Property Market 2016

OfflerCrocGod

Gross margin of 16.5% for Cairn Homes http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0825/811825-cairn-homes-h1/ that's a reasonable margin by the looks of it (I haven't dug into the figures to see if it's a clean figure). Builders don't need tax incentives based on those figures. For a house in Parkside selling for 320,000 that's them breaking even at 275,000 or so? So the selling prices aren't outrageous either, all we need are more sites, margins and prices are OK as they are.

Obviously this is for one house builder, the story might be different for others.

riclad

I Read some builders/companys bought site in 200-2007 bought landbanks for very high prices ,
they would need to sell houses for 300k plus to make a profit which is
not viable in the current market .
One example the glass bottle site is worth maybe 20 per cent the price paid for it in 2005.
Even in dublin prices have not recovered ,
my friends house was worth 230k, in 2006 ,its now worth 100k.
So they can write off millions or just maybe wait and see do prices increase or will the government give builders more tax credits to build .
on their accounts site x is still worth 20 million even though it would only
get 4million if sold in 2016 .

Sites were priced a x price in 2002 based on the fact you could sell any semi d house for 200k.
one house builder is selling new apartments in ballymun for 140k,built in 2016
i think he got the land from the council for nothing.

willbeuptuesday

Just off the phone with an Estate Agent who informed me that there is strong growth in the Dublin market at the moment. Is this true do any of you have examples of this. I am thinking of selling my 3 bed semi in the Griffeen area of Lucan and he told me that a house in my estate went up for sale last week at 289k and has an offer of 300k, he said he would not be supprised if it made 310k. This to me is some acceleration and I am not sure is he spoofing me to get my business. I did push him on his figures and he said that there is 20% less houses for sale in the area than this time last year and it was effecting prices. I will be interested to hear what all of you have to say. Thanks

The_Conductor

willbeuptuesday wrote: »

Just off the phone with an Estate Agent who informed me that there is strong growth in the Dublin market at the moment. Is this true do any of you have examples of this. I am thinking of selling my 3 bed semi in the Griffeen area of Lucan and he told me that a house in my estate went up for sale last week at 289k and has an offer of 300k, he said he would not be supprised if it made 310k. This to me is some acceleration and I am not sure is he spoofing me to get my business. I did push him on his figures and he said that there is 20% less houses for sale in the area than this time last year and it was effecting prices. I will be interested to hear what all of you have to say. Thanks

If you want to sell in the Lucan area at all- do it right here, right now.
They have given accelerated planning permission for 2,000 units at the 12th Lock. Once they start coming on stream the shortage in the Lucan area will be somewhat satiated...........

What he is saying about a shortage in Lucan- is true- and its a similar story on the rental side.

One sticking point in all of this- most of the local panel of valuers are not playing ball with current prices- if you want to sell- you're better off going with a cashbuyer- as someone relying on a mortgage is going to have trouble justifying the price to a prospective lender.

Hollister11

I know 2 people who have bought houses on the Northside in the last month. The two of them were listed at 450K, weeks later there gone sale agreed at 470K, and 490K.

draiochtanois

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mirrorwall14

I've been watching the market in north kildare for over a year (I'm currently sale agreed) and prices are far far higher than this time last year. If you get two people interested which you are because of supply, the prices are going waaay above asking very fast

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

OfflerCrocGod

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Even Cairn's CEO thinks there isn't need for government tax cuts http://www.independent.ie/business/cairn-homes-ceo-says-no-need-for-a-vat-cut-to-build-affordable-housing-35000213.html

UK builders are now on the low 20s in gross margin terms which is a function of the messed up housing market in the UK. If Irish builders reach those figures it will be down to serious issues in the housing market. Gross margins of 10-15% are perfectly reasonable and should be attractive enough to generate new houses.

StiffOldMan

Hollister11 wrote: »

I know 2 people who have bought houses on the Northside in the last month. The two of them were listed at 450K, weeks later there gone sale agreed at 470K, and 490K.

Does that make anyone else p**ed off? Obviously flipping without lifting a finger!

Michael D Not Higgins

StiffOldMan wrote: »

Does that make anyone else p**ed off? Obviously flipping without lifting a finger!

