Kerry candidates in GE 2016

An Ciarraioch

So, as of today, the complete list of candidates stands as:

**FF:** John Brassil

Norma Moriarty

**FG:** Jimmy Deenihan

Brendan Griffin

Grace O'Donnell

**Labour:** Arthur Spring

**Sinn Féin:** Martin Ferris

**Independent:** Michael Healy-Rae

Tom Fleming (Ind Alliance)

Michael O'Gorman

Henry Gaynor

Kevin Murphy

**AAA-PBP:** Brian Finucane

**Green:** Michael Fitzgerald

**Renua:** Donal Corcoran

So, only the Social Democrats are not fielding a candidate, and Michael Gleeson's intentions have yet to be officially declared. As of now, Deenihan, Ferris and Healy-Rae appear safe, Brassil should have a quota for FF, and I predict Fleming will edge out Griffin for the final seat.

lottpaul

Thanks for that. Has been difficult to keep track of them all as the different announcements are made. I wonder about the FF vote - they have 2 candidates - one very new to politics - whose bases are both in small towns. Will they both canvass all over the place or divide the county up?
And for all candidates there's the question of whether votes will transfer within parties or will they stay local? Am not sure how many of e.g. Norma Moriarty's votes would travel to Brassil (or vice versa). Would they go to MHR, Michael Gleeson (he'll surely run?) or someone closer to home? The North/South divide may linger on for a while.
Am inclined to agree that Deenihan, Ferris and Healy Rae are safe, but would say that Fleming and Griffin will both give FF a run for the last 2 seats. All will come down to transfers from Spring, O'Donnell etc - or a possible surplus from Ferris or MHR.

cyning

Norma Moriarty was added for the gender quota and to have a South Kerry candidate for Fianna Fáil: I would imagine there would be a decent enough vote transfer between the two. I also think a lot of FF suporters are more likely to vote for John Brassil then McEllistrim. I also think this will hurt Tom Fleming as I think that's where a lot of disenfranchised FF voters turned their votes too in South Kerry last time round.

I hadn't realised Grace O Donnell had been added: again for the gender quota I would imagine.

Who is Henry Gaynor? Not aware of him at all.

Also I really wouldn't discount Brendan Griffin. Jimmy Deenihan pulls a massive vote and surely his surplus will transfer either to Griffin for FG, or Brassil as they are both North Kerry candidates? He's also going to attract the more conservative youth vote and he will get votes for employing a teacher out of his Dail salary for the last few years.

I'm really looking forward to the next few months

carchaeologist

Healy Rae will run away with it. I'm very sure of that.

BPKS

carchaeologist wrote: »

Healy Rae will run away with it. I'm very sure of that.

Which will prove once and for all that all those Kerryman jokes were spot fecking on. :mad:

Boom__Boom

Current odds from PaddyPower for Kerry Constituency

Jimmy Deenihan (Fine Gael) 1/33
Martin Ferris (Sinn Fein) 1/20
Michael Healy-Rae (Ind) 1/12
John Brassil (Fianna Fail) 2/7
Brendan Griffin (Fine Gael) 4/6
Tom Fleming (Ind) 5/6
Arthur Spring (Labour) 5/4
Norma Moriarty (Fianna Fail) 9/2
Brian Finucane (AAA-PBP) 25/1
Michael O'Gorman (Ind) 33/1
Kevin Murphy (Ind) 33/1
Grace O'Donnell (Fine Gael) 33/1

An Ciarraioch

It seems Michael Gleeson will decide tonight whether to run. In truth, it would be a major surprise if he didn't - he'd certainly be one of the stronger centre-left candidates, and his length of service on the Council gives him a county-wide profile, even if Killarney would provide the great bulk of his support.

lottpaul

I see Michael Gleeson has decided not to be a candidate.
A big surprise because I thought I heard an interview a few days ago where he said he would be interested in running but would decide after he spoke to others in the SKIA.
However there is now a bundle of several thousand south Kerry voters who will be looking around and considering their options. I'd imagine MHR, Brendan Griffin and Tom Fleming will be very interested.

An Ciarraioch

lottpaul wrote: »

I see Michael Gleeson has decided not to be a candidate.
A big surprise because I thought I heard an interview a few days ago where he said he would be interested in running but would decide after he spoke to others in the SKIA.
However there is now a bundle of several thousand south Kerry voters who will be looking around and considering their options. I'd imagine MHR, Brendan Griffin and Tom Fleming will be very interested.

All of them are relatively near Killarney, but you'd imagine the independents would reap the most rewards.

While Deenihan has had a surplus in North Kerry before when elected on the first count, doubt he'll make it on the first count now given the massively increased quota. So he won't have so many to distribute.

