New England Patriots Thread Mod Warning Post #253

BizzyC

I'm starting to think we're going to be moving forward with Cam again next season too.

We're going to be picking somewhere in the 14-18 range in the draft, that means that there will be 3-4 QB's taken off the board above us potentially.
Jets, Jags, Broncos, Panthers, Falcons all could be in the mix for a QB and will all be picking in front of us.
I'm not familiar with the upcoming draft class of QB, but I doubt there will be that many 1st round quality guys to go round...

On the FA side, I don't see anyone coming available that I'd love to have over Cam...
I still think that Cam + some receiving talent would be good enough to get to the playoffs.

ELM327

We don't need an upper echelon QB though. We need someone like Tannehill. A game manager capable of handing the ball off and running play action without giving the ball away.

eagle eye

paulie21 wrote:

Provide your reasoning and give us an alternative with stats to back it up

12 games, 57% pass completions, 16 TD, 15 ints, QB rating 72.8.
That's this season.

eagle eye

ELM327 wrote:

We don't need an upper echelon QB though. We need someone like Tannehill. A game manager capable of handing the ball off and running play action without giving the ball away.

Well Notre Dame's Ian Book I'd compare with Josh Allen, great football IQ, needs to improve a bit as a passer but can run with the ball and reads the game very well. Very similar to Allen coming out of college.

ELM327

Allen is another I'd put in the up and down category. He has something insane like 70% pass completion this year and he's looked cerebral anytime I've seen him this year. But for the last couple of years he's had a lot of INTs.

I don't follow college football enough these days to know enough about who's coming through.

Christy42

ELM327 wrote: »

Allen is another I'd put in the up and down category. He has something insane like 70% pass completion this year and he's looked cerebral anytime I've seen him this year. But for the last couple of years he's had a lot of INTs.

I don't follow college football enough these days to know enough about who's coming through.

I am curious about Allen. If it is real growth or not.

On Wentz he has too many errors this year. He doesn't have a great supporting cast but his decision making has been very suspect. It isn't just people not getting open or no offensive line. They were masking issues he had before. Still Goff is showing a decent QB can do well with all the tools. If someone stops him playing hero ball he could be alright. Massive contract for a game manager though.

ELM327

Christy42 wrote: »

I am curious about Allen. If it is real growth or not.

On Wentz he has too many errors this year. He doesn't have a great supporting cast but his decision making has been very suspect. It isn't just people not getting open or no offensive line. They were masking issues he had before. Still Goff is showing a decent QB can do well with all the tools. If someone stops him playing hero ball he could be alright. Massive contract for a game manager though.

Could be, or it could be like nick foles 28-2 year!

paulie21

eagle eye wrote: »

12 games, 57% pass completions, 16 TD, 15 ints, QB rating 72.8.
That's this season.

Did you miss the part where I said he was playing behind a crap O Line and missing his top 3 WRs and TE for lots of games? Peak TB12 would struggle with that

BizzyC

paulie21 wrote: »

Did you miss the part where I said he was playing behind a crap O Line and missing his top 3 WRs and TE for lots of games? Peak TB12 would struggle with that

Hurts seems to be doing ok with the same group around him....

I was sympathetic to Wentz until that happened.

Tom1991

Not really apples to apples.
For whatever reason with Wentz running the ball was a last resort even though when they did (statistically) they did quite well.
Now they are run first and a different tea to plan for.
Wentz shoulders some of the blame but unless hes making it up as he goes pederson should get more flak.
Bitter pill for wentz this year is those magical escapes he was making are now dreadful sacks the highlight reel on him usually starts with him slipping a tackle in the backfield and then the game opens up for him. Id put him in that dangerously close to being the next fitzmagic bracket where a game degenerates into two 12 year olds playing madden and slinging it over and over and then he plays well but needing to be cerebral and pick a team off in 4-5 yard plays he wont thrive.

