Kerry candidates in GE 2016

Irish_rat

Pink Fairy wrote: »

I agree, Ferris doesn't transfer well to my recollection, and if Fine Gael voters do things correctly they could squeeze him out whilst getting Deenihan and Griffin over the line

The best outcome IMO

Kerrydude1981

https://twitter.com/radiokerry/status/703622449435418625

RevBlueJeans

Will SF rue not running a "sweeper" in South kerry?

cyning

It seems South Kerry voted are staying in South Kerry and North Kerry votes are going there!

Norma Moriarty votes should bring Brassil over the line (I hope!).

Do people not think that Brian Finucane and Pixie o Gormans votes will transfer to Martin Ferris?

And I think Deenihan didn't do enough canvassing.

RevBlueJeans

I think he canvassed strongly in his comfort zone Listowel and hinterland but lacked presence in Tralee, Killarney and the rest of the county. Some candidates were out of the traps earlier (eg MHR and John Brassil ) and I think it will stand to them. I thought the sf campaign was not as strong and thoroughgoing in kerry as their campaigning elsewhere or in previous elections.

Kerrydude1981

Just on the radio saying Fine Gael are worried that Spring's votes will go to Ferris due to both been from Tralee

cyning

RevBlueJeans wrote: »

I think he canvassed strongly in his comfort zone Listowel and hinterland but lacked presence in Tralee, Killarney and the rest of the county. Some candidates were out of the traps earlier (eg MHR and John Brassil ) and I think it will stand to them. I thought the sf campaign was not as strong and thoroughgoing in kerry as their campaigning elsewhere or in previous elections.

I live in Listowel. I thought his canvassing around here was awful. Where the rest of FG were is beyond me. Obviously wouldn't have expected Aoife Thornton owing to circumstances, but where was Mikey Kennelly? John Brassil had Jimmy Moloney, Niall Kelleher, Mark Daly, Ned O Sullivan.... Jimmy Deenihans vote collapsed in his own home; Brassil took as many votes as he did. He doesn't deserve to lose his seat but he really might.

And I'd agree that Sinn Fein wasn't great. I had people here canvassing for him and couldn't get a straight answer or even an ill find that out for you from them. We had no one from labour.

Kerrydude1981

First count after 8pm

Re canvassing

John Brassil was the first to call to my door that was last July

The last to call to the door was a lad canvassing for Jimmy Deenihan that was last Thursday afternoon,

There was a member of Fine Gael on the radio there,

Jerry O'Sullivan was talking to him about Jimmy Deenihan and his poor showing in this election,this fella made out the biggest reason that Jimmy has polled so badly is down to his own supporters in his own area,"they got too comfortable" he said and they thought that just because he was a minister in the outgoing government that it was taken as a given that he would get a seat no bother.

That Roy Keane saying form 2002 springs to mind

"Fail to prepare, prepare to fail"

cyning

According to Kerry's Eye FG have accepted Jimmy Deeniham will lose his seat. First count in about 30 minutes.

Pink Fairy

cyning wrote: »

According to Kerry's Eye FG have accepted Jimmy Deeniham will lose his seat. First count in about 30 minutes.

That's a bit premature, transfers could make a huge difference here, interesting.

cyning

Pink Fairy wrote: »

That's a bit premature, transfers could make a huge difference here, interesting.

I thought so too. The tallies had him about 2000 behind, so unless they've been rallying the no 2s too?

Kerrydude1981

https://twitter.com/radiokerry/status/703700582461251584

Irish_rat

A pure mess. Two Healy-Rae's does confuse things

siblers

Might be a stupid question but what will happen to Jimmy Denehan and all the the other TDs if they lose their seat? Will they have to go out and get regular jobs like us?

cyning

It really is a mess.

Jimmy Deenihan will get a pension now. Arthur Spring will need a job!

Pink Fairy

cyning wrote: »

It really is a mess.

Jimmy Deenihan will get a pension now. Arthur Spring will need a job!

He still has his juice bar in manor

cyning

Pink Fairy wrote: »

He still has his juice bar in manor

Yerra he's grand so!

Finally a first count in. Michael Healy Rae with over 20,000 votes.

acequion

Had to zone out for awhile. What's happening now? Have people been eliminated? What's happening with Deenihan?

