STORM FRANK, Tuesday 29th-Wednesday 30th. Heavy Rain, Flooding and strong winds.

Bsal

29/12/15 1800z forecast surface winds in knots UKMO

Graces7

Woken again by rain song rather than birdsong.. I am bitterly disappointed. GERTY? Was hoping the next storm would be Grace....;) All seems fine for getting to town early today then back ready for the storm. AA map is still being worked on and the Kerry coco alert and map are blank So will trust that.Thanks for all the info and updates here all. Only practical problem is that my wellies are in the car and the car is in the shed and a fair wet trek between...

Graces7

Pretty, very calm and dry moonlit morning out there now and looking forward to my break from the house...

M.T. Cranium

The strongest winds are coming before the heaviest rain in this storm, for west Munster would expect the winds to peak around 6 to 9 p.m. while it may be as early as 3 to 6 p.m. for Clare and west Connacht. Heavy rain will develop a little after the peak of the windstorm and will continue as the winds ease overnight. If there is going to be significant flooding, I would expect it to develop around 0300-0900h on Wednesday 30th but keep your guard up before that, of course.

The storm for 1st of January is now on all guidance and looks fairly significant, whether they give it the name Gertrude or not remains to be seen.

Anyway, it was fortunate that Frank did not find a direct path to the west coast, some very strong winds will come and go in the vicinity of 15-20 W. Even so, peak gusts at Belmullet could reach 70 knots. I am expecting peak gusts of about 55 to 60 knots at other exposed west coast locations as well as parts of the south coast.

maquiladora

While all the attention is on big Frank....don't forget about the little secondary depression which some models are showing hitting the southwest tomorrow morning at it's peak and crossing the country.

976mb off the southwest coast on the ECM :



And here's how it looks on the hi-res ARPEGE :



A wedge of gusts up to 160 km/h into the southwest.



Just a possibility to keep an eye on.

pad199207

Yes and its the likes of them that catch people out! 160KMH winds are not to be sniffed at!

dmc17

Beautiful morning here in Clare. Not a puff of wind. Sinister looking sky though :cool:

KingdomRushed

With some blocking to north east, it looks like we are in for several more days of these storms disrupting in the vicinity of Ireland. I feel Frank, while not being especially severe in isolation, will be well remembered in Ireland unfortunately, as part of a whole, ie this never ending conveyer belt of winter storms. It must be near breaking point on many rivers today, and if not it certainly will be by Thursday, before we get battered again possibly. I don't see anything in the models to suggest that we are about to emerge from this pattern any time soon either, apart from a trend toward more colder zonality as jet stream goes a bit further south. Usually I'd be praying for snow at this time of year, but by god, I'd love nothing more than a stretch of dry and frosty, which interestingly seems to have become as rare as the snow itself. Through the 90s when we had snowless winters, they were often characterised by intermittent stretches of brutal frosts too, this current spell of winters since the 2010 snow, seem devoid of snow and hard frost, at least on the east coast.

RoisinD

Evelyn just saying on the Sean O'Rourke show that the 'sting' will affect Kerry, Clare and Galway as winds will be onshore with high tides and there will be some coastal flooding

Gaoth Laidir

We dodged a bullet alright. Met Éireann's aviation charts show 105-kt winds at 5000 ft well off our northwest coast later. At Belmullet is shows 75 knots at 2000 ft and 90 knots at 5000 ft. For the rest of the country 5-10 knots less.

Sigmets and Warnings.

●EISN SIGMET 01 VALID 290820/291220 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR SEV TURB FCST SW OF LINE N5300 W01500 - N5100 W01300 SFC/FL060 MOV NE AT 45KT INTSF=
●EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 291500/300700 SFC WIND SSE 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG OCNL 2917/2921 25-30 MAX 40-45 BECMG 2922/3001 SSW 35-40 290650=
●EIDW AD WRNG 02 VALID 291500/300700 SFC WIND SSE 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG OCNL 2917/2923 25-30 MAX 40-45 BECMG 2923/3001 SSW 20-25 MAX 35-40 290650=
●EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 291500/300700 SFC WIND S 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 2916/2918 30-35 MAX 50-55 BECMG 3000/3003 30-35 MAX 45-50 FCST =
●EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 291300/300100 SFC WIND SSE 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG OCNL 2914/2920 30-35 MAX 50-55 BECMG 2921/2924 S 25-30 MAX 40-45 =
●EIKN AD WRNG 01 VALID 291200/300300 SFC WIND SSE 25-30KT MAX 45-50 BECMG OCNL 2914/2922 30-35 MAX 50-55 =
●EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 291100/300300 SFC WIND S 25-30KT MAX 45-50 BECMG OCNL 2914/2924 30-35 MAX 50-55 CHECK TEXT NEW ENDING ADDED EIDBYBYX=

maquiladora

Winds don't look any stronger than a number of previous windy episodes we already had this year, and those strongest winds will only be in areas where those type of gusts are common every winter. I think a lot of people expecting this to be some kind of big storm will be saying "is that it?"

