Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

Kermit.de.frog

Keep an eye out for Wednesday or Thursday. Possibility of snowfall just about anywhere.

Reckless Abandonment

All looking very sloppy now. As maq said nothing unusual for January going by the current outputs. Still I'd be very happy to see some white gold during the week.

snowstorm445

UKMO still looking decent, nice northerly airflow. GFS brings an end to the cold spell relatively quickly though (although it could be another mild outlier, let's see).

snowstorm445

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2016011012/UW120-21.GIF?10-17

Villain

maquiladora wrote: »

The significant cold spell that we were expecting has now downgraded to about 24 hours of -6 uppers on the 12Z GFS before milder air pushes in from the west.

Those type of conditions are just normal January cold blips and far removed from the type of charts that caused this thread to be created.

Charts showing something interesting beyond that is just FI once again I'm afraid.

The UKMO is sticking to cold but the GFS has given up. Huge differences

wakka12

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Keep an eye out for Wednesday or Thursday. Possibility of snowfall just about anywhere.

The one effing week Im abroad

Tea drinker

The madness has already started and there wasn't even snow or ice.
A broke down Polo blocking one lane on the way up ticknock, a transit has got stuck in the one way system blocking all access onto ticknock hill and in the mayhen some mondeo's clutch has burnt out. The smell of it. Smells like... victory! Oh wait, failure.

PS what is GFS?

snowstorm445

GFS has raging southwesterlies by the start of next week. :rolleyes:

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

sunsetbeachfan wrote: »

How do I post photos? .

You need at least 50 posts first.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

Tea drinker wrote: »

.....

PS what is GFS?

Global Forecast System

Trogdor

maquiladora wrote: »

The significant cold spell that we were expecting has now downgraded to about 24 hours of -6 uppers on the 12Z GFS before milder air pushes in from the west.

Those type of conditions are just normal January cold blips and far removed from the type of charts that caused this thread to be created.

Charts showing something interesting beyond that is just FI once again I'm afraid.

The charts that started this thread in the first post which were looking at this Tuesday's weather look as though they'll verify almost exactly as was expected with -5C uppers and wintry showers beginning to affect the West and North. Through the rest of the week this risk extends across the country a bit more with the risk of a shallow low pressure crossing near us, however, a country-wide low level event does look quite unlikely and the inland and higher elevation locations will be much more favoured. After that the models are chopping and changing so much, who knows at this stage. That is not to say I am optimistic of further more pronounced cold developing but I think it is too early to call what will happen with ECM/UKMO extending the cold into the weekend and GFS shutting it down earlier.

Granted the one FI chart posted in the first post will almost definitely not come off as posted but I think any regular here knows that charts at T+240 are pure speculation and just for fun really. I have followed this thread since the beginning and I don't feel like it has been misleading to me. Maybe just from past experiences I expected changes to happen and pretty much ignored any longer range charts, but I feel like this is a lesson that everyone learns/has to learn by getting excited by these long range charts and then realising they are very rarely correct.

Sorry I ended up writing a bit more than I thought I would. I'm not having a go at you at all by the way these are just my personal thoughts on it.

HighLine

Some muppet thought it would be a good idea to drive a van up to the Military Road in today's snow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Bqc1CJTsAo

WheatenBriar

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Keep an eye out for Wednesday or Thursday. Possibility of snowfall just about anywhere.

Aye as I said this morning, Wednesday night is another potential ninja snow possibility as a feature crossing the country
Whatever about what may or may not happen after next weekend, this coming week we are north of the jetstream, we have polar air in the Atlantic and the feature will be crossing the country in the midst of a hard frost AT Night
Now we saw what happened last night in less favourable conditions, what do you think might happen Wednesday night I ask you?

Also bear in mind that feature was not being talked about in the start of this thread which only goes to further underline how uncertain things are at the moment, so why would we be putting much sted in the options available for the following week?

Personally my take on whats going on has 2 conflicting gut feelings
The first is,we are in a colder phase now,if we stay in it even a third as long as the flooding rut we've just came out of ,we will see more rain events with hill snow at times but the likelihood of a proper snow event increases simply because we're never too far from a feed of cold model speaking if ye get me?

The second is high pressure, you'll either love it or hate it but if you're into snow you won't like it if it hangs around near us whilst allowing events in the west Atlantic to get it together some where and that jet to buckle up too far north near us again
That gfs cannot be ignored you see,but at some point the divergence between it and the rest will narrow sharply like the flick of a switch
Hope it's the right switch
None of us know

Hooter23

Rain and sleet mix in Galway

Dazzo

HighLine wrote: »

Some muppet thought it would be a good idea to drive a van up to the Military Road in today's snow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Bqc1CJTsAo

That is just beautiful! Thought i was in the Arctic there for a bit. thank you.

cowana

HighLine wrote: »

Some muppet thought it would be a good idea to drive a van up to the Military Road in today's snow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Bqc1CJTsAo

I saw a lot of idiots in rear wheel drives / no winter tyres , four wheel drives stuck as they were not running on winter tyres etc.

