Aviation weather thread

JCX BXC

Nice to see you back Gaoth Laidir.

According to M.T Cranium, this could well be a snowy winter (the first half)

If this comes to be true, it'll be interesting to see how Irish airports cope.

Gaoth Laidir

Look at this TAF for Bermuda Intl as Hurricane Nicole will deal a direct hit strike later today! It us be the longest one I've ever seen, and look at the bit in bold! (BLPY = Blowing sPraY, but it could also mean blowing CanoPY, blowing PYlons, etc. 😅 )

TAF:
TAF TXKF 122336Z 1300/1324 09025KT 9999 VCSH SCT008 BKN015
TEMPO 1300/1306 3200 SHRA BKN008CB OVC010
PROB40 TEMPO 1300/1306 VRB35G45KT 1600 TSRA OVC005CB
BECMG 1306/1309 12035KT 4800 SHRA SCT005 OVC012
TEMPO 1306/1312 VRB45G60KT 1600 +TSRA BKN005CB OVC012
BECMG 1309/1312 12055KT 3200 SHRA BLPY BKN005CB OVC010
TEMPO 1312/1315 1600 +SHRA BLPY SCT003 OVC005CB
PROB40 TEMPO 1312/1315 VRB60G75KT 0800 +TSRA BLPY OVC003CB
BECMG 1312/1315 12070KT 1600 +SHRA BLPY SCT003 OVC005CB
TEMPO 1315/1318 12075G95KT 0800 +TSRA BLPY SCT002 OVC004CB
PROB40 TEMPO 1315/1318 VRB90GP99KT 0100 +TSRA BLPY OVC001CB
BECMG 1315/1318 30060G75KT 4800 SHRA BLPY SCT005 BKN010CB
BECMG 1321/1324 30040G55KT 9999 VCSH SCT008 BKN012

JCX BXC

Variable 90kts G99kts, heavy thunderstorm rain, blowing spray, 100m visibility, overcast CB's at 100ft, is a worst forecast possible?

Gaoth Laidir

An automatic weather station on Pearl Island, in a bay on the western side of Bermuda, recorded 2-minute sustained winds of 76 knots and a gust of 103 knots.



Meanwhile the airport ONLY measured 67 gust 90 kts.

METAR TXKF 131355Z 08067G90KT 0300 R12/0275N R30/0375N +SHRA OVC005CB 24/24 Q0970 RMK CB 10KM E MOV NE PRESFR=

JCX BXC

What are the intensities of precipitation required for differentiating light, moderate and heavy?

Bsal

JCX BXC wrote: »

What are the intensities of precipitation required for differentiating light, moderate and heavy?

Gaoth Laidir

Dublin is mentioned on Eurocontrol's daily weather assessment this morning. I can't see much disruption occuring myself. Dublin should be able for a cm of snow.

Gaoth Laidir

TAF EIDW 120500Z 1206/1306 25015KT 9999 SCT020 BKN040 TEMPO 1206/1215 27017G28KT TEMPO 1208/1212 5000 -SHRASN BKN010 PROB40 TEMPO 1212/1218 5000 -SHRASNGS SCT020CB PROB30 TEMPO 1215/1218 2000 -SHSN BKN008 BECMG 1216/1218 26018G32KT TEMPO 1218/1222 2000 -SHSN BKN007 BKN017CB BECMG 1219/1221 32023G38KT BECMG 1222/1224 32020G32KT BECMG 1301/1303 30017KT PROB30 TEMPO 1303/1305 3000 -SHSN BKN007=

(SHANNON) TAF EINN 120500Z 1206/1306 26014KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 TEMPO 1206/1215 29017G28KT 3000 -SHRASNGS BKN012 BKN018CB PROB40 TEMPO 1212/1215 1500 -SHSNGS BKN007 BECMG 1215/1218 29020G32KT TEMPO 1215/1221 1200 -SHSNGS BKN005 BKN017CB BECMG 1219/1221 32018G32KT BECMG 1222/1224 32012KT=

(CORK) TAF EICK 120500Z 1206/1306 26010KT 9999 SCT012 BKN020 TEMPO 1206/1209 5000 -RA BKN008 PROB30 TEMPO 1206/1209 3000 RASN BKN005 BECMG 1206/1209 29015KT TEMPO 1209/1221 31017G28KT 3000 -SHRASNGS BKN007 SCT016CB TEMPO 1215/1222 1500 -SHSN BKN004 BECMG 1222/1224 34015KT BECMG 1301/1303 31012KT=

