New England Patriots Thread Mod Warning Post #253

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117812143#Comment_117812143

You are talking in hindsight unless you can show me a post of yours at the time of the draft saying it was a bad pick.

As for Bill's first round picks, in 18 picks he's taken Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Logan Mankins, Jerod Mayo, Devin McCourty and Donta Hightower.

They are all top of the tree.

Name me a coach whose taken that many greats in the first round.

el Fenomeno

Meh, it's simple enough for me.

If you draft a first round player (31st overall, let's not forget, and not a top 5 or top 10 pick) and he helps you win a Super Bowl at any point during his tenure with you, then the pick was a success. That's 1 more Super Bowl than fans of most teams see during a first round pick's time with their team.

Anything more than that, and the pick becomes fantastic.

Michel had a solid rookie season culminating in an excellent playoff run with 360 odd yards and 6 TDs in 3 game, including the only TD in the Super Bowl win.

I'd consider that a successful pick. More longevity would have been nice - obviously - but he wasn't a complete bust because of what he achieved and contributed in his rookie season.

Would a 3rd or 4th round pick have achieved the same outcome if swapped in for Michel? Maybe, maybe not. Doesn't matter, Michel did it and that's all that matters.

I also don't like taking 1st round RBs, but when it's at the end of the first and you're not in rebuild mode but rather looking for contributors straight away, it's acceptable IMO. I would say once you get past the top 10-15 prospects in most drafts, there's very little separating the next 40 or 50.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117813400#Comment_117813400

I'll never understand attempts to try to justify individual player performances based on wins by a 53+ person team.

Does your logic work for you in inverse too - was every Patriot pick in the 2020 draft a bust because they 'contributed' to a losing season?

el Fenomeno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820130#Comment_117820130

Classic Foxtrol strawman argument.

I mean, you've completely ignored the point I'm making so why would I even bother trying to explain it again?

Or, could it be, your Anti-Patriots alarm is buzzing again?

I'll go with the latter. No doubt you'll be back with your "OMG why do Patriots fans always accuse me of this!?" schtick too.

Can't believe it took until August 2021 to add you to my ignore list, but here we are.

Don't worry though, I'll always remember that we're not allowed discuss the performances of any single player ever again, because it's a team sport.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820130#Comment_117820130

So if a player performs well the whole season, and particularly in the playoffs, it doesn't matter?

Lmfao at you.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820154#Comment_117820154

Very well said sir.

eagle eye

I'd imagine Mac Jones is finished for the night, 8 of 12 for 139 yards and a TD.

Newton 2 of 5 for 10 yards tonight.

Jones looks ready to me, hope he starts the season. He is so fast checking down and very aware of everything that's going on.

Stevenson looks very special, Taylor looks good as a punt returner too. I've a feeling Olszewski could be on the way out.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820154#Comment_117820154

What strawman? Your point was clear as day. Here is a direct quote -

'If you draft a first round player (31st overall, let's not forget, and not a top 5 or top 10 pick) and he helps you win a Super Bowl at any point during his tenure with you, then the pick was a success.'

Of course you can discuss individual players performance, however what you're clearly doing is the usual thing in these parts of using the bedrock of a team victory in assessing the value of an individual players - I don't agree with but can somewhat understand doing it for QBs but it is absolutely laughable to do it for an RB, the most replaceable of positions (as the Patriots show ever year).

Even Bill doesn't agree with you that the pick was a success, unless he thinks you trade 'successful' 1st round picks and trade them away for a day 3 pick after 3 years into their career.

As for Anti-Patriots, my first comment was saying how well they did in getting that value for him. Given your obvious paranoia of balanced comments regarding the Patriots, I hope you've followed through on the claim in your post

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117820741#Comment_117820741

Not to the level of 1st round draft pick expectations.

I don't know why you're getting angry with me, Bill is the one that didn't take up the 5th year option on this 'successful' 1st round pick and then traded him away for a day 3 pick.

This is some Sophie's choice for you - either Bill is wrong or I am right

eagle eye

Did you miss the following part of his post?

'Michel had a solid rookie season culminating in an excellent playoff run with 360 odd yards and 6 TDs in 3 game, including the only TD in the Super Bowl win.