If that secondary low develops tomorrow morning like the ARPEGE shows then that's a different matter.

Otherwise, the main concern from this will be flooding.

The Nore is at it's highest point since 2009 now after yesterday's rain. This is not a good position to be in with almost a full 24 hours of rain on the way later today.

http://waterlevel.ie/0000015006/0001.png

B17G

maquiladora wrote: »

While all the attention is on big Frank....don't forget about the little secondary depression which some models are showing hitting the southwest tomorrow morning at it's peak and crossing the country.

976mb off the southwest coast on the ECM :



And here's how it looks on the hi-res ARPEGE :



A wedge of gusts up to 160 km/h into the southwest.



Just a possibility to keep an eye on.

Yip. For whatever reason the HIRLAM model page on the meteociel site hasn't updated since Saturday, but on the Estonian weather service site its showing a similar development with 50 kt wind barbs off the SW coast by 0700.

maquiladora

B17G wrote: »

Yip. For whatever reason the HIRLAM model page on the meteociel site hasn't updated since Saturday, but on the Estonian weather service site its showing a similar development with 50 kt wind barbs off the SW coast by 0700.

Yeah the HIRLAM shows it peaking tonight in the Atlantic before reaching the coast tomorrow, so wouldn't be as strong as on the 0Z ARPEGE.

It was down to 971mb at 9am this morning. So it's already on the way, just a question of whether it will still pack a punch by the time it reaches here.

Gaoth Laidir

B17G wrote: »

Yip. For whatever reason the HIRLAM model page on the meteociel site hasn't updated since Saturday, but on the Estonian weather service site its showing a similar development with 50 kt wind barbs off the SW coast by 0700.

06Z Icelandic Hirlam for tomorrow morning.

Gaoth Laidir

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah the HIRLAM shows it peaking tonight in the Atlantic before reaching the coast tomorrow, so wouldn't be as strong as on the 0Z ARPEGE.

It was down to 971mb at 9am this morning. So it's already on the way, just a question of whether it will still pack a punch by the time it reaches here.

There was a buoy pressure reading of 958 hPa in the vicinity at 9 am this morning.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=4&nav=Yes&lat=45N&lon=015W&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2015&mes=12&day=29&hora=9&min=0&vpr=Pr

mickger844posts

The Wxsim forecast software which runs on my site showing gusts to 84km/h for my location later this evening and tonight. I would say that's about right for this storm for here anyway.
Currently clouds building with winds to 40km/h

www.waterfordcityweather.com

Gaoth Laidir

mickger844posts wrote: »

The Wxsim forecast software which runs on my site showing gusts to 84km/h for my location later this evening and tonight. I would say that's about right for this storm for here anyway.
Currently clouds building with winds to 40km/h

www.waterfordcityweather.com

Waterford TAF (only up to 6 pm) has gusts to 51 knots this afternoon, so a bit stronger.

TAF EIWF 290800Z 2909/2918 22020KT 9999 SCT018 BKN035 BECMG 2909/2912 20023G35KT BECMG 2912/2915 18030G44KT BECMG 2916/2918 18036G51KT 7000 -RA BR BKN011=

mickger844posts

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Waterford TAF (only up to 6 pm) has gusts to 51 knots this afternoon, so a bit stronger.

TAF EIWF 290800Z 2909/2918 22020KT 9999 SCT018 BKN035 BECMG 2909/2912 20023G35KT BECMG 2912/2915 18030G44KT BECMG 2916/2918 18036G51KT 7000 -RA BR BKN011=

The airport is closer to the coast and more open that my location so will always get higher readings than my station.

Discodog

Looks like it's running ahead of schedule. The models were showing the rain reaching Galway around 3 or 4 pm but it looks like a lot earlier than that.

my3cents

Where would I get the most accurate idea of what rainfall we will get?

