Is the global economy on the verge of the biggest collapse ever?

Jimmy Garlic

If the Baltic Dry Index is anything to go by then things are looking very bleak. It stands at 394 today and it is consistently falling every single day. It stood at 11000 just before the 2008 crash. The more I look into things the more ominous the picture becomes...

The foreign media bring a deplorable fact: transatlantic transportation stopped almost completely and virtually now.
According to foreign media reports, the current location of all ships in the Atlantic shows that currently they are grouped around the coastlines of different continents. The central part of the Atlantic ocean is free from the vessels.


In confirmation of these words the media bring the data of websites marinetraffic.com, superstation95.com, yournewswire.com. According to their data, for the first time in known history no one cargo ship crosses the North Atlantic between Europe and North America. They are all either offshore or in port. Nothing is moving.

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/transatlantic-shipping-stops/

MilesMorales1

Is there anything to be said for another mass?

SEPT 23 1989

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

If the Baltic Dry Index is anything to go by then things are looking very bleak. It stands at 394 today and it is consistently falling every single day. It stood at 11000 just before the 2008 crash. The more I look into things the more ominous the picture becomes...




http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/transatlantic-shipping-stops/

Didn't think things were so bad

Menas

MilesMorales1 wrote: »

Is there anything to be said for another mass?

Another thread may help.

Amirani

Probably not.

kneemos

It's quiet.





Too quiet.

melissak

I'd say the biggest ever might turn out to be an overstatement.

Jimmy Garlic

Amirani wrote: »

Probably not.

RBS are telling their clients to dump everything except bonds..

In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists

desertcircus

1. Snopes has already produced a debunking of the "no shipping at all" panic.

2. A prize for the OP if they can explain in three sentences what the relationship between the Baltic Dry index and the global economy actually is.

Corpus Twisty

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

If the Baltic Dry Index is anything to go by then things are looking very bleak. It stands at 394 today and it is consistently falling every single day. It stood at 11000 just before the 2008 crash. The more I look into things the more ominous the picture becomes...



http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/transatlantic-shipping-stops/

A glance at the Road Freight industry, the exports side especially, shows record numbers of trailers parked up in ireland...not turning a wheel. Which is never, ever, a good sign...the huge drop in the price of a barrel of crude isn't likley to be down to pure politics either...crap demand is another factor there....

Sheeps

Its happening tomorrow. Tomorrow is the day the world economy will cease to exist. All the wealth will disappear. Gone forever.

Harry Palmr

Corpus Twisty wrote: »

A glance at the Road Freight industry, the exports side especially, shows record numbers of trailers parked up in ireland...not turning a wheel. Which is never, ever, a good sign...

Probably on a boat...that isn't moving...;)

Amirani

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

RBS are telling their clients to dump everything except bonds..

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists

Yeah, read that a few days ago - I am an RBS derivative and fixed income client :P

While there's certainly something to be said for being risk-averse in the current environment, particularly with respect to emerging markets, I don't really see them causing "the biggest collapse ever". Europe and North America are reasonably well insulated against large corrections in emerging markets. I'd be a bit more weary about commodities and the likes of Australia.

Jimmy Garlic

desertcircus wrote: »

prize for the OP if they can explain in three sentences what the relationship between the Baltic Dry index and the global economy actually is.

It is a difficult to manipulate real-time indicator that reflects global demand for commodities and raw materials. It increases in value as demand for commodities and raw goods increases, and decreases in value as demand for commodities and raw goods decreases.

kneemos

The economists will tell us nothing is going to happen and then tell us what happened when it does.

Duckworth_Luas

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

RBS are telling their clients to dump everything except bonds.

My girlfriend works for RBS. She just sent me a text message.


Fat bitch!

darkpagandeath

Fastest growing economy in the EZ Rar rar.

mad muffin

The global economy is such a fûcking con. It's designed to make the rich richer and the rest poorer.

This boom and bust cycle with the rich coming back even richer and the rest of us pay for it. :rolleyes:

Jimmy Garlic

mad muffin wrote: »

The global economy is such a fûcking con. It's designed to make the rich richer and the rest poorer.

This boom and bust cycle with the rich coming back even richer and the rest of us pay for it. :rolleyes:

The big bank boys who always win call it a ''haircut'', but what they really mean is they are fleecing the public. Wealth isn't disappearing, it is concentrating into fewer and fewer hands.

mad muffin

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

The big bank boys who always win call it a ''haircut'', but what they really mean is they are fleecing the public. Wealth isn't disappearing, it is concentrating into fewer and fewer hands.

Pretty much.

