Is the global economy on the verge of the biggest collapse ever?

KingBrian2

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Many reports from media are showing that some parts of the world are in desperate need of emergency aid as food shortage has taken place.

This is sadly true, but none of these starvation events are to do with the whether the current economic cycle is about to go south. They're usually down to conflict, local overpopulation or adverse weather
The economic issues that we face are mainly "balance sheet" issues as opposed to actual starvation issues in this country.

madmaggie

StewartGriffin wrote: »

Who would you prefer? Joan? Gerry? Michaaul? Lucinda?

In the event of another crash I think Enda would be the best of a bad lot.

I was being sarcastic, not making a political point :pac:

Eugene Norman

Sh1tbag OToole wrote: »

The thing with not being able to import from China anymore is you have a larger buffer time to get your ducks in a row before the sh1t really hits the fan. If some country you depended on for food stopped exporting to you you'd have two weeks at the most to get your ducks in a row and food takes longer to grow than that.

It would take a few years but the manufacturing could move elsewhere. Although I don't see why China's domestic debt is going to stop them exporting.

Eugene Norman

Eugene Norman wrote: »

It would take a few years but the manufacturing could move elsewhere. Although I don't see why China's domestic debt is going to stop them exporting.

Currently, the price of Chinese made products is at an all time low, it is as if they're going fat out to sell at any price they can get right now. I saw a programme recently about Chinese steel makers and they are still in full production, despite the fact that they are stockpiling finished stock that is simply not selling. The point is that they would rather continue to keep the people working than have them out on the streets rioting!

Chinese manufacturing capacity has grown faster than global consumers can consume.

KomradeBishop

In a world where worldwide Aggregate Demand has diminished, and where all countries are competing (in 'beggar thy neighbour' fashion) on exports, it's a losing game to try and keep the Chinese economy afloat on exports.

What China might do, is shift to domestic consumption instead of foreign consumption (exports) - this would be an unprecedented (in modern times) shift for the Chinese economy though, but would substantially raise their quality of life (depending on where that's distributed, e.g. maybe will only end up in cities) - while also keeping demand high in the rest of the world (for the materials imported to China, to fuel this rise in domestic economic effort).

Baggy Trousers

Deleted User wrote: »

In a word NO, but we are most certainly in for a slowdown!

Much of the growth over the past few years can be attributed to the QE money printing scheme, that has now ended and the lift that it gave to the economy had cooled down.

Gotcha thanks. Makes sense alright. I will look forward to another soft landing so.

Capt'n Midnight

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

Porto Rico defaulted recently

Little waves get much bigger as they reach the shore

No Taxation without Representation. :mad:
Porto Rico has about the same rights as the colonies did back in the British Empire. So pretty much no leeway on sorting things out.

Porto Rico has been refinancing and issuing new debt for old since the 1970's so not exactly a new problem.

Capt'n Midnight

On the whole feed the population thing. We can fix nitrogen from the atmosphere. ICI used to have a large vat down the docks in Liverpool that could grow as much microbial protein "Pruteen" as an area the size of Wales covered in Soya.

The only limiting factor was the cost of the natural gas the microbes fed on.



It's a truism that there's never been a famine in a functioning democracy. And even then most recent famines aren't due to a lack of food, just that local people can't afford it.

Forget the images of aircraft dropping bags of food. Each C130 only carries as much as a heavily loaded truck. And you could probably buy that truck for the overall mission cost of getting that C130 from Europe and back. Recent food shortages in remote parts of Kenya were sorted by simply sending mobile phone top-ups. People could then buy food locally unlike the expensive air drops which destabilise local food markets.

So we're most of the way to a time when we don't have to worry about starvation as a result of an economic collapse. Last month we got 39% of our electricity from renewables so less fossil fuel imports means less shipping.

C.K Dexter Haven

Deleted User wrote: »

Currently, the price of Chinese made products is at an all time low, it is as if they're going fat out to sell at any price they can get right now. I saw a programme recently about Chinese steel makers and they are still in full production, despite the fact that they are stockpiling finished stock that is simply not selling. The point is that they would rather continue to keep the people working than have them out on the streets rioting!

Chinese manufacturing capacity has grown faster than global consumers can consume.

And also, they've been building cities left right and centre throughout China that nobody wants- it's simply to keep the workforce doing something- it's certainly a bubble that's been growing now for a number of years and maybe it's ready to burst.

Baggy Trousers

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Gotcha thanks. Makes sense alright. I will look forward to another soft landing so.

In an Irish context, the take off after the last recession wasn't that great, so a soft landing is quite likely as we're not flying that high to start with.

China on the other hand looks like it's in for a hard crash landing.

Eugene Norman

KomradeBishop wrote: »

In a world where worldwide Aggregate Demand has diminished, and where all countries are competing (in 'beggar thy neighbour' fashion) on exports, it's a losing game to try and keep the Chinese economy afloat on exports.

What China might do, is shift to domestic consumption instead of foreign consumption (exports) - this would be an unprecedented (in modern times) shift for the Chinese economy though, but would substantially raise their quality of life (depending on where that's distributed, e.g. maybe will only end up in cities) - while also keeping demand high in the rest of the world (for the materials imported to China, to fuel this rise in domestic economic effort).

I think they are trying to do that. Apparently you need - in another blow to right wing economics ideas - a strong social welfare system to get people to spend. People need to believe that they are covered in event of illness, old age or temporary unemployment or else they will save. Or buy houses. Or stock.