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Eurovision Song Contest 2016
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yerwanthere123 wrote: »Running order:
Semi-Final 1
1) Finland
2) Greece
3) Moldova
4) Hungary
5) Croatia
6) The Netherlands
7) Armenia
8) San Marino
9) Russia
10) Czech Republic
11) Cyprus
12) Austria
13) Estonia
14) Azerbaijan
15) Montenegro
16) Iceland
17) Bosnia & Herzegovina
18) Malta
Semi-Final 2:
1) Latvia
2) Poland
3) Switzerland
4) Israel
5) Belarus
6) Serbia
7) Ireland
8) FYR Macedonia
9) Lithuania
10) Australia
11) Slovenia
12) Romania
13) Bulgaria
14) Denmark
15) Ukraine
16) Norway
17) Georgia
18) Albania
19) Belgium
So not a terrible draw for Ireland. Still can't change the fact that the song is sh*te though.
It's prediction time then!
SF1: Greece, Hungary, Croatia, Armenia, Russia, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Iceland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Malta.
This is definitely the tougher of the two semis to predict. Russia are dead certs, and I would be very surprised if Armenia and Malta didn't qualify. But I wouldn't take anyone else for granted, and we may very well see a shock non-qualifier.
Part of me suspects Greece may fail to qualify for the first time ever (the Bosnian entry is quite similar but a little classier, so may take points from it) but the diaspora will probably push it through. I also have my doubts about Hungary, as it's not a particularly memorable song, but am going on the basis of their general good record over the past few years.
If any of the above fail to qualify, then The Netherlands, Estonia and Czech Republic are all in with a decent chance. Would be very surprised if any of the others made it through (though it would be rather fantastic if San Marino managed it somehow!
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SF2: Latvia, Poland, Serbia, Ireland, Australia, Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Norway, Belgium
Australia and Ukraine are safe as houses.
Latvia, Bulgaria and Norway should also be comfortable enough.
Serbia will be fine IF she manages to tone down the performance; I could see her turning off a lot of potential voters if she keeps up the amateur dramatics.
Romania's entry is strange but they, like Greece, always manage to get through.
Poland will probably be ok, on the strength of the singer rather than the song.
Belgium will benefit by going last, and I think this entry is being somewhat underrated.
Which leaves one slot left. I admit I'm being optimistic in giving it to Ireland but I'm hoping Nicky Byrne's name (if not his performance) will be enough to engage the inexplicably large fanbase Westlife have/had!
Of the other entries, Lithuania is the most similar to Ireland and may be the one to keep us out. I also wouldn't be surprised if either Macedonia or Israel made it through; like with Poland, it would be more a case of strong vocal rather than a strong song.
As for the rest:
Belarus is fun but too reliant on the "camp OTT performance" vote, much of which will probably go to Romania.
Switzerland is an ok-ish song but the live performance needs a major overhaul to have any hope.
I'm fond of Georgia but it's a bit inaccessible for a Eurovision entry; can't imagine it having enough appeal.
Albania is forgettable and badly translated - not gonna make it through.
And the less said about Slovenia, the better!0 -
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yerwanthere123 wrote: »Oh my, Romania have been kicked out of the competition!
http://wiwibloggs.com/2016/04/22/ebu-withdraws-romania-from-eurovision-due-to-non-payment-of-debts/138533/
Good news for Ireland, I guess. One less competitor in the semi-final. And though they never had a chance of winning, their previous record suggests they would have qualified.
Still, I feel bad for the performers.
And for all Romanian Eurovision fans. 0 -
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force eleven wrote: »Bulgaria for me looks every inch a winner...
Indeed have been tracking Bulgaria for a while now over on the other thread (focusing more on numerials & ROI), they even appeared up at 3rd fav position for a short while with the markets, just two days ago:
think the French one is terrible, Top5 prediction is:
1. Malta
2. Ireland
3. Russia
4. Latvia
5. Bulgaria
Wildcard's are Czech & Ire, both are/were considered rank outsiders. Germany isn't bad.0 -
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Patty O Furniture wrote: »I hear Bertie's goin to support Nicky, will he be in disguise, so's not to take attention away from Nicky
Btw: did i hear Romania got the boot for not paying a bill?
Yes
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=99478941&postcount=1550 -
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force eleven wrote: »Anyone who gives Ireland a chance of winning let alone qualifying is not thinking rationally. The fact RTE are now simply picking a song and sending it isn't good enough. Unless someone is going to pony up and sponsor a National Song Contest, we should not enter.
Pulling out of Eurovision is too easy an option, don't you think?
Meanwhile, the final will be shown live in the US for the first time - albeit on an LGBT cable network.
http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-361911430 -
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Anyone following rehearsals? No major shake ups, except Ukraine have moved to third favourite and Bulgaria have fallen away Staging not great unfortunately. The general consensus is now that Ireland definitely won't qualify, which I'm fine with. Not looking forward to all the usual 'what went wrong' crap which will blame everything except for the terrible song, and with RTE making lots of promises which they have no intention of acting upon. 0
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Bulgaria still holding strong, price starting to re-stabilise, and a decent performance from the jolly upbeat lady. will qualify easily.
