#GE16 - North Kildare

Orion

Only weeks left so how do people see this going?

Declared candidates so far:

Réada Cronin, Sinn Fein
Bernard Durkan, Fine Gael
Shane Fitzgerald, Renua Ireland
James Lawless, Fianna Fáil
Anthony Lawlor, Fine Gael
Ashling Merriman, PBPA
Catherine Murphy, Social Democrats
Maebh Ní Fhallún, Green
Frank O'Rourke, Fianna Fáil
Emmett Stagg , Labour
Brendan Young, Community Solidarity

Murphy and Durkan are guaranteed seats. After that there'll be a battle. FF will probably get one - my money is on Lawless simply because Naas always elect a TD. I think Lawlor will lose his seat - which is a shame in a way - I'm not a supporter of FG but Lawlor is a good worker and a decent guy. After that it's between a couple. Stagg or Cronin. I think Cronin will get in ahead of Stagg. He's a solid base of votes but she's been out canvassing for months now and got in on the first count in the locals. Plus the Labour backlash and people are tired of the same old faces won't work well for Stagg.

I'd have included Young in there as an outsider (very high odds outsider) but PBPA have put paid to that. Can't believe they are running a candidate against him - they supported him when he declared and now they're going to split the left-wing vote. Typical SWM/SWP/PBPA short-sightedness. They really do themselves no favours.

So in order of election to my thinking:
Murphy - 1st count
Durkan - 1st count
Lawless
Cronin

L1011

Durkan isn't going to get in on the first count (or even guaranteed a seat to be honest; bad vote split for FG could finish him). He topped the poll during a huge FG boost in 2011, but he got in last in 07 and 02 (and 92, came second in 97).

Murphy will top the poll and may have to consider why there wasn't a running mate with the surplus I think. FF are very, very likely to get a seat unless something goes hideously wrong with their vote management. Still think two candidates was a bad idea for them but as I'd prefer if they had none elected I'm going to see it as a good one!

Orion

L1011 wrote: »

Durkan isn't going to get in on the first count (or even guaranteed a seat to be honest; bad vote split for FG could finish him). He topped the poll during a huge FG boost in 2011, but he got in last in 07 and 02 (and 92, came second in 97).

Murphy will top the poll and may have to consider why there wasn't a running mate with the surplus I think. FF are very, very likely to get a seat unless something goes hideously wrong with their vote management. Still think two candidates was a bad idea for them but as I'd prefer if they had none elected I'm going to see it as a good one!

There is still a large FG vote and Durkan is the most likely. You're probably right about not being first count (that was an error on my part - I put it on the wrong line and the copied rather than cut to Murphy).

I agree about being delighted if FF get none but think it's very unlikely. Was very surprised to see them field a second candidate - especially as those two do not get on and there's a big split against O'Rourke within the local party but, as you say, unless they screw it up very badly they will get one. All other likely candidates are from the Maynooth/Leixlip area so Lawless is the likely winner. He'll split votes with Lawlor which will hurt him in favour of Durkan.

So if FF don't get a seat who would be the 4th? Stagg?

Other candidates could declare between now and then but can't think of any, bar one (McEvoy), who'd have an impact. Even if he does declare he's another Naas/Clane candidate so would have an uphill battle at this point.

L1011

Orion wrote: »

So if FF don't get a seat who would be the 4th? Stagg?

If not already in - I don't see Cronin getting in myself as SF have always lagged their national vote here; whereas Labour outperformed theirs in the locals last year.

There will almost inevitably be a few more declared candidates of the 200 votes type - never had an election without them in recent memory!

Orion

I don't see how you say Labour outperformed. They didn't reach a quota in any of the electoral areas bar Athy. McGinley, Breen and Byrne got in on their last counts without a quota. In total across the county they got half the votes of FF and Ind and barely outperformed SF who got 2 elected on the first count (Maynooth and Naas). That's a serious under-performing from a government party.

CBFi

First time voting in North Kildare. Recently moved here. Obviously familiar with Catherine Murphy. In your opinions, which candidates are worth a seat in the Dail? Not interested in parish pump politics, that's the locals.

L1011

Orion wrote: »

I don't see how you say Labour outperformed.

Compared to the national poll, they did. Had to check the numbers to make certain, so here they are:

~10.1% of first preferences in Maynooth LEA, ~14.3% in Naas, ~17.5% in Celbridge/Leixlip as opposed to 7.2% nationally. All are outperforming the national figure, the latter two heavily

SF got 10.5%, 12.3%, 8% respectively on a 15.2% national, so underperformed the national figures.

This has been the trend for both parties for a while - Labour going back 30 years, SF more recently.

Orion

You'll get different answers from everyone. I'm a fan of Murphy and Young. I wouldn't vote FF, FG or Labour in a fit. PBPA are splitting the left wing vote which is inexcusable. I like Reada personally but can't see myself voting SF. I'll give Green a sympathy vote for old times sake.

