#GE16 - North Kildare

Nokia6230i

I've posted this in the KE South Thread but it's a bit like Tumbleweed there so am reposting here to try get a response quicker.

Friend of mine in Kilberry (near/just outside Athy) says his vote has been transferred to Laois constituency since Boundary Commission redrew the boundary.....this stack up?

Please and thank you.

granturismo

Nokia6230i wrote: »

I've posted this in the KE South Thread but it's a bit like Tumbleweed there so am reposting here to try get a response quicker.

Friend of mine in Kilberry (near/just outside Athy) says his vote has been transferred to Laois constituency since Boundary Commission redrew the boundary.....this stack up?

Please and thank you.

Internet doesnt always provide an answer within 1 minute.

Your friend appears to be concerned that he/she has had their vote moved to a different constituency as a result of the 2013 Boundary Commission...stacks up.

If you trust wikipedia, do an internet search for 'kilberry kildare constituency'.

HonalD

Joe Public wrote: »

I said I'm not a FF supporter but am impressed by this particular FF candidate and think he is worth a mention and a vote.
Does that make me a supporter?

There's certainly no law against being one.

HonalD

Nokia6230i wrote: »

I've posted this in the KE South Thread but it's a bit like Tumbleweed there so am reposting here to try get a response quicker.

Friend of mine in Kilberry (near/just outside Athy) says his vote has been transferred to Laois constituency since Boundary Commission redrew the boundary.....this stack up?

Please and thank you.

Its not along the county line. Monasterevin is also not in Kildare South either.

L1011

There is another candidate I've not seen mentioned that's in last weeks Champion - Elizabeth O'Sullivan. Not seen any other notice of her - might even get less than Beirne!

Orion

Anatom wrote: »

He's at 1/5 on apparently. Murphy at 1/80 on, and Lawless at 4/11...

Here's the current odds:

• Catherine Murphy (Social Democrats) 1/80
• Bernard Durkan (Fine Gael) 1/5
• James Lawless (Fianna Fail) 4/11
• Emmet Stagg (Labour) 4/9
• Frank O'Rourke (Fianna Fail) 5/4
• Anthony Lawlor (Fine Gael) 6/4
• Reada Cronin (Sinn Fein) 7/4
• Ashling Merriman (AAA-PBP) 66/1
• Shane Fitzgerald (Renua) 66/1
• Brendan Young (Ind) 80/1
• Gerard Dunne (Ind) 100/1
• Elizabeth O'Sullivan (Ind) 100/1
• Michael Beirne (Ind) 100/1
• Maebh Ni Fhalluin (Green Party) 100/1

Personally I think Stagg and the two FF are too short and Cronin too long. Cronin was 3/1 this day last week.

www.irishelectionstats.com has SF at 42% to get a seat ahead of both O'Rourke and Lawless. That said it also has Stagg at 81% which I think is unlikely. Also worth bearing in mind that Paddy Power lost money on the last election. Not a lot but betting on politics is small fry compared to sports betting but does mean they don't necessarily get it right.

Either way the fight for the last two seats is looking like it's going to be close (Murphy and Durkan getting the first two obviously).

a very cool kid

Orion wrote: »

Here's the current odds:

• Catherine Murphy (Social Democrats) 1/80
• Bernard Durkan (Fine Gael) 1/5
• James Lawless (Fianna Fail) 4/11
• Emmet Stagg (Labour) 4/9
• Frank O'Rourke (Fianna Fail) 5/4
• Anthony Lawlor (Fine Gael) 6/4
• Reada Cronin (Sinn Fein) 7/4
• Ashling Merriman (AAA-PBP) 66/1
• Shane Fitzgerald (Renua) 66/1
• Brendan Young (Ind) 80/1
• Gerard Dunne (Ind) 100/1
• Elizabeth O'Sullivan (Ind) 100/1
• Michael Beirne (Ind) 100/1
• Maebh Ni Fhalluin (Green Party) 100/1

Personally I think Stagg and the two FF are too short and Cronin too long. Cronin was 3/1 this day last week.

www.irishelectionstats.com has SF at 42% to get a seat ahead of both O'Rourke and Lawless. That said it also has Stagg at 81% which I think is unlikely. Also worth bearing in mind that Paddy Power lost money on the last election. Not a lot but betting on politics is small fry compared to sports betting but does mean they don't necessarily get it right.

Either way the fight for the last two seats is looking like it's going to be close (Murphy and Durkan getting the first two obviously).

