Price of petrol

kneemos

nokia69 wrote: »

The i8 is a plug in hybrid and is not the same as a pure EV

Pretty much is if it's not recharged by the car itself.

nokia69

kneemos wrote: »

Pretty much is if it's not recharged by the car itself.

I think it is recharged by the car itself, AFAIK it uses regen to charge the batteries, and under certain conditions the engine will charge the battery

BTW BMW are going electric in a big way, by 2022 all BMWs 3 series and above will be plug in hybrids like the i8

kneemos

nokia69 wrote: »

I think it is recharged by the car itself, AFAIK it uses regen to charge the batteries, and under certain conditions the engine will charge the battery

BTW BMW are going electric in a big way, by 2022 all BMWs 3 series and above will be plug in hybrids like the i8

The Prius doesn't use Lithium batteries,probably where the difference lies.

nokia69

kneemos wrote: »

The Prius doesn't use Lithium batteries,probably where the difference lies.

I think the new Prius does, and I expect its batteries to last just as well as the Nickel-Metal-Hydride used in the first Prius

KomradeBishop

Drop in the price of petrol = Juicy opportunity for all businesses to pocket the money from the reduced cost, instead of passing it on to the customer.

Will companies (across the entire economy, since oil affects everything) compete with each other and bid the price of everything down over time?
Eventually. Why ruin a good thing though, when they all know if they avoid aggressively competing with each other, that they can milk it...

Deise Vu

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Quote:
Originally Posted by andersat2 View Post
ok, so some statistics here:

June 2014 - oil price: 110 USD/bbl
June 2014 - oil price: 80.3 €/bbl
June 2014 - average petrol price in Dublin: 1.50 Eur/L

January 2016 - oil price: 35 USD/bbl (almost 3 times lower, than in 2014)
January 2016 - oil price: 32 €/bbl
January 2016 - average petrol price in Dublin: 1.29 Eur/L (20ct lower than in 2014).

no changes in TAX since 2010.

so who's bad?
Just for comparison

Assuming all the above figures are correct there is just one crucial figure that is missing from everyone's calculations so far in that there are 159 litres in a barrel of crude.

Therefore:

Price of crude per litre June 2014 is 50.5 cent
Price now is 20 cent per litre

The reduction at the pump should be 30 cent plus VAT = 37 Cent. but it has only fallen by about 20 cent. The difference is partly explained by processing costs also being denominated in $ and forward buying in a falling market but mostly it is down to the oil companies and distributors being slower to pass on the decreases than they are the increases (Quelle surprise!).

Ultimately it will have to filter through because the oil companies will be trying to shift product as fast as they can or else they will be stuck with tank fulls of stuff they have paid dearly for when the market is being flooded with cheap stuff.

lawlolawl

Remember when "peak oil" was a thing for a few minutes that was going to end humanity as we knew it?

corkgsxr

Since last time it was properly cheap they've put on about 20 cent so when I'm paying 110 at the mo it could actually be 90 ish cent

ScumLord

All the new applegreens opening around the country seem to be driving the price down. A new one opened in my town and went to war with the other petrol station in town. Brought the price down from 1.12 to 1.07.

smash wrote: »

I'm not convinced. They're becoming increasingly more expensive to run.

In what way? Maintenance wise they're much cheaper to run because there's less to go wrong. Current battery tech is a problem, Tesla reckon their battery will last ten years, which is very good for what's basically laptop batteries. And if a new battery every 8-10 years is your only major maintenance expense it's not too bad.

There is new battery tech in bound, I don't know what they're like for lifespan, but who keeps a car for 10 years these days?

nokia69

ScumLord wrote: »

Tesla reckon their battery will last ten years, which is very good for what's basically laptop batteries. And if a new battery every 8-10 years is your only major maintenance expense it's not too bad.

Tesla give an 8 year infinite milage warranty on the drive train and the battery, people seem to think that this means they battery will fail after 8 years and one day

Toyota give 3 year/100,000 km warranty but few people assume that their Toyota will stop working after 3 years and one day

its a strange bias people have

kneemos

ScumLord wrote: »

All the new applegreens opening around the country seem to be driving the price down. A new one opened in my town and went to war with the other petrol station in town. Brought the price down from 1.12 to 1.07.

