Aviation weather thread

JCX BXC

Outlook of conditions for tomorrow at Irish Airports, main points only.

Dublin Airport

4am-6am 290 degrees (WNW) 35kts G 50kts
6am-8am 300 degrees (WNW) 30kts G 45kts
8am-10am 300 degrees (WNW) 25kts G 40kts

Wind direction tomorrow is fairly ideal for RWY 28 (which faces 280 degrees, hence the name RWY28) and the main wind strikes just before the morning rush hour. I foresee no disruption from this forecast.

Shannon Airport

11pm-1am 230 degrees (SW) 25kts G 37kts
1am-3am 280 degrees (W) 32kts G 46kts
3am-5am 300 degrees (WNW) 27kts G 43kts
8am-10am 300 degrees (WNW) 24kts G 38kts
2pm-4pm 300 degrees (WNW) 20kts G 33kts

Wind direction is a fairly unfavourable for RWY24, so some issues may be possible early in the morning for the transatlantic arrivals and potentially early into the afternoon in the stronger gusts and if the runway is wet, Shannon is quiet enough at this time of the year

I don't see any issues at Cork, Knock, Belfast or Kerry tomorrow, although it's worth a mention that RWY35 may be in use at BFS tomorrow which I've never actually seen used.

Nibs05

Bare in mind that at 50+kts ground operations will cease, there is a chart on the wall in work going through the different levels of severity, 50+ is the limit which is deemed unsafe for personal to work on the ramp, air bridges are retracted and aircraft storm chocked.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest aviation warnings:

EISN PR WRNG 01 VALID 222100/230300 EISN SURFACE PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE VALUES 997HPA AND 981HPA IN THE SHANNON FIR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD N OF N5425 AND E OF W00930=

EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 230230/231000 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2303/2306 W 35-40 MAX 50-55 BECMG 2306/2309 NW 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST =

EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 230100/231000 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2301/2304 W 25-30 MAX 40-45 BECMG 2304/2306 NW 20-25 MAX 35-40 FCST =

EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 230030/230800 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2301/2303 W 30-35 MAX 45-50 BECMG 2303/2305 NW 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST =

EIKN AD WRNG 01 VALID 230000/230800 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2301/2303 NW 25-30 MAX 40-45 BECMG 2303/2305 NW 20-25 MAX 35-40 FCST =

EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 230000/231000 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2302/2305 W 35-40 MAX 50-55 BECMG 2306/2308 WNW 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST

JCX BXC

11pm TAF
Dublin Airport

3am-5am 290 degrees (WNW) 35kts G 50kts
7am-9am 290 degrees (WNW) 30kts G 45kts
9am-12pm 300 degrees (WNW) 25kts G 40kts

The most severe wind strikes earlier, I again cant say I see any disruption.

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

11pm TAF
Dublin Airport

3am-5am 290 degrees (WNW) 35kts G 50kts
7am-9am 290 degrees (WNW) 30kts G 45kts
9am-12pm 300 degrees (WNW) 25kts G 40kts

The most severe wind strikes earlier, I again cant say I see any disruption.

No, BECMG 50 knots some time between 3 and 5 am, then staying at that until it starts to BECMG 45 knots from 7 to 9 am. So theoretically, we should see the strongest gusts defintely between 5-7 am but also possibly outside of that window too. Scores of flights in that period.

JCX BXC

We shall see.

Bsal

With such high wind speeds I would expect alot of aircraft's onboard predictive windshear systems going off on approach causing many go-arounds.

JCX BXC

Bsal wrote: »

With such high wind speeds I would expect alot of aircraft's onboard predictive windshear systems going off on approach causing many go-arounds.

It's relatively quiet in the morning in terms of arrivals

Irish Steve

I've been watching the information about this weather system develop in the weather forum, and the only thing we can say with any certainty is that tomorrow morning is going to be a lot wilder than people are used to, especially in the Dublin and East coast area, and with the very uncertain way that this is developing, it is almost impossible to give accurate predictions of what will happen hour by hour.

Due to the speed with which it is developing, there have been suggestions that the orange warning issued earlier may in fact prove to be not enough, while it's not upgraded yet to a red warning, there is the potential for gusts that would be in the order of speeds appropriate to a red warning, and if that sort of strength comes through the Dublin area, there will be a real potential for delays, for safety reasons.

Ground support equipment like stairs are very vulnerable to high winds, especially those used on the larger wide body aircraft, and I know from experience that cargo containers and the like can be very hard to manage on a high loader 20 Ft in the air, especially if there's not much weight in them.

So, I will be surprised if there are no delays or problems at the airport, even simple tasks like opening and closing the doors can be a challenge if the aircraft is on a remote stand and not protected from the winds by a jetway or terminal building.

Having said that, it's hard to believe that there will be such a dramatic change in the weather in such a relatively short time scale, I am sitting here typing this now, and there's very little indication that the winds are going to change so much in the next few hours, when I came in a few hours ago, it was almost flat calm here in Ashbourne, which would be unusual given how close we are to the Wicklow hills, which tend to modify the local winds quite significantly.

If it is going to be as rough as the more pessimistic forecasts are calling, care will most definitely be needed on the roads in the morning, especially in smaller and lighter vehicles on roads that run North South, like the N2 North of Ashbourne.

Gaoth Laidir

Irish Steve wrote: »

Having said that, it's hard to believe that there will be such a dramatic change in the weather in such a relatively short time scale, I am sitting here typing this now, and there's very little indication that the winds are going to change so much in the next few hours, when I came in a few hours ago, it was almost flat calm here in Ashbourne, which would be unusual given how close we are to the Wicklow hills, which tend to modify the local winds quite significantly.

