February 2016 Boards forecast contest (enter by 1st 0300h)

M.T. Cranium

I have been having some problems fully connecting with boards.ie this week, hoping this will show up in a legible form ...

IMPORTANT NOTICE -- As discussed we are moving to a more rigorous contest deadline that takes place before the month really gets going (no free peeks at the data for the first now). This month will introduce the equivalent of the cold water reaching the mid-section ... enter by 0300h on Monday 1st Feb, will set the exact penalties when I get a better handle on how many people are having troubles with boards connection but for now will say probably 1% every 3 hours to 1500h 2nd then something more severe like 1% an hour.

The contest will require the usual five elements and one bonus question as follows:

1. Predict the IMT for the usual five stations, February normals are around 5.3 C.

2. Predict the MAX temp for any station.

3. Predict the MIN temp for any station.

4. Predict the precipitation (PRC) as percentage of normal for the eleven stations normally used.

5. Predict the sunshine (SUN) as percentage of normal for the six stations normally used.

6. BONUS -- Predict the highest temperature in Ireland on Sunday 14th (Valentines' Day) and where that will occur.

Good luck. If anyone can read this but can't post, then send me an e-mail:

podismtc@gmail.com

and I'll be happy to post it for you.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen_______ 4.9 __ 13.8 __ -12.2 __ 63 __ 114 ____ 8.5 - Valentia Observatory

I'm really taking the risk for the minimum temperature!

pauldry

Pauldry_______ 5.2__ 13.5__ -5.1 __ 109 __ 110____ 11- Sherkin



Use your phone to enter

Its beta than pc.

Bsal

Bsal_______ 5.1__ 14.6__ -4.4 __ 115 __ 111____ 11.4 - Sherkin

Timmyboy

Timmyboy_______ 4.9__ 16.4__ -6.3 __ 88 __ 104____ 13.9-Cork Airport

:rolleyes: Just wondering about that maximum temperature prediction...

kindredspirit

kindredspirit____6.6____15.7___-4___121___91_____11.6____Sherkin Island.

sunflower3

Sunflower3_______ 5.0__ 13.2__ -6.1 __ 95 __ 90____ 9.5___ Valentia

John mac

JOhn mac_______ 5.5__ 13.7__ -3.1 __ 120 __ 90____ 10.1__shannon

Schadenfreudia

Schadenfreudia 5.0__ 13.0__ -5.1 __ 115 __ 100____ 9.2__Valentia

dasa29

Dasa29_______ 5.3__ 14.5__ -4.0 __ 115 __ 90____ 11.0___ Valentia

Joe Public

Joe Public______4.5__ 15.9__ -5.9 __ 89 __ 109___ 9.9 Sherkin

DOCARCH

DOCARCH______4.9__ 14.8__ -4.2 __ 110 __ 92___ 10.0 Valentia

200motels

200motels__________ 5.3__ 14.6__ -4.9 __ 111 __ 112____ 11.5- Sherkin

lostinashford

Lostinashford_______ 5.1__ 14.3__ -4.3 __ 112 __ 104____ 10 Shannon

Tae laidir

Tae laidir_______ 5.6__ 13.8__ -5.7 __ 118 __ 104____ 11.1 Sherkin

waterways

Oh dear, hope I get it right to post. This 1986 outfit is so awful! Makes me feel old and discriminated. Thought for a few minutes that my old C64 and Courier12 is back but where is the prompt? ♥

waterways _______ 5.7__ 14.3__ -5.8 __ 133 __ 95 ____ Shannon____13.2

Rikand

Rikand ...... 5.0 ..... 15.5 ...... -6.0 ...... 120 ...... 110 ...... 12.5 valentia

Lumi

Lumi _______ 5.5__ 14.3__ -4.7 __ 120 __ 93____ 8.9__Valentia

mrskinner

Skinner

---

> 5.2____13.9____-6.9____80%____99%____9.9____Valentia

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium ______ 5.1 __ 12.5 __ -5.7 ___ 090 ___ 110 ___ 10.2 Johnstown C

