General Election 2016 - Dublin Mid-West

masti123

The four elected TD's in 2011 were:
Joanna Tuffy LAB 7,495
Frances Fitzgerald FG 7,281
Robert Dowds LAB 5,643
Derek Keating FG 5,933

My prediction at present:

Eoin O'Broin (Sinn Féin): Looks to be a shoe in, he'll top the poll easily
Frances Fitzgerald (Fine Gael): She's still doing well in parts
John Curran (Fianna Fáil): He'll be lucky to scrape 5,000 fp votes even with Dowds out, but clear third
Gino Kenny (AAA/PBP): He will come in around the 4,000 mark thanks to a left vote transfer pact

This is an interesting constituency in my view - the betting is as follows:
Eoin Ó Broin (Sinn Féin) 1/20
Frances Fitzgerald (Fine Gael) 1/20
Derek Keating (Fine Gael) 4/9
John Curran (Fianna Fáil) 8/13
Gino Kenny (AAA/PBP) 4/6
Joanna Tuffy (Labour) 5/4
Paul Gogorty (IND) 4/1
Anne-Marie McNally (Social Democrats) 14/1
Lorainne Hennessy (Workers Party) 33/1
Francis Timmons (IND) 80/1

What way do you think it will go?

Pherekydes

I think O Broin, Fitzgerald, Tuffy and Kenny or someone else will take seats.

Fitz is a minister, so she's probably safe. O Broin will surely win, maybe top the poll, as you say. Tuffy has no running mate, so no one to split the Labour vote, so there might just be enough Labour votes or transfers to elect her. The last seat will go down to the proverbial wire, with the most transfer-friendly candidate winning out. Kenny could be that guy. Curran will be hoping for a resurgence in the eFFer vote, but their vote actually declined at the last local election. Does not augur well for him. Maybe watch out for ex-TD Paul Gogarty and the SocDem rep McNally. Interesting to see how they do nationally.

Interesting times ahead...

average_runner

Fitzgerald will walk in easily. She is the only TD in the area that is doing something.

Broin is doing feck all in the area, haven't heard anything from him in ages.

You know there is an election when you see Tuffy face appearing once every 4 years. Hope she doesn't get in.


To be honest Lucan doesn't have many good options here, so Fitzgerald and Broin will get in, after that its open.

Really surprised some of the councillors aren't running. Laville should run instead of Keating as he would get in

Nika Bolokov

Can't see Gino Kenny and O'Broin getting in. Seems last time they split the vote and neither got in.

I'd go for O'Broin this time given Sinn Feins national profile and cannibalising Kenny's vote.

Don't see him topping the poll, reckon FitzGerald will do that with a big block of votes from Lucan and Clondalkin village.

The first count will be a mess with Curran getting about 1800 first preferences from Clondalkin based on personal profile, Tuffy getting about 1,000 more and the rest spread evenly on a sliding scale with the bigger party candidates getting more down to the least likely ones like Timmons.

Then your into a complete crap shoot as preferences go all over the place.

See it as

1)FitzGerald
2)O'Broin
3)Keating (Support from Lucan and transfers)
4)Gogarty ( Again Lucan is so big now and careless nostalgia third and fourth preferences based on the 'F U deputy Stagg' video which will get a good airing)

Although wouldn't be surprised if Curran got in at 4.

downthemiddle

Anyone who votes for Keating gets the T.D. they deserve.

Heroditas

Can't see Keating getting re-elected. Funnily enough, he was up in the Eurospar in Pennyhill this morning having a clinic by the looks off it and I overheard hi say to a lady "I will definitely get this discussed in the Dáil."
I was tempted to ask how he hoped to keep that promise with the Dáil being dissolved any day now and he's not guaranteed to be reelected.

Anyway, I see Fitzgerald, Curran, O'Broin and Tuffy/Dowds being the 4 who are elected.
FG would have a chance of 2 seats if anyone else bar Keating was running.
I just can't see AAA getting a seat ahead of SF.
The economy is picking up, people will have received their first pay cheques with the increased amounts in them, increased child allowances etc. That's the sort of thing that turns voters' heads.

Pherekydes

Heroditas wrote: »

Anyway, I see Fitzgerald, Curran, O'Broin and Tuffy/Dowds being the 4 who are elected.

Dowds is not running. I can't see Curran being elected. It'll be a fair dogfight for the last two seats.

Heroditas

Pherekydes wrote: »

Dowds is not running. I can't see Curran being elected. It'll be a fair dogfight for the last two seats.

Oh really? Who's the second Labour candidate?

Pherekydes

Heroditas wrote: »

Oh really? Who's the second Labour candidate?

I don't think there is one. I believe Labour are only running 36 candidates nationally. I guess they've resigned themselves to losing a good few seats.