Captain Snow

Around Military Road back of kippure today

















image hoster

snowstorm445

ECM starts off well but has the high collapsing in over us after a few days. Still, would mean we could see some dry, chilly days and cold, frosty nights.

km79

snowstorm445 wrote: »

ECM starts off well but has the high collapsing in over us after a few days. Still, would mean we could see some dry, chilly days and cold, frosty nights.

thatll do pig
that will do

WheatenBriar

Quite a hard frost now in Arklow
Currently 0.7c
Back roads must be slippy

JanuarySnowstor

What happened since this thread was opened has made me question weather as an interest / hobby.
The charts collapsed and what we now get is all a bit 'meh'

It happens every year where we get our hopes up only for it to be destroyed

eigrod

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Quite a hard frost now in Arklow
Currently 0.7c
Back roads must be slippy

Priory Road in Greystones is in a treacherous condition with Black Ice according to several reports.

space2ground1

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

What happened since this thread was opened has made me question weather as an interest / hobby.
The charts collapsed and what we now get is all a bit 'meh'

It happens every year where we get our hopes up only for it to be destroyed

I feel a bit the same. It's annoying to spend time learning about how these charts work when over time you realise how fictional they are. In the lifetime of the weather forum, has there ever been a snow event that saw most people across the country see snow that showed up in FI?

I wonder did the 2010 snow show up far in advance?

WheatenBriar

space2ground1 wrote: »

I wonder did the 2010 snow show up far in advance?

All the threads for nov dec 2010 are still in the forum just go back a few hundred of the forums front-pages until you get to the threads from the period
But yes loads of uncertainty then
Remember we are analysing charts and 7 times out of 10 we are going to get stuff in them consistent with our normal climate

patneve2

WheatenBriar wrote: »

All the threads for nov dec 2010 are still in the forum just go back a few hundred of the forums front-pages until you get to the threads from the period
But yes loads of uncertainty then
Remember we are analysing charts and 7 times out of 10 we are going to get stuff in them consistent with our normal climate

If I recall correctly the run up to the 2010 spell was the only time that a cold spell was modeled consistently from far in FI up until +0 hrs. I think GFS spotted it at +300 hours and showed in on (nearly) every run up until the start of the event. What we are going through now is very messy in comparison.

Reckless Abandonment

patneve2 wrote: »

If I recall correctly the run up to the 2010 spell was the only time that a cold spell was modeled consistently from far in FI up until +0 hrs. I think GFS spotted it at +300 hours and showed in on (nearly) every run up until the start of the event. What we are going through now is very messy in comparison.

If I remember 2010 was well modeled even MT was bigging it up a few weeks before.

WheatenBriar

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

If I remember 2010 was well modeled even MT was bigging it up a few weeks before.

Mt,called it on his analogues
First part in nov 2010 I think was appearing in various guises for a while but not for 3 weeks beforehand!
2nd phase in dec would have flipped and flopped en route in models

The Nov bit I thought would never happen actually

snowstorm445

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

What happened since this thread was opened has made me question weather as an interest / hobby.
The charts collapsed and what we now get is all a bit 'meh'

It happens every year where we get our hopes up only for it to be destroyed

It really does drain your energy and enthusiasm for the whole thing. They're all imperfect computer models, obviously, and are subject to plenty of errors, especially far out. But it seems almost cruel that synoptics like these continually show up, followed by cross model drama and then quiet disappearance/fading into normal weather (maybe a day or two of wintry showers if we're lucky).

It's almost like a mirage; luring snow lovers after months of mild dross, appearing tantalising and wonderful, but never getting any closer, and then just slowly fading away into nothingness. :mad:

It's been like this for many winters now, but at least after many experiences you learn to be cautious, prudent and patient. Above all don't get too emotionally caught up with what's happening. Just watch it unfold. It's what's great and interesting about Irish weather. :P

Mafra

Such a great sight today to see snow capped mountains flying in to Dublin. Hope that's not the extent of it though.

Clonmel1000

snowstorm445 wrote: »

It really does drain your energy and enthusiasm for the whole thing. They're all imperfect computer models, obviously, and are subject to plenty of errors, especially far out. But it seems almost cruel that synoptics like these continually show up, followed by cross model drama and then quiet disappearance/fading into normal weather (maybe a day or two of wintry showers if we're lucky).

It's almost like a mirage; luring snow lovers after months of mild dross, appearing tantalising and wonderful, but never getting any closer, and then just slowly fading away into nothingness. :mad:

It's been like this for many winters now, but at least after many experiences you learn to be cautious, prudent and patient. Above all don't get too emotionally caught up with what's happening. Just watch it unfold. It's what's great and interesting about Irish weather. :P

A very sensible and thought out post. A sentiment I fully endorse but have found difficulty in expressing.