Property Market 2016

mel123

mel123 wrote: »

Yes they are sitting on a lot of stock. I have heard this from a number of sources that i would believe to be very reliable (one is a friend who works in property management).

A friend of mine was renting a house that went up for sale (all above board, estate agents involved etc) because the LL went in to default or whatever. She really liked the house, put an offer in and went sale agreed. This went on i think for 18 months - nothing from the bank re what was happening. Eventually the bank came back and said no the sale is off, receivers will be in touch. The property was being sold at market value (at the time), now granted they could probably get more now, in the grand scheme of things they have to pay receivers, auctioneers, solicitors etc all over again instead of just selling her the house. Its like no one does anything sensible in these banks!!

Central Bank ought to be most reliable (one would hope)

Deleted User wrote: »

What kind of numbers are we expecting?

https://www.centralbank.ie/polstats/stats/mortgagearrears/Documents/2016q1_ie_mortgage_arrears_statistics.pdf

Looks like they are making an effort to divest themselves of houses...

Page 5

During the quarter 391 properties were disposed of

As a result, lenders were in possession of 1,784 PDH properties at end-March 2016.

Page 8

During Q1 2016 284 properties were disposed of.

As a result, lenders were in possession of 685 BTL properties at end-March 2016..

Pretty decent turnover rates I'd have thought? (And a low enough actual number)

I'm not sure the 'banks are sitting on stock' argument adds up.

mel123

Deleted User wrote: »

Central Bank ought to be most reliable (one would hope)



I'm not sure the 'banks are sitting on stock' argument adds up.

Certainly central bank would be a reliable source, however, we all know how much the banks have covered up, so i would certainly tend to believe 'real people', with 'real' stories.

Was just a genuine question if anyone had any theories on why banks sit on stock. You dont believe they do which is fair enough.

Hollister11

A ex neighbour of mine had here house repossesed last May. It's been sitting idle ever since, and the prices in the area have shot up about 30K.

The_Conductor

Caliden wrote: »

What about all the NAMA properties that aren't for sale:

https://www.nama.ie/property/?propertytype=Residential+&forsale=N&country=Ireland&county=Co.+Dublin&postcode=anyall&townarea=anyall&tccheckbox=on


And that's just Dublin (~105)

NAMA owns the loans- on which the properties 'not for sale' are collatoral.
If the loans are performing- the agency has no call on the assets on which the loans are secured.
If the loans become delinquint (not being paid as agreed)- then the agency can sell the underlying assets.

Just because NAMA lists the properties on its books- does not mean they are necessarily for sale.

Rew

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0912/816030-ecb-non-performing-mortgages/

The ECB report says "the high volume of cases moving through the Irish judicial system and the timelines associated with the repossession process primarily for primary dwelling home mortgages are a key challenge for Irish banks and their ability to repossess."

The_Conductor

Rew wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0912/816030-ecb-non-performing-mortgages/

Yep.
We have the highest percentage of non-performing residential loans in Europe- the ECB reckons we have 20% non-performing residential loans- against an EU average level of 7%.

The_Conductor

The_Conductor wrote: »

Yep.
We have the highest percentage of non-performing residential loans in Europe- the ECB reckons we have 20% non-performing residential loans- against an EU average level of 7%.

The Central Bank report detailed earlier has vastly different figures (Mortgages - see page 2 ~ 8% down from a peak 12.9% in Sep '13).

https://www.centralbank.ie/polstats/stats/mortgagearrears/Documents/2016q1_ie_mortgage_arrears_statistics.pdf

I imagine that the ECB figure (almost 20%) must be including a lot of other forms of debt. And that a lot of the arrears on those forms must be terribly precarious to be able to drag the overall percentage to such a level given the far-more-reasonable-but-still-too-high Mortgage figures.

gaius c

For the purposes of the central bank report, a newly recapitalised mortgage in arrears is fully back in compliance and vanishes from the arrears stats...

Until it immediately slips back into arrears again.

gaius c

And rather crucially, the clock is also reset on the length of time it has been in arrears. It's a great way of "disappearing" long term arrears.