(CONNAUGHT) TAF EIKN 120500Z 1206/1306 27015KT 9999 SCT015 BKN020 TEMPO 1206/1213 28016G27KT TEMPO 1206/1222 2000 -SHSNGS BKN006 BKN016CB BECMG 1214/1216 27020G32KT PROB40 TEMPO 1216/1222 1000 SHSN BKN002 BECMG 1217/1219 32022G38KT BECMG 1219/1222 32016G27KT BECMG 1301/1303 31012KT PROB30 TEMPO 1301/1304 2000 -SHSN BKN006=

(BELFAST/ ALDERGROVE) TAF EGAA 120504Z 1206/1306 26012KT 9999 SCT030 PROB40 TEMPO 1206/1306 27017G27KT 1200 SHSN BKN006 BKN012CB PROB30 TEMPO 1209/1224 0300 +SHSN TSSN VV///=

(DONEGAL) TAF EIDL 120500Z 1206/1215 27018KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 TEMPO 1206/1212 30025G45KT TEMPO 1206/1215 5000 SHRASNGS BKN010 BKN017CB PROB30 TEMPO 1209/1215 2000 TSGS BKN005 BKN010CB BECMG 1213/1215 26025G38KT TEMPO 1214/1215 29030G45KT=

(KERRY (FARRANFORE)) TAF EIKY 120500Z 1206/1215 28015KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 TEMPO 1206/1210 3000 -SHRASNGS BKN010 BKN018CB TEMPO 1206/1215 29020G32KT TEMPO 1210/1215 1500 -SHSNGS BKN007 BKN017CB=

(SLIGO) TAF EISG 120500Z 1206/1215 26016KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 TEMPO 1206/1212 27020G32KT TEMPO 1206/1215 5000 SHRASNGS BKN010 BKN017CB PROB30 TEMPO 1209/1215 2000 TSGS BKN005 BKN010CB BECMG 1213/1215 26020G33KT TEMPO 1214/1215 27026G40KT=

(WATERFORD) TAF EIWF 120500Z 1206/1215 27012KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 PROB30 TEMPO 1209/1212 4000 -SHRASN BKN012 BECMG 1210/1212 30015KT TEMPO 1213/1215 30017G28KT=

(CASEMENT (BALDONNEL) (MIL)) TAF EIME 120500Z 1206/1215 25015KT 9999 FEW015 BKN025 TEMPO 1206/1215 27016G27KT TEMPO 1206/1208 4000 -SHRASN BKN008 TEMPO 1209/1211 2000 -SHSN BKN008 SCT017CB PROB40 TEMPO 1212/1215 2000 -SHSNGS BKN008 SCT020CB=

(BELFAST/ CITY) TAF EGAC 120654Z 1207/1215 26015KT 9999 FEW020 SCT030 PROB30 TEMPO 1207/1215 25017G27KT 2000 SHSN BKN007 BKN014CB=

(CITY OF DERRY AIRPORT/ EGLINTON) TAF EGAE 120654Z 1207/1215 24013KT 9999 FEW020 SCT030 PROB40 TEMPO 1207/1215 25017G27KT 2000 SHSN BKN006 BKN012CB PROB30 TEMPO 1207/1215 0300 +SHSN TSSN VV///=

(VALLEY) TAF EGOV 120443Z 1206/1215 25015G25KT 9999 FEW020 BKN045 TEMPO 1206/1210 7000 SHRA SCT020 PROB30 TEMPO 1210/1215 SCT030CB=

Gaoth Laidir

Updated short TAFs

(DONEGAL) TAF EIDL 120800Z 1209/1218 27018KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 TEMPO 1209/1212 30025G45KT TEMPO 1209/1218 5000 SHRASNGS BKN010 BKN017CB PROB30 TEMPO 1209/1218 2000 TSGS BKN005 BKN010CB BECMG 1213/1215 26025G38KT TEMPO 1214/1215 29030G45KT BECMG 1215/1217 34025G40KT TEMPO 1217/1218 35033G50KT=

(KERRY (FARRANFORE)) TAF EIKY 120800Z 1209/1218 28015KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 TEMPO 1209/1210 3000 -SHRASNGS BKN010 BKN018CB TEMPO 1209/1215 29020G32KT TEMPO 1210/1218 1500 -SHSNGS BKN006 BKN017CB BECMG 1216/1218 29020G38KT=