You appear as honorable man yet attempt to slip cock in ass. -Batiatus

deathtocaptcha

The value of things could go up or they could go down. What unprecedented and unpredictable times we live in...

TallGlass

I don't care about the rich getting richer to be honest, and I don't like working my arse off for hardly anything either.

But what really gets to me is how mean spirited and tight these people are, they won't give anything back and it's an absolute drain on society.

Take for example the Amazon owner he is worth 40 billion euros, he could spend 2 billion on making Amazon a great place to work and pay low paid workers an excellent wage not seen for there jobs. Everyone would be happy, and you know what? He would be still worth 38 billion and I would put money on it, if the staff are happy and know there paid well then you'll recoup that money in performance.

KomradeBishop

Basically, China's economy is - for the most part - very opaque, people can't get a good read on its health, but it's been very skitterish for a long time now (looking like it's at the 'frothing' stage of a bubble ready to pop).

Now that it's finally popping, nobody knows how bad the results are going to be (opaque), which means everyone in the financial markets is running around with skidmarks, trying to dump all assets likely to be affected - i.e. all of them.

Volatility like this is a dream for financial market participants ready to take advantage of it, and a lot of vested interests are going to do the absolute best they can, to stoke fear and scaremongering in the media and markets, in order to make the market swings as big as possible - so if you're reading from any financial outlets with a vested interest in this, you're probably reading bullshít designed to scare.


That's just short-term in the markets though; medium/long-term, this means China's economy is about to slow down significantly (unless they do what nobody else did: a massive stimulus. Possible, given that they are pretty much a command-economy, without the NeoLiberal/Austerity ideological baggage of 'the west') - and because China is so big, this means an economic slowdown for the whole world.

Enter deflation: Central banks like the Fed and ECB have been trying to avoid deflation, by using QE - and this has failed massively, with ever-diminishing returns - and now the slowdown from China, is going to permanently dip western economies into deflation (unless they do the so-far-unspeakable step, of ditching austerity and engaging in a massive stimulus).

Permanent deflation means ever-increasing wealth/income inequality, which is going to skyrocket and become a permanent part of our economies/societies, and the influence over politics granted by this power, is going to pose an ever-greater threat to democracy itself.

The only way out that's left now, for avoiding that, is a massive stimulus through public funding - something that still seems to remain unspeakable, up to now.

Corpus Twisty

TallGlass wrote: »

I don't care about the rich getting richer to be honest, and I don't like working my arse off for hardly anything either.

But what really gets to me is how mean spirited and tight these people are, they won't give anything back and it's an absolute drain on society.

Take for example the Amazon owner he is worth 40 billion euros, he could spend 2 billion on making Amazon a great place to work and pay low paid workers an excellent wage not seen for there jobs. Everyone would be happy, and you know what? He would be still worth 38 billion and I would put money on it, if the staff are happy and know there paid well then you'll recoup that money in performance.

Blimey. Amazon has actually started making money?? I thought they lost their ar5e year after year, but were constantly propped up with new funding, in the hope some day they would be the last one standing.

Atlantic Dawn

2 minute look on Marinetraffic...
Rio Blackwater - On route from Halifax Canada to Cagliari Italy
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:757458/zoom:10

Charleston Express - On route from Southampton UK to Charleston US
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:439001/zoom:10

Bog standard AIS only works based on land based receivers so it will never show ships mid atlantic.

LETHAL LADY

I studied finance and tbh I'd still recommend to hide all your money in a mattress.

nyarlothothep

KomradeBishop wrote: »

Basically, China's economy is - for the most part - very opaque, people can't get a good read on its health, but it's been very skitterish for a long time now (looking like it's at the 'frothing' stage of a bubble ready to pop).

Now that it's finally popping, nobody knows how bad the results are going to be (opaque), which means everyone in the financial markets is running around with skidmarks, trying to dump all assets likely to be affected - i.e. all of them.

Volatility like this is a dream for financial market participants ready to take advantage of it, and a lot of vested interests are going to do the absolute best they can, to stoke fear and scaremongering in the media and markets, in order to make the market swings as big as possible - so if you're reading from any financial outlets with a vested interest in this, you're probably reading bullshít designed to scare.


That's just short-term in the markets though; medium/long-term, this means China's economy is about to slow down significantly (unless they do what nobody else did: a massive stimulus. Possible, given that they are pretty much a command-economy, without the NeoLiberal/Austerity ideological baggage of 'the west') - and because China is so big, this means an economic slowdown for the whole world.

Enter deflation: Central banks like the Fed and ECB have been trying to avoid deflation, by using QE - and this has failed massively, with ever-diminishing returns - and now the slowdown from China, is going to permanently dip western economies into deflation (unless they do the so-far-unspeakable step, of ditching austerity and engaging in a massive stimulus).

