Kerry candidates in GE 2016

Kerrydude1981

Joan Burton is in Tralee today,

I hope she brings her magic wand

Or is she down here to find Arthur Spring?

Boom__Boom

TG4 MRBI poll

https://twitter.com/Buailtin/status/699644435416662016

An Ciarraioch

Broken down as:

MHR 33%
Deenihan 13%
Griffin 13%
Brassil 11%
Spring 8%
Ferris 7%
Moriarty 5%
DHR 4%
All others 1% each.

cyning

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Broken down as:

MHR 33%
Deenihan 13%
Griffin 13%
Brassil 11%
Spring 8%
Ferris 7%
Moriarty 5%
DHR 4%
All others 1% each.

I'd wonder at a poll that had Ferris losing a seat going by first preferences. Also surprised at Norma Moriarty on 5%. It just doesn't seem very accurate....

lottpaul

Amazing set of figures really. With a quota of approx 16% the Healy Raes have 2 safe seats in MHRs vote alone but he may be too far ahead of DHR and the transfers may not work. I expect they will be telling their loyalists to vote Danny number 1 and hope that Michael will pick up enough number 1s in other areas (which he clearly is doing so far)
FG has 2 seats according to this. At 13% each they will sit just below the quota while everyone below them is eliminated and pick up enough transfers to keep ahead of the pack. Eventually it may be AJ Springs elimination that might elect the 2 of them.
FF has a seat unless Moriartys votes scatter all over the place and even if they wander a bit Brassil is surrounded by N Kerry candidates who will probably transfer enough to him to stay in the race.
If Spring managed to keep ahead of Ferris and Ferris was eliminated first you'd never know what might happen. ideologically SF and Lab would be must closer than to DHR (I have no idea what his policies are tbh) but if it's a "plumper" or protest vote then DHR is safe.
SF must be in a panic. To be placed behind Labour on first preferences would be amazing! It's difficult to see it. If the MHR surplus transfers 60% or more to DHR then its all over for Ferris but if it's 50% or less he's in with a chance. There are no S Kerry candidates remaining for DHR but Ferris has several he could look to -- AAA perhaps?
The figures might not be proven right on the day but there's a lot at stake for all parties.

Kerrydude1981

http://traleetoday.ie/healy-raes-issue-colour-coded-instructions-on-which-one-to-voter-for-and-where/

RevBlueJeans

I love general election count day and often attend the count centre. Unfortunately the " Aura" in Killarney is a bit far away. What Twitter hashtag is best to follow the Kerry count? Last time #kys & #kyn were used. Unfortunately #killyourself was trending in the US at the time causing a lot of noise. Secretary of State Kerry in the US can also trend from time to time. Any ideas?

Stinicker

RevBlueJeans wrote: »

I love general election count day and often attend the count centre. Unfortunately the " Aura" in Killarney is a bit far away. What Twitter hashtag is best to follow the Kerry count? Last time #kys & #kyn were used. Unfortunately #killyourself was trending in the US at the time causing a lot of noise. Secretary of State Kerry in the US can also trend from time to time. Any ideas?

#Rae

Kerrydude1981

RevBlueJeans wrote: »

I love general election count day and often attend the count centre. Unfortunately the " Aura" in Killarney is a bit far away. What Twitter hashtag is best to follow the Kerry count? Last time #kys & #kyn were used. Unfortunately #killyourself was trending in the US at the time causing a lot of noise. Secretary of State Kerry in the US can also trend from time to time. Any ideas?

#KYGE16???

Sounds like a gun

Or else a big pharmaceutical company that is going creating 5000 jobs in Tralee!!

BPKS

Kerrydude1981 wrote: »

http://traleetoday.ie/healy-raes-issue-colour-coded-instructions-on-which-one-to-voter-for-and-where/

Looking at the recent poll, if the electorate in Kerry vote in the 2 Healy Raes AND John Brassil then we deserve every bit of bad luck we get in the future. Have we such short memories that we have forgotten what Fianna Fail did to the country (and don't bother with the Healy Raes are independents BS that is trotted out).

ciarriaithuaidh

I agree to an extent on the Healy-Rae's, although MHR is a smart guy and only plays the gombeen in my view. Still a bit embarassing at times. The other lad is a total embarassment and it would be fairly ridiculous to see 2 of them get in.

As for the "FF got us into this mess" viewpoint, fine if you want to hide behind that, but facts are, a lot of what this FG/Lab govt has done is every bit as bad if not, worse than the swanee Bertie, Cowan etc lead us up. This is just one example:

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/stephen-donnelly-an-outrageous-act-of-vandalism-and-sheer-stupidity-30013668.html

I don't know much about John Brassil, so can't comment. Looks like he will definitely take a seat anyway.

On a personal level, would like to see Brendan Griffin elected as he seems like a good guy and works hard. I would welcome Martin Ferris not getting in also, but think he will scrape in alright.

