Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

irishgeo

Will it be gone by the weekend? I really don't want any flight delays Sunday.

space2ground1

I wonder are there any major improvements in the design of the models on the horizon. It would be great to see even an improvement in the reliability to 7 days out.

MidMan25

irishgeo wrote: »

Will it be gone by the weekend? I really don't want any flight delays Sunday.

:pac:

green and yellow

a whopping 6.5 degrees in donegal atm.

wakka12

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

What happened since this thread was opened has made me question weather as an interest / hobby.
The charts collapsed and what we now get is all a bit 'meh'

It happens every year where we get our hopes up only for it to be destroyed

Yeah I gave up on it, but didnt have as much patience as you. Last time I visited this forum was about 2 years ago just couldn't take the disappointment

JCX BXC

irishgeo wrote: »

Will it be gone by the weekend? I really don't want any flight delays Sunday.

Flight delays are veryyyyy unlikely, I'd rather the cold weather tbh, probably less disruptive than the usual windy weather!!!

irishgeo

Carnacalla wrote: »

Flight delays are veryyyyy unlikely, I'd rather the cold weather tbh, probably less disruptive than the usual windy weather!!!

Your not flying out of knock airport built on top of hill.

JCX BXC

irishgeo wrote: »

Your not flying out of knock airport built on top of hill.

Experiences almost no snow related delays though, especially not in comparison to that Fog and wind

konman

Just wondering if the thread title should be amended, it would seem to be misleading now.

irishgeo

Carnacalla wrote: »

Experiences almost no snow related delays though, especially not in comparison to that Fog and wind

Fingers crossed.

Trogdor

space2ground1 wrote: »

I wonder are there any major improvements in the design of the models on the horizon. It would be great to see even an improvement in the reliability to 7 days out.

Off topic but models are always being tweaked and improved usually by either adding more complex variables to their algorithms or by using newer more powerful super computers.
You can see how the accuracy has varied over the last 20 years here. AC refers to the anomaly correlation coefficient which is a measure of how accurately the forecasts match the end result. The higher the measure the more the forecast was to reality. You can see that at AC=0.8 (which is a reasonably good correlation but obviously still not fully accurate forecast), most models do well out to about 6 days. Anyway point is that the accuracy is always slowly improving.

syklops

wakka12 wrote: »

Yeah I gave up on it, but didnt have as much patience as you. Last time I visited this forum was about 2 years ago just couldn't take the disappointment

A bit like me and astronomy. Any time I got fired up for some event, it was cloudy that night.

Schadenfreudia

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

What happened since this thread was opened has made me question weather as an interest / hobby.
The charts collapsed and what we now get is all a bit 'meh'

Then I guess you are interested in snow rather than weather?

A pretty unrequited hobby for anyone living in Ireland!

The_Valeyard

So no snow blizzard to get me a couple days off work???

Schadenfreudia

The_Valeyard wrote: »

So no snow blizzard to get me a couple days off work???

Ah! But had school opening been between 11pm and 2am last night they'd almost certainly have been closed around here!

WheatenBriar

Not sure this pic will post,its croghan mountain on the wicklow wexford border as seen from Arklow this afternoon, its a zoom so the quality is poor

highdef

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Not sure this pic will post,its croghan mountain on the wicklow wexford border as seen from Arklow this afternoon, its a zoom so the quality is poor

Great photo, even if the quality is bad. Any chance of a higher quality one (not a screengrab from phone)? The snowline is amazingly well pronounced. The divide between a decent covering of snow and no snow at all looks to be only 10's of metres difference

Speak Now

highdef wrote: »

Great photo, even if the quality is bad. Any chance of a higher quality one (not a screengrab from phone)? The snowline is amazingly well pronounced. The divide between a decent covering of snow and no snow at all looks to be only 10's of metres difference

Ha ha great username choice

WheatenBriar

highdef wrote: »

Great photo, even if the quality is bad. Any chance of a higher quality one (not a screengrab from phone)? The snowline is amazingly well pronounced. The divide between a decent covering of snow and no snow at all looks to be only 10's of metres difference

Actually in the morning that green area was white too,just not as white
The top fields are 1000ft above sea level,the mountain runs to 2000ft
Its likely it was snowing first and earlier on those top fields,there is a public road running beside them about 5 or 6 miles as the crow flies inland from Arklow
I wouldn't be surprised if the entire area gets a big covering Wednesday night
The photo was sent to me in that blurred quality unfortunately

pauldry

The mountains in mayo had snow today

Still a few opportunities next week but seems like hail.