In what way? Maintenance wise they're much cheaper to run because there's less to go wrong. Current battery tech is a problem, Tesla reckon their battery will last ten years, which is very good for what's basically laptop batteries. And if a new battery every 8-10 years is your only major maintenance expense it's not too bad.

There is new battery tech in bound, I don't know what they're like for lifespan, but who keeps a car for 10 years these days?

Might not keep it for ten years but who's going to buy it ?

Was wondering about servicing on EV,presumably it's a main dealer only job and very expensive?

FatherTed

FYI it's come down a lot here in the US in the last 2 years e.g. it's about $2.03 a gallon near me in CT and we have higher gasoline taxes compared to other states. It was close to $5 when Obama took office.

1 US gallon is about 3.8 litres with the exchange rate of about .92 so that's about €0.49 a litre. Other states like Texas it's about $1.74/gal which is €0.41 a litre.

ScumLord

kneemos wrote: »

Might not keep it for ten years but who's going to buy it ?

I'm sure someone will find a way, whether it's car dealerships buying in batteries in bulk and reselling the car, refurbished and practically back to new (power unit wise). Batteries will likely come down in price when more electric cars are out there. If there was some sort of standardisation the price would plummet.

Was wondering about servicing on EV,presumably it's a main dealer only job and very expensive?

I don't see why it would be expensive. An electric cars power unit is shockingly simple. It's basically an electric motor (which are in common use in most industries), connected to a gearbox, connected to the wheels. Big electric motors can be rewound as a form of maintenance. But as the system is so simple I'd guess it would be cheaper to just replace the part. You could probably replace the motor and gearbox in an electric car in the time it would take you to replace the air filter on some cars that bury the air filter in behind the engine.

Combustion engines have hundreds of moving parts. An electric engine has one moving part and it's frictionless.

smash

ScumLord wrote: »

In what way? Maintenance wise they're much cheaper to run because there's less to go wrong. Current battery tech is a problem, Tesla reckon their battery will last ten years, which is very good for what's basically laptop batteries. And if a new battery every 8-10 years is your only major maintenance expense it's not too bad.

increasing ownership costs: http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/motors/esb-electric-car-price-plans-jolt-owners-anger-1.2419590

And new batteries cost thousands.

ScumLord wrote: »

There is new battery tech in bound, I don't know what they're like for lifespan, but who keeps a car for 10 years these days?

Resale value will be zero considering batteries will cost more than the car is worth. Essentially most EV cars will be economic write offs after 8-10 years.

kneemos

smash wrote: »

increasing ownership costs: http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/motors/esb-electric-car-price-plans-jolt-owners-anger-1.2419590

And new batteries cost thousands.


Resale value will be zero considering batteries will cost more than the car is worth. Essentially most EV cars will be economic write offs after 8-10 years.

Two grand added to the overall costs in a ten year lifespan just for the option of using charge points.Not much cheaper than diesel to fuel,high initial cost,no resale value,low range.
Hard to see the attraction.

nokia69

kneemos wrote: »

Two grand added to the overall costs in a ten year lifespan just for the option of using charge points.Not much cheaper than diesel to fuel,high initial cost,no resale value,low range.
Hard to see the attraction.

Nope that charging plan will never happen, still far cheaper than diesel, your lies will fail

you can read all about it below

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057515691

The BEV will not be beat, the ICE is dead

kneemos

nokia69 wrote: »

Nope that charging plan will never happen, still far cheaper than diesel, your lies will fail

you can read all about it below

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057515691

The BEV will not be beat, the ICE is dead

Not reading 46 pages of that,maybe reveal the gist of it.
The " lies " as you call them were taken from Smash's link above.

nokia69

kneemos wrote: »

Not reading 46 pages of that,maybe reveal the gist of it.
The " lies " as you call them were taken from Smash's link above.