(SLIGO) TAF EISG 120800Z 1209/1218 26016KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 TEMPO 1209/1212 27020G32KT TEMPO 1209/1215 5000 SHRASNGS BKN010 BKN017CB PROB30 TEMPO 1209/1218 2000 TSGS BKN005 BKN010CB BECMG 1213/1215 26020G33KT TEMPO 1214/1215 27026G40KT BECMG 1215/1217 31025G38KT TEMPO 1216/1218 34030G42KT=

(WATERFORD) TAF EIWF 120800Z 1209/1218 27012KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 PROB30 TEMPO 1209/1212 4000 -SHRASN BKN012 BECMG 1210/1212 30015KT TEMPO 1213/1218 30017G28KT TEMPO 1217/1218 3000 -SHSN BKN008 SCT018CB=

(CASEMENT (BALDONNEL) (MIL)) TAF EIME 120800Z 1209/1218 25015KT 9999 FEW015 BKN025 TEMPO 1209/1215 28016G27KT TEMPO 1209/1211 2000 -SHSN BKN008 SCT017CB PROB40 TEMPO 1212/1216 2000 -SHSNGS BKN008 SCT020CB BECMG 1216/1218 26018G32KT TEMPO 1217/1218 2000 -SHSN BKN007 BKN017CB=

(BELFAST/ CITY) TAF EGAC 120654Z 1207/1215 26015KT 9999 FEW020 SCT030 PROB30 TEMPO 1207/1215 25017G27KT 2000 SHSN BKN007 BKN014CB=

(CITY OF DERRY AIRPORT/ EGLINTON) TAF EGAE 120654Z 1207/1215 24013KT 9999 FEW020 SCT030 PROB40 TEMPO 1207/1215 25017G27KT 2000 SHSN BKN006 BKN012CB PROB30 TEMPO 1207/1215 0300 +SHSN TSSN VV///=

(VALLEY) TAF EGOV 120754Z 1209/1218 26015G25KT 9999 FEW020 BKN045 PROB30 TEMPO 1209/1210 7000 SHRA SCT020 PROB30 TEMPO 1210/1214 SCT030CB TEMPO 1214/1218 7000 SHRA SCT030CB=

billie1b

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Dublin should be able for a cm of snow.

Thats what you'd think!!
I've seen a cm of snow turn DUB into chaos of major delays and cancellations

Pat Dunne

billie1b wrote: »

Thats what you'd think!!
I've seen a cm of snow turn DUB into chaos of major delays and cancellations

So what you're saying is that less than half an inch of snow in DUB causes chaos?

billie1b

Pat Dunne wrote: »

So what you're saying is that less than half an inch of snow in DUB causes chaos?

Yeah and i've been there on numerous occasions to witness it as i'm sure a few others here have too. Hopefully they'll have learned from their mistakes in the past

Pat Dunne

billie1b wrote: »

Yeah and i've been there on numerous occasions to witness it as i'm sure a few others here have too. Hopefully they'll have learned from their mistakes in the past

I apologise if I sound sceptical, however I would be completely amazed that less than half an inch of snow, which is barely noticeable under foot could cause so much chaos at DUB.

Locker10a

Pat Dunne wrote: »

billie1b wrote: »

Yeah and i've been there on numerous occasions to witness it as i'm sure a few others here have too. Hopefully they'll have learned from their mistakes in the past

I apologise if I sound sceptical, however I would be completely amazed that less than half an inch of snow, which is barely noticeable under foot could cause so much chaos at DUB.

A similar amount fell at gatwick, there were several flights with 4 hour delays as a result. 
Madness I here you say? Well... its not really, an airport like Dublin, or Gatwick are never as prepared for these conditions, for example, de-icing trucks, there are never enough to go around at Gatwick, and so the que for this alone could be 2 hours! Add into this that the runway in gatwick is the busiest in the world, it needs to have snow or ice clear off it, the time that this take could have eaten up 10\12 take offs or landings, that mean there are an additional 10+ flights that need to use the same runway in a much shorter space of time! It simply won't happen, hence delays! 
You can apply the same logic on a lesser scale to Dublin airport.
Now, the next question is, well why aren't they prepared better, and the answer is simple, cost!!
The cost of having a full fleet and fully crewed ice/snow clearing team and de-icing rigs on standby all winter is something airlines are simply not will to pay for, as the chances are they might only be required once every 5 years! They'd rather take the risk of fairly mild winters and count their pennies.