Donegal will prob see snow in the usual spots.

It seems in sligo once temperature gets to 0c it heats up

Cant understand either people who question a 33 page thread about informative weather information.

When you look back at this winter and see every week in double figures you will see 7 to 10 days of significantly colder weather "now" , so thread title is correct

Schadenfreudia

pauldry wrote: »

When you look back at this winter and see every week in double figures you will see 7 to 10 days of significantly colder weather "now" , so thread title is correct

I guess the thread might better be titled "Significantly closer to Average-January-Temperatures Expected"

Graces7

Well I for one am glad of the advice re significant cold. There was no mention of snow..Maybe you well off young ones can cope with the cold we have now but we older ones need to know in advance especially on pensions. Last night got my Serious Weather bedding out. a huge feather eiderdown from family in Canada ...Just told someone off for carping re folk with out of date car disabled badges as the cost of renewal equals three bags of coal! But yes. accept what comes.Setting too much "hope" on snow is madness. And look at the chaos on some roads. I do not believe in karma but maybe we just cannot cope with snow so it does not come. Looking at met ie the days ahead are COLD. We live the weather in these parts. Not a spectator sport..in touch with family in Novia Scotia and Newfoundland and they know snow and respect it

Clonmel1000

Graces7 wrote: »

Well I for one am glad of the advice re significant cold. There was no mention of snow..Maybe you well off young ones can cope with the cold we have now but we older ones need to know in advance especially on pensions. Last night got my Serious Weather bedding out. a huge feather eiderdown from family in Canada ...Just told someone off for carping re folk with out of date car disabled badges as the cost of renewal equals three bags of coal! But yes. accept what comes.Setting too much "hope" on snow is madness. And look at the chaos on some roads. I do not believe in karma but maybe we just cannot cope with snow so it does not come. Looking at met ie the days ahead are COLD. We live the weather in these parts. Not a spectator sport..in touch with family in Novia Scotia and Newfoundland and they know snow and respect it

Most pensioners I know have far more disposable income than the "well off young ones" you refer to. I take your point on our road chaos but I was encouraged to see 3 gritters on the motorway this morning.

DOCARCH

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

I guess the thread might better be titled "Significantly closer to Average-January-Temperatures Expected"

I have edited the thread title to 'Cold Spell', and, have left open ended as to when this spell might end.

In reality the weather is expected to be more seasonal rather than significant! If this spell does develop into something more significant, then, the title can be re-edited.

WheatenBriar

Pretty darn cold in Arklow
Overnight low of -3.1
Currently -1.7
Everything frozen solid and white with frost

fred funk }{

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Pretty darn cold in Arklow
Overnight low of -3.1
Currently -1.7
Everything frozen solid and white with frost

Lovely to see too.

screamer

Dunno how accurate the car is but it read -5 at 6am. We're high up on kilkenny laois border and we have a micro climate here. When it's cold it's really cold here compared to surrounding areas.

Lovely to see thick white frost for the first time in a long while.

Macy0161

My weather station is out of action, but whilst I've had much colder temps on the car this winter, definitely the hardest frost.

Nothing more than wintry mix for me on Saturday night at 237ish asl near Roundwood, but we weren't that much below the snow line - I'd guess around 300m (artic tree would probably have a better estimate).

sunsetbeachfan

I took some nice snow photos yesterday. Was up in three rock mountain from 12.20 until 2pm ish
It is beautiful though I was not the only one with that great idea place was mobbed. Some virgin snow up there that I walked/jumped around it, snow balls were thrown and a snow man was made though he was small. I hope it stays and I'll continue going up the mountains in the next few days.







So beautiful

Villain

My station hit a low of -3.1°C at 08:41 this morning, roads were truly awful around Carlow as only Priority 1 roads were treated.

Snapshot from my dash-cam this morning just outside Carlow on Hacketstown road



I notice my WXSIM forecast based on GFS has a low of -6c for Tuesday night and -7c for Thursday night, will be interesting to see.