I'd consider that a successful pick. More longevity would have been nice - obviously - but he wasn't a complete bust because of what he achieved and contributed in his rookie season.'

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117823472#Comment_117823472

I didn't, it has the exact same logical issue as what I responded to - the core of him being deemed a success is the Super Bowl win.

That year CJ Anderson came off his couch at the end of the year and ran for 299 yards and 2 TDs in 2 playoff games. Any RB can get hot for a few games.

The poster is basing their whole argument on a few team victories in evaluating the success of a draft pick - which is complete nonsense, as can be shown by how obviously stupid it is when you try to look at it the inverse (all Patriot's draft picks were busts because they 'contributed' to a losing season)

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117823558#Comment_117823558

He ran for 1236 yards and 12 TDs in 16 games that season. That included six 100+ yard games and two others with 90+.

How on earth you consider that getting hot for a couple of games is beyond me.

He had a great rookie season.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117823691#Comment_117823691

Now you're moving the goal posts - the other poster specifically and repeatedly called out the Super Bowl win as being as the core of their argument.

He was 15th in regular season rushing yards and then CJ Anderson off his couch out performed him on a per game level in the playoffs. To me that isn't a great rookie season, it is the minimum expected from a 1st round RB that is playing with the 'GOAT' QB, GOAT coach, a good OL, a great defense, on an 11-5 team that spends most of the time playing in front (all things that help RBs succeed). He was in a position to explode and did fine. For example, he had less yards and less yards per attempt than an undrafted RB in the same draft, who was also in a worse situation regarding all of those areas that helped Michel.

Even if you still believe that season is 'great', a 1st round pick with 1 great season that only gets worse and Bill decides to trade him 2 years later for a day 3 pick is simply not a 'success'.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117823472#Comment_117823472

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117824016#Comment_117824016

No i'm not, I posted just a short while ago the words from el Fenomeno's post where he said he had an excellent rookie season. Cop on.

Foxtrol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117824090#Comment_117824090

It is obvious the core of the poster's argument is the Super Bowl win makes it a good pick (why else mention fans of other teams being happy with a Super Bowl) and you're doing everything to move the goal posts through attempting to cherry picking one line, a line that still shows the poster caring about the Super Bowl win by going to the length of referencing a Super Bowl TD.

Even then, saying Michel had an excellent season over and over again doesn't make it true - he was in the best spot for a rookie RB to succeed that season and he did worse than an undrafted RB. In addition to 15th in rushing yards, he was 30th in yards per attempt - worse than the corpse of Frank Gore and world beater Isaiah Crowell. If you care about PFF grades he was tied 20th. The guy was fine in the regular season and went off in the playoffs, just like CJ Anderson did that year.

I came here to praise the return the Patriots received and we've entered the 'rewriting history' stage of the usual defense mechanism so I'll take a break until you're back to reality.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117824490#Comment_117824490

No, you are hear to argue with Patriots fans because you hate the Patriots. That's been evident for years, you are just like JRG but you try to hide it.

Fact of the matter is he had over 1200 yards and 12 TDs in 16 games in his rookie season and that's a really good season. A first round rookie doing that is very good.

I don't care about stupid grades and I think PFF is awful.

I started out saying he played well the whole season and you came back saying he didn't play to first round pick levels but he did.

I never changed my line at all but you accused me of doing just that.

Cop on.

eagle eye

Cam Newton cut. The Mac Jones era begins now.

ciantheod

Well Cam Newton just got sacked by BB , Mac Jones QB#1

Shedite27

The only way Cam got released is because Mac Jones is looking very promising. Very happy with that

DJ_Eoghan

Wow, I mean great for Mac, but still shocked Cam is gone. Who's the backup now, assume it's Hoyer unless they've someone on the way in, because Hoyer is more of a known commodity than Stidham? Also, not sure if I'm reading Spotrac right, but Cam had a cap hit of $8M, with $3.6M in dead money. Therefore, should be generating a $4.4M saving on the cap. With Gilmore gone to PUP, and thus not eligible until week 7, I wonder is there a roughly €11M cornerback coming available on the trade market (I'm assuming Gilmore gets traded with $8M dead money versus $16M cap hit).