Not the first time the euros are calling shenanigans on our ab(use) of stats.

gaius c

gaius c wrote: »

For the purposes of the central bank report, a newly recapitalised mortgage in arrears is fully back in compliance and vanishes from the arrears stats...

Until it immediately slips back into arrears again.

alarming

OfflerCrocGod

gaius c wrote: »

And rather crucially, the clock is also reset on the length of time it has been in arrears. It's a great way of "disappearing" long term arrears.

Not the first time the euros are calling shenanigans on our ab(use) of stats.

From http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0913/816235-number-of-mortgage-accounts-in-arrears-falls/

Over 120,000 mortgage accounts on principal dwellings were classified as restructured at the end of June.

Of these, 88% were considered to be meeting the terms of their restructure arrangement.

jay0109

The only way is up...

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0913/816275-coveney-housing-comments/

Speaking on RTÉ’s News at One, Mr Coveney said he believed there would be specific supports for first time buyers in next month's budget.
Mr Coveney suggested the support would be along the lines of a first-time buyer’s grant, through a tax rebate system, but that the extent of it is still being finalised.

:eek:

Utah

The Irish Times said it would be backdated to July too. Suits me!

Johngoose

First time buyers to be sorted out in next budget...
http://m.rte.ie/news/2016/0913/816275-coveney-housing-comments/

Johngoose

Johngoose wrote: »

First time buyers to be sorted out in next budget...
http://m.rte.ie/news/2016/0913/816275-coveney-housing-comments/

It has been posted already sorry

ThisRegard

Utah wrote: »

The Irish Times said it would be backdated to July too. Suits me!

I don't see it on the mobile site but they'd need to announce this officially sooner rather than later in order to prevent stagnation in the market.

Buyers will be balls, I'll wait until the budget.

Potential sellers will be balls, my market won't be there for a while, I'll hold off.

And when the time comes buyers might be a bit freeier with their budgets then, possibly feeding into the sellers putting their property up for higher then what they may do now.

whiskeyman

Johngoose wrote: »

First time buyers to be sorted out in next budget...
http://m.rte.ie/news/2016/0913/816275-coveney-housing-comments/

FFS... buyers help my arse.
I'm currently a FTB, and I know this will push prices up further

matrim

The basis for this FTB help was first announced in July at the time all they said was that they would bring in something and that anything brought in would be backdated to July.

The_Conductor

They're going to have to be damn careful how they structure this- they're already helping FTBs by allowing them a much smaller deposit requirement than other groups- if the perception is that FTBs have extra dosh in their pockets- prices will simply rise to take into account the extra cash they have at their disposal.

The whole premise is flawed- and the only solution- is to build more residential units- of types people want- where people want to live.

This whole thing about giving cash incentives or advantages to one group of people- over other prospective purchasers- is a smoke screen- and completely and utterly meaningless- in the absence of suitable property coming on stream in reasonable volume. This is what we need.

The_Conductor

The_Conductor wrote: »

....the only solution ... is to build more residential units- of types people want- where people want to live.......

.

Idioteque

From the RTE article linked earlier...

"The minister said that a pilot project for local authorities and housing bodies is being put in place that will allow them to offer people who own vacant properties up to five years rent upfront.

This would, he said, enable them to refurbish the houses and get them "rent ready"."

I just spat my tea out....now that one will be a minefield and ripe for some shenanigans!!

keane2097

The FTB help idea is just a populist sop, hopefully preceding measures that will actually be helpful.

I find it very hard to believe Coveney and co aren't fully aware that measures like this just lead to inflation. With that in mind this is at best a cynical attempt to curry favour among people who don't think about this stuff deeply to be followed by more sensible measures designed to actually alleviate the issues.

At worst it's another pointer to a nauseating notion I saw on Twitter lately, which is that soaring property and rent prices aren't a result of government policy, they are government policy.

kippy

keane2097 wrote: »

The FTB help idea is just a populist sop, hopefully preceding measures that will actually be helpful.

I find it very hard to believe Coveney and co aren't fully aware that measures like this just lead to inflation. With that in mind this is at best a cynical attempt to curry favour among people who don't think about this stuff deeply to be followed by more sensible measures designed to actually alleviate the issues.

At worst it's another pointer to a nauseating notion I saw on Twitter lately, which is that soaring property and rent prices aren't a result of government policy, they are government policy.