TLDR the charges in the link above won't happen

Over the last few years, and in the next few years, you will hear plenty of anti EV propaganda, but keep in mind that most of it will be lies, in each case if you dig a little deeper you can find the truth

Evs can't be stopped now, the future is electric, just like Tesla said it would be :cool:

Corpus Twisty

nokia69 wrote: »

TLDR the charges in the link above won't happen

Over the last few years, and in the next few years, you will hear plenty of anti EV propaganda, but keep in mind that most of it will be lies, in each case if you dig a little deeper you can find the truth

Evs can't be stopped now, the future is electric, just like Tesla said it would be :cool:

Let's wait and see. A while back the future was going to be hoverboards.

smash

nokia69 wrote: »

Over the last few years, and in the next few years, you will hear plenty of anti EV propaganda, but keep in mind that most of it will be lies, in each case if you dig a little deeper you can find the truth

You think the Irish Times is pushing anti EV propaganda and it's all lies that "the ESB announced the free charging was coming to an end from January, when there will be charging for charging." even though it was in a press release from them?

Renegade Mechanic

nokia69 wrote: »

TLDR the charges in the link above won't happen

Over the last few years, and in the next few years, you will hear plenty of anti EV propaganda, but keep in mind that most of it will be lies, in each case if you dig a little deeper you can find the truth

Evs can't be stopped now, the future is electric, just like Tesla said it would be :cool:

Mabye. But I doubt it'll be with lithium.. That stuff is rare, comes either from war torn holes or China, and the carbon footprint in getting enough of it together for a car is ironically massive.. And expensive. But when you're being paid via "green initiatives" to get it, it doesn't matter. Not to mention the electricity is largely generated by coal so.....
I reckon oil will be important to the bitter last drop.

Range extended hybrids and full fuel charged electric would be my bet. We already have the infrastructure for fuel. Why make another for electric? Turn your engine and and it turns a generator. Like an alternator, only instead of running your lights, it runs the whole car. Charges the battery as you go, meaning you never run out.

The Tesla is good. But from a money spent on charging perspective, it does an mpg equivalent of about 130mpg. Which is great, but it's 130mpg on coal....
Volkswagen's Twin Up (emissions scandal aside, or considered, perhaps..) is a smaller car, for sure. It uses a tiny two cylinder diesel engine to run a generator. But it does about 220mpg on fuel. And it's emissions controls are going to be better than a coal station..

Twin Ups drivetrain setup in the Up, polo and golf etc will be a game changer, if VW can get it out..

kneemos

A Leaf and a 1.4 diesel Auris cost about the same.The Toyota may be worth a few grand after ten years the Leaf apparently nothing.
You may well save that much in fuel and servicing costs,but I don't see any great savings either economically or environmentally in EV's

nokia69

smash wrote: »

You think the Irish Times is pushing anti EV propaganda and it's all lies that "the ESB announced the free charging was coming to an end from January, when there will be charging for charging." even though it was in a press release from them?

The free charging was never going to last forever, everyone with an EV knew that well, but the new way of paying in the article is not going to happen because it was clearly not fair to people

I don't think the Irish Times is pushing an anti EV angle but plenty of other people are, its easy to spot it

smash

nokia69 wrote: »

The free charging was never going to last forever, everyone with an EV knew that well, but the new way of paying in the article is not going to happen because it was clearly not fair to people

Cry me a river! :rolleyes:

kneemos

How many more power stations would we need if everyone had an EV?
Or how much more oil would we need to import to generate enough power?
Are they really any more environmentally friendly given most of our power comes from oil,coal and turf?

smash

kneemos wrote: »

Are they really any more environmentally friendly given most of our power comes from oil,coal and turf?

Real answer: No. They're more damaging.
Government Answer: Yes, they're the future.... until something like hydrogen becomes cost effective.

Greyian

smash wrote: »

increasing ownership costs: http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/motors/esb-electric-car-price-plans-jolt-owners-anger-1.2419590

And new batteries cost thousands.


Resale value will be zero considering batteries will cost more than the car is worth. Essentially most EV cars will be economic write offs after 8-10 years.

That only applies if you're using the ESB's public charging spots, which (as has already been outlined) will be largely unnecessary as EV ranges increase. Also, if you're happy to use normal (as opposed to fast) charging, €16.99/month for unlimited "fuel" is an absolute bargain.