Ukraine for me is a curiosity, far from being a cheery number unlike most others, it has slightly political overtones, and dare I say - she even appears a tad 'deranged' on stage. This all upon a backing track made on a single Casio CT-470 keyboard. Herbal tea recommended.
Agree Ire's rehearsal was very poor, a lifeless backing band, only a few torches to light it up along with heaps of reverb-feedback. It even looked like he had his hand in his pockets at one stage, someone get them all a few redbulls & vodka before clambering up there again, and all will be well. Considering they've hired a behind the scenes stage & production team, someone needs to get out the pen & paper pronto.
On the plus side, does offer extra value to backers of both Bulg & Ire.
Estimated positions for SF-2 below, wouldn't agree with all most of these numbers all the same.
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SF2 (2nd rehearsal) - they managed to get a few more lights turned on and a disco ball, but still a very static, dry performance.
The bpm rate seems also to have dropped down a few notches.
He really needs to get away from that mic stand, perhaps an emulated dash around the front of the stage handing out yellow led lit helium orbs of metaphorical sunlight to the young wans. Failing that, a trip down to Ikea in the van to get a €99 1kw floodlight and do a Rattle and Hum album cover recreation, ideally get out on a zip line too.
Bulgaria still rocking their gig: synchronised cheorography, lights and energy. take note.0 -
Ariya Sharp Warship wrote: »SF2 (2nd rehearsal) - they managed to get a few more lights turned on and a disco ball, but still a very static, dry performance.
The bpm rate seems also to have dropped down a few notches.
He really needs to get away from that mic stand, perhaps an emulated dash around the front of the stage handing out yellow led lit helium orbs of metaphorical sunlight to the young wans. Failing that, a trip down to Ikea in the van to get a €99 1kw floodlight and do a Rattle and Hum album cover recreation, ideally get out on a zip line too.
Bulgaria still rocking their gig: synchronised cheorography, lights and energy. take note.
It is possible that the performance might work better with a big arena audience. A lot of the acts are very choreography and stage centred but something like Sunlight might just come to life with a big crowd to bounce off.0 -
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Ariya Sharp Warship wrote: »SF2 (2nd rehearsal) - they managed to get a few more lights turned on and a disco ball, but still a very static, dry performance.
The bpm rate seems also to have dropped down a few notches.
He really needs to get away from that mic stand, perhaps an emulated dash around the front of the stage handing out yellow led lit helium orbs of metaphorical sunlight to the young wans. Failing that, a trip down to Ikea in the van to get a €99 1kw floodlight and do a Rattle and Hum album cover recreation, ideally get out on a zip line too.
Bulgaria still rocking their gig: synchronised cheorography, lights and energy. take note.
Really? The general consensus is pretty negative, she's fallen way down the odds. Many believe this is turning into a Russia-Ukraine battle for the title now. I think Latvia are capable of pulling off a surprise though.0 -
Ariya Sharp Warship wrote: »Failing that, a trip down to Ikea in the van to get a €99 1kw floodlight and do a Rattle and Hum album cover recreation, ideally get out on a zip line too.
And the nearest Ikea shouldn't be too far from the Ericsson Globe...yerwanthere123 wrote: »Many believe this is turning into a Russia-Ukraine battle for the title now. I think Latvia are capable of pulling off a surprise though.
Ooh, a battle for the Eurovision in addition to a battle for control of the Crimea...
Could it be argued that it is time an Eastern European country won again? The last one to do so was Azerbaijan in 2011, and the last one before that was Russia in 2008.
Of course, Alexander Rybak could have chosen to represent his native Belarus in 2009 but didn't, and no doubt many still feel that Polina was robbed last year... 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »It's prediction time then!
SF1: Greece, Hungary, Croatia, Armenia, Russia, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Iceland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Malta.
SF2: Latvia, Poland, Serbia, Ireland, Australia, Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Norway, Belgium
!
Gonna have to tweak my original predictions before it all kicks off tomorrow night.
For Semi-Final 1 I'm now gonna go for Czech Republic and Netherlands qualifying, instead of Azerbaijan and Hungary.
Czech Republic will pick up jury votes where Azerbaijan will lose them; the quality of the vocals.
And Hungary just doesn't have anything particularly memorable about it, whereas the Dutch song gets in your head (even if you don't like it).
I would love to see Estonia and San Marino go through but I fear their entries won't have enough appeal.
For Semi-Final 2 I'm gonna stick my neck out and predict that Belarus will get through; I think Romania's loss is going to be their gain.
The final place could literally go to any of the remaining countries (except Slovenia, because obvious reasons) but sadly I am now more pessimistic about Ireland's chances. My head says it will be Israel who go through; even though I think it's one of the worst songs this year, it seems to be going down well. Though if it's not gonna be Ireland, I would love to see Georgia go through. :cool:yerwanthere123 wrote: »Really? The general consensus is pretty negative, she's fallen way down the odds. Many believe this is turning into a Russia-Ukraine battle for the title now. I think Latvia are capable of pulling off a surprise though.
