indicate a trend.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

brownbeard

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Perhaps in that post, I should have referenced the fact that I was discussing results from the CSO RPPI, the dataset for which is property purchases financed with a mortgage.


I’m pointing out that it’s the first year on year drop that we’ve seen in a while from the CSO RPPI. I think it’s interesting. I don’t think it’s sensational though.

Bob24

brownbeard wrote: »

Perhaps in that post, I should have referenced the fact that I was discussing results from the CSO RPPI, the dataset for which is property purchases financed with a mortgage.


I’m pointing out that it’s the first year on year drop that we’ve seen in a while from the CSO RPPI. I think it’s interesting. I don’t think it’s sensational though.

No it is not sensational ;-) The CSO index has its flaws (and the fact that is only mortgaged based applies to all figures - not just Dublin apartments) but if you look at long term trends it gives you an idea of what is happening, and there is no other index which gives a better view anyway.

Rew

Is there anything up to date for cash versus mortgage sales totals?

Bob24

Rew wrote: »

Is there anything up to date for cash versus mortgage sales totals?

The IT was recently saying 45% of transactions are funded with cash - they don't clearly quote their source though.

PhoenixParker

Bob24 wrote: »

No it is not sensational ;-) The CSO index has its flaws (and the fact that is only mortgaged based applies to all figures - not just Dublin apartments) but if you look at long term trends it gives you an idea of what is happening, and there is no other index which gives a better view anyway.

The property price register gives a better overview in my opinion, albeit with a lag of about 3 months before the data is useable.
It includes all sales in the country.

Bob24

PhoenixParker wrote: »

The property price register gives a better overview in my opinion, albeit with a lag of about 3 months before the data is useable.
It includes all sales in the country.

Agreed the data is more complete, but on the other hand there is no official index published from it which makes it easy to compare the evolution over time (except the one Gaius C has been computing himself and posting here :-), but I don't think he did publish it recently - unfortunately as I indeed think it is indeed a better overall indicator!).

Also the PPR has its own flaws:
- As you mentioned there is a lag with the data
- It doesn't include any details about property (type, size, etc), so it couldn't be used to produce an index such as the Dublin apartments one we were discussion
- The way address are entered is sometimes approximative, so same sales could be assigned to the wrong location

The_Conductor

Bob24 wrote: »

The IT was recently saying 45% of transactions are funded with cash - they don't clearly quote their source though.

We have the mortgaged totals from the CSO- and we have the total figures (in arrears) from the PPR. Take one from the other- and you have cash sales.

gaius c

Bob24 wrote: »

Agreed the data is more complete, but on the other hand there is no official index published from it which makes it easy to compare the evolution over time (except the one Gaius C has been computing himself and posting here :-), but I don't think he did publish it recently - unfortunately as I indeed think it is indeed a better overall indicator!).

Also the PPR has its own flaws:
- As you mentioned there is a lag with the data
- It doesn't include any details about property (type, size, etc), so it couldn't be used to produce an index such as the Dublin apartments one we were discussion
- The way address are entered is sometimes approximative, so same sales could be assigned to the wrong location

1. New job and 1 year old. Been busy.

2. Also the graphs are not working anymore due to information overload and I need time to fix them (see problem 1).

PhoenixParker

Bob24 wrote: »

Agreed the data is more complete, but on the other hand there is no official index published from it which makes it easy to compare the evolution over time (except the one Gaius C has been computing himself and posting here :-), but I don't think he did publish it recently - unfortunately as I indeed think it is indeed a better overall indicator!).

Also the PPR has its own flaws:
- As you mentioned there is a lag with the data
- It doesn't include any details about property (type, size, etc), so it couldn't be used to produce an index such as the Dublin apartments one we were discussion
- The way address are entered is sometimes approximative, so same sales could be assigned to the wrong location

Some nice charts of the data at the end of this thread
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=65651

gaius c

Anyway precis is that prices are fairly bouncy at the moment. Dublin average was up 33% in Jan 2016 but down -29% the next month.

And that volatility is down to the extremely low transaction volume. Since last September, there's been a significant drop in national transaction volume YOY with only one month showing an increase. So with 2015 topping out at a turnover rate of approx 2.4% and 2016 showing signs of a slide from that, it really doesn't indicate a healthy market.

Bob24

PhoenixParker wrote: »

Some nice charts of the data at the end of this thread
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=65651

Thanks that's pretty neat indeed.

PhoenixParker

gaius c wrote: »

Since last September, there's been a significant drop in national transaction volume YOY with only one month showing an increase. So with 2015 topping out at a turnover rate of approx 2.4% and 2016 showing signs of a slide from that, it really doesn't indicate a healthy market.

This is a bit of a myth, created by the lag in the PPR I think.

December and January were down YOY, the other months are pretty static YOY.
February and November are higher.
April looks pretty much static (allowing for some data to trickle in just yet).
May looks like it'll work out higher once the remaining data is in.
March is down, but by less then 10% and it had Easter this year which it didn't have last year.

Overall, 2016 is shaping up to be very similar in volume to 2015.

brownbeard

PhoenixParker wrote: »

This is a bit of a myth, created by the lag in the PPR I think.

...

Overall, 2016 is shaping up to be very similar in volume to 2015.

I'd have to agree, looking at the volumes reported so far. 2016 so far seems to be only slightly below 2015 in terms of cumulative totals as can be seen by clicking on the "cumulative totals" tab in the bottom graph at the below links;

National:
http://propertypriceregisterireland.com/graphs/

Dublin:
http://propertypriceregisterireland.com/graphs/?action=search&type=county&id=dublin

Wompa1

Pure speculation here....BUT...would it be fair to assume that many of the first time buyers who are paying with cash are either paying with parents money, inheritance or money made overseas.

The latter of which may be hurt by the Brexit with people contracting in the UK now coming back with much less than previously.

Ditto people in Canada compared to a few years ago with the Canadian dollar taking a dump.

Ditto those in Australia since the Aussie dollar has taken a dump.

The_Conductor

Wompa1 wrote: »

Pure speculation here....BUT...would it be fair to assume that many of the first time buyers who are paying with cash are either paying with parents money, inheritance or money made overseas.

The latter of which may be hurt by the Brexit with people contracting in the UK now coming back with much less than previously.

Ditto people in Canada compared to a few years ago with the Canadian dollar taking a dump.

Ditto those in Australia since the Aussie dollar has taken a dump.

That is purely speculative.

Vis-a-vis the Australian Dollar- the spot rate for the AUD/EUR for 2 years ago- was .65967 The spot price for this morning is .67331 The spot rate for exchange rates varies on a daily basis- however, the AUD/EUR spotrate was trading comfortably in its current marginal state- 2 years ago. You have to go back to Q1 2012 to get a .85696 spike.

The Canadian Dollar/EUR rate- similarly- is at .7005 this morning- which is actually a significantly strengthened position since Q4 2015- where it traded as low as .62819- so it hasn't recently fallen against the EUR- over the past 6 months it has consistently strengthened.

As for inheritence, people playing with Mommies and Daddies money etc- how is that relevant?

The most recent figures available to us- show the cash buyer segment of the market static at in or around 40%- no change whatsoever.........

The only people I personally know of who are exploring their options to return home and purchase here- bought in Toronto, Vancouver, London and Sydney- before property prices there reached their current crescendos. Despite the global uncertainties Brexit has unleashed- they are selling into bubble markets- and getting top dollar for their properties. They have these funds- which with the exception of sterling denominated property- have not fallen against the EUR recently.

What you are saying- simply doesn't stack up.........