No thanks to wentz but whatever is planned in this rebuild its not going to be around any QB on a massive contract. If its not cam on the cheap again it will be someone like jacoby brisset,keenum or another revolving door character or scrapheap type looking to rebuild themselves like jameis,mariota,mitch even

BizzyC

Tyrod Taylor will be looking for a new team next season....

I always thought he has been underrated.
Is he a franchise QB, no - but he has always done a good job with what was around him in the opportunities he's had.
I'd rank him near the top of the "Middle of the pack" type QB's out there.

eagle eye

paulie21 wrote: »

Did you miss the part where I said he was playing behind a crap O Line and missing his top 3 WRs and TE for lots of games? Peak TB12 would struggle with that

It doesn't excuse the many awful ints he has thrown which are nowhere near a receiver.

BizzyC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1z6ETIe7vw&feature=emb_title

Thought this was an interesting analysis of the offensive issues against the Rams.
Spoiler - The WR's are crap, Cam made some bad decisions and there has been some terrible playcalling at times...

ELM327

BizzyC wrote: »

Tyrod Taylor will be looking for a new team next season....

I always thought he has been underrated.
Is he a franchise QB, no - but he has always done a good job with what was around him in the opportunities he's had.
I'd rank him near the top of the "Middle of the pack" type QB's out there.

He's essentially a slightly worse version of Cam. No thanks.

dh1985

ELM327 wrote: »

He's essentially a slightly worse version of Cam. No thanks.

At least Cam Newton was good once. Tyrod Taylor has always been a poor average. I would have liked to see Cam with a better offense than we have bef0re casting judgement. We have the worst set of wide outs in football. Ok Cam has made mistakes no doubt but it must be frustrating for him also to be throwing to such a poor group of players. Might even lead him to forcing a pass for the sake of it. Actually surprised how positive his attitude has been all year. Havemt seen much or heard much of the sulkish behaviour I would have associated with him.
Just on the josh allen discussion, think this.guy is the real deal, continuous steady improvement since his rookie year. After a long search I think the Bill's finally have their new Jim kelly.
Let's hope the Patriots dont take as long to find their next Tom Brady

ELM327

Mariota looked well playing for LV this week. Could also be an option.

AbusesToilets

ELM327 wrote: »

Mariota looked well playing for LV this week. Could also be an option.

He was very good, surprised me. Wouldn't be against taking a flyer on him. I love Cam, but he is done. His mechanics are shot, reminds me of watching Peyton throwing in 2015. Tebow had better form at this stage.

trebor28

Man Cam can't throw for **** anymore.

There was a throw to Meyers in the back left corner of the end zone in the first half, Cam had no major pressure on him and it nearly went into the bleachers.

If Meyers had a 12 foot ladder and a fisherman's net on a pole he still wouldn't have caught it.

And that's not to mention that fumble he had that luckily for him got called back.

Can't see him being back next year, they should start Stidham for the last 2 games, what's the worst that could happen? The get a better draft pick?

AbusesToilets

trebor28 wrote: »

Man Cam can't throw for **** anymore.

There was a throw to Meyers in the back left corner of the end zone in the first half, Cam had no major pressure on him and it nearly went into the bleachers.

If Meyers had a 12 foot ladder and a fisherman's net on a pole he still wouldn't have caught it.

And that's not to mention that fumble he had that luckily for him got called back.

Can't see him being back next year, they should start Stidham for the last 2 games, what's the worst that could happen? The get a better draft pick?

If Bill was being pragmatic, he'd realise winning further only hurts future prospects. He should take the opportunity to screw the Jets out of getting Lawrence to boot.

StringerBell

That's the real end of an era feeling now, an incredible playoff run these last 20 years or so (MC season aside which in fairness we were pretty unlucky to miss out on)

I think BB has done a great job with what he has this year but there have been some very poor decisions and calls, its a shame it didn't work out with Cam, I'd have liked to see it work but it just hasn't and I see no reason to leave Stidham on the bench for the final few games, throw him in and maybe he improves or shows something to increase his trading capital at the least.

