Property Market 2016

The_Conductor

The_Conductor wrote: »

Cash into their hands- and they worked a regular day- not a 16 hour day?
When you actually sit down and enumerate things- it gets very hairy, very quickly.......... (My sis is an SHO in Temple Street)

2 men * 2 days * even at 8 hours only = 32 hours work for €500.

= €15.625 per hour.

What is hairy about that? (and that's assuming the wrong hours imo, given that we were told they worked 'til dark').

edit: see above. ~ 10.5 hours per day * 2 men * 2 days = 42 hours for €500.
~ €11.90 ph.

Again, not exactly hairy imo.

OfflerCrocGod

Where were the claims that building costs could/will be slashed by a third? Is that including site cost and taxes? Seems optimistic...

caviardreams

The_Conductor wrote: »

Cash into their hands- and they worked a regular day- not a 16 hour day?
When you actually sit down and enumerate things- it gets very hairy, very quickly.......... (My sis is an SHO in Temple Street)

Could well believe it, though do you mean a surgical SHO rather than a surgeon (i.e. consultant grade)?

yqtwqxqm

Deleted User wrote: »

2 men * 2 days * even at 8 hours only = 32 hours work for €500.

= €15.625 per hour.

What is hairy about that? (and that's assuming the wrong hours imo, given that we were told they worked 'til dark').

edit: see above. ~ 10.5 hours per day * 2 men * 2 days = 42 hours for €500.
~ €11.90 ph.

Again, not exactly hairy imo.

Only one was the brickie. He paid his labourer himself. Dont know how much he paid him.

This fella has been a brickie for 30 years.
Im sure there are more expensive brickies, but im 100% certain there are more who are the same or less expensive. Thats just my experience.

But im also 100% sure a surgeon in a hospital is on more money than him.
Never mind a surgeon with 30 years. Dying to know how much this surgeon is on thats getting paid less than that.

Villa05

OfflerCrocGod wrote:

Where were the claims that building costs could/will be slashed by a third? Is that including site cost and taxes? Seems optimistic...

I think the proposal is to build on state owned land ie hand over state land to developers.

Great country if your in with the in crowd. Those donations to political parties are really productive

Bob24

Villa05 wrote: »

I think the proposal is to build on state owned land ie hand over state land to developers.

Sorry?? What???!!!

Do you have a source for this or is it just rumours?

Villa05

I believe the plan is to hand over state land and get developers in to build a mix of social/affordable and private housing in a public private partnership arrangement.
Thats what aaa/pbp were highlighting during the week

This arrangement overrides budgetary constraints under eu law

Sad Professor

Here's the relevant section from the plan. Looks like a competitive tender with state land as the "prize".



While I don't doubt that Coveney really wants to solve this crisis, I think this is another disaster in the making.

Villa05

Sad Professor wrote:

While I don't doubt that Coveney really wants to solve this crisis, I think this is another disaster in the making.

How difficult would it be to implement the northern ireland system of certifying houses thereby saving circa 24,500 per unit.

How difficult would it be to set up a semi - private company with the remit of building critical infrastructure including housing that can source finance cheaply and eliminate sub contracting and profiteering.

Its not rocket science to sort this out.

The_Conductor

Villa05 wrote: »

How difficult would it be to implement the northern ireland system of certifying houses thereby saving circa 24,500 per unit.

How difficult would it be to set up a semi - private company with the remit of building critical infrastructure including housing that can source finance cheaply and eliminate sub contracting and profiteering.

Its not rocket science to sort this out.

The issue has been how to implement this without it pumping up our current expenditure levels (we've been warned to keep to our sanctioned budget- or excessive budget mechanisms (i.e. fines) will accrue against us). The flipside of this argument- is these properties should be viewed as capital expenditure and dealt with exclusive of current expenditure- however, the mechanism whereby tenants can purchase properties at a significant discount to open market prices- is being held up to dispute this attempt.

Also- Irish Water was supposed to be setup in pretty much the manner in which you're suggesting- and look where that got us (I mean with official borrowings- and on the State's balance sheet- rather than as an independent entity). If there is so much as a whiff of the scheme being state funded- if it can't be shown to be majority self financing (i.e. greater than 50%)- it gets added back onto the States books. Can you see people being willing to pay for critical state infrastructure- or even a meaningful gesture towards it- when the perception is that they are already paying for it in general taxation?