Best thing is to read up on the different candidates/parties and make up your own mind. Most have facebook pages and websites. You can guarantee they'll be knocking on your door in the next few weeks so have your questions ready for them too.

n97 mini

I won't be giving Catherine Murphy a vote this time around, or any of the other incumbents. The crime detection rates are the worst in the country and while they'll all been harping on about it none of them seem to be able to do anything about the resource shortfall. Not to mention all the other things they haven't been able to achieve for the constituency.

I voted for Shane Fitzgerald when he was a GP candidate way back, although I've never met the man. I just read recently that he's originally from Mayo. What is it about politicians and Mayo.

Orion

Fair enough. Was looking at final results not 1st prefs. Shows how poorly they transferred though which is the real test. McGinley as an example got 927 1st prefs but only ended up with 1188 on count 10 - less than 200 transfers. Teresa Murray got more than that in 5 counts.

Orion

n97 mini wrote: »

I won't be giving Catherine Murphy a vote this time around, or any of the other incumbents. The crime detection rates are the worst in the country and while they'll all been harping on about it none of them seem to be able to do anything about the resource shortfall. Not to mention all the other things they haven't been able to achieve for the constituency.

I voted for Shane Fitzgerald when he was a GP candidate way back, although I've never met the man. I just read recently that he's originally from Mayo. What is it about politicians and Mayo.

That's a bit harsh on Murphy - government parties are the ones responsible for the cutbacks - not independents. She has done her best but is the only non-government TD in North Kildare so has limited impact. Look at her record in rooting out corruption - specifically in Siteserv. That alone would have made be vote for her if I wasn't anyway.

There's absolutely no way I'd vote for Renua. They make UKIP look centrist left.

L1011

I don't see how someone could go from the Greens to Renua, other than by a desperate desire to get elected under any flag of convenience.

Won't be voting Renua (UKIP-like, as above), FF (party is as yet unchanged), SF (ditto) or PBP (economic illiterates) anyway. The rest have their chances yet.

n97 mini

Siteserv, DOB, Irish Water is precisely why I won't vote for her as I feel she spends too much time on those.

In the meantime Kildare North has a massive deficit in resources and services that I think stronger or better connected TDs would be able to address (I'm stuck for names though!).

The new GP candidate grew up here so presumably understands the situation, so she might be worth a punt. Ditto I won't rule out Shane Fitzgerald or anyone else if they campaign on these basic local issues that are relevant to me and my family.

BaronVon

n97 mini wrote: »

I won't be giving Catherine Murphy a vote this time around, or any of the other incumbents. The crime detection rates are the worst in the country and while they'll all been harping on about it none of them seem to be able to do anything about the resource shortfall. Not to mention all the other things they haven't been able to achieve for the constituency.

TBF, none of the 3 government TD's can get anything done either. Every time it's brought up, the answer is it's an operational decision for the Garda Commissioner.

At least Murphy called the Garda Policing Plan a work of fiction, which it it!

Orion

n97 mini wrote: »

Siteserv, DOB, Irish Water is precisely why I won't vote for her as I feel she spends too much time on those.

In the meantime Kildare North has a massive deficit in resources and services that I think stronger or better connected TDs would be able to address (I'm stuck for names though!).

This is the problem with politics in this country. I will vote for Murphy precisely because she focuses on issues of national importance. Too many TDs and Ministers spend too much time on local issues when they are actually elected as national representatives. Local politics is for local politicians. National issues is for TDs. Until that mentality changes fcuk all else will in this country.

L1011

We need councils and hence councillors to be given vastly more power for that to work in practice unfortunately. Needs to happen but likely won't

n97 mini

L1011 wrote: »

We need councils and hence councillors to be given vastly more power for that to work in practice unfortunately. Needs to happen but likely won't

Precisely. And every drop of energy expended by those that do have the power chasing Siteserv or Irish Water is one less effort getting things that people in other areas take for granted. Basic things, like sufficient numbers of gardai, a swimming pool etc. I'm not talking about pothole-filling for individuals or a hospital in every town, I'm talking things that would benefit the entire constituency and are not unreasonable.

micks

Orion wrote: »

Only weeks left so how do people see this going?

Declared candidates so far:

Réada Cronin, Sinn Fein
Bernard Durkan, Fine Gael
Shane Fitzgerald, Renua Ireland
James Lawless, Fianna Fáil
Anthony Lawlor, Fine Gael
Ashling Merriman, PBPA
Catherine Murphy, Social Democrats
Maebh Ní Fhallún, Green
Frank O'Rourke, Fianna Fáil
Emmett Stagg , Labour
Brendan Young, Community Solidarity

Murphy and Durkan are guaranteed seats. After that there'll be a battle. FF will probably get one - my money is on Lawless simply because Naas always elect a TD. I think Lawlor will lose his seat - which is a shame in a way - I'm not a supporter of FG but Lawlor is a good worker and a decent guy. After that it's between a couple. Stagg or Cronin. I think Cronin will get in ahead of Stagg. He's a solid base of votes but she's been out canvassing for months now and got in on the first count in the locals. Plus the Labour backlash and people are tired of the same old faces won't work well for Stagg.

