January 2016 Boards forecast contest

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

IMT finished at 5.8 C.

PRC is confirmed at 139% of normal (range 106 at Ballyhaise to 192 at Cork)

SUN is estimated to be 85% after a rather dull last three days that averaged about half the normal amount.

The sunshine will be checked against monthly summary values and so will the max and min. Knock had a max of only 2.5 on the 30th but I don't think that breaks the existing mark of 2.3 for the bonus.

Scoring will be posted tomorrow then after the Monthly Summary is available.

How was I so sunny compared to other parts of the country?

M.T. Cranium

Tae laidir wrote: »

Con's max temp looks a little low.

You're right, looks like a typo on that, I typed 12.9 but the right value is 13.9. Will note this in the scoring table. Thanks.

M.T. Cranium

sryanbruen wrote: »

How was I so sunny compared to other parts of the country?

Well I just noticed Dublin had more sun on the 30th than other stations, over 4 hours, so perhaps the same trend earlier? I will report on the variations when I get the final numbers tomorrow. I suspect the southwest stations will be lower than the eastern two.

M.T. Cranium

Final report on January, all the previously reported figures are confirmed except that sunshine computes to 90% from the monthly totals vs the daily normals (this is now as close as I can figure them from the MS) so we'll go with that, and the regional variations as promised do support what sryanbruen thought, Casement and Dublin were above their normal values at about 110%, the other four stations used ranged from 70% at Valentia to 97% at Shannon.

So here's the scoring report for January:

January 2016 scoring

FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Lowest max___ TOTALS

Tae laidir ______________25 _ 14*_ 18*_ 12 _ 09 _____ 08 _______ 86
MrSkinner _____________ 22 _ 20*_ 16*_ 11 _ 05 _____ 09 _______ 83
mickger844posts _ (-3) __ 21 _ 12*_ 16*_ 12 _ 10 _____ 10 __ 81-3=78
omicron _______________22 _ 08*_ 11*_ 15 _ 10 _____ 10 _______ 76
waterways _____________22 _ 14*_ 13*_ 14 _ 08 _____ 04 _______ 75

Con Sensus ____________22 _ 10*_ 11*_ 15 _ 09 _____ 06 _______ 73

john mac ______________23 _ 12*_ 11*_ 09 _ 09 _____ 08 _______ 72
Sunflower3 ____________ 23 _ 07*_ 18*_ 05 _ 10 _____ 09 _______ 72
Lumi _________________ 23 _ 09*_ 14*_ 11 _ 09 _____ 05 _______ 71
Rameire _______________24 _ 12*_ 10*_ 09 _ 10 _____ 04 _______ 69
JD__ (-2) _____________ 23 _ 10*_ 12*_ 13 _ 09 _____ 04 __ 71-2=69
lostinashford (-10) ______ 21 _ 16*_ 15*_ 10 _ 09 _____ 08 __79-10=69
Rikand ________________17 _ 16*_ 07*_ 15 _ 06 _____ 06 _______ 67
Dasa29 _______________ 22 _ 04*_ 20*_ 09 _ 10 _____ 01 _______ 66
Schadenfreudia _________25 _ 11*_ 12*_ 02 _ 08 _____ 07 _______ 65
Bsal __________________20 _ 04*_ 19*_ 07 _ 09 _____ 06 _______ 65
Jpmarn _______________ 24 _ 10*_ 02*_ 11 _ 10 _____ 07 _______ 64
Pauldry________________20 _ 06*_ 09*_ 02 _ 10 _____ 06 _______ 53
DOCARCH _____________17 _ 10*_ 05*_ 07 _ 08 _____ 06 _______ 53
Dacogawa _____________17 _ 10*_ 06*_ 05 _ 10 _____ 04 _______ 52

Norma L ______________ 19 _ 10*_ 07*_ 02 _ 08 _____ 06 _______ 52

200motels _____________20 _ 07*_ 02*_ 07 _ 08 _____ 02 _______ 46
M.T. Cranium __________ 19 _ 08*_ 02*_ 08 _ 08 _____ 01 _______ 46
Joe Public _____________ 06 _ 04*_ 03*_ 08 _ 04 _____ 03 _______ 28
Sryanbruen ____________06 _ 06*_ 01*_ 04 _ 06 _____ 04 _______ 27
________________________________________________________

* minimum progression rule applied to scoring (for MAX only slight adjustments were needed, MIN required a bit more help).

Congrats to Tae laidir, MrSkinner and mickger844posts for leading the contest in our first month of 2016.