As for the new batteries, why are you assuming they'll just die 1 day after the warranty ends? I believe Nissan's warranty for their battery relates to 70% capacity (i.e. if it's within warranty, it will be replaced when capacity drops below 70% of original capacity). So the battery doesn't just die all of a sudden, it will just have reduced capacity over time. If the range is increased to 400-500km, there will be plenty of people willing to pick up used EVs with ranges that have fallen to 280-350km over time.

There are plenty of used ICE cars that are only worth 3000-4000 (or less) after 8-10 years. Even if we assume that EVs will quite literally be worth 0 euro (because no-one could ever want to buy a used EV, right? And no dealership ever offers scrappage schemes either?), the savings from electricity vs fuel (plus motor tax, servicing, maintenance etc) will easily see the EV being the better value.

EV's issue isn't really cost, it is (even with the premium of EV vs comparable ICE spec currently) range. When the range issue gets sorted, EVs will be far, far more popular.

Special Circumstances

nokia69 wrote: »

I don't think the Irish Times is pushing an anti EV angle but plenty of other people are, its easy to spot it

Funny to see some of the exaggerations and scaremongering all the same. "I hear they cause frizzy hair and potato blight! And they are worth negative money after 3 weeks!"

smash

Greyian wrote: »

That only applies if you're using the ESB's public charging spots, which (as has already been outlined) will be largely unnecessary as EV ranges increase. Also, if you're happy to use normal (as opposed to fast) charging, €16.99/month for unlimited "fuel" is an absolute bargain.

If you don't use the esb charge points, then you'll have to pay for on street parking. Which means public transport is cheaper than taking the car.

Greyian wrote: »

As for the new batteries, why are you assuming they'll just die 1 day after the warranty ends? I believe Nissan's warranty for their battery relates to 70% capacity (i.e. if it's within warranty, it will be replaced when capacity drops below 70% of original capacity). So the battery doesn't just die all of a sudden, it will just have reduced capacity over time. If the range is increased to 400-500km, there will be plenty of people willing to pick up used EVs with ranges that have fallen to 280-350km over time.

I don't assume they'll die a day after warranty, but the warranties are designed to cater for battery life before they start depleting.

Battery technology hasn't progressed much over the last few decades when you consider it. It's not going to come on leaps and bounds any time soon either.

kneemos

Greyian wrote: »

That only applies if you're using the ESB's public charging spots, which (as has already been outlined) will be largely unnecessary as EV ranges increase. Also, if you're happy to use normal (as opposed to fast) charging, €16.99/month for unlimited "fuel" is an absolute bargain.


As for the new batteries, why are you assuming they'll just die 1 day after the warranty ends? I believe Nissan's warranty for their battery relates to 70% capacity (i.e. if it's within warranty, it will be replaced when capacity drops below 70% of original capacity). So the battery doesn't just die all of a sudden, it will just have reduced capacity over time. If the range is increased to 400-500km, there will be plenty of people willing to pick up used EVs with ranges that have fallen to 280-350km over time.

There are plenty of used ICE cars that are only worth 3000-4000 (or less) after 8-10 years. Even if we assume that EVs will quite literally be worth 0 euro (because no-one could ever want to buy a used EV, right? And no dealership ever offers scrappage schemes either?), the savings from electricity vs fuel (plus motor tax, servicing, maintenance etc) will easily see the EV being the better value.

EV's issue isn't really cost, it is (even with the premium of EV vs comparable ICE spec currently) range. When the range issue gets sorted, EVs will be far, far more popular.

Would have thought cost was one of the prime factors.

Lux23

Retail petrol stations make 3 cent on a litre of petrol, the government takes 90c on duty alone. Duty isn't a percentage, its a set amount so the fall oil prices will have very little effect on the price of fuel for consumers. The government like to blame retailers though.

kneemos

Lux23 wrote: »

Retail petrol stations make 3 cent on a litre of petrol, the government takes 90c on duty alone. Duty isn't a percentage, its a set amount so the fall oil prices will have very little effect on the price of fuel for consumers. The government like to blame retailers though.

How is duty not a percentage?

ScumLord

smash wrote: »

Battery technology hasn't progressed much over the last few decades when you consider it. It's not going to come on leaps and bounds any time soon either.

It is, there are a number of electric race series are trialing new battery tech that's half the weight and twice the capacity. Mercedes have a new battery in development that's getting close to market.