Pink Fairy

acequion wrote: »

Had to zone out for awhile. What's happening now? Have people been eliminated? What's happening with Deenihan?

Early days yet, prob get a few independents eliminated quickly... Depends on transfers etc, but if I was Deenihan I'd be worried alright

acequion

Has Spring no chance?

Irish_rat

acequion wrote: »

Has Spring no chance?

Practically very little chance and Deenihan looks to be going out the gate as well

cyning

acequion wrote: »

Has Spring no chance?

Spring has 4813. Jimmy Deenihan has 6489 and looks like he is losing his seat. So no chance.

Kerrydude1981

Danny Healy Rae benefiting from his brother's surplus is a given

But of what is left over of his surplus is what's going to be interesting and it will be interesting to seeing who will get the bulk of what is left over

On the 10 o clock news on Radio Kerry they were saying outside of Danny Healy Rae,Martin Ferris,John Brassil,Brendan Griffin and Norma Moriarty were all doing well out of the transfers

Kerrydude1981

I think the timing of Danny Healy Rae's entry to the election caught the rest cold and leaving it so late didn't give them the time to react and run an extra candidate,

Im sure if Labour and Sinn Fein had the time again they would have ran an extra candidate to take on the Healy Rae's

The Healy Rae's have played a blinder

kaiser31

Pink Fairy wrote: »

He still has his juice bar in manor

To the best of my knowledge, all those stall holders in the middle of Manor (juice bar, bun bar, barbers, phone cases) have been served notices to quit by the new owners of the retail park. So he may indeed have to find a new job.

Pink Fairy

kaiser31 wrote: »

To the best of my knowledge, all those stall holders in the middle of Manor (juice bar, bun bar, barbers, phone cases) have been served notices to quit by the new owners of the retail park. So he may indeed have to find a new job.

He worked in a bank before that, I'm sure he'll be ok.
Wonder if there will be any Seanad spots opening up

kaiser31

Pink Fairy wrote: »

He worked in a bank before that, I'm sure he'll be ok.
Wonder if there will be any Seanad spots opening up

He worked for Anglo if I remember correctly. Jeeze he has ****e luck!

I sure he'll be well looked after.

kaiser31

Kerrydude1981 wrote: »

I think the timing of Danny Healy Rae's entry to the election caught the rest cold and leaving it so late didn't give them the time to react and run an extra candidate,

Im sure if Labour and Sinn Fein had the time again they would have ran an extra candidate to take on the Healy Rae's

The Healy Rae's have played a blinder

The timing was genius. I wonder will Tom Fleming be getting DHR council seat?

Boom__Boom

kaiser31 wrote: »

The timing was genius. I wonder will Mike Fleming be getting DHR council seat?

Yeah heard the deal was done - however Tom has to change his surname to Healy-Rae first thing tomorrow morning as a sign of his due deference to be adopted into the clan as an outsider.

Boom__Boom

Pink Fairy wrote: »

He worked in a bank before that, I'm sure he'll be ok.
Wonder if there will be any Seanad spots opening up

kaiser31 wrote: »

He worked for Anglo if I remember correctly. Jeeze he has ****e luck!

I sure he'll be well looked after.

Labour will have very few Seanad spots as they only have a limited enough number of councillors after the locals. Not being in government they will be in a very limited position to hand out goodies and those they do are likely to go to those who might have a chance next time out, so not a hope Spring will be getting anything from the Labour party.

kaiser31

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Yeah heard the deal was done - however Tom has to change his surname to Healy-Rae first thing tomorrow morning as a sign of his due deference to be adopted into the clan as an outsider.

Tom! I meant Tom!

kaiser31

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Yeah heard the deal was done - however Tom has to change his surname to Healy-Rae first thing tomorrow morning as a sign of his due deference to be adopted into the clan as an outsider.

Stranger things have happened. Are happening 😂

Pink Fairy

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Labour will have very few Seanad spots as they only have a limited enough number of councillors after the locals. Not being in government they will be in a very limited position to hand out goodies and those they do are likely to go to those who might have a chance next time out, so not a hope Spring will be getting anything from the Labour party.

I'm not so sure, he's one of the brighter lights in the party, was vocal in the dáil and I would presume that they would want to keep him in the public eye for the next election inside the next 2 years

Boom__Boom

kaiser31 wrote: »

Tom! I meant Tom!