Watching Brady pull off another comeback v Atlanta to keep the Bucs on track make it that little bit more bitter to swallow but I have no doubt we will be back, this season has been incredibly tough on the organisation with the roster changes and opt outs along with injuries/illness. The best coach in football is still at the helm and had us competitive in plenty of the games which is a testament to him. Just try get some decent picks now and rebuild again, it isn't in Bills nature to tank I think but we should have some decent picks and we will have some room cap wise to work with I believe.

Been an incredible rise the last few years in particular and I can't wait to see where it goes next year.

BizzyC

Diggs showed what a quality receiver can do last night.
Every time Allen needed to move to buy a little time, Diggs got open.
Every time the Bills brought pressure, none of our guys could make space.

I wanted to give Cam plenty of opportunity and excuse a lot of the offensive woes on the WR group, but his throwing has become uglier as the season has gone on.
I don't think he has the shoulder to keep up to a full season any more, his throwing motion the last few weeks vs the start of the season looks terrible, and his accuracy is being affected.

me89

Averaging less then 130 passing yards per game over the last five weeks, big rebuild needed, O line and running backs look fine for next season. Need to find a QB, TE and 2 WRs .

Christy42

BizzyC wrote: »

Diggs showed what a quality receiver can do last night.
Every time Allen needed to move to buy a little time, Diggs got open.
Every time the Bills brought pressure, none of our guys could make space.

I wanted to give Cam plenty of opportunity and excuse a lot of the offensive woes on the WR group, but his throwing has become uglier as the season has gone on.
I don't think he has the shoulder to keep up to a full season any more, his throwing motion the last few weeks vs the start of the season looks terrible, and his accuracy is being affected.

There was a great shot right before Cam decided to rush for a score of all the receivers covered with their feet planted. Certainly Cam missed the few shots he was given as well (except for the shot to Byrd which was dropped). You can try Stidham for the last game if you like but he seems to combine the mobility of Brady with Cam's current accuracy (indeed he seemed to be skipping passes along the ground the same way Cam did).

Mr. Guappa

me89 wrote: »

Averaging less then 130 passing yards per game over the last five weeks, big rebuild needed, O line and running backs look fine for next season. Need to find a QB, TE and 2 WRs .

I wouldn't be so sure that we are set on the OL. Joe Thuney is the one constant there, and he will hit FA in the off season. Onwenu looks very good for a late round pick, playing all over the line this year. But Wynn has missed huge chunks of each season with injury. Cannon is due to return, but I wouldn't be surprised if he called it a day either.

It will be interesting to see if the opt outs do return. Bolden has said he will be back, but any or all of Hightower, Chung and Cannon could easily decide to retire.

AbusesToilets

I think it might have been better business to try and deal one of Thuney or Gilmore for picks this year. Probably could have gotten a high 2nd or even a 1st, depending on the team. Bundle that with our own to try and move up to snag a top QB.

paulie21

https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1345765206459375616?s=19

el Fenomeno

Not that surprising I suppose. Just not good enough anymore to be anything other than a backup or goalline QB.

I grew fairly sick of his "I need to do better" spiels on Instagram every week in that stupid font.

el Fenomeno

Asiasi, our 3rd round draft pick at TE, gets his first catch of the season in Week 17.

Just one more catch to go to match Dalton Keane, our other 3rd round draft pick at TE, who has 2 catches this year.

Yikes.

StringerBell

I kinda wish we had traded some of our valuable guys so we could have some decent draft capital this year but then, maybe we do have some anyway given how BB has been hoarding picks over the years I must admit I've lost track. I will be looking into the likely draft and options over the next month and seeing how we are fixed. I am pretty sure the team is going to be in decent shape cap wise for next season so hopefully some good darts are thrown in the draft or some solid FA's can be added.