Once the battery problem is sorted electric trumps combustion is every conceivable way. They're better performing cars. I think whatever else happens the electric motor will end up driving the wheels of cars, even if the combustion engine is still there as an energy convertor.

nokia69

smash wrote: »

I don't assume they'll die a day after warranty, but the warranties are designed to cater for battery life before they start depleting.

Then why mention the cost of a new battery, as if every EV will need a new pack at some stage, in fact its the very opposite, the packs will out last the cars and will still be in use years after the car has been scrapped

smash wrote: »

Battery technology hasn't progressed much over the last few decades when you consider it. It's not going to come on leaps and bounds any time soon either.

this is just totally wrong, you don't really have a clue what you're talking about

ScumLord

nokia69 wrote: »

Then why mention the cost of a new battery, as if every EV will need a new pack at some stage, in fact its the very opposite, the packs will out last the cars and will still be in use years after the car has been scrapped

All batteries have a shelf life. Most batteries will be useless after five years (including rechargeable batteries), the fact car manufacturers can get 10 years of use from their batteries is already a big breakthrough.

It's a chemical limit I think, Even on rechargeable batteries you can only make it go through the chemical reaction a number of times before it gets polluted and unable to hold a charge.

smash

nokia69 wrote: »

Then why mention the cost of a new battery, as if every EV will need a new pack at some stage, in fact its the very opposite, the packs will out last the cars and will still be in use years after the car has been scrapped

That's the point. They'll need a new pack, a few years after warranty, at which point the cost will outweigh the car's value.

nokia69 wrote: »

this is just totally wrong, you don't really have a clue what you're talking about

Look at progress charts of battery technology over the decades and you'll see that the progress has been ridiculously slow and still possibly decades off becoming a viable energy source for EV cars to be sustainable over a decent period of time.

http://ecomento.com/2015/07/29/electric-car-battery-progress-slower-then-expected/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/04/02/expensive-batteries-are-holding-back-electric-cars-what-would-it-take-for-that-to-change/

EndaHonesty

Lux23 wrote: »

Retail petrol stations make 3 cent on a litre of petrol, the government takes 90c on duty alone. Duty isn't a percentage, its a set amount so the fall oil prices will have very little effect on the price of fuel for consumers. The government like to blame retailers though.

That is not true.
Retail petrol stations have a topline "price" they pay to the wholesaler which allows them to claim the are only making 3-5c per litre.

On top of this they receive a rebate back each month which can be 15-20c per litre. So there is more profit in the business then they claim.

nokia69

Time will tell boys, time will tell

smash

nokia69 wrote: »

Time will tell boys, time will tell

Why don't you read the links I've provided and come back with a proper response.

ScumLord

smash wrote: »

That's the point. They'll need a new pack, a few years after warranty, at which point the cost will outweigh the car's value.

Simple solution would be to either lease the car or the battery. The electric car itself will be pretty robust, outside of normal wear and tear the electric car has the potential to last forever. Companies could make their money leasing the car and refurbishing it for a new owner. They could make a very safe carbon fiber monocoque chassis that would last forever and just replace outer panels in a refurb to make it look like a new design.

It's only our economy and culture of buying short life span products and need to constantly sell new products that prevents a lease system. But we need to change that anyway.

smash

ScumLord wrote: »

Simple solution would be to either lease the car or the battery. The electric car itself will be pretty robust, outside of normal wear and tear the electric car has the potential to last forever. Companies could make their money leasing the car and refurbishing it for a new owner. They could make a very safe carbon fiber monocoque chassis that would last forever and just replace outer panels in a refurb to make it look like a new design.

It's only our economy and culture of buying short life span products and need to constantly sell new products that prevents a lease system. But we need to change that anyway.

Because people want to own a car. They want to buy it and pay a running cost, not a never ending lease.

ScumLord

smash wrote: »

Because people want to own a car. They want to buy it and pay a running cost, not a never ending lease.

They're not going to want to buy their own car if leasing works out much cheaper and you get a new car every couple of years. It's basically what they're doing now, they buy the car, let it devalue and then sell it on and repeat.