Ain't no Wicklow Hills gonna protect Ashbourne tomorrow. It would be nice to be up at the windmill on the Hill of Garristown

marno21

26 gusting 41 knots from 260 degrees at Shannon at the minute as per Volmet.

JCX BXC

marno21 wrote: »

26 gusting 41 knots from 260 degrees at Shannon at the minute as per Volmet.

250 degrees 35kts G 50kts at 2:30am, higher than forecast.

AirBiscuit

Should make for some interesting times for my flight from Knock tomorrow, never flown out with a right hand crosswind on 26.

JCX BXC

AirBiscuit wrote: »

Should make for some interesting times for my flight from Knock tomorrow, never flown out with a right hand crosswind on 26.

Winds won't be too bad for Knock tomorrow, will probably still be bumpy!

JCX BXC

Gusting up to 53kts at Dublin atm.

JCX BXC

4:30am METAR

Dublin: 230 degrees 29kts G 53kts
Shannon 270 degrees 35kts G 54kts

I understand the gust at Dublin is now below 53kts.

JCX BXC

Dublin
Forecast 6am-6am 260 degrees (W) 35kts G 50kts
Prob 40% Tempo 6am-8am 270 degrees (W) 40kts G 60kts
Becoming 7am-9am 290 degrees (WNW) 30kts G 45kts

First wave of transatlantic arrivals have all landed without issue, despite winds of up to 53knots. Could be some disruption, but for a limited time.

Shannon

Forecast 6am-6am 280 degrees (W) 30kts G 48kts
Becoming 6am-8am 280 degrees (W) 25kts G 49kts

It's a bit touch and go for traffic before 8am

JCX BXC

Wind at Dublin currently 250 degrees 44kts G 61kts.

Well, looks a bit stronger than first expected!

JCX BXC

Hearing some Ryanair aircraft on the ground happy to board if the maximum gust is below 60 knots.

Captain_Crash

Watched 3 arrivals this morning when heading down the M50 to work. Two of them went around (FR & WX). It was hard to tell but it appeared there was a lot of aircraft holding short of the ramp, I don't know if it was due to early arrivals or a temp ground stop.

Gaoth Laidir

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Watched 3 arrivals this morning when heading down the M50 to work. Two of them went around (FR & WX). It was hard to tell but it appeared there was a lot of aircraft holding short of the ramp, I don't know if it was due to early arrivals or a temp ground stop.

The FedEx and Etihad went around, from those that I saw.

Pat Dunne

JCX BXC wrote: »

We shall see.

We saw!

JCX BXC

Looks fun for Dublin tomorrow!

Becoming 10am-12pm 200 degrees (SSW) 26kts G 45kts
Becoming 12pm-2pm 240 degress (SW) 30kts G 48kts

Interesting crosswinds Will likely see RWY16 in use!

Gaoth Laidir

Waterford airport TAF to 06Z.

TAF EIWF 252000Z 2521/2606 27006KT 9999 SCT018 BECMG 2602/2604 22020G33KT=

Bsal

Love this picture

Gaoth Laidir

Airport Warnings

EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 261000/261600 SFC WIND SSW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 BECMG 2612/2614 SW 25-30 MAX 45-50 FCST =
EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 261000/261600 SFC WIND SSW 20-25KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 2610/2612 SW 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST =
EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 260600/261600 SFC WIND SSW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 BECMG 2612/2614 SW 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST =
EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 260600/261600 SFC WIND SSW 25-30KT MAX 45-50 BECMG 2612/2615 SW 25-30 MAX 45-50 FCST =

Gaoth Laidir

Waterford TAF

TAF EIWF 260500Z 2606/2615 21023G35KT 9999 BKN015 BECMG 2606/2609 20028G42KT -RA BKN010 BECMG 2610/2612 20035G50KT TEMPO 2610/2613 4000 RA BKN005 BECMG 2614/2615 25022G36KT 9999 SCT018 BKN020=

The Met Éireann spot wind chart has 65 knots at 2000 ft in that area.

Casement TAF 20032G52KT this morning.

Gaoth Laidir

Strange only the regional TAFs (mostly coastal airports) have -SHSN in their TAFs while the larger ones have mixed precip.

TAF EIDL 270500Z 2706/2715 17014KT 9999 SCT020 TEMPO 2706/2710 1000 SHSN BKN004 BKN016CB TEMPO 2710/2715 4000 SHRASN BKN010 BKN020CB=

TAF EIKY 270500Z 2706/2715 20009KT 9999 SCT030 TEMPO 2706/2710 3000 -SHSN BKN008 BKN016CB TEMPO 2710/2715 4000 SHRASN BKN010 BKN020CB=

TAF EISG 270500Z 2706/2715 17009KT 9999 SCT020 TEMPO 2706/2710 1200 SHSN BKN004 BKN016CB TEMPO 2710/2715 4000 SHRASN BKN010 BKN020CB=

TAF EIWF 270500Z 2706/2715 24009KT 9999 SCT020 TEMPO 2706/2709 1800 -SHSN BKN008 BKN018CB TEMPO 2708/2715 4000 SHRASN BKN010 BKN020CB =

ED E

For a pleb who can't interpret TAFs, Met have a yellow in effect until 0900 tomorrow, likely to impact departures at DUB?

JCX BXC

ED E wrote: »

For a pleb who can't interpret TAFs, Met have a yellow in effect until 0900 tomorrow, likely to impact departures at DUB?

Gusts won't be in excess of 30knots tomorrow morning, there will be no weather related issues.