I don't think he meant they were flipping them. He's giving examples of properties going above asking.

Hollister11

StiffOldMan wrote: »

Does that make anyone else p**ed off? Obviously flipping without lifting a finger!

They weren't being flipped. They just sold above the asking price.

handlemaster

The indo had predictions of 7% growth for dublin this year and hakf that for the rest of the country. I note the guys who were predicting another property crash have gone all quiet. Also the guys saying when the cash buyers drop out there will be a drop have disappeared.

asteroids over berlin

I think they will keep steadily rising in the dublin area, particularly within the postcode areas and obviously properties with relatively easy access to motor ways, public transport, shopping centres etc. A new 3 bed house these days in such a location is easing over 400 - 450 minimum ese days, bit crazy but if you look at London.........i think we are heading that way

The_Conductor

handlemaster wrote: »

The indo had predictions of 7% growth for dublin this year and hakf that for the rest of the country. I note the guys who were predicting another property crash have gone all quiet. Also the guys saying when the cash buyers drop out there will be a drop have disappeared.

I think 7% is entirely foreseeable for the Dublin market- driven by scarcity- nothing else. The joker in all of this- is the cashbuyers- who are monthly increasing their share of Dublin market- while the polar opposite is happening in the rest of the country.......... How or where these cashbuyers are coming out of the woodwork from- mystifies me- who'd have thought there would be so many at this late stage in the day?

Local Authority Housing supplies not now expected to come on stream in any sort of volume before at very least Q2 2017 (and even then- not in the Dublin market).............

Scarcity is pretty much the sole factor driving the Dublin market- lots of people obviously sat on the sidelines- and are showing their hands. Who'd have imagined the percentage of cashbuyers would have shot up in this manner in Dublin though.

Annecdotally- from talking to a few estate agents in South and West Dublin- its not first time buyers- its people who sold some time ago, have been renting since- and are now leaping at whatever they can find- as inflation is eroding their buying power.

The fact that its entirely possible that we may have a Dublin house price increase of between 7 and 8.5% this year- is an indictment of government policies- and should, I hope, serve as klaxon call to the Minister that he needs to get projects up and running ASAP..........

Villa05

The_Conductor wrote:

Annecdotally- from talking to a few estate agents in South and West Dublin- its not first time buyers- its people who sold some time ago, have been renting since- and are now leaping at whatever they can find- as inflation is eroding their buying power.

"Better buy now before they go out of reach"

Sounds familiar with prices and rents unaffordable for many workers

dubrov

The boom is definitely back when people are talking about forecasts from the Indo as meaningful information.

OfflerCrocGod

I presume most of these price increases are happening in the south side? From what I can tell D15 hasn't had much in the way of price increases in a year, there must be well over 1000 homes and apartments coming on stream there in the next few years.

Staph

They're affecting the north side too. I've just got my keys, but when I was looking they were definitely creeping up. There also appears to be less property available, so this will also increase prices.

Rew

The_Conductor wrote: »

I think 7% is entirely foreseeable for the Dublin market- driven by scarcity- nothing else. The joker in all of this- is the cashbuyers- who are monthly increasing their share of Dublin market- while the polar opposite is happening in the rest of the country.......... How or where these cashbuyers are coming out of the woodwork from- mystifies me- who'd have thought there would be so many at this late stage in the day?

Local Authority Housing supplies not now expected to come on stream in any sort of volume before at very least Q2 2017 (and even then- not in the Dublin market).............

Scarcity is pretty much the sole factor driving the Dublin market- lots of people obviously sat on the sidelines- and are showing their hands. Who'd have imagined the percentage of cashbuyers would have shot up in this manner in Dublin though.

Annecdotally- from talking to a few estate agents in South and West Dublin- its not first time buyers- its people who sold some time ago, have been renting since- and are now leaping at whatever they can find- as inflation is eroding their buying power.

We sold over a year ago and have been renting. We have been at a few viewings recently and seen it all, stuff going for mad money and ones around the corner sitting on the market with no interest. Every time I think I have a handle on it it swings the other way.

There is one house near us asking €795 with offers of €730. Viewed a house on the same road on Saturday that just came up. Chatting to the EA he says the €795 house was for sale last year (we knew this already) and previously the year before that (2014) which we didn't know and had turned down €830 at the time. EA we were talking to had ended up selling another house on the road to the €830 bidder for €970.