Lease packages often include maintenance. If you could lease an electric where the only charge you payed was your monthly lease cost, and it included everything from electricity, to new tyres and services, and it worked out cheaper than a regular car I think plenty of people would go for it.

smash

ScumLord wrote: »

They're not going to want to buy their own car if leasing works out much cheaper and you get a new car every couple of years. It's basically what they're doing now, they buy the car, let it devalue and then sell it on and repeat.

Lease packages often include maintenance. If you could lease an electric where the only charge you payed was your monthly lease cost, and it included everything from electricity, to new tyres and services, and it worked out cheaper than a regular car I think plenty of people would go for it.

I don't think so. A huge portion of people don't want to lease. They want ownership and will only look in to finance if necessary.

Special Circumstances

smash wrote: »

Because people want to own a car. They want to buy it and pay a running cost, not a never ending lease.

How many new cars are PCP financed, for more and more people having a new car is a never ending lease.

ScumLord

smash wrote: »

I don't think so. A huge portion of people don't want to lease. They want ownership and will only look in to finance if necessary.

If it's cheaper, they will lease. electric cars are a new method of transport, car companies are trying to make the electrics as much like current petrol/diesel cars as they can so as not to scare new customers. I think Tesla has broken through though and people are seeing the value in electric. So I think people would be open to a new way of paying for your private transport.

Many businesses already lease cars, vans. It's much more convenient to just pay one charge and let another company deal with the hassles of servicing. Especially on a vehicle (like a van) that's next to worthless at the end of it's lifespan.

Maximus Alexander

kneemos wrote: »

How many more power stations would we need if everyone had an EV?
Or how much more oil would we need to import to generate enough power?
Are they really any more environmentally friendly given most of our power comes from oil,coal and turf?

Internal combustion engines are horribly inefficient. Power generated at a plant is much, much more efficient than an internal combustion engine. So, even if the power is generated entirely from fossil fuels, it's better for the environment to do it in a plant.

But power is not generated entirely by fossil fuels, a gradually increasing part of that load is being handled by renewables.

So yes they really are more environmentally friendly.

Greyian

smash wrote: »

If you don't use the esb charge points, then you'll have to pay for on street parking. Which means public transport is cheaper than taking the car.

Ah here now, we were comparing EVs and ICEs. Do ICEs get free on-street parking? No. It's not an added cost for an EV when you're comparing it with an ICE. Sure, EV electricity costs more than ICE electricity, so ICE must be cheaper, right?

Fuel: EV is cheaper than ICE
Maintenance: EV is cheaper than ICE
Tax: EV is cheaper than ICE

smash

ScumLord wrote: »

If it's cheaper, they will lease. electric cars are a new method of transport, car companies are trying to make the electrics as much like current petrol/diesel cars as they can so as not to scare new customers. I think Tesla has broken through though and people are seeing the value in electric. So I think people would be open to a new way of paying for your private transport.

Many businesses already lease cars, vans. It's much more convenient to just pay one charge and let another company deal with the hassles of servicing. Especially on a vehicle (like a van) that's next to worthless at the end of it's lifespan.

We're not talking about businesses, we're talking about consumers who can pick up a car for 6/7k now and run it for another 10/15 years €40 a month in diesel and pay just over €100 a year in motor tax. These are not the people who'll pay a few hundred a month on a lease plus tax and charging costs and never own the thing.

nokia69

Like most tech it starts as a toy for the rich, 5 years latter the average man like me gets to buy one

The Tesla Model 3 is my next car

ScumLord

smash wrote: »

We're not talking about businesses, we're talking about consumers who can pick up a car for 6/7k now and run it for another 10/15 years €40 a month in diesel and pay just over €100 a year in motor tax. These are not the people who'll pay a few hundred a month on a lease plus tax and charging costs and never own the thing.

Are we talking about new cars, or second hand cars now?

EV isn't going to be competing with the bottom end of the market. For the next ten years it is going to be more towards the top end of the market. It's new technology, all new technology is expensive. If they can make electrics that can compete with new saloon cars the likes of a VW passat, people carriers like a citroen picasso, and hatchbacks like the VW golf, it's upper middle class people with families (these are the consumers companies want to sell too, everyone else is just a side dish) then they're selling to people that obsess over costs, safety issues, long term costs, how many kids I can fit in, running costs, and of course how much is it going to cost.