Structuring capital intensive projects in an Irish context- has proved extremely controversial- and we have quite a uniquely poor history of doing so- particularly with schemes where state resources are being handed out as candy to investors- look at our oil and gas industry for a prime example of this.

I have no doubt that Minister Coveney has the very best of intentions with his plans- however, the devil will be in the detail- and unfortunately history hasn't been kind on government interventions (in this jurisdiction)...........

Cuddlesworth

Monife wrote: »

Why is it that 20 years ago, a 3 bed semi-d in a decent area could be bought for £50,000, then sold for €325,000 10 years later and currently cost around €350,000. Even with inflation, deflation etc how have building costs increased so dramatically?

So now it costs 7 times more to buy an average house than it did 20 years ago however wages have not increased by 7 times!

That semi-D when built was incredibly simple.

Brick walls with plasterboard dropped on top. Single outlets per room, no insulation, crap heating, probably single glazed windows etc, etc. The skill sets for the workers were far less then now, as were the wages. Most houses built 30+ years ago have had fortunes spent on them bring them up to modern standards. Most older houses I look at now, I have 30-50k in mind when considering modernising them.

There are huge fundimental differences between a modern house and a older build, with insulation and heating being the main good points and a extreme lack of land being the bad.

People claim there are noise issues in new houses but everybody looks at the situation with rose tinted glasses. Carpets in houses are pretty much dead, decent floating wooden flooring is rare, we have more devices that make constant noise, TV's in multiple rooms attached to walls, better speakers on them. People who are more inclined to turn them up. Phones, tablets, hi-fi docks.

Insulation standards mean noise is more likely to travel within the structures then transfer out as most are now air-gapped from external walls. Triple glazing, firedoors. Sound has to go somewhere, be absorbed into something.

Villa05

Notable announcment during the week of the construction of 450 council houses in 8 seperate areas. It strikes me that many of the areas mentioned do not have a shortage of houses and they could be purchased on the open market at considerably less €222,222 unit cost being spent on these units

EIGHT LOCATIONS HAVE been chosen to house 450 new social housing units that are scheduled for completion in about three to four years.
The Department of the Environment says the new units are to be developed through a public private partnership with a total investment of €100 million.
Three of the sites are located in Cork with one each in the cities of Galway and Waterford. There is a further one site each in counties Clare, Kildare and Roscommon.
The locations are:

• The Walk, Roscommon Town (53 units)
• The Miles, Clonakilty (50 units)
• Slievekeale, Waterford City (50 units)
• Ballyburke, Galway City (73 units)
• Shannon East, Co. Clare (50-60 units)
• Poundhill, Skibbereen (50 units)
• Oakwood, Macroom (50-60 units)
• Butterstream, Clane (80 units)

http://www.thejournal.ie/social-housing-plan-2-2889351-Jul2016/

Roscommon!! Really
Co Cork 3 Locations, Co Cork had one of the highest number of Ghost estates in the country
Shannon: 220K would buy you a fine house on the open market
Waterfoed City: Daft currently showing 63 - 3 bed properties for less than 175K

Smells like a bailout for developers all over again

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/john-mcmanus-housing-plan-looks-very-like-a-bailout-for-big-builders-1.2731701

It represents a massive subsidy for an industry that is fundamentally uncompetitive because it has overpaid for land and is now sitting on sites, refusing to develop and playing chicken with the Government. Those who worship market forces would argue these builders should all be made go bust and the price of land should drop, allowing profitable house-building by new entrants. In a socialist version of this fantasy, the State would then spend €500 million building 200,000 council houses.
It doesn’t really matter because neither of these things are going to happen. It may not be the Government’s intention but the housing plan looks like a massive State bailout for an industry that is being protected from the consequences of its mistakes. Sound familiar?

audi12

Villa05 wrote: »

Notable announcment during the week of the construction of 450 council houses in 8 seperate areas. It strikes me that many of the areas mentioned do not have a shortage of houses and they could be purchased on the open market at considerably less €222,222 unit cost being spent on these units


http://www.thejournal.ie/social-housing-plan-2-2889351-Jul2016/

Roscommon!! Really
Co Cork 3 Locations, Co Cork had one of the highest number of Ghost estates in the country
Shannon: 220K would buy you a fine house on the open market
Waterfoed City: Daft currently showing 63 - 3 bed properties for less than 175K

Smells like a bailout for developers all over again

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/john-mcmanus-housing-plan-looks-very-like-a-bailout-for-big-builders-1.2731701

Does anyone have a clue whats going to happen with the market there is 50 different things going on with brexit the housing plan etc small price rises until the new houses come on stream then a static market.

cnocbui

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

That semi-D when built was incredibly simple.