I'd have included Young in there as an outsider (very high odds outsider) but PBPA have put paid to that. Can't believe they are running a candidate against him - they supported him when he declared and now they're going to split the left-wing vote. Typical SWM/SWP/PBPA short-sightedness. They really do themselves no favours.

So in order of election to my thinking:
Murphy - 1st count
Durkan - 1st count
Lawless
Cronin

out of interest whats Lawlor done to make him a hard worker?

n97 mini

Bernard Durkan made the headlines a couple of years ago over his use of parliamentary questions, a large portion of which were to do with asylum cases and local authority housing:

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/tds-2500-questions-come-at-halfmillion-euro-cost-to-taxpayer-26808385.html

BaronVon

micks wrote: »

out of interest whats Lawlor done to make him a hard worker?

I'd agree, wouldn't rate Lawlor at all. I'd be surprised if he's reelected!

HonalD

micks wrote: »

out of interest whats Lawlor done to make him a hard worker?

I would be keen to hear more too.

HonalD

n97 mini wrote: »

Precisely. And every drop of energy expended by those that do have the power chasing Siteserv or Irish Water is one less effort getting things that people in other areas take for granted. Basic things, like sufficient numbers of gardai, a swimming pool etc. I'm not talking about pothole-filling for individuals or a hospital in every town, I'm talking things that would benefit the entire constituency and are not unreasonable.

You're making an interesting point. Personally, I'm disappointed with the lack of engagement with her North Kildare voters, to be honest.

I don't need a pot hole filled but there are many infrastructure projects not getting done by the Government but barely any opposition to the lack of progress.

Staplor

Catherine Murphy is the only one I believe can solve the Garda issue. When I questioned them last time around she was the only one who knew anything solid on the issue, and the steps needed to remedy it.

I've had one of the others call around, and he was very much of the "I'm on a committee investigating....." ilk.

Haven't seen anything from the others, so those others sitting will not get a vote from me.

n97 mini

She's been going on about policing in KN since 2006 (on her website) and in more earnest since 2012. She's now 5 years in office, and if anything the policing figures are worse than when she was elected in 2011.

I think if she was able to improve the situation she would have done so by now.

Staplor

Things take time to change, I've more faith her her than any of the others. Policing is my major issue with Kildare

n97 mini

All that she has to really achieve on the matter is the stroke of a pen, i.e. just to get the minister to devote more resources to the area. How much worse does it have to get for that to happen?

Staplor

Minister doesn't do it, the minister can't, she was the only candidate who was up enough on the issue to give a proper answer on it.

Realistically politics moves outside of 5 year cycles, that's the main reason our country is in the 5hitter, unless it can be achieved in 5 years we ain't doing it. I just think she's actually done things, and been vocal on issues.

The only incident I can think of involving another TD from the constituency was using "the most unparliamentary language".

BaronVon

Staplor wrote: »

Minister doesn't do it, the minister can't, she was the only candidate who was up enough on the issue to give a proper answer on it.

Realistically politics moves outside of 5 year cycles, that's the main reason our country is in the 5hitter, unless it can be achieved in 5 years we ain't doing it. I just think she's actually done things, and been vocal on issues.

The only incident I can think of involving another TD from the constituency was using "the most unparliamentary language".

No TD appears to be able to do anything about it. The standard PQ answer is 'resourcing is a matter for the Garda Commissioner', so unless the next Commissioner is from North Kildare, you may forget about it. Any potential candidate who says otherwise is lying to you.

In fairness to Bernard Durkan, he has raised a lot of Policing issues in the Dail, particulary in regards to injuries on duty, and the lack of replacement Gardaí for maternity leave etc. As he will most likely be in the government, he could be your man!

n97 mini

infacteh wrote: »

he could be your man!

Or someone who hasn't been elected before could be either!

ghostdancer

n97 mini wrote: »

All that she has to really achieve on the matter is the stroke of a pen, i.e. just to get the minister to devote more resources to the area. How much worse does it have to get for that to happen?

I think you have a very poor grasp of politics in this country, or the power of an opposition TD, let alone TDs in general, if you think more resources can be devoted by the stroke of Catherine Murphy's pen.


I'll be voting for Murphy as I generally like what I've heard from the Social Democrats overall, and I'd far prefer them to be in the mix for forming a government than some of the dafter leftist independent groupings, or the socially-backwards Renua.

n97 mini

ghostdancer wrote: »

I think you have a very poor grasp of politics in this country, or the power of an opposition TD, let alone TDs in general, if you think more resources can be devoted by the stroke of Catherine Murphy's pen.

Sorry, you misunderstood my post. The minister can effect change at the stroke of a pen, but no KN politician seems to be able to persuade the minister to, Catherine Murphy included, so I'd consider her time up. She's had five years.

The fact that she has become part of the Social Democrats, whom I'd see as potentially economically illiterate (to use L1011's phrase) makes me less inclined to support her.

My grasp of politics is just fine.