Frank Grimes

Heroditas wrote: »

Oh really? Who's the second Labour candidate?

Pherekydes wrote: »

I don't think there is one. I believe Labour are only running 36 candidates nationally. I guess they've resigned themselves to losing a good few seats.

It's just Joanna Tuffy running for them, the list of candidates (with the exception of an independent called Clare Leonard) are in the OP which looks to be take from the Paddy Power site. The Irish Times have a constituency profile with more information.

Heroditas

Pherekydes wrote: »

I don't think there is one. I believe Labour are only running 36 candidates nationally. I guess they've resigned themselves to losing a good few seats.

Leaves quite a hole in the constituency. Curran could very well scoop up that seat.

Heroditas

Frank Grimes wrote: »

It's just Joanna Tuffy running for them, the list of candidates (with the exception of an independent called Clare Leonard) are in the OP which looks to be take from the Paddy Power site. The Irish Times have a constituency profile with more information.

Thanks. Didn't realise that was online!

Frank Grimes

Heroditas wrote: »

Thanks. Didn't realise that was online!

No problem! Just realised I forgot to actually answer the question in the OP. I think Eoin Ó Broin and Francis Fitzgerald will definitely get in, I'm thinking Gino Kenny for the third seat and possibly Gogarty for the fourth.

Based purely on my own speculation; I imagine Curran will get a lot of first preferences votes from the core FF supporters but that will be about it and he won't get a seat as a result. I can see a lot of Ó'Broin's transfers going to Gino Kenny which, on top of his own support, will get him in (again guesswork on my part). I'm thinking a lot of it will come down to who Fitzgerald's voters transfer to; given how unpopular Keating seems to be, I've never interacted with him so I can't comment, they might go elsewhere - just not sure to whom.

I can't see Tuffy getting in based on general anger towards Labour, without a 'Clondalkin candidate' running I'm not sure if she'll get enough transfers either so whatever loss in first preferences she experiences it won't be made up in transfers. Having said all of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see Anne-Marie McNally getting in, she might just attract enough ex-Labour voters and others just wanting to try someone new, maybe Fitzgerald transfers too? Will be fun to watch the counts coming in anyway!

Heroditas

I can't see Gogarty getting in. He only got his local seat on the 11th count in 2014 and I can't see him picking up votes in Tallaght or Clondalkin. He would have to rely on transfers from FF and FG or Labour voters.
It's actually shaping up to be a very interesting constituency.
I think Keating has been abandoned by FG. Haven't seen any mention of him in any local issues and Casserly and Lavelle seem to have thrown in their lot behind Fitzgerald.

Frank Grimes

Heroditas wrote: »

I can't see Gogarty getting in. He only got his local seat on the 11th count in 2014 and I can't see him picking up votes in Tallaght or Clondalkin. He would have to rely on transfers from FF and FG or Labour voters.

Forgot to mention my rationale for him. Similar to what I was saying about Anne-Marie McNally, he might pick up votes from people annoyed with/abandoning FG/Labour but who won't go down the SF/SWP route. He has a higher profile than McNally so that might attract the votes, although that profile might go against him given that he was part of the FF/Greens coalition.

It's actually shaping up to be a very interesting constituency.
I think Keating has been abandoned by FG. Haven't seen any mention of him in any local issues and Casserly and Lavelle seem to have thrown in their lot behind Fitzgerald.

Definitely is!

Frank Grimes

Heroditas wrote: »

I can't see Gogarty getting in. He only got his local seat on the 11th count in 2014 and I can't see him picking up votes in Tallaght or Clondalkin.

Just noticed that bit, Tallaght isn't part of Dublin Mid-West.

Heroditas

Frank Grimes wrote: »

Just noticed that bit, Tallaght isn't part of Dublin Mid-West.

Of course. No idea why I had included it in the constituency!!!

average_runner

Got two letters from Keating over the last few days, he struggled the last time to get in, can't see him getting in this time.

Pherekydes

Heroditas wrote: »

Of course. No idea why I had included it in the constituency!!!

To be fair, the constituency boundary was redrawn.

I too, got two letters from Keating. Wasting taxpayers' money on the double!

It'll be interesting to see if the SocDems gain a foothold nationally. They haven't been very vocal as yet.

phasers

I got a letter from Joanna Tuffy the other day which basically implied that she is personally building a library in North Clondalkin. Funny, I hadn't heard a word from her since about a month before the last general election.

Frank Grimes

I don't get letters from any of them, none of them ever canvass on my road anymore either. I think the last canvasser I encountered was looking for votes for the PDs which will give you some idea. I don't want to ask any of them why as it might just draw their attention

sabhail

Frank Grimes wrote: »

I don't get letters from any of them, none of them ever canvass on my road anymore either. I think the last canvasser I encountered was looking for votes for the PDs which will give you some idea. I don't want to ask any of them why as it might just draw their attention

Had ff canvasser 2 nights ago, Lucan. Got short shrift!