Brick walls with plasterboard dropped on top. Single outlets per room, no insulation, crap heating, probably single glazed windows etc, etc. The skill sets for the workers were far less then now, as were the wages. Most houses built 30+ years ago have had fortunes spent on them bring them up to modern standards. Most older houses I look at now, I have 30-50k in mind when considering modernising them.

There are huge fundimental differences between a modern house and a older build, with insulation and heating being the main good points and a extreme lack of land being the bad.

People claim there are noise issues in new houses but everybody looks at the situation with rose tinted glasses. Carpets in houses are pretty much dead, decent floating wooden flooring is rare, we have more devices that make constant noise, TV's in multiple rooms attached to walls, better speakers on them. People who are more inclined to turn them up. Phones, tablets, hi-fi docks.

Insulation standards mean noise is more likely to travel within the structures then transfer out as most are now air-gapped from external walls. Triple glazing, firedoors. Sound has to go somewhere, be absorbed into something.

And that is why there is a place for carpets, large rugs, heavy curtains, large bookcases. All will absorb sound very effectively and acoustically deaden a home.

Villa05

audi12 wrote:

Does anyone have a clue whats going to happen with the market there is 50 different things going on with brexit the housing plan etc small price rises until the new houses come on stream then a static market.

The only guarantee is that Government is going to make it worse.
I can't see too many people paying after tax money with interest to live next door to a person that is heavily subsidised and paying little or nothing for their accommodation.

To add to this conundrum should their be serious anti social behaviour, there does not seem to be any repercussions for the perpetrator and in extreme examples the perpetrators become the rulers of the estate.
These occurrences are not rare either. The person who is paying through the nose for their property is left with a worthless asset and probably a bloody nose.

audi12

Villa05 wrote: »

The only guarantee is that Government is going to make it worse.
I can't see too many people paying after tax money with interest to live next door to a person that is heavily subsidised and paying little or nothing for their accommodation.

To add to this conundrum should their be serious anti social behaviour, there does not seem to be any repercussions for the perpetrator and in extreme examples the perpetrators become the rulers of the estate.
These occurrences are not rare either. The person who is paying through the nose for their property is left with a worthless asset and probably a bloody nose.

will all the social housing coming online not keep down the prices of the other houses in estates or will it matter. Hearing a lot about social housing seems to be ideal houses are the same as everyone elses and people living in them can buy them at a discount whats the catch what stops most of us applying for one.

Hollister11

There still are bargains to be found out there.

At the moment there are 2 * 2 bed, and 1 * 3 bed apartments in Baldoyle, 5 minute walk from the train station and 10 minutes walk to two bus routes, for 190K. Rental on these would easily be a year month.

But its worth bearing in mind that these were selling for the lower end of 100K 5 years back.

Hollister11

The_Conductor wrote: »

Cash into their hands- and they worked a regular day- not a 16 hour day?
When you actually sit down and enumerate things- it gets very hairy, very quickly.......... (My sis is an SHO in Temple Street)

Just because a client pays cash, doesn't mean the money doesn't go through the books.

audi12

Hollister11 wrote: »

There still are bargains to be found out there.

At the moment there are 2 * 2 bed, and 1 * 3 bed apartments in Baldoyle, 5 minute walk from the train station and 10 minutes walk to two bus routes, for 190K. Rental on these would easily be 1500 a year.

But its worth bearing in mind that these were selling for the lower end of 100K 5 years back.

what were they making in the boom

Villa05

audi12 wrote:

will all the social housing coming online not keep down the prices of the other houses in estates or will it matter. Hearing a lot about social housing seems to be ideal houses are the same as everyone elses and people living in them can buy them at a discount whats the catch what stops most of us applying for one.

My point is that with the conditions attached. Will they actually find someone to build them. I'm not so sure

Its not all council it's about council/affordable and private houses built in the same area.

I don't think we are ready for that given the lack of action against the few that destroy it for the many

audi12

Villa05 wrote: »

My point is that with the conditions attached. Will they actually find someone to build them. I'm not so sure

Its not all council it's about council/affordable and private houses built in the same area.

I don't think we are ready for that given the lack of action against the few that destroy it for the many

Are nama not building a lot of them

Hollister11

audi12 wrote: »

what were they making in the boom

They were built during the boom.