Permanent deflation means ever-increasing wealth/income inequality, which is going to skyrocket and become a permanent part of our economies/societies, and the influence over politics granted by this power, is going to pose an ever-greater threat to democracy itself.

The only way out that's left now, for avoiding that, is a massive stimulus through public funding - something that still seems to remain unspeakable, up to now.

The conspiracy theorist in me thinks this is all part of the plan, democratic institutions are irritations for the world's elite, irc American industrialists attempted a fascist coup in the early twentieth century. So it's a win win, we already have surveillance as a permanent part of our societies, why not virtual tyranny?

Palbear

I spent a very long time trading financial markets and
when I say a long time, it was many years.

What I learned.
There is no magic ball. Nobody knows what happens next.

But there is a balance of probability. And that is always your best bet.

As for stock market crashes.......... they can happen anytime.
and they do. Irrational events.

My view : don't hold equities now. Global QE is a new dimension.
An abundance of liquidity trying to find a home for yield
is not a valid reason for stock market appreciation.
For no good reason I don't feel comfortable.
Nor would I hold dollars either. Too many in circulation and
over valued.

But I may be wrong

Sterling looks vulnerable.
Brexit will be a market issue.
maybe.

madmaggie

But we're alright, we have Enda.......

TallGlass

Corpus Twisty wrote: »

Blimey. Amazon has actually started making money?? I thought they lost their ar5e year after year, but were constantly propped up with new funding, in the hope some day they would be the last one standing.

Could you expand a little on not making money? I haven't looked at Amazons profits or losses, I know the owner is worth 40 billion last time I checked. I also don't think they are short on cash, seen as they are looking at heading into the air freight business and logistic solution area with the spending on leasing out Boeing aircraft to stop delays in supply chain to customers.

kneemos

TallGlass wrote: »

Could you expand a little on not making money? I haven't looked at Amazons profits or losses, I know the owner is worth 40 billion last time I checked. I also don't think they are short on cash, seen as they are looking at heading into the air freight business and logistic solution area with the spending on leasing out Boeing aircraft to stop delays in supply chain to customers.

Forty billion in assets.Should he close down a sector of his empire to give Amazon workers a nicer canteen?

StewartGriffin

madmaggie wrote: »

But we're alright, we have Enda.......

Who would you prefer? Joan? Gerry? Michaaul? Lucinda?

In the event of another crash I think Enda would be the best of a bad lot.

Disgruntled Badger

Yes. But not for a wee while. There's time for a pint or two yet

SafeSurfer

StewartGriffin wrote: »

Who would you prefer? Joan? Gerry? Michaaul? Lucinda?

In the event of another crash I think Enda would be the best of a bad lot.

Yes it would probably be best to have a leader who follows in that situation.

Corpus Twisty

TallGlass wrote: »

Could you expand a little on not making money? I haven't looked at Amazons profits or losses, I know the owner is worth 40 billion last time I checked. I also don't think they are short on cash, seen as they are looking at heading into the air freight business and logistic solution area with the spending on leasing out Boeing aircraft to stop delays in supply chain to customers.

Not making money, as in no profit to show. Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity, as someone once said. Amazon have great turnover..

laugh

Corpus Twisty wrote: »

Not making money, as in no profit to show. Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity, as someone once said. Amazon have great turnover..

They are reinvesting massively, billions in infrastructure for AWS for example.

Austria!

If we do have a collapse, will we be able to rectify it? We can't cut interest rates, and we've already thrown loads of money into QE. It seems like the "solutions" to 2008 are no longer viable. Or am I wrong?

Corpus Twisty

laugh wrote: »

They are reinvesting massively, billions in infrastructure for AWS for example.

And posted a profit for q2 2015... but then again, that was what I originally said - they just keep building it bigger, with massive investment, till they're the last one standing and have a virtual monopoly.

jam_mac_jam

TallGlass wrote: »

Could you expand a little on not making money? I haven't looked at Amazons profits or losses, I know the owner is worth 40 billion last time I checked. I also don't think they are short on cash, seen as they are looking at heading into the air freight business and logistic solution area with the spending on leasing out Boeing aircraft to stop delays in supply chain to customers.

he is not the owner. He is the founder. The shareholder s own it he only owns a portion of it

It's OK. I've been stocking up on bullets, bottle caps, and cigarettes, because if TV and playing video games have taught me anything, at least one of these will be currency.

desertcircus

You want to know the most worrying fact about the world economy?