Irish Steve

The fundamental problem with snow in this part of the world is that it cannot be relied on to be easy to clear, if it's dry powder snow, then getting rid of it is very easy, if it's wet snow that packs into a sheet of ice it is very hard to remove, and also needs a lot more machines and operators to do it, and unfortunately, the climate here means that we get wet snow more often than not.

Historically, Dublin was very poor at snow management, I can still remember a day when I got to the airport by road for an early flight to Dusseldorf, but due to some very inept management at the airport, nothing got in or out of the airport that morning, and eventually, at around 1400, the flight was cancelled, so we could all legitimately go home and get a full refund, which we did, and the road journey happened without much trouble, as the roads were still not a problem. The problem at the airport was that the relevant managers had not made sure they had snow clearing staff on standby, so by the time they had people to operate the relevant machines, they were unable to get on top of the problems caused by the delay. That was a good few years ago, I think (hope) things are better organised now, and they have more machinery that is suitable for dealing with whatever the elements throw at us, though I seem to recall that the "Isle of Man" snow shadow did cause more than a few problems a few years ago, as it caused significant streamers to dump regular snow on the airport area for several days.

This time round, I think they've been lucky, it didn't amount to much, so there wasn't the same degree of problems that have happened in previous years.

ED E

0500hrs, 0*C on the dot and they're still de-icing the FR fleet at the 1xx gates. What's the threshold temp out of curiosity?

Gaoth Laidir

ED E wrote: »

0500hrs, 0*C on the dot and they're still de-icing the FR fleet at the 1xx gates. What's the threshold temp out of curiosity?

The air temperature was zero but the aircraft temperature will have been several degrees lower as skies were clear and dewpoint was -2 °C. Just like your car will have frost on it even if the air is >0 °C.

I'm not sure what the threshold conditions are for de-icing bit I'd imagine it's not as clear cut as just air temperature. A visual check of flight surfaces is probably as good as anything.

Bussywussy

Think EI De-ice once the met issues a frost warning or temp drops below 3

JCX BXC

I heard aircraft needing to de ice at +2c yesterday.

Captain_Crash

Not specifically de-icing, but its common for Anti-Ice to be on when its 10c or cooler and there is visible moisture in the air, so I'm sure the relative humidity plays a part in the decision to de-ice.

Gaoth Laidir

We might get to try out the new snow trucks at DUB over the weekend. Activity should be greatest Saturday as winds turn northeasterly and increase the sea fetch for shower-generation. All depends on whether the Isle of Man shadow comes into play like in 2010.

duskyjoe

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

. All depends on whether the Isle of Man shadow comes into play like in 2010.

Don't understand ? Surely the Isle of Man has no impact on our weather here on the east coat of Ireland?

Gaoth Laidir

duskyjoe wrote: »

Don't understand ? Surely the Isle of Man has no impact on our weather here on the east coat of Ireland?

In an unstable easterly or northeasterly airflow over the Irish Sea, the length of the path over he water (fetch) affects the development of showers. The longer the fetch the more the development.

The Isle of Man can effectively reduce this fetch and limit development, which is what happened in 2010. Either side of the "shadow" streamers of showers develop but in the shadow the showers are limited.

Gaoth Laidir

Looks like morning rush hour wind disruption possible in Dublin on Thursday morning...






...spreading through England during the morning and afternoon...

JCX BXC

From the north west? Should cause no issues.

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

From the north west? Should cause no issues.

Still a crosswind on R28 (gusts will more likely be northerly) but windshear is probably the biggest issue.

JCX BXC

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

(gusts will more likely be northerly)

What do you mean by this?

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

What do you mean by this?

In general, friction in the surface layer slows down the mean wind and causes its direction to back relative to the isobars. Gusts, which originate at higher levels (less affected by friction), come from a direction more aligned with the isobars (i.e. wind veers with height). This means that a mean surface wind from say 310 ° will have gusts from a more veering direction (by a few tens of degrees, depending, so nearer to 340-360 °).

Individual gusts may not greatly affect the reported wind direction (as by definition they are only short-lived), but they will affect things for a pilot on short finals. That's why in strong winds, given a choice, a pilot should try to choose a runway that has the mean wind coming from his/her left so that the gusts will be more aligned down the runway.

TPMP

I'm flying into Shannon this evening around 9 o'clock. Am I to expect a bumpy approach with this storm that's coming?

JCX BXC

TPMP wrote: »

I'm flying into Shannon this evening around 9 o'clock. Am I to expect a bumpy approach with this storm that's coming?

You'll be fine, wind will be southwesterly and only 20kts gusting 32kts, normal wind.