The methodology on that site doesn't take into account how transfer toxic the provo political wing is. Very much an unlikely toss up between O'Rourke & Stagg

Orion

Rosahane wrote: »

The only canvassers I have seem were Lawlor's the other night and Murphy who called when we were out.

I asked the chap canvassing for Lawlor to get him to call around - which he did. I thought he was pretty good - forthright, realistic and pragmatic. Prepared to listen, debate and gently disagree when our points of view differed. A nice guy that you would go for a pint with.

This was in marked contrast to Durkan and Brady, the only two I nabbed five years ago who came across as arrogant and dismissive!

I do like Tony. Nice guy and was out beating the streets for the Marriage Referendum every night while Durkan sat on his arse. Always struck me as a sound guy who is not afraid of hard work. If he'd stayed Independent he would get a preference from me but not as Fine Gael. Durkan is a pompous arse and I totally agree about Brady - when she called to my door in 2011 she was completely arrogant and hadn't a clue about an issue I (and many other parents in the area) had written to her about.

L1011

SF had the only statistically significant moves in any polls over the weekend (down) so PP will have adjusted their odds accordingly. They're also still the most transfer repellent party in the country in figures in the Business Post where they asked for who people will never transfer to - 50% said they'd never transfer to SF.

Orion

Nokia6230i wrote: »

I've posted this in the KE South Thread but it's a bit like Tumbleweed there so am reposting here to try get a response quicker.

Friend of mine in Kilberry (near/just outside Athy) says his vote has been transferred to Laois constituency since Boundary Commission redrew the boundary.....this stack up?

Please and thank you.

He's could be right.
From http://www.irishtimes.com/election-2016/kildare-south
Constituency changes
The constituency has lost six electoral divisions, with a population of just over 7,000, to the new constituency of Laois. That includes parts of west Kildare including Kildangan, Monasterevin and Churchtown.

Orion

a very cool kid wrote: »

The methodology on that site doesn't take into account how transfer toxic the provo political wing is. Very much an unlikely toss up between O'Rourke & Stagg

I think he has taken it into account but I agree transfers are her problem. But if she gets 7000 1st preferences she's in the running. Don't forget she got in on the first count in the locals - she can't be written off. She will get some transfers from the likes of Murphy, Young and Merriman.

Orion

L1011 wrote: »

SF had the only statistically significant moves in any polls over the weekend (down) so PP will have adjusted their odds accordingly

Yet her odds came in from 3/1 to 7/4.

L1011

Orion wrote: »

Yet her odds came in from 3/1 to 7/4.

I should probably explain I don't gamble very much and misunderstood the movement :P

They have to lay off bets also; in a market like this 50 quid can make a significant move

Orion

L1011 wrote: »

There is another candidate I've not seen mentioned that's in last weeks Champion - Elizabeth O'Sullivan. Not seen any other notice of her - might even get less than Beirne!

Healthcare assistant from Celbridge - that's all I can find out about her.

She's splitting the Celbridge vote with Beirne

Orion

L1011 wrote: »

I should probably explain I don't gamble very much and misunderstood the movement :P

They have to lay off bets also; in a market like this 50 quid can make a significant move

Essentially it means that she has moved from a 25% chance of success to 36.4%.

They don't just rely on betting patterns - they do their own polling too. The recently hired Red C to poll Dub mid-west and dropped Joan Burton to 5% as a result.

Rosahane

Just heard Conor Lenihan on Morning Ireland saying that, among others, he has been canvassing for O'Rourke.

Shriek!!

mcgovern

I see O'Rourke is the only candidate that didn't respect the agreement and has put up a big poster in Leixlip village.
Nice to see how much he thinks of our wishes.

granturismo

I'm not a FF supporter but James Lawless will be getting a vote from me purely on work he has done locally over the years. I've noticed on some of his larger posters he has 'give O'Rourke a second preference' or similiar wording albeit in small text, but I havent noticed O'Rourke reciprocating on his large and huge posters.

Joe Public

HonalD wrote: »

There's certainly no law against being one.

Tell that to the whinger

Banjoxed

L1011 wrote: »

SF had the only statistically significant moves in any polls over the weekend (down) so PP will have adjusted their odds accordingly. They're also still the most transfer repellent party in the country in figures in the Business Post where they asked for who people will never transfer to - 50% said they'd never transfer to SF.

I wonder what happened there on a tactical basis. They were all things to all men on the first week of the campaign, then Gerry ran for cover to the base on the SCC, killing transfers.