Twitter is valued at over ten billion dollars despite not once turning a profit in its ten-year existence. And it's not the only one. Billions in investment has been pumped into vast numbers of speculative startups with no real plan for becoming profitable, and unless they all magically find a way to do it at once, massive chunks of that money will go up in flames. Everyone knows it's a bubble: they also know, though, that deposit rates are zero, so investments are heavily oversubscribed, and they're all hoping they've picked the next Facebook or Google.

Akrasia

The global economy will be grand. Read the book 'Abundance' by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler

There are over 7 billion people on this world, every one of us needs food, shelter, clothes, transport, and consumable items.

New technologies will unlock the potential of billions of under resourced people.

In the next few decades, cheap renewable electricity, cheap and extremely powerful electronics and communications technology, cheap and renewable methods of irrigating land and converting sea water into potable water revolutionary new materials like graphene will enable better batteries, better and cheaper solar panels...

Biotechnology research will improve the nutritional content, and reduce the land and resource requirements for farming and food processing...

Our technology is advancing exponentially. The technology we have today will seem primitive in 30 years

The problems in the global economy will be more related to how wealth is distributed and political instability than any lack of productivity or demand. We do need new economics to deal with a world where automation removes much of the menial work, and information technology requires fewer and fewer employees per unit of production.

The biggest risk is that wealth is hoarded and these oligarchs suppress the economy and limit the ability of the world to take advantage of the new technologies that we are creating, but fortunately, the greed and small mindedness of the old style billionaires can be counter acted by a handful of philanthropic billionaires who dedicate their resources to solving global problems.

SafeSurfer

Akrasia wrote: »

The global economy will be grand. Read the book 'Abundance' by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler

There are over 7 billion people on this world, every one of us needs food, shelter, clothes, transport, and consumable items.

New technologies will unlock the potential of billions of under resourced people.

In the next few decades, cheap renewable electricity, cheap and extremely powerful electronics and communications technology, cheap and renewable methods of irrigating land and converting sea water into potable water revolutionary new materials like graphene will enable better batteries, better and cheaper solar panels...

Biotechnology research will improve the nutritional content, and reduce the land and resource requirements for farming and food processing...

Our technology is advancing exponentially. The technology we have today will seem primitive in 30 years

The problems in the global economy will be more related to how wealth is distributed and political instability than any lack of productivity or demand. We do need new economics to deal with a world where automation removes much of the menial work, and information technology requires fewer and fewer employees per unit of production.

The biggest risk is that wealth is hoarded and these oligarchs suppress the economy and limit the ability of the world to take advantage of the new technologies that we are creating, but fortunately, the greed and small mindedness of the old style billionaires can be counter acted by a handful of philanthropic billionaires who dedicate their resources to solving global problems.

The world population could exceed 10 billion by the end of the century. Technological advances will also mean lower infant mortality and increased life expectancy. Living well over a century will not be unusual, if you can afford to. That alone will have major societal implications. Older societies tend to be much more conservative. Life saving or life extending treatments will only be available to those who can afford them. National health services will simply be unable to fund these treatments so we could have huge health as well as wealth inequality. I have listened to predictions of imminent technological advances which would secure the future of mankind since I used to watch tomorrows world as a kid. In some respects we have taken retrograde steps such as supersonic passenger flights, rail and tram services etc. For generations families could be quite well off with one breadwinner. Now to fuel "growth" both parents must work while childcare is farmed out to strangers. Is this development? Globally personal debt is at record levels. One hundred years ago people were wildly optimistic about the 20th century. Because of globalisation and interdependence many thought war had become inconceivable. Look how that century turned out.

SEPT 23 1989

Corpus Twisty wrote: »

Not making money, as in no profit to show. Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity, as someone once said. Amazon have great turnover..

big turnover+no profit=busy fools

cowboyBuilder

TallGlass wrote: »

I don't care about the rich getting richer to be honest, and I don't like working my arse off for hardly anything either.

But what really gets to me is how mean spirited and tight these people are, they won't give anything back and it's an absolute drain on society.

Take for example the Amazon owner he is worth 40 billion euros, he could spend 2 billion on making Amazon a great place to work and pay low paid workers an excellent wage not seen for there jobs. Everyone would be happy, and you know what? He would be still worth 38 billion and I would put money on it, if the staff are happy and know there paid well then you'll recoup that money in performance.

Yes but people like these guys, Bezos, Zuckerberg, Steve Jobs etc are greedy sociopathic pigs, they don't care about anyone else - really.