There's a good chance our house will flood in the next 36 hours and if I can get a better idea of how much we will be getting I'll know how far up I need to lift everything to keep it dry.

40mm over 24 hours and we are OK
40mm over 6 hours we flood, couple of inches
Anything over 40mm in 6 hours and we flood badly

We are reasonable well prepared for floods and can deal with a couple of inches of water but this time I'd really like to know if we need to be preparing for more.

weisses

Discodog wrote: »

Looks like it's running ahead of schedule. The models were showing the rain reaching Galway around 3 or 4 pm but it looks like a lot earlier than that.

Was thinking the same ...Already pretty wild here in West Kerry

Lumi

my3cents wrote: »

Where would I get the most accurate idea of what rainfall we will get?

There's a good chance our house will flood in the next 36 hours and if I can get a better idea of how much we will be getting I'll know how far up I need to lift everything to keep it dry.

40mm over 24 hours and we are OK
40mm over 6 hours we flood, couple of inches
Anything over 40mm in 6 hours and we flood badly

We are reasonable well prepared for floods and can deal with a couple of inches of water but this time I'd really like to know if we need to be preparing for more.

Where are you located?

Gaoth Laidir

Met Éireann have not gone for that second wind max tomorrow morning in their latest TAFs (issued at 11 am). Both Shannon and Cork showing nothing of note.


TAF EINN 291100Z 2912/3012 14023G35KT 9999 SCT020 BKN040 BECMG 2912/2914 16030G45KT BECMG 2914/2916 BKN015 TEMPO 2914/2920 16033G53KT TEMPO 2915/3003 4000 RA BKN010 PROB30 2918/3003 2000 +RA BECMG 2921/2924 19027G43KT BECMG 3000/3002 20020G32KT BECMG 3002/3004 BKN020 BECMG 3007/3010 18027G45KT TEMPO 3009/3012 5000 SHRA BKN012 SCT018CB BECMG 3010/3012 28018G28KT =

TAF EICK 291100Z 2912/3012 18022G37KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 BECMG 2912/2914 18030G47KT TEMPO 2914/3001 18035G55KT BECMG 2914/2916 5000 -RA BKN010 TEMPO 2916/3004 1500 RA BKN003 BECMG 3001/3003 20020G35KT BECMG 3004/3006 9999 NSW BKN020 BECMG 3005/3008 20031G48KT BECMG 3010/3012 29017KT=

maquiladora

That secondary low looks even more severe on the 06Z ARPEGE just out.

Force 12 winds on the Clare coast.



Gusts in excess of 80 knots inland which is as high as the scale goes on this site.



HIRLAM is much slacker, hence Met Eireann are not making much of it, for now at least.

Tactical

my3cents wrote: »

Where would I get the most accurate idea of what rainfall we will get?

There's a good chance our house will flood in the next 36 hours and if I can get a better idea of how much we will be getting I'll know how far up I need to lift everything to keep it dry.

40mm over 24 hours and we are OK
40mm over 6 hours we flood, couple of inches
Anything over 40mm in 6 hours and we flood badly

We are reasonable well prepared for floods and can deal with a couple of inches of water but this time I'd really like to know if we need to be preparing for more.

Act now. Do what you need to. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

Keep an eye on the Met Eireann rainfall radar or the Netweather rainfall radar. They will give you a good idea of what is approaching your location.

Elmer Blooker

Discodog wrote: »

Looks like it's running ahead of schedule. The models were showing the rain reaching Galway around 3 or 4 pm but it looks like a lot earlier than that.

Its only the starter with that warm front ahead of the real stuff later.

Gaoth Laidir

Met Office aviation chart for 1800Z.

Captain Snow

Rain Coming in now on the West Coast

Oneiric 3

Frontal analysis at 06z




WV at 11am



Up to yesterday, Claremorris, the nearest station to me, broke the 300 mm rainfall total for the month, breaking its November '09 total and making it the wettest month on record here. Haven't looked at other station data yet but Christ, what a wet month it has been.

Gaoth Laidir

ASCAT winds from 10:33 this morning (red), with 06Z hirlam data (for 10:00Z) and IR satellite (10:30).

Overall good agreement with model data, however the measured wind direction to the SE of the model centre (nearest to "10:33") shows a more SW component than the model's winds, possibly indicating that the low centre is actually a little more east than forecast.