Ultimately NAMA and the banks cannot return a "profit"(I use that term extremely loosely) without a rising property market.
Banks and other institutions are sitting on vacant property at the moment waiting for prices to reach a suitable level to sell into. This is the type of behavior that should be stamped out, but it is difficult to do so when it is the state as a whole that loses of if it is.

kippy

Idioteque wrote: »

From the RTE article linked earlier...

"The minister said that a pilot project for local authorities and housing bodies is being put in place that will allow them to offer people who own vacant properties up to five years rent upfront.

This would, he said, enable them to refurbish the houses and get them "rent ready"."

I just spat my tea out....now that one will be a minefield and ripe for some shenanigans!!

Indeed.
It's got the same potential for widespread abuse, as NAMA had when it was setup and look how that has ended up.

keane2097

kippy wrote: »

Ultimately NAMA and the banks cannot return a "profit"(I use that term extremely loosely) without a rising property market.
Banks and other institutions are sitting on vacant property at the moment waiting for prices to reach a suitable level to sell into. This is the type of behavior that should be stamped out, but it is difficult to do so when it is the state as a whole that loses of if it is.

Where does that rabbit hole lead if it's a choice between the people of the state losing vs the state as a whole losing? Are they not the same thing in the end?

The_Conductor

Well- the flipside of that coin- is Manpower statistics in the UK were published earlier this week- which show an 800% increase in vacancies being notified in the financial sector- for Dublin based positions.......... Whether you like it or not- they are coming............ However......... most of these job holders are not interested in an entry level first time buyer apartment in the arse end of nowhere- they want something with all bells and whistles- very very central, in Dublin.

The First Time Buyer market- is being treated as a wholly independent market by the Minister (quelle suprise)- and the thinking is that it is not subject to the same constraints that other segments of the market are (aka- of those developments given fast track planning thus far- none are less than 50 minutes from Dublin city centre (and good luck getting a train at Sallins or Adamstown at peak times)............

Its all well and good giving First Time Buyers incentives (and I disagree vehemently with them- of course they'll simply drive prices up- you'd need to be quite insane to imagine otherwise)- however, stratifying and ghetto'ising the various market segments- when they are insistent that this was proven wrong in the social/local authority sector- seems to me to be an exercise in futility.

So- social tenants get assistance to live in their comfort zones- while first time buyers get told specific areas are being designed for them- and others- such as ye cash buyers- or the holders of these financial sector jobs coming over from London (I was actually surprised at how many French and Germans seem to be in the early cohorts- I'd have thought it would have been predominantly Irish and UK- but it appears not to be the case)- they want prime Dublin city centre locations- and there is a rush on a few select areas (Clonskeagh has had more enquiries in the last 8 weeks than pretty much ever before)............

It would seem to me- that the Minister is, knowingly or otherwise, attempting to micromanage the Dublin property market- and market forces are doing their utmost to defy his attempts (guess which side is going to win- it certainly isn't going to be the Minister..........)

Utah

ThisRegard wrote: »

I don't see it on the mobile site .

It’s been broadly signalled that some form of incentive is on the way for beleaguered first-time buyers, with Minister for Housing Simon Coveney indicating during the summer that it will likely be announced on budget day – although it is being prepared in conjunction with the Central Bank and its mortgage lending rules, so agreement will need to be reached on this.
What we know so far about the scheme is that it will be backdated to July 19th; it will likely be restricted to new builds up to a certain value; it could be worth up to €10,000 per couple; and it’s likely to be given in a “rebate” type format.

Not sure why the 19th though!

ThisRegard

Why new builds only?

ThisRegard

ThisRegard wrote: »

Why new builds only?

To encourage new builds. (Increase in supply)

A subtle effort at trying to subsidize new developments without Paul Murphy screaming from the rooftops about lining 'capitalist fat cats' pockets.

The_Conductor

Sorry for being so cynical- but I'll believe it, when I see it..........
We already have several hundred thousand people living in inappropriate/unsuitable accommodation- all around the country- from the government's last attempt to 'assist first-time buyers take a foot on the property ladder..........'

I, for one, don't see this ending well.........