I don't know what they were fetching back then, probably similar levels.

OfflerCrocGod

If the choice is pay ~€1500 in rent or pay ~€1000 in mortgage payments I think you will find people will buy these new houses and just hope that things turn out OK in their estate. You also need to take into account the poor quality and maintenance record of the rental stock in Ireland. It's hard to tell if a house is social or rented sometimes.

Villa05

audi12 wrote:

Are nama not building a lot of them

They are building for the upper end of the market

riclad

You have to have at least 2 kids to get a house plus be on the housing list.basically be on welfare and have a low income .say you go on the list tommorow,
it could be 5 years before you move in.
Theres a good article in the irish times ,
it says government wants to keep house prices high.
Irish building companys own lots of land ,which they grossly overpaid for .
The new plan may raise prices as it gives 10k to first time buyers .
At least in the boom, if an estate was built , the social housing was built
at the back ,in a corner.
there was not council units mixed in at random with private housing .
IT seems to cost 200k to build a council house,
even though councils already own the sites .
I don,t think social housing will have a big effect on house prices ,
or will not bring them down.
As the people on welfare are not in the market to buy a private house.
And they be maybe a few 1000 houses built in each year.
The article says irish builders own land but are waiting
on the government to take action .
And social housing tends to be built in certain areas,
not much chance of getting a social house in rathmines
or blackrock.

yqtwqxqm

Having grown up in a council estate I gotta say that I would never want to buy a house in an estate where there is social housing.
If I had a choice of two houses and one was a new build but in an estate where the council had bought houses and the other was second hand but in an estate the council had nothing to do with I would choose the latter.
Even thought the council estate I grew up in wasnt near as bad as the neighbouring ones there were still all of the problems one is used to seeing in them.

I have several friends who would be very annoyed at me talking like this, but they are the ones who still live in council houses. Anyone who got out of them would never ever go back, especially people with young children.

athtrasna

Can we get back on topic please

Arcade_Tryer

yqtwqxqm wrote: »

Having grown up in a council estate I gotta say that I would never want to buy a house in an estate where there is social housing.
If I had a choice of two houses and one was a new build but in an estate where the council had bought houses and the other was second hand but in an estate the council had nothing to do with I would choose the latter.
Even thought the council estate I grew up in wasnt near as bad as the neighbouring ones there were still all of the problems one is used to seeing in them.

I have several friends who would be very annoyed at me talking like this, but they are the ones who still live in council houses. Anyone who got out of them would never ever go back, especially people with young children.

Surely that's why all of the experts stress the importance of locating social housing in market driven areas? A housing mix of sorts.

yqtwqxqm

Arcade_Tryer wrote: »

Surely that's why all of the experts stress the importance of locating social housing in market driven areas? A housing mix of sorts.

The term "experts" does not apply. Not once when they have interfered in any aspect of the property market have they not done more harm than good.

Sure maybe they will improve the chances of people getting a council house, but thats not really the end of the property market you need to be getting into shape.

Its getting to the point (if its not there already for a good chunk of the population) where we will all be working our asses to give social housing to people and not be able to provide a life for ourselves after that.

The property market is dead in a lot of locations in Ireland. Use these locations for social housing and leave the property market alone in other areas. If they left it alone long enough to shake itself out then it will be a normal market eventually. No more of this build like mfrs and then bust with no building again. Stop the useless and harmful interference of the government in the property sector.

audi12

riclad wrote: »

You have to have at least 2 kids to get a house plus be on the housing list.basically be on welfare and have a low income .say you go on the list tommorow,
it could be 5 years before you move in.
Theres a good article in the irish times ,
it says government wants to keep house prices high.
Irish building companys own lots of land ,which they grossly overpaid for .
The new plan may raise prices as it gives 10k to first time buyers .
At least in the boom, if an estate was built , the social housing was built
at the back ,in a corner.
there was not council units mixed in at random with private housing .
IT seems to cost 200k to build a council house,
even though councils already own the sites .
I don,t think social housing will have a big effect on house prices ,
or will not bring them down.
As the people on welfare are not in the market to buy a private house.
And they be maybe a few 1000 houses built in each year.
The article says irish builders own land but are waiting
on the government to take action .
And social housing tends to be built in certain areas,
not much chance of getting a social house in rathmines
or blackrock.

where does it say 10 k will be given to first time buyers when all these houses are built house prices will have to stall or fall if demand is met or exceeded when you include the property which is second hand on the market at the minute.