BizzyC

We can sign as much talent with the cap as we want, it's still looking ropey for QB next year.

I was hopeful on Cam and liked him up until around week 10. After that point his throwing got messier, the motion became uglier, he doesn't have the shoulder for a full season + playoffs anymore.
In the draft, all the round 1 talent will be gone before we can pick at 15, leaving us with FA to find a new starting QB...

Realistically who will be available?
I don't think Ryan and Stafford will be going next year.

From what I can see I think the best available will be Dalton or Fitzpatrick if they dont retire.
After them, you have Cam, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brisset, Tyrod Taylor....
Josh Rosen would be a complete punt choice for a signing....but he'd need more development to be a starter...

Fitzmagic would be the best choice in my eyes out of them all, but he's a 1year stop-gap at best at 38.

I just cant see anyone in FA or draft who looks like a realy option for the long term.

I think we should bring Brisset back, improve the weapons around him and hope he plays well under Josh again.

el Fenomeno

It's not inconceivable we try to move up by packaging some picks + players (Gilmore for example) too.

ELM327

I was just watching the 2012 draft recap, we got Hightower and Jones in the first round on defense.
BB and co do well in managing the draft, trading down (usually) but also trading up for the right player. He usually hits on defense players picked high, even going back to the likes of wilfork and seymour, but often misses on WR
I'd prefer us to trade out of the 15 slot, pick up some solid starters on defense in the draft, and use FA to get another QB. Brissett was passable with us, not good and not bad. Better than Cam.

I'dlove for us to trade and get Jimmy G back but I can't see it happening.

My pick at QB for next year would be Roethlisberger. He has a very high cap number and is 38. He's playing well but PIT have a lot of starters to resign including LT. We could get a trade done. He's One of my all time favorite non NE players so I'd be delighted to see him in blue!

Shedite27

BizzyC wrote: »

In the draft, all the round 1 talent will be gone before we can pick at 15, leaving us with FA to find a new starting QB...

You can never tell with drafts, we got Garoppolo at 64 and Brisett at 91. Maholmes was drafted 10, Russel Wilson 75, Aaron Rodgers 24, Lamar Jackson 32, Deshaun Watson 12, Tom Brady 199, Dak Prescott 135, Kirk Cousins 102.

Meanwhile, Jameis Winston 1, Marcus Mariota 2, Mitch Trubitsky 2, Carson Wentz 2, Blake Bortles 3, Sam Darnold 3.

Which list would you want from your QB from?

el Fenomeno

I wouldn't mind taking a shot at Trey Lance. Big guy, similar to Cam. Would fit in well with this new option offence McDaniels put in place for Cam. Would complement our offensive line strengths. We could supplement some receiving options later in the draft - or ideally in FA. I'd love if Kenny Golloday became available.

Mr. Guappa

Shedite27 wrote: »

You can never tell with drafts, we got Garoppolo at 64 and Brisett at 91. Maholmes was drafted 10, Russel Wilson 75, Aaron Rodgers 24, Lamar Jackson 32, Deshaun Watson 12, Tom Brady 199, Dak Prescott 135, Kirk Cousins 102.

Meanwhile, Jameis Winston 1, Marcus Mariota 2, Mitch Trubitsky 2, Carson Wentz 2, Blake Bortles 3, Sam Darnold 3.

Which list would you want from your QB from?

In hindsight, the decision not to draft any QB last year is even more baffling. At the time I took it as a huge show of faith in Stidham, but obviously he's not what we hoped, and surely BB knew this last March, so why not take even a mid/late round flyer on a QB hoping to strike gold?

BizzyC

Shedite27 wrote: »

You can never tell with drafts, we got Garoppolo at 64 and Brisett at 91. Maholmes was drafted 10, Russel Wilson 75, Aaron Rodgers 24, Lamar Jackson 32, Deshaun Watson 12, Tom Brady 199, Dak Prescott 135, Kirk Cousins 102.

Meanwhile, Jameis Winston 1, Marcus Mariota 2, Mitch Trubitsky 2, Carson Wentz 2, Blake Bortles 3, Sam Darnold 3.

Which list would you want from your QB from?

If you look at the list of starting QB's around the league that were not 1st round picks, its a very small list: Wilson, Brady, Dak, Kirk, Carr. You could add Hurts if you think Wentz is done.

There are plenty of QB's picked in the 1st round who aren't 1st round talent, but the fact still stands that you're more likely to get a starting-caliber QB from the 1st round than any other.

Lawrence is 1st round talent, so is Fields, but they wont be there at 15.
So the question then becomes about the next group in the draft; Lance, Jones, Trask & Wilson.

Are they 1st round talent, or guys who will simply be picked in the 1st round due to team needs.
And if we don't pick one up at 15, will we still have a shot at one at 46 or do we need to stretch on a QB to have a shot at picking up a decent one...

Shedite27

BizzyC wrote: »

If you look at the list of starting QB's around the league that were not 1st round picks, its a very small list: Wilson, Brady, Dak, Kirk, Carr. You could add Hurts if you think Wentz is done.

There are plenty of QB's picked in the 1st round who aren't 1st round talent, but the fact still stands that you're more likely to get a starting-caliber QB from the 1st round than any other.

Lawrence is 1st round talent, so is Fields, but they wont be there at 15.
So the question then becomes about the next group in the draft; Lance, Jones, Trask & Wilson.

Are they 1st round talent, or guys who will simply be picked in the 1st round due to team needs.
And if we don't pick one up at 15, will we still have a shot at one at 46 or do we need to stretch on a QB to have a shot at picking up a decent one...

My point was that there's more starting QB's that were on the board at 15 than not. I don't watch college football but would be happy enough to be picking at 15 if I was QB-shopping

ELM327

Shedite27 wrote: »

My point was that there's more starting QB's that were on the board at 15 than not. I don't watch college football but would be happy enough to be picking at 15 if I was QB-shopping

You could get an Aaron Rodgers or a Brandon Weedin at that range of spot though.

Foxtrol

Shedite27 wrote: »

My point was that there's more starting QB's that were on the board at 15 than not. I don't watch college football but would be happy enough to be picking at 15 if I was QB-shopping

That just isn't true though. The % of QBs that were drafted at or after 15 that become starters is absolutely tiny compared to the % of QBs that are selected between 1-14.

Sure you can find a QB from 15 onwards but it becomes less and less likely - generally 2 or 3 QBs are gone by pick 15 with another 10+ selected during the remainder of the draft. The draft involves a lot of luck but as you go on it moves from an educated guess to a complete lottery. You can hit but it is big risk to take with the most important position.

This year I'd be shocked if at least 4 QBs aren't already gone by pick 15, anyone that has a desire for a specific guy will have to move up a lot or be happy to settle for whatever comes even if they are an overpay at 15.

Foxtrol

After posting that earlier regarding QBs the below popped up on my timeline. Any team looking for a QB needs to trade up early or just hope they strike gold.

https://twitter.com/PFF_Mike/status/1346534539301183488?s=20

Shedite27

Foxtrol wrote: »

That just isn't true though. The % of QBs that were drafted at or after 15 that become starters is absolutely tiny compared to the % of QBs that are selected between 1-14.

Sure you can find a QB from 15 onwards but it becomes less and less likely - generally 2 or 3 QBs are gone by pick 15 with another 10+ selected during the remainder of the draft. The draft involves a lot of luck but as you go on it moves from an educated guess to a complete lottery. You can hit but it is big risk to take with the most important position.

This year I'd be shocked if at least 4 QBs aren't already gone by pick 15, anyone that has a desire for a specific guy will have to move up a lot or be happy to settle for whatever comes even if they are an overpay at 15.

Well that's only because there's a lot more picked after pick 15 than before it, hence dragging the average down. I assume it's the same for every position.

I'd say there's more NFL starters currently that are picked after 15 than before 15.

If someone can find the gem, there's as likely to be in round 2/3/4 as top 10 pick.

Foxtrol

Shedite27 wrote: »

Well that's only because there's a lot more picked after pick 15 than before it, hence dragging the average down. I assume it's the same for every position.

I'd say there's more NFL starters currently that are picked after 15 than before 15.

If someone can find the gem, there's as likely to be in round 2/3/4 as top 10 pick.

The numbers show us it definitely isn't as likely to get that gem in round 2/3/4 as top 10 pick, the opposite is true. The problem you're raising in bold is my whole point, your examples of QBs after the early first round is based off a much larger number of other QBs picked in those rounds not making it. Sure you can find a gem but there is a far higher % of misses, they just aren't as well known as first round busts.

Your point is more an argument for drafting a mid-late round QB every year to see if you get a gem but it is a massive gamble to put your team's season on a QB that slips past the early first round (and even early first round guys come with risks).

Christy42

Later round QBs starting
Bucs, Saints, 49ers, Seahawks, Vikings, Jaguars, Raiders, Eagles, Cowboys, Broncos


1st round QBs as main starter (discounting injury)
Pats, Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Colts, Texans, Titans, Chiefs, Chargers, Giants, Washington, Packers, Bears, Lions, Cardinals, Rams, Falcons, Panthers.

Based on how the season ended but discounting injuries to obvious starters. Obviously some of the above will change before next season.

22 - 10 for the 1st rounders. Given how many more QBs are drafted in later rounds that is a much higher success rate. For first round not top 15 you have Ravens, Panthers, Packers switching sides so still a 19-13 split in favour of the better draft picks. I count 7 1.1 picks starting.

el Fenomeno

Looks like Caserio is off to Houston as their new GM.

I know it's a promotion, but that's as bad a GM landing spot as I can remember in recent history.

Mr. Guappa

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Looks like Caserio is off to Houston as their new GM.

I know it's a promotion, but that's as bad a GM landing spot as I can remember in recent history.

Yeah seems like a bad situation there. Not surprised they went with Caserio though, they've been trying to get him with a few years. We resisted all those previous attempts, so obviously did not want to lose him. That said, our drafting has been sub-par recently so a change might be for the best? Not sure how much say Caserio had in our picks though?

ionadnapokot

How could JG come back to NE?

I dont know how things work in NFL with Trade's and Draft picks etc.

edit:
just came across this.
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/could-potential-49ers-patriots-jimmy-garoppolo-trade-be-win-win

ELM327

ionadnapokot wrote: »

How could JG come back to NE?

I dont know how things work in NFL with Trade's and Draft picks etc.

edit:
just came across this.
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/could-potential-49ers-patriots-jimmy-garoppolo-trade-be-win-win

Jimmy G for a fifth round pick would be a steal. As good as the moss trade IMO
I'd welcome him back with open arms.


Having a capable QB (not Cam) is only part of the puzzle though. A QB is useless if theres no one to throw to

AbusesToilets

Getting Jimmy back at that price would be a fleecing imo. He's had a tough season this year, but he is a top 10-15 QB when he's healthy. Has experience winning playoff games, which is something that can't be said for most other FA options. Also help with trying to attract FAs.

ELM327

I'd part with a second for him. I'd part with a first if we got say a 4th back with him.

ionadnapokot

ELM327 wrote: »

Jimmy G for a fifth round pick would be a steal. As good as the moss trade IMO
I'd welcome him back with open arms.


Having a capable QB (not Cam) is only part of the puzzle though. A QB is useless if theres no one to throw to

Sorry now but what is Round 5?
e.g. Round 1 Patriots pick 15th. So round 5 they pick 75th - but give it to 49ers?

That sounds like a steal!

Receiver options good in the Draft? Even for BB!