It'll be Healy Rae topping the poll, then Deenihan, Ferris, and then a bit of a fight. Brassil may be strongest...but that would mean 3 from North of Tralee so he may get squeezed. Griffin will drop in support, he was unknown the last time and used social media well, he may be geographically isolated in the larger constituency, but see him and Fleming battling it out. Don't think Michael Cahill in the Fleming camp, which would be a blow to him.

lottpaul

I don't know about MHR topping the poll. Assuming a turnout similar to the last election - 44,000 in KyS and 40,000 from the Kerry part of KyN - 84,000 gives a quota of about 14,000. In the last election MHR got 6670, and in the elections before his father got 5,993, 6229 and 7,220. That's a long way off a quota. I still think he'll be elected but am not sure if anyone will exceed the quota on the first count. As always, preferences will decide.

Radio5

With Ml Gleeson not running, there is no mainstream candidate from Killarney town, which is strange in itself. A huge number of town voters to be wooed then. Every vote is significant in the new set up. I'm sure the North v South line will be spun by some candidates in an effort to ensure there isn't lopsided representation of the county.

Boom__Boom

Radio5 wrote: »

With Ml Gleeson not running, there is no mainstream candidate from Killarney town, which is strange in itself. A huge number of town voters to be wooed then. Every vote is significant in the new set up. I'm sure the North v South line will be spun by some candidates in an effort to ensure there isn't lopsided representation of the county.

I could see Gleeson's votes going all over the place.

Obviously the geographic factor will be huge but he had a fair chunk of a personal vote which could go across the spectrum.

It would be interesting to hear Arthur Spring's thoughts on the fact Gleeson isn't running and whether they'd be hopeful of him picking up any of them for ideological reasons.

With Gleeson not running Labour are probably thinking they made a mistake not running Moloney in Killarney. You'd imagine her transfers would have given Spring a much better chance of getting home.

claddino

Id say Martin Ferris will surely top the poll. He got 9,282 in the last election, Sinn Fein's vote is up a lot since then and he will also get a few votes from the south. If the quota is around 14000 I would be amazed if he didnt get elected on the first count

The Sidewards Man

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

and I predict Fleming will edge out Griffin for the final seat.

He will in his hole.

cyning

Sinn Fein don't really have a vote in South Kerry though so they? So that may stop Ferris topping the poll. I'd actually love to know what canvassing Jimmy Deenihan is doing: I haven't seen him do anything or heard of him doing anything and I'm in Listowel!

I really think Fleming and Spring will lose their seats. Fleming probably at the expense of Brassil.

Boom__Boom

cyning wrote: »

Sinn Fein don't really have a vote in South Kerry though so they? So that may stop Ferris topping the poll. I'd actually love to know what canvassing Jimmy Deenihan is doing: I haven't seen him do anything or heard of him doing anything and I'm in Listowel!

I really think Fleming and Spring will lose their seats. Fleming probably at the expense of Brassil.

I heard a rumour that Deenihan is a possible candidate for the Ceann Comhairle job (the current one is retiring) The main perk of that job is that you get automatically returned to the Dail. Would tie in with the lack of canvassing.

Sinn Fein's vote in Kerry South will be interesting to see - They had no candidate in Kerry South the last time out and prior to that in 2007 their candidate got 1735 first preferences with a Dublin candidate who was fairly weak. I think McGuinness did reasonable in the presidential campaign in Kerry South but I'd imagine that a key factor there was the makeup of the candidates. Sinn Fein did get a councillor elected last time out in the Kerry south area - some lad from Tyrone with about a thousand votes. Historically in the last while Sinn Fein have had no organisation setup in Kerry South. I'd say Sinn Fein could run a cabbage and would get 1500 votes out of what was Kerry South without blinking. However long-term pushing it up over into the sort of territory where they might get to a stage where they could even consider getting 2 candidates elected in the Kerry constituency will be a major issue as the Healy-Rae organisation have the anti-government, sorting out pot holes and medical cards fairly tightly locked up for the forseeable future. It's probably not something that they are too concerned with as the Ferris daughter will be be in a very comfy position taking over from daddy down the line.

Henwin

I reckon Ferris, Healy rae, deenihan, Griffen and Brassil to get elected,
So which candidates have canvessed your door so far

Radio5

Wouldn't Jimmy Deenihan not have to get re-elected this time to be eligible to be nominated as Ceann Comhairle? I think it's only when you're already the Ceann Comhairle that you get automatically re-elected at any subsequent election?

lottpaul

Radio5 wrote: »

Wouldn't Jimmy Deenihan not have to get re-elected this time to be eligible to be nominated as Ceann Comhairle? I think it's only when you're already the Ceann Comhairle that you get automatically re-elected at any subsequent election?

Yes. The current Ceann Comhairle, Sean Barrett, will be returned automatically. (Unless he resigns in the next 2 weeks and a replacement is elected by the current Dáil - very unlikely I'd say)

cyning

Yes so that won't be a factor this time round.... And while Deenihan is very loyal to Kenny and has been a minister and junior minister I just cannot see him being Ceann Comhairle. At all. Couldn't imagine him kicking anyone out of the Dail!