It is looking more and more like its Russia's to lose right now. I don't think it deserves it tbh (I like the verses, and the staging, but the chorus leaves me cold) but at least it's better than the crap they somehow won with in 2008!
I think Armenia may be one to watch for a "surprise" win. But we shall see....
If I was to guess right now what the top ten will be on Saturday night, I'd go for the following:
1. Russia
2. Armenia
3. Sweden
4. Ukraine
5. Australia
6. France
7. Malta
8. Bulgaria
9. Iceland
10. Italy (or Latvia. Or Serbia. Fúck it, I dunno!)
And I suspect Germany may suffer the indignity of winning the wooden spoon for a second year in a row (though I doubt there'll be any nul pointer in the final).
I look forward to revisiting this on Sunday to see how hilariously wrong my predictions were! :pac:0 -
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Go Harvey Go wrote: »And the nearest Ikea shouldn't be too far from the Ericsson Globe...
Ooh, a battle for the Eurovision in addition to a battle for control of the Crimea...
Could it be argued that it is time an Eastern European country won again? The last one to do so was Azerbaijan in 2011, and the last one before that was Russia in 2008.
Of course, Alexander Rybak could have chosen to represent his native Belarus in 2009 but didn't, and no doubt many still feel that Polina was robbed last year...
Including me! :pac:Deleted User wrote: »Gonna have to tweak my original predictions before it all kicks off tomorrow night.
For Semi-Final 1 I'm now gonna go for Czech Republic and Netherlands qualifying, instead of Azerbaijan and Hungary.
Czech Republic will pick up jury votes where Azerbaijan will lose them; the quality of the vocals.
And Hungary just doesn't have anything particularly memorable about it, whereas the Dutch song gets in your head (even if you don't like it).
I would love to see Estonia and San Marino go through but I fear their entries won't have enough appeal.
For Semi-Final 2 I'm gonna stick my neck out and predict that Belarus will get through; I think Romania's loss is going to be their gain.
The final place could literally go to any of the remaining countries (except Slovenia, because obvious reasons) but sadly I am now more pessimistic about Ireland's chances. My head says it will be Israel who go through; even though I think it's one of the worst songs this year, it seems to be going down well. Though if it's not gonna be Ireland, I would love to see Georgia go through. :cool:
It is looking more and more like its Russia's to lose right now. I don't think it deserves it tbh (I like the verses, and the staging, but the chorus leaves me cold) but at least it's better than the crap they somehow won with in 2008!
I think Armenia may be one to watch for a "surprise" win. But we shall see....
If I was to guess right now what the top ten will be on Saturday night, I'd go for the following:
1. Russia
2. Armenia
3. Sweden
4. Ukraine
5. Australia
6. France
7. Malta
8. Bulgaria
9. Iceland
10. Italy (or Latvia. Or Serbia. Fúck it, I dunno!)
And I suspect Germany may suffer the indignity of winning the wooden spoon for a second year in a row (though I doubt there'll be any nul pointer in the final).
I look forward to revisiting this on Sunday to see how hilariously wrong my predictions were! :pac:
I'll hold off revising mine until I actually see them being performed tomorrow, so far I've primarily been going on what I've read. I try not to watch the rehearsals before hand, I want to keep some element of surprise for the final.
I'd love the Czech Republic to get through, they totally deserve it, but it's difficult to know with their poor record in the contest. Then again they've rarely sent a song worthy of qualification, so maybe this is finally the year. I swear if they don't make it and Greece do...
Yes I too am veering towards a Russia win. Their biggest rivals seem to have fallen away in rehearsals, although you never know how things go on the night. Ukraine are gaining on them but there's now way it's going to get enough televotes to actually win. Plus the new voting system restores a lot of the previous power that the bloc/diaspora voting had, and this obviously plays into Russia's hands. So right now I think Russia will be the winner by default, although as I've previously said you never know how it can work out on the night. Even at this point two years ago we had no idea Austria could win and that The Netherlands could come second.
Thanks for the reminder of Russia winning in 2008 btw, them beating Ani Lorak to the title must surely rank among Eurovision's greatest ever injustices?0 -
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Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »I'm thinking this might be France's year. It's the kind of song that should score well assuming the performance is up to scratch. It's currently the third favourite.
It probably helps that the chorus is in English - and that there doesn't seem to be much outcry in France over this.
Lest we forget, there was war when Sébastien Tellier's "Divine" was selected in '08:
I still think Amaury Vassili's "Sognu" should have done better than 15th in '11, though. It may not have had any English lyrics - but how often do you hear operatic pop in Corsican?yerwanthere123 wrote: »Thanks for the reminder of Russia winning in 2008 btw, them beating Ani Lorak to the title must surely rank among Eurovision's greatest ever injustices?
I feel I should mention Sirusho and "Qele Qele" again.
I don't think it can be denied that her ranking was boosted by the huge number of Armenian expatriates in continental Europe. But to pick up eight 12s, more than anyone else, and get nothing from no less than 15 countries is still quite remarkable - and probably not very likely to be repeated.
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