Yeah I knew who you meant.

Personally I'd be doubtful as to whether they will give Tom a council seat - I think they are far more likely to pass it on to the next generation.

Pink Fairy

Just having a look nationally, and even within Kerry, Sinn Fein haven't done as well as was expected.
We've just had a govt that was hated, and the previous mob were (we were told) never going to get back into government... And yet Sinn Fein haven't made any real significant progress.
Chances are that it will be a FG & FG coalition and Sinn Fein will be shouting from the sidelines.

kaiser31

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Yeah I knew who you meant.

Personally I'd be doubtful as to whether they will give Tom a council seat - I think they are far more likely to pass it on to the next generation.

Mayhaps. But they'd want to be careful that the electorate don't get Healy Rae fatigue. Two in government & two more in local government are an awful lot of Healy Raes.

Kerrydude1981

Pink Fairy wrote: »

Just having a look nationally, and even within Kerry, Sinn Fein haven't done as well as was expected.
We've just had a govt that was hated, and the previous mob were (we were told) never going to get back into government... And yet Sinn Fein haven't made any real significant progress.
Chances are that it will be a FG & FG coalition and Sinn Fein will be shouting from the sidelines.

They will claim that doubling their seats will be a success in some way, but I think they do need to change leader,like during the week when he was having trouble with the figures again he just threw that problem over to Pierce Doherty

As re Kerry,

Before Danny Healy Rae entered the race,I think Sinn Fein were hopeful of getting a lot of transfers off Michael Healy Rae enough that would get Martin Ferris elected but then the Healy Rae's turned the whole race upside down

Pink Fairy

Kerrydude1981 wrote: »

They will claim that doubling their seats will be a success in some way, but I think they do need to change leader,like during the week when he was having trouble with the figures again he just threw that problem over to Pierce Doherty

Yeah, but the new leader won't be Doherty or Mary Lou.
Sinn Fein is an all ireland party , but their core supoortbis based norty of the border, their next leader will have to be a stormont minister

Kerrydude1981

Pink Fairy wrote: »

Yeah, but the new leader won't be Doherty or Mary Lou.
Sinn Fein is an all ireland party , but their core supoortbis based norty of the border, their next leader will have to be a stormont minister

Maybe if they want to get places in the south they might have to change and split the party.

But that is never going to happen.

Boom__Boom

Pink Fairy wrote: »

I'm not so sure, he's one of the brighter lights in the party, was vocal in the dáil and I would presume that they would want to keep him in the public eye for the next election inside the next 2 years

Nah - Spring's vote First Preference Vote decreased by 50% - there's no way he's coming back from that kind of performance, especially when you remember that Graham only barely got across the line in the locals in Tralee.

I could easily see Labour throw in behind Moloney in Killarney - there's very little in the way of strong candidates around Killarney and it would be a lot easier pick up a chunk of the Killarney vote there than going against Taoreasa in Tralee who will be running for SF next time out.

kerryked

Danny gaining 3000 votes from michael, this really is amazing to watch

Fair play to them, they've played a blinder alright, the cute hoors :pac:

Kerrydude1981

So that is Danny Healy Rae elected with 13,826 votes


Michael Healy Rae IND – 20,378 (elected 1st count)

Danny Healy Rae IND – 13,826 (+3,835 )(elected 2nd count)

Brendan Griffin FG– 10,381 (+707 )

Martin Ferris SF – 10,098 (+640)

John Brassil FF – 8,642(+486)

Jimmy Deenihan FG– 6,827 (+338)

Arthur Spring LAB- 5,011 (+198)

Norma Moriarty FF– 4,893 (+545)

Michael Pixie O’Gorman IND– 1,364 (+128)

Michael Fitzgerald GP– 1,050 (+39)

Brian Finucane PBP/AAA – 1,046 (+65)

Grace O’Donnell FG – 817 (+41)

Donal Corcoran RENUA- 769 (+53)

Mary Fitzgibbon IND – 690 (+55)

Kevin Murphy IND –491 (+27)

Henry Gaynor IND – 155 (+8)

kerryked

If it finishes up the way its panning out at the moment, with 2HRs, Griffin, Ferris and Brassil, I don't think any of the losers can have any complaints.

As was mentioned previously, the other parties failed to react quickly enough when Danny announced his intention to run.