BPKS

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

I agree to an extent on the Healy-Rae's, although MHR is a smart guy and only plays the gombeen in my view. Still a bit embarassing at times. The other lad is a total embarassment and it would be fairly ridiculous to see 2 of them get in.

As for the "FF got us into this mess" viewpoint, fine if you want to hide behind that, but facts are, a lot of what this FG/Lab govt has done is every bit as bad if not, worse than the swanee Bertie, Cowan etc lead us up. This is just one example:

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/stephen-donnelly-an-outrageous-act-of-vandalism-and-sheer-stupidity-30013668.html

I don't know much about John Brassil, so can't comment. Looks like he will definitely take a seat anyway.

On a personal level, would like to see Brendan Griffin elected as he seems like a good guy and works hard. I would welcome Martin Ferris not getting in also, but think he will scrape in alright.

I am not aligned to any politician party - I just cant fathom the fact that 5 years ago, FF candidates had posters up without the FF logo (or else so small it couldnt be seen unless you stood close by and looked at it) such was the toxicity of the party.

Yet here we are 5 years later and the Kerry electorate could land themselves with 3 Fianna Failers representing the county.

The current government had two hands tied behind their backs with what they could do to restore some semblance of stability to the country and I think in the circumstances they have done a decent job. Now maybe if FG were in power from 97-08 they would have fallen asleep at the wheel too and made the same balls-up that FF did, leading to the country losing its sovereignty - and if that was the case I would be equally critical of them.

The thoughts of FF returning to power was making my stomach turn about a month ago. But now I'm thinking maybe it might not be a bad thing - if they are in power as the Junior partner then maybe they could go the same way of the PDs, Greens and it seems Labour. In other words, wipe the fcukers out.

PS - Brassil seems like a decent bloke too to be fair to him.

Kerrydude1981

I wouldn't mind if Jimmy Deenihan had to fight for his seat,it seems to me he has got too comfortable,be no harm to shake him up a bit

Boom__Boom

BPKS wrote: »

Yet here we are 5 years later and the Kerry electorate could land themselves with 3 Fianna Failers representing the county.

What amazes me is that the Healy-Raes never seem to get any criticism whatsoever for daddy's part in helping drive the country of a cliff as part of the government during the years 2007 to 2011.

BPKS

Boom__Boom wrote: »

What amazes me is that the Healy-Raes never seem to get any criticism whatsoever for daddy's part in helping drive the country of a cliff as part of the government during the years 2007 to 2011.

Ya but he got a new hospital in Kenmare (which remains 3/4s empty by the way) and a nice new road form Kilgarvan to Kenmare so thats all the people down there will remember. Except for the people down there whose children had to emigrate maybe......:rolleyes:

RevBlueJeans

Is there still a town / country divide in Kerry? Despite intense rivalry at times Tralee and Killarney people are urbanites at heart in my opinion and may be slow to vote for their more "rural" countymen . Having said that mhr is more polished than dhr.

kennypowers

As I come to the realization that we will/ may elect a second healy rae as our representative to the Irish parliament ,my horror is compounded by the fact that some other stick whittling, buck leaping member of the clan will then be ''co opted'' into the council to take Dannys place creating a boss hog fifedom.
Kerry's eye this week highlighted Dannys greed in his role as councilor, trying to close down a road project his company had lost a bid on for Kerry co co.
The me fein party is alive and well .
As proud Kerry people we should be ashamed for falling for this bluff.

lottpaul

kennypowers wrote: »

As I come to the realization that we will/ may elect a second healy rae as our representative to the Irish parliament ,my horror is compounded by the fact that some other stick whittling, buck leaping member of the clan will then be ''co opted'' into the council to take Dannys place creating a boss hog fifedom.
Kerry's eye this week highlighted Dannys greed in his role as councilor, trying to close down a road project his company had lost a bid on for Kerry co co.
The me fein party is alive and well .
As proud Kerry people we should be ashamed for falling for this bluff.

I suppose that's the great thing about democracy - we get who we (as a people) vote for. The bottom line is that unless enough people vote for DHR or any other candidate (and don't forget that sometimes number 2, 3, 4 or 5 votes etc are crucial) they will not be elected.

Just listening to people there's a feeling that the Healy Raes might get a better deal for Kerry in the event of a hung Dáil. Some will vote for them as a pure protest/good riddance to all of ye vote etc. Friday will tell all!

But it comes down to all of us getting out and using our votes.

lottpaul

The apology given by Gerry Adams for Martin Ferris collecting one of the murderers of Garda Gerry McCabe from prison slipped under the radar a bit but is unprecedented really.
Especially since Ferris has repeatedly said that he does not regret his action.
It looks very much as if Adams has overruled Ferris - maybe a damage limitation exercise and a sign that Sinn Féin feels their Kerry seat is now in real danger?