I've only had Brassil himself to the door. But we've had teams of people from Healy Rae and Ferris. Also had a leaflet shoved through the door from Pixie O Gorman. I was in the house at the time so just seems to have been a leaflet drop. I'm in Listowel so as I said its very strange to have had no one from FG at this point.

It's very telling no one seems to think Spring has a hope of keeping a seat!

Boom__Boom

lottpaul wrote: »

Yes. The current Ceann Comhairle, Sean Barrett, will be returned automatically. (Unless he resigns in the next 2 weeks and a replacement is elected by the current Dáil - very unlikely I'd say)

The rumour is that Barrett is going to resign before this election and Deenihan will be Kenny's preferred candidate to replace him. Barrett is almost 72 so wouldn't be massively unexpected for him to not fancy another 5 years. Deenihan is almost a decade younger than Barrett and I could see it as a job he could well be interested in.

As I said it's only a rumour but when cyning was saying that Deenihan has been very low profile around Listowel it would seem to fit the rumour.

lottpaul

Boom__Boom wrote: »

The rumour is that Barrett is going to resign before this election and Deenihan will be Kenny's preferred candidate to replace him.

If this turned out to be true the quota for a 4 seat Kerry would jump to about 17,000! All bets would be off re who'd be elected.
But we'd prob be better to wait and see instead of speculating about what might never happen.

An Ciarraioch

Newstalk Lunchtime hosting a live Kerry debate in 15 minutes - will all 15 candidates be in attendance?

lottpaul

Listened to some of the debate/interview and was underwhelmed to say the least. Deenihan, Spring, Moriarty, Healy Rae, Ferris, Quilligan (Travellers Rights organisation) and one or 2 more - sorry I cant remember them all. Abortion and post offices were the topics I heard most of but there could have been more before that. Predictable stances from everyone on the post offices. Norma Moriarty would be in favour of repealing the 8th Amendment, MHR would not be, ever - but got stumped when he said that there are procedures in place to deal with pregnancies arising from rape and those where there is a fatal foetal abnormality and the interviewer said "You mean, go to England" ! Arthur would support party policy but is more conservative, Martin would follow party policy but hinted at conservatism too etc etc and Jimmy wants to say nothing until theres another constitutional convention ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Maybe there will be longer and more informative chats on Radio Kerry in the coming weeks but I was reminded why I like elections but am not a great fan of politics!

As a parting shot Jimmy thinks Brendan will be re-elected with no problems in south Kerry... Probably means he's in real trouble

cyning

I missed it... Hopefully there's more on over the next few weeks!

Radio5

Radio5 wrote: »

With Ml Gleeson not running, there is no mainstream candidate from Killarney town, which is strange in itself. A huge number of town voters to be wooed then. Every vote is significant in the new set up. I'm sure the North v South line will be spun by some candidates in an effort to ensure there isn't lopsided representation of the county.

Fleming and Healy Rae will probably be camped in Killarney hoping that, as the nearest candidates, they will benefit most from the vacuum.

manoverboards

A Healy-Rae car was parked on double yellows this evening, I presume my vote for him will tackle the issue of flagrant abuse of the road traffic act !

MaryAntoinette

manoverboards wrote: »

A Healy-Rae car was parked on double yellows this evening, I presume my vote for him will tackle the issue of flagrant abuse of the road traffic act !

And you never would do the same :rolleyes:

Boom__Boom

Deleted User wrote: »

Fleming and Healy Rae will probably be camped in Killarney hoping that, as the nearest candidates, they will benefit most from the vacuum.

For all the candidates there's very little in the way of new votes for them in the areas of the constituency where they were competing previously. Similarly you are unlikely to get all that many people who haven't given you a vote before to give you a vote in your 3rd/4rd run in a place.

However that's a whole new pool of voters in those "new" parts of the combined constituency who've never had the chance to give you a vote before so it's worth focusing on them.

lazybones32

I don't think there'll be too much of a change this time around but the Killarney slice of pie needs to be claimed, so I guess that falls into the realm of a select few. I can't see SF being received well in Killarney, seeing as the Party seems to want to take money from the wealthy.

I have had no canvassers - thank God - and am putting up a sign to tell them it's not welcome.

I hope Tom Fleming and the young FG lad from Castlemaine aren't re-elected. Fleming was here years ago and hasn't delivered on a single issue that he said he was going to work on. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice... I think he is the TD who has asked the most questions in the Dail - I read that a year or two ago on the Kildare St. website; very interesting for those interested in that sort of thing.
Young FG: I didn't trust him from the beginning but the stunt with the Teacher's salary will probably get him re-elected: he's even taken to advertising what he did for her in one of the free local magazines...but conveniently forgot to mention that he gave his wife a 40k job that still sees their household bring in 8k more than if he kept his full wage (never mind the +20k expenses that don't have to be explained - but that goes for most of them)