Akrasia

SafeSurfer wrote: »

The world population could exceed 10 billion by the end of the century. Technological advances will also mean lower infant mortality and increased life expectancy. Living well over a century will not be unusual, if you can afford to. That alone will have major societal implications. Older societies tend to be much more conservative. Life saving or life extending treatments will only be available to those who can afford them. National health services will simply be unable to fund these treatments so we could have huge health as well as wealth inequality. I have listened to predictions of imminent technological advances which would secure the future of mankind since I used to watch tomorrows world as a kid. In some respects we have taken retrograde steps such as supersonic passenger flights, rail and tram services etc. For generations families could be quite well off with one breadwinner. Now to fuel "growth" both parents must work while childcare is farmed out to strangers. Is this development? Globally personal debt is at record levels. One hundred years ago people were wildly optimistic about the 20th century. Because of globalisation and interdependence many thought war had become inconceivable. Look how that century turned out.

The word can support a population of 10/11 billion and most projections on population rises project that the rapid growth in human population will continue to slow down towards the end of the century (it's already slowing down since the peak in the 1960s) subject to the assumption that women will have access to education, and contraception, and that infant mortality does indeed continue to decline.

Technology has and continues to dramatically increase the quality of life of ordinary people all around the world.

With internet access improving and computers getting cheaper and cheaper, educational opportunities will balloon. Children from rural parts of developing countries could have access to on-line courses on a huge range of subjects delivered by teachers far more qualified than anyone in their village...

Medical technology will continue to improve on the high end of medical science, but also on the lower end. Diagnostics tests will become cheaper and faster, as more medicines go off patent, access to these medicines will become affordable to the worlds poor, and information technology will give rural patients access to doctors via virtual consultations

http://www.virtualdoctors.org/?gclid=CjwKEAiAzuK0BRCW4tiLpJT-8TISJADV8cw9uf3jgfJgUBgbPwhyAv6fmB_n_iD6MKt7njtk7jKCIxoCHaDw_wcB#home

Eugene Norman

Palbear wrote: »

I spent a very long time trading financial markets and
when I say a long time, it was many years.

What I learned.
There is no magic ball. Nobody knows what happens next.

But there is a balance of probability. And that is always your best bet.

As for stock market crashes.......... they can happen anytime.
and they do. Irrational events.

My view : don't hold equities now. Global QE is a new dimension.
An abundance of liquidity trying to find a home for yield
is not a valid reason for stock market appreciation.
For no good reason I don't feel comfortable.
Nor would I hold dollars either. Too many in circulation and
over valued.

But I may be wrong

Sterling looks vulnerable.
Brexit will be a market issue.
maybe.

Err, thanks.

Eugene Norman

Akrasia wrote: »

The global economy will be grand. Read the book 'Abundance' by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler

There are over 7 billion people on this world, every one of us needs food, shelter, clothes, transport, and consumable items.

New technologies will unlock the potential of billions of under resourced people.

In the next few decades, cheap renewable electricity, cheap and extremely powerful electronics and communications technology, cheap and renewable methods of irrigating land and converting sea water into potable water revolutionary new materials like graphene will enable better batteries, better and cheaper solar panels...

Biotechnology research will improve the nutritional content, and reduce the land and resource requirements for farming and food processing...

Our technology is advancing exponentially. The technology we have today will seem primitive in 30 years

The problems in the global economy will be more related to how wealth is distributed and political instability than any lack of productivity or demand. We do need new economics to deal with a world where automation removes much of the menial work, and information technology requires fewer and fewer employees per unit of production.

The biggest risk is that wealth is hoarded and these oligarchs suppress the economy and limit the ability of the world to take advantage of the new technologies that we are creating, but fortunately, the greed and small mindedness of the old style billionaires can be counter acted by a handful of philanthropic billionaires who dedicate their resources to solving global problems.

Technology is really slowing down. And while the world has great potential it needs more equality to realise it, by equality I mean not Marxism but higher average wages.

Eugene Norman

Back to the Baltic dry index. It's the cost of hiring ships effectively. If it collapses it indicates an existing - not a future - drop in world trade.

It is however very inelastic, that is if the demand is greater than the number of ships (say demand = 100 and ships = 99) it rises strongly and if the opposite (ships = 100 and demand = 99) it falls precipitously. Because it takes a long time to build a ship.

However Wednesday was the worst day ever. Ever. That's bad news.

cbyrd

I'll be OK.. I've been saving in silver.. Bullion and collector coins.. Paper money is useless, especially in your mattress.. makes it lumpy.. The silver is smoother and makes for a good orthopaedic feel..

Magico Gonzalez

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

RBS are telling their clients to dump everything except bonds..



http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists

...after which RBS will buy all those assets for dirt cheap prices and make a tidy profit.

RBS & Investment banking have a somewhat chequered past you realise.

All the same it looks like a turbulent yr economically speaking.