Think Arthur Spring vote was affected by a poor party performance nationally, Joan was very poor in the debates and in general.

Deenihan (probably) rested on his laurels a little bit. Hadn't seen him around canvassing at all, others have also said even his performance in listowel was very poor.

Will be interesting to see how it does pan it though, Deenihan isn't dead and buried just yet.

Boom__Boom

kerryked wrote: »

If it finishes up the way its panning out at the moment, with 2HRs, Griffin, Ferris and Brassil, I don't think any of the losers can have any complaints.

As was mentioned previously, the other parties failed to react quickly enough when Danny announced his intention to run.

Think Arthur Spring vote was affected by a poor party performance nationally, Joan was very poor in the debates and in general.

Deenihan (probably) rested on his laurels a little bit. Hadn't seen him around canvassing at all, others have also said even his performance in listowel was very poor.

Will be interesting to see how it does pan it though, Deenihan isn't dead and buried just yet.

Deenihan is dead and buried. None of the candidates who are going to get eliminated are going to transfer to him (or have sufficient numbers - O'Donnell) to enable him to catch the 3 ahead of him. Only thing of interest is what order the 3 of Brasil, Ferris and Griffin get accross the line.

cyning

If Norma Moriarty is eliminated before Arthur Spring you would imagine Brassil will get in before Ferris. He should pick up massive transfers from her you would think.

Kerrydude1981

1. Brendan Griffin FG– 10,520 (+139)

2. Martin Ferris SF – 10,214 (+116)

3. John Brassil FF – 8,719 (+77)

4. Jimmy Deenihan FG– 6,872 (+45)

5. Arthur Spring LAB- 5,036 (+25)

6. Norma Moriarty FF– 5,012(+119)

7. Michael Pixie O’Gorman IND– 1,380 (+16)

8. Michael Fitzgerald GP– 1,059 (+9)

9. Brian Finucane PBP/AAA – 1,058 (+12)

10. Grace O’Donnell FG – 827(+10)

11. Donal Corcoran RENUA- 780(+11)

12. Mary Fitzgibbon IND – 707 (+17)

13. Kevin Murphy IND – 505(+14)

14. Henry Gaynor IND – 158 (+3)

Returning Officer Padraig Burke has now announced he will eliminate Kevin Murphy and Henry Gaynor and this will make up count 4.
This consists of 663 votes.

Kerrydude1981

Following count five the remainder of the candidates stand as follows:
After count five here is how the field stands:

1. Brendan Griffin FG– (+) 53 10661

2. Martin Ferris SF – (+) 43 10364

3. John Brassil FF – (+)193 8957

4. Jimmy Deenihan FG– (+) 43 6944

5. Arthur Spring LAB- (+) 26 5093

6. Norma Moriarty FF– (+) 49 5081

7. Michael Pixie O’Gorman IND– (+)42 1529

8. Brian Finucane PBP/AAA – (+)32 1161

9. Michael Fitzgerald GP– (+)38 1123

10. Donal Corcoran RENUA- (+) 85 886

11. Grace O’Donnell FG – (+) 18 854

Kerrydude1981

Following count seven the remainder of the candidates stand as follows:
After count seven – here is how the field stands….

1. Brendan Griffin FG– 10,999 (+127)

2. Martin Ferris SF – 10,490 (+72)

3. John Brassil FF – 9,137 (+132)

4. Jimmy Deenihan FG– 7,257 (+89)

5. Arthur Spring LAB- 5,356 (+75)

6. Norma Moriarty FF– 5,172 (+58)

7. Michael Pixie O’Gorman IND– 1,589 (+53)

8. Brian Finucane PBP/AAA – 1,261 (+92)

9. Michael Fitzgerald GP– 1,222 (+87)

Returning Officer Padraig Burke has now announced he will eliminate Michael Fitzgerald and the distribution of his votes will make up count 8.
1,222 votes are to be distributed.

theaceofspies

Never heard such nonsense from the Irish 'media'. You would swear that a new broom is in. All Paddy has done is re-elect Fianna Fail(ure).
NOTHING has changed.

Pink Fairy

theaceofspies wrote: »

Never heard such nonsense from the Irish 'media'. You would swear that a new broom is in. All Paddy has done is re-elect Fianna Fail(ure).
NOTHING has changed.

Fianna Fáil weren't in power last time, so something has changed!