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/gerry-adams-of-course-i-apologise-for-martin-ferris-collecting-pearse-mcauley-from-jail-721556.html

cyning

If my 3 year old apologised with that many qualifying statements I would point out it wasn't a real apology

I can just about cope with MHR. Danny not so much. And one of them in the Dail is enough thank you! It's interesting that Dan Kiely is canvassing for them in North Kerry though.

Pixie O Gorman made the 9 o clock news with his beach video tonight. He polled around 900 in the local elections: and he would have a strongish vote in Tralee too from the anti water marches. It will be interesting to see where his transfers go when he is eliminated too I think. It will be the transfers that will elect one of Danny/Arthur Spring or Brendan Griffin to the last seat I would imagine.

spookwoman

Opps https://www.facebook.com/Linzfoster/photos/a.132286286846146.32774.115929061815202/980631242011642/?type=3&theater

Boom__Boom

cyning wrote: »

I can just about cope with MHR. Danny not so much. And one of them in the Dail is enough thank you! It's interesting that Dan Kiely is canvassing for them in North Kerry though.

Could easily see a lot of folk thinking along those lines re Danny and 2 is too many. The other thing is that if Danny was elected you would then have another Healy-Rae co-opted on to the county council to replace him.

I'd imagine the reason Kiely is canvassing for them is strongly related to the fact that Kiely's legal team in his challenge to the election result was led by the Healy-Rae sister.

Boom__Boom

spookwoman wrote: »

Opps https://www.facebook.com/Linzfoster/photos/a.132286286846146.32774.115929061815202/980631242011642/?type=3&theater

Well the good news for the photographer is that Fitzgibbon hasn't a snowball's chance in hell.

Boom__Boom

Boom__Boom wrote: »

I'd imagine the reason Kiely is canvassing for them is strongly related to the fact that Kiely's legal team in his challenge to the election result was led by the Healy-Rae sister.

Think it was Elizabeth Murphy...

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/election-appeal-set-for-supreme-court-279110.html

Rosemary was brought in for the recount, but not in the case afaik...

BPKS

BPKS wrote: »

The current government had two hands tied behind their backs with what they could do to restore some semblance of stability to the country and I think in the circumstances they have done a decent job.

I think they have done nothing at all.

Our economy is recovering, as the EU calls all the shots now. So we are doing well in the area FG doesn't really control.

But in anything FG has had to deal with, health, housing, crime, Irish Water...it's been a complete and utter shambles.

kennypowers

lottpaul wrote: »

I suppose that's the great thing about democracy - we get who we (as a people) vote for. The bottom line is that unless enough people vote for DHR or any other candidate (and don't forget that sometimes number 2, 3, 4 or 5 votes etc are crucial) they will not be elected.

Just listening to people there's a feeling that the Healy Raes might get a better deal for Kerry in the event of a hung Dáil. Some will vote for them as a pure protest/good riddance to all of ye vote etc. Friday will tell all!

But it comes down to all of us getting out and using our votes.

Of course we should all reflect on how lucky we are to live in a democracy and to be able to have such discussions without fear of reprisal.
But the proportional representation imo is fundamentally flawed. I would much prefer to see a first past the post system.Also the policy of co opting ones seat on the council to an unelected family member needs immediate overhaul.
For the very poor caliber of candidate in Kerry its still panning out to be a very interesting election.

Boom__Boom

Deleted User wrote: »

Think it was Elizabeth Murphy...

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/election-appeal-set-for-supreme-court-279110.html

Rosemary was brought in for the recount, but not in the case afaik...

You are correct - I meant to say the recount.

cyning

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Could easily see a lot of folk thinking along those lines re Danny and 2 is too many. The other thing is that if Danny was elected you would then have another Healy-Rae co-opted on to the county council to replace him.

I'd imagine the reason Kiely is canvassing for them is strongly related to the fact that Kiely's legal team in his challenge to the election result was led by the Healy-Rae sister.

Dan Kiely still has a lot of support especially around Tarbert... It's enough to make me not vote for them if he turned up at my door! I'll be intrigued to see where the votes go. The transfers will be more critical this time round than in other elections I think.

I actually like proportional representation. Think it's fairer in a way.

spookwoman

Boom__Boom wrote: »

spookwoman wrote: »

Opps https://www.facebook.com/Linzfoster/photos/a.132286286846146.32774.115929061815202/980631242011642/?type=3&theater

Well the good news for the photographer is that Fitzgibbon hasn't a snowball's chance in hell.

Its in breach of copyright law if she's swiping images off the net without permission. Can be brought to court over it.

Boom__Boom

spookwoman wrote: »

Its in breach of copyright law if she's swiping images off the net without permission. Can be brought to court over it.

Obviously it's against the law and it speaks a world about Fitzgibbon's morality that she would do this, but trying to bring someone to court over this would be a major hassle.