Rosahane

Banjoxed wrote: »

I wonder what happened there on a tactical basis. They were all things to all men on the first week of the campaign, then Gerry ran for cover to the base on the SCC, killing transfers.

The problem for SF was that the election campaign allowed commentators and other politicians to ask them questions about their policies and they weren't able (although they tried) to obfuscate and avoid.

For the last five years they have got a soft ride - particularly on RTE where they were given disproportionate airtime and were allowed to waffle without being pulled up.

I think it says a lot that in many instances over the past few years they put Eoin O'Broin forward as their spokesperson on panels where there were other competent politicians, economists or experts. He is without doubt the most capable person they have but was only a Counciller.
Why weren't Snoddy, Ferris, O'Caolain and all the other senior members given an airing - two guesses!

Anatom

SF smack of bad media and interview preparation. They seem to me to have done far too little rehearsal in answering the difficult questions.

Browning

Three number #1 for Lawless in my house. Not a Fianna Failer by any stretch of the imagination but in terms of work done on the ground he wins hands down. Too many of the candidates only made an appearance on the ground when the flag was about to fall on the campaign. Too many others sticking to their urban heartlands only to show an interest in the rural areas when things are not going to plan. Lawless does both and was working about when the others where in the queue for the dail bar or waiting to collect the expenses cheque. O'Rourke is a right man for the photo opportunity lately, turn up at the opening of a door. Don't have much time for the people backing him. One came to my door, a developer who I know, he spent most of his time slagging off James Lawless instead of having a go at the real targets.

Mycroft H

Is there any reason to vote for Durken? I've never heard of him involved in anything in the Dail and he's not a name local to the rural NW Kildare.

Lawlor called to my door and seems to be further in touch with rural issues.

1. Ní Fhallúin - I like her health policys and the parties policies.
2. Murphy. It's either an 1 or 2 for her.

I've no real idea beyond that.

Anatom

I agree entirely on ^ above.

I had heard there was some bad-mouthing going on a week or two ago, but thought it had stopped.

Rosahane

Anatom wrote: »

SF smack of bad media and interview preparation. They seem to me to have done far too little rehearsal in answering the difficult questions.

I believe that they have a crib sheet which outlines their policies and they are expected to stick to this.

The problem is that many of their candidates (and they're not unique in this) have little understanding of the complexities and economic balances of a modern western democracy. Many of their candidates also appear to have little or no business or professional experience coming from an internal "community worker" background.

They need a lot more people of the calibre of O'Broin.

Orion

Beirne has an ad in last week's Champion which I only got today.



Eugenics eh?

In his leaflet he also wants "no abortion on demand, culling of the weak" as well as a "substantial cut in foreign aid and no further intake of refugees"

Who gave this cracker day release?

Orion

Orion wrote: »

Healthcare assistant from Celbridge - that's all I can find out about her.

She's splitting the Celbridge vote with Beirne

Article about her in the paper too. Was FF, didn't get selected as candidate in the locals in 2014 so left the party and is running as Independent.

Anatom

Rosahane wrote: »

I believe that they have a crib sheet which outlines their policies and they are expected to stick to this.

The problem is that many of their candidates (and they're not unique in this) have little understanding of the complexities and economic balances of a modern western democracy. Many of their candidates also appear to have little or no business or professional experience coming from an internal "community worker" background.

They need a lot more people of the calibre of O'Broin.

I agree. And I also agree that they're not completely alone. It just appears to me that FF, FG and Labour deputies or candidates seem to be better prepared and better able to answer the questions people put to them. I'm not sure why that is. Perhaps their parties' cultures are such that they're exposed to more debate from a younger age and so they're better performers when it comes to being at the top table. They are probably more from the "professional" classes too which goes to your point about business / professional experience. I'm not saying that's true across the board (they've all had some donkeys down the years), but by and large that would be my impression.

Orion

Anatom wrote: »

I agree entirely on ^ above.

I had heard there was some bad-mouthing going on a week or two ago, but thought it had stopped.

They can't stand each other. O'Rourke blames Lawless and unnamed factions for him not getting the nomination from the cumann. Lawless and his cronies around Maynooth think he's a ... well use your imagination.

Perfect example in Lawless' newspaper ad. Photos with Caldwell in Leixlip, Ward in Kilcock, Naoise in Maynooth, Fitzpatrick in North West Kildare and in Celbridge - just him. If only there was a FF candidate based in Celbridge he could have had a photo taken with. Bloody children the two of them.

On the plus side with this crap going on between them it's very possible that they'll split the vote and neither get in. That would be a win in itself.