General Election 2016 - Dublin Mid-West

emo72

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emo72

fitzgerald
o brion
curran
gogarty

my prediction. tuffy and keating get a kicking, fitzgerald has huge support, dont know how though. curran has done his time in the wilderness, and people have short memories. see how it pans out.

elsewhere im praying to god that burton and the modest alan kelly get booted out.

average_runner

emo72 wrote: »

fitzgerald
o brion
curran
gogarty

my prediction. tuffy and keating get a kicking, fitzgerald has huge support, dont know how though. curran has done his time in the wilderness, and people have short memories. see how it pans out.

elsewhere im praying to god that burton and the modest alan kelly get booted out.

Fitzgerald has a huge support cause she is constanlty involved in stuff in Lucan. the ones you see out in Lucan are Fitzgerald, Laville, FG councillor from the village and the Ind O'toole.

The rest of them you never see out in Lucan, pushing for funding for local sports etc.

Heroditas

Fitzgerald called to our house just before I got home from work yesterday. My wife had a good long talk with her and was very impressed with her.
I'd also agree that she is constantly involved in community activities. She's been a very good TD for the area.

JimsAlterEgo

average_runner wrote: »

Fitzgerald has a huge support cause she is constanlty involved in stuff in Lucan. the ones you see out in Lucan are Fitzgerald, Laville, FG councillor from the village and the Ind O'toole.

The rest of them you never see out in Lucan, pushing for funding for local sports etc.

wonder why Lavelle didn't run this time instead of or even with Keating? I think he would have had a decent chance

average_runner

JimsAlterEgo wrote: »

wonder why Lavelle didn't run this time instead of or even with Keating? I think he would have had a decent chance

I would say most of Lucan are wondering that, maybe because Keating is a sitting TD, but there is no hope in keating getting back in. So bad move by FG and I will ask Fitzgerald that when she calls

Heroditas

JimsAlterEgo wrote: »

wonder why Lavelle didn't run this time instead of or even with Keating? I think he would have had a decent chance

Three FG candidates would run the risk of diluting their vote too much.
I reckon they put Keating in again because he's the incumbent so stands a chance (albeit possibly slim of retaining the seat).
Lavelle will probably be given a shot next time around. He's certainly put in the spadework at council level for long enough.

niallo32

Heroditas wrote: »

Fitzgerald called to our house just before I got home from work yesterday. My wife had a good long talk with her and was very impressed with her.
I'd also agree that she is constantly involved in community activities. She's been a very good TD for the area.

She's very involved in Clondalkin community affairs also and was throughout her whole term. I've ended up on Keating's text message circular somehow - first time I seen him in Clondalkin since he was elected was in September.

emo72

I'd imagine they are giving Keating a chance to prove himself this time. If it doesn't work Lavelle will be nominated? Lavelle is being well groomed it seems.

brick tamland

Surely the only reason keating got the nod from FG was because he was a sitting TD. Could they remove him their nomination? I cant see him getting in after the free newspaper incident the other year and their seems to be a negative perception of him in Lucan. I think his support has gone. Leville would have surely polled better, seems like a decent enough character

So its Fitzgerald and Sinn Fein for 2 seats (although I don’t know why, don’t know the Sinn Fein lad at all) and then other 2 seats are where its gets interesting. 2 from Curran/Keating/Tufty/Gogarty/Kenny. Could go anyway

IvySlayer

Still waiting on that swimming pool that was promised 10 years ago :mad:

Frances Fitzgerald mentions it in her leaflet

average_runner

IvySlayer wrote: »

Still waiting on that swimming pool that was promised 10 years ago :mad:

Frances Fitzgerald mentions it in her leaflet

And if you were following it, it's on the funding shortlist. But we also got to remember there is towns outside Dublin that doesn't have a pool within 50 miles.

Hotblack Desiato

That's no excuse for a lack of facilities in Dublin.

You have to remember that not only are we paying through the nose to buy or rent our homes, we're paying through the nose in property tax (or your landlord is adding it to your rent) and a lot of that money is flowing out of Dublin, never to be seen again, and probably wasted on bridges to nowhere or resurfacing the boreen to some councillor's house.

Dublin needs a mayor with funding and powers to deliver the facilities and infrastructure that Dublin people need. Outgoing government cocked this up (probably designed it to fail) and 'postponed' Dart Underground and Metro North, probably permanently. It's just not good enough - but being seen to spend money in Dublin costs votes out in the sticks. What they forget is what's good for Dublin is good for the economy and the nation as a whole.

I'm also sick of rural candidates being parachuted into urban areas and bringing their regressive social policies with them. Dublin voters need to wise up tbh.

Back on topic - Keating has a lot of name recognition all right but not in a good way! Gogarty similarly and still has the FF/Green taint off him. Curran does too obviously, but will get a personal vote, maybe large enough to get in maybe not. SD candidate is an unknown, would pick up a council seat fairly handy but I don't see her getting into the Dail coming from nowhere.

1&2. Fitzgerald/O'Broin (toss up between them for first two seats)
3. Kelly (SF surplus, and transfers from the other left candidates, getting him over the line late on)
4. Tuffy (scraping in on Keating and SD transfers when they are eliminated)
Curran to just miss out as FF are transfer toxic.

average_runner

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

That's no excuse for a lack of facilities in Dublin.

You have to remember that not only are we paying through the nose to buy or rent our homes, we're paying through the nose in property tax (or your landlord is adding it to your rent) and a lot of that money is flowing out of Dublin, never to be seen again, and probably wasted on bridges to nowhere or resurfacing the boreen to some councillor's house.

Dublin needs a mayor with funding and powers to deliver the facilities and infrastructure that Dublin people need. Outgoing government cocked this up (probably designed it to fail) and 'postponed' Dart Underground and Metro North, probably permanently. It's just not good enough - but being seen to spend money in Dublin costs votes out in the sticks. What they forget is what's good for Dublin is good for the economy and the nation as a whole.

I'm also sick of rural candidates being parachuted into urban areas and bringing their regressive social policies with them. Dublin voters need to wise up tbh.

Back on topic - Keating has a lot of name recognition all right but not in a good way! Gogarty similarly and still has the FF/Green taint off him. Curran does too obviously, but will get a personal vote, maybe large enough to get in maybe not. SD candidate is an unknown, would pick up a council seat fairly handy but I don't see her getting into the Dail coming