I found it very interesting that the same house is attracting €100k less 2 years later and that the EA who is had sold a house on that road for €970k in 2014 is marketing a similar one at €730k now.

Its only one road but interesting all the same.

Rew

Also a friend selling a house down the country in a college town has just gone Sale Agreed to an buyer based in Asia for cash. Id love to know if Irish property is attracting much Asian money.

Hollister11

It's mad money altogether, but there is a feeling the boom is coming back. In Dublin anyway.
There is an awful demand for property in both the sales, and rental market. Construction is up, unemployment is dramatically decreasing. There's businesses opening up constantly, and it just feels like everyone seems to have money again.

In the next couple of years, I think we will start to see the big players back in the building game.

mel123

What are the banks doing with all their stock? Or should i say why are they sitting on all the stock?
The amount of bank owned property sitting there doing nothing is crazy when there is a shortage. When the property could be getting sold they dont even have it up for sale its just lying empty.

Anyone any thoughts?

whiskeyman

mel123 wrote: »

What are the banks doing with all their stock? Or should i say why are they sitting on all the stock?
The amount of bank owned property sitting there doing nothing is crazy when there is a shortage. When the property could be getting sold they dont even have it up for sale its just lying empty.

Anyone any thoughts?

Perhaps waiting for the prices to go even higher for a better return?

Zzippy

mel123 wrote: »

What are the banks doing with all their stock? Or should i say why are they sitting on all the stock?
The amount of bank owned property sitting there doing nothing is crazy when there is a shortage. When the property could be getting sold they dont even have it up for sale its just lying empty.

Anyone any thoughts?

Possibly waiting for what they think peak prices will be then sell to maximise the return?

Caliden

What about all the NAMA properties that aren't for sale:

https://www.nama.ie/property/?propertytype=Residential+&forsale=N&country=Ireland&county=Co.+Dublin&postcode=anyall&townarea=anyall&tccheckbox=on


And that's just Dublin (~105)

Rew

mel123 wrote: »

What are the banks doing with all their stock? Or should i say why are they sitting on all the stock?
The amount of bank owned property sitting there doing nothing is crazy when there is a shortage. When the property could be getting sold they dont even have it up for sale its just lying empty.

Anyone any thoughts?

Are they sitting on stock? I have no love for the banks but its very hard for banks to repossess and sell property in this country. If anything I would say its such a long drawn out process for them that they simply cant get though it a pace to clear the backlog. There own internal red tape doesn't help of course.

Rew

Caliden wrote: »

What about all the NAMA properties that aren't for sale:

https://www.nama.ie/property/?propertytype=Residential+&forsale=N&country=Ireland&county=Co.+Dublin&postcode=anyall&townarea=anyall&tccheckbox=on


And that's just Dublin (~105)

We looked at buying a Nama property last year. We didn't bid in the end but they were sold (sale agreed at least). I check the list of not for sale there and the property is on it so that list includes stuff thats sale agreed.

frankythefish

i think the way the prices have gone have surprised a lot. I was never sure what would happen in truth. i know a few like audi12 and others were adamant prices would crash straight after brexit. not having a go at them as i realise none of us are geniuses when it comes to these things but it just goes to show you

mel123

Rew wrote: »

Are they sitting on stock? I have no love for the banks but its very hard for banks to repossess and sell property in this country. If anything I would say its such a long drawn out process for them that they simply cant get though it a pace to clear the backlog. There own internal red tape doesn't help of course.

Yes they are sitting on a lot of stock. I have heard this from a number of sources that i would believe to be very reliable (one is a friend who works in property management).

A friend of mine was renting a house that went up for sale (all above board, estate agents involved etc) because the LL went in to default or whatever. She really liked the house, put an offer in and went sale agreed. This went on i think for 18 months - nothing from the bank re what was happening. Eventually the bank came back and said no the sale is off, receivers will be in touch. The property was being sold at market value (at the time), now granted they could probably get more now, in the grand scheme of things they have to pay receivers, auctioneers, solicitors etc all over again instead of just selling her the house. Its like no one does anything sensible in these banks!!