Agree obroin and Fitzgerald will be first 2 in. Don't be think obroin will top poll.

After that, hard to predict. Not sure how popular or well known Gino is on Lucan and Palmerstown, Gogarty might do better this time, having been on council again.. Would think tuffy is dead in the water. Will be v disappointed if Keating gets in but he's definitely got a high profile in constituency , and they say name recognition is a factor.

As for Curran, hope he won't get in but wouldn't bet against it. The rest I don't think will figure.

Frank Grimes

sabhail wrote: »

Had ff canvasser 2 nights ago, Lucan. Got short shrift!

Agree obroin and Fitzgerald will be first 2 in. Don't be think obroin will top poll.

After that, hard to predict. Not sure how popular or well known Gino is on Lucan and Palmerstown, Gogarty might do better this time, having been on council again.. Would think tuffy is dead in the water. Will be v disappointed if Keating gets in but he's definitely got a high profile in constituency , and they say name recognition is a factor.

As for Curran, hope he won't get in but wouldn't bet against it. The rest I don't think will figure.

Definitely. What the ex-Labour voters from the previous election do will be interesting and certainly have a major impact. One candidate I forgot all about is Lorraine Hennessy from the Workers' Party; I can't see her getting in at all but I'd imagine she'll pick up transfers from Ó' Broin and Kenny so where Fitzgerald's transfers go will probably have a major impact, as again I doubt they'll all be going to Keating based on everything that's being said.

average_runner

Frank Grimes wrote: »

Definitely. What the ex-Labour voters from the previous election do will be interesting and certainly have a major impact. One candidate I forgot all about is Lorraine Hennessy from the Workers' Party; I can't see her getting in at all but I'd imagine she'll pick up transfers from Ó' Broin and Kenny so where Fitzgerald's transfers go will probably have a major impact, as again I doubt they'll all be going to Keating based on everything that's being said.

I will give fitzgerald my first preference, but after that I might not vote for the others as its not a great selection to be honest.

Frank Grimes

Couple of more candidates announced for the constituency, one from the Greens and one from Direct Democracy Ireland.

Adrian Kavanagh wrote:

Dublin Mid-West (4): Frances Fitzgerald FG, Derek Keating FG, John Curran FF, Joanna Tuffy LAB, Eoin Ó Broin SF, Gino Kenny PBPA, Anne-Marie McNally SD, Lorraine Hennessy WP, Ronan Rafferty GP, Christopher Healy DDI-NCM, Francis Timmons IND, Paul Gogarty IND/IND ALL, Clare Leonard IND

Taken from: https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2014/10/22/officially-declared-candidates-for-the-20152016-general-election/ (search for Dublin Mid-West to get to it, can't directly link to the constituency profile).

Frank Grimes

A few more names have been added, the list is here: https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/index.php/8-general-information/9-nominated-candidates-2016-dublin-mid-west
I'm not sure if nominations are now closed, I only took a quick look and didn't see a date but I'm sure it's there somewhere.

Dodge

Think the Greens got mixed up the Cherrywood in Dublin 18 and the Cherrywood in Clondalkin if they were hoping to propose a local candidate...

Frank Grimes

Dodge wrote: »

Think the Greens got mixed up the Cherrywood in Dublin 18 and the Cherrywood in Clondalkin if they were hoping to propose a local candidate...

It was originally someone called Ronan Rafferty, the URL on their site still has his name but now shows Tom Kivlehan as the candidate.

unkel

Joanna Tuffy had the lowest attendance rate of all 166 TDs. For that fact alone she doesn't deserve anyone's vote imho

Linky

L1011

unkel wrote: »

Joanna Tuffy had the lowest attendance rate of all 166 TDs. For that fact alone she doesn't deserve anyone's vote imho

Linky

There were 118 sitting days, of which she was there for 102. That's nowhere near the lowest - a very very quick flick through the file finds Billy Timmins on 73, Bobby Aylward on 59 and so on.

The ST has the 120 "limit" utterly arseways, but that's Murdoch for you. The reason they're the only media outlet "reporting" this as it isn't correct.

http://www.oireachtas.ie/documents/members/attsd20151231.pdf

average_runner

unkel wrote: »

Joanna Tuffy had the lowest attendance rate of all 166 TDs. For that fact alone she doesn't deserve anyone's vote imho

Linky

Joanne who? Is that the person that knocks on my door once every 5 years?

She is very environment friendly though, as I never get any leaflets over the year on what she does. Oh wait, she does nothing