rameire

Rameire___5.2___13.5___-3.0___110___86___7.0 valentia

dacogawa

Dacogawa ___ 5.3 __ 12.1 __ -6 ___ 100 ___ 90 ___ 8.9 Valentia

omicron

omicron_______ 6.3__ 14.0__ -4.0 __ 100 __ 095____ 12- Valentia

jd

JD_______ 5.0__ 14.6__ -5.9 __ 112 __ 106____ 11.3 - Sherkin

mickger844posts

mickger844posts_______ 4.5__ 14.5__ -4.1 __ 115 __ 95____ 8.5 Valentina

Jpmarn

Jpmarn______ 5.0__ 14.5__ -5.5 __ 85 __ 105____ 12.5 Shannon

M.T. Cranium

February 2016 -- Table of forecasts


FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ MAX 14th, loc'm

kindredspirit ___________ 6.6 _ 15.7 _ --4.0 _ 121 _ 091 _____ 11.6 __ Sherkin
omicron________ (-4) ___ 6.3 _ 14.0 _ --4.0 _ 100 _ 095 _____ 12.0 __ Valentia
waterways _____________5.7 _ 14.3 _ --5.8 _ 133 _ 095 _____ 13.2 __ Shannon
Tae laidir ______________5.6 _ 13.8 _ --5.7 _ 118 _ 104 _____ 11.1 __ Sherkin
Lumi _________________ 5.5 _ 14.3 _ --4.7 _ 120 _ 093 ______ 8.9 __ Valentia
John mac______________ 5.5 _ 13.7 _ --3.1 _ 120 _ 090 _____ 10.1 __ Shannon
200motels_____________ 5.3 _ 14.6 _ --4.9 _ 111 _ 112 _____ 11.5 __ Sherkin
Dacogawa ___ (-3) ______5.3 _ 12.1 _ --6.0 _ 100 _ 090 ______ 8.9 __ Valentia
Dasa29________________5.3 _ 14.5 _ --4.0 _ 115 _ 090 _____ 11.0 __ Valentia

Norma L ______________ 5.3 _ 14.5 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 10.5 __ Valentia

MrSkinner _____________ 5.2 _ 13.9 _ --6.9 _ 080 _ 099 ______ 9.9 __ Valentia
Pauldry________________5.2 _ 13.5 _ --5.1 _ 109 _ 110 _____ 11.0 __ Sherkin
Rameire ____ (-1) ______ 5.2 _ 13.5 _ --3.0 _ 110 _ 086 ______ 7.0 __ Valentia
Bsal__________________ 5.1 _ 14.6 _ --4.4 _ 115 _ 111 _____ 11.4 __ Sherkin

Con Sensus ____________5.1 _ 14.3 _ --5.1 _ 111 _ 100 _____ 10.2 __ Valentia

Lostinashford___________ 5.1 _ 14.3 _ --4.3 _ 112 _ 104 _____ 10.0 __ Shannon
M.T. Cranium ___________5.1 _ 12.5 _ --5.7 _ 090 _ 110 _____ 10.2 __ Johnstown
Rikand ________________ 5.0 _ 15.5 _ --6.0 _ 120 _ 110 _____ 12.5 __ Valentia
JD_________ (-4) _______5.0 _ 14.6 _ --5.9 _ 112 _ 106 _____ 11.3 __ Sherkin
Jpmarn _____ (-8) ______ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ --5.5 _ 085 _ 105 _____ 12.5 __ Shannon
Sunflower3_____________ 5.0 _ 13.2 _ --6.1 _ 095 _ 090 ______ 9.5 __ Valentia
Schadenfreudia _________ 5.0 _ 13.0 _ --5.1 _ 115 _ 100 ______ 9.2 __ Valentia
Timmyboy _____________ 4.9 _ 16.4 _ --6.3 _ 088 _ 104 _____ 13.9 __-Cork
DOCARCH _____________ 4.9 _ 14.8 _ --4.2 _ 110 _ 092 _____ 10.0 __ Valentia
sryanbruen ____________ 4.9 _ 13.8 _--12.2 _ 063 _ 114 ______ 8.5 __ Valentia
Joe Public______________ 4.5 _ 15.9 _ --5.9 _ 089 _ 109 ______ 9.9 __ Sherkin
mickger844posts__ (-5) __ 4.5 _ 14.5 _ --4.1 _ 115 _ 095 ______ 8.5 __ Valentia
_______________________________________________________________

The group consensus calls for a fairly normal February overall, perhaps a bit on the wet side of normal. It seems that all of our regular entrants managed to find a way to log on, and welcome to Timmyboy.

pauldry

13.3c Moore Park first Max

M.T. Cranium

Nice to see that boards is back to a more normal operation, at least on my old setup.

Meanwhile, the first week stats are in (mostly) and with some minor estimating required I have these numbers:

IMT is on 6.4, so far 1.2 above normal. That may shift to a negative value by the end of week two, estimating 4.9 by then.

PRC has averaged just about 150%, JC had to be estimated but most of its available numbers are on the wet days so I am confident that their average was around 125% if not more, so from that the overall average is 150%.

SUN would be 73% if we assume Casement matched Dublin's 101% which is mainly bolstered by a high total on one day that Casement is so far missing, so this estimate may be revisited when I find that data posted.

My guess is that neither max nor min have yet been established but max so far appears to be 13.3 C.

sryanbruen

I think Rameire will be the closest to the Valentine's Day max as according to M.T.'s forecast

M.T. Cranium

I noticed an hourly reading of -3 at Athenry at 0600h today without any chance to see earlier readings there or elsewhere, so would expect some movement of the MIN to be posted here tomorrow and possibly with more hourlies that go even lower.