DBIreland

Hoyer now released!

Mr. Guappa

Looks like Quinn Nordin has won the kicking job too.

Of the other cuts announced so far, DB Myles Bryant was the most surprising (apart from Cam)... He seemed to make the 53 in most of the predictions I'd read.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hoyer back once we've made other moves.

AbusesToilets

I'm happy with Nordin getting the gift, I think he has a ton of potential.

Mr. Guappa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117838372#Comment_117838372

Yeah, if they think he has a chance to be a long-term answer at the position then it's a move worth making. Folk has come back on the practice squad anyway, as insurance. We've added QB Garrett Gilbert to the practice squad as well.

eagle eye

Harry gone to IR but it's not season ending.

Nordin definitely has talent, it's about if he can handle the pressure, if he can I think he'll be a great one.

paulie21

Sad news that David Patten has died in a motorcycle accident aged 47

el Fenomeno

Bit of a car crash interview from Cam today on his release.

First of all, doing an interview about why you were released is questionable in itself. This wasn't some falling out that left unanswered questions, or a superstar QB leaving a team he's become associated with. It's an average NFL QB being cut after a poor season. Shock horror, don't exactly need a sit down interview for that.

But he says Mac Jones didn't beat him out, he was cut because of his "aura" and he would be a distraction, and then his father - the interviewer - is insinuating that it's a race issue as to why he was cut.

Not sure how many suitors he had anyway, but I imagine it's a smaller list now than it was when he woke up this morning.

eagle eye

That's a very stupid thing to do. No chance he gets another job after that, nobody will want to touch him now.

I had huge respect fur the man but between his anti-vax stance and that I've lost all the respect I had for him.

eagle eye

Starting to get nervous now. Huge first game against division rivals and with our rookie QB getting his first exposure to real action.

I really believe that Jones could be very special and I'm also thinking that Rhamondre Stevenson could be very special.

The thing I'm confident about is our D, I think it's probably the most talented group we've had in a long time.

Shedite27

Shaky first quarter, very new look team.

Miami's first drive looked fantastic

el Fenomeno

Tough loss. Boneheaded fumble by Harris, that really cost us. Michel was a relatively safe pair of hands, we could miss him this season.

Sloppy penalties, individual mistakes and absolute no ability whatsoever to defend quick slants is what undid us.

Offence looked solid but not spectacular. Mac was good - very efficient performance.

Tom1991

Fumbles killed us badly and poor discipline.Bright side is mac was excellent and played to his limits and was brave at times.

our D is a worry I think at corner/safety we’re gonna be badly burned over the top at times it’s really a boom or bust scenario for us either getting sacks and pressure.

eagle eye

Very disappointed by Harris and Stevenson.

D didn't get there enough either. Gutted.

Christy42

What is going on?

Your D played great. Keeping an opposing offense to 17 points is a good performance by a defense. No other team won with 17 or less. They seem like a strong unit that will win a few games.

Harris had his fumble at the end which cost an important 3 points but I am not sure Michel gets those yards early in the game to get those earlier field goals so swings and roundabouts.

Mac was fine. Calm under pressure. 7.2 on avg and 1 TD is not anything to write home about but it was his first outing and he will likely get better. He kept the ball safe.

AbusesToilets

I'm concerned that we're lacking in an ability to beat man coverage consistently. Not sure why McDaniels was so slow to get Smith and Henry involved in the passing game.

Mr. Guappa

Plenty of reasons to be optimistic despite the loss. Hopefully the Trent Brown injury is not serious.

eagle eye

Mac Jones Day d well in his presser.

https://www.patriots.com/news/notebook-jones-henry-look-to-make-strides-vs-jets

Mr. Guappa

Trent Brown ruled out of the Jets game. I'd expect Yasir Durant to get the start ahead of Herron based on last week.

BizzyC

Overall a decent performance yesterday, but I'm a bit concerned by the number of FGs we're kicking.

A better team would have scored 35+ points on the Jets, it seems like we cant keep Mac upright long enough for deep balls to become available. I expected better from this Oline than we're seeing right now.

Christy42

The offensive line was fine. On a few plays the defense got a win which happens to any line. They seemed to hold up a few blitzes and on at least one of the sacks they brought more men than the line had at which point it is on Mac to either dodge the last guy or get it out on time. Mac will also make the line worse on any play he doesn't get it out immediately. No one is going to try and contain or act as a spy on Mac Jones and the defense tends to know where he is going to be before any particular play. He should be fast enough for boot action or nakeds which could help with that.

The above sounds pretty negative but they are not massive issues either. Mac is not a gunslinger and will check it down as soon as he can which will lead to less turnovers but more field goals. He will likely learn in training what he can and can't get away with in training and start pushing the ball down more but it is a better flaw to have than pushing for interceptions.

I don't get why Pats fans seem so determined to not mention any flaw that Mac has? He has played well but it is also possible to admit he has flaws. Maybe I have spent too much time on reddit.

Shedite27

4 interceptions by Jets, they basically handed us that on a plate

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117914226#Comment_117914226

On that trick play, commentator said he had Agholor open for a walk in TD, but chose to check it down. Early days yet, but the offenses is really struggling to generate scores through the air. Henry looks really slow too. Not sure if he has always been like that.

BizzyC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117914226#Comment_117914226

Mac has mentioned that he needs to push the ball downfield more, but I don't see how he can currently.

So many of his passes are check-downs just before the rush gets to him. I think he's doing a great job right now of getting the ball out, avoiding sacks and keeping to positive plays.

If we compare Mac & Daniel Jones so far (Same number of pass attempts, similar number of times blitzed)

Mac has held the ball an average of 1.2 seconds per pass attempt, been blitzed 21 times, hit 8 times, has 74% completion.

Daniel has held the ball an average of 2.5 seconds, been blitzed 24 times, hit just twice and has a 63% completion rate.

Mac has been hit more than any QB in the league through the 2 games so far, but it's not because he's holding the ball longer or that he's being heavily blitzed compared to other QBs. The numbers show, our O-line is allowing him to be hit too often.

eagle eye

What I'm seeing right now reminds me of when Brady became the starter, more game management than risk taking.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117915656#Comment_117915656

The QB school has a video showing a few plays vs the Dolphins Mac turned down bigger shots (but concluded he played well overall). Out of curiosity where are you getting those stats as I would be interested in them.

For the Giants that stat will also include Daniel dodging the rush a lot and teams will also have to ensure that he can't simply run around the rush for a big gain. For whatever his flaws are at QB, Daniel Jones is quick. However it is also possible that Mac getting the ball out quick is fooling my eye a bit so more stats is always a good thing.

BizzyC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117916113#Comment_117916113

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing_advanced.htm

Even if you take Daniel Jones out, look at Dak and Carr.

Both of them have made more pass attempts, blitzed the same amount or more and have been hit less.

I think Mac has missed a few deep shots, but I think he needs to get hit less before he'll be willing to take some time for the bigger plays.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117918236#Comment_117918236

Thank you for the link, it will crumble my productivity!

Those have a bit more from their line alright. Definitely Dak. Carr has managed to get a decent few hurries instead of hits however he has done it. He has also been sacked more. Whether that is down to Mac's pocket awareness or Carr not taking a chance on a ball being knocked off target I am unsure.

In overall terms Mac has been pressured (hits, hurries and sacks) 19.2% of drop backs (attempts, sacks and unplanned scrambles) with a league average of about 16.5%. That is about 10th worst in the league so not great. However he has been blitzed 28.8% of the time with a league average of about 16% again. That is about 3rd in the league. That blitz % will come down and is largely Miami like to blitz a lot. Averages calculated by removing most of the nonsense lines like Justin Jefferson throwing once.

That says to me the line has had a lot thrown at it but has held up reasonably well. Maybe not top 5 as I had expected but still seems like a good unit.

StringerBell

I'm tentatively encouraged by the first two outings. We need to start turning the drives into TD's more than fgs because it will always just allow teams to hang around but more so the performance against the dolphins I guess than jets, for a rookie qb coming in and finding his feet to a team that tends to get better as the season goes on I am happy enough with what we have seen so far.

el Fenomeno

The offensive line is absolutely horrendous again.

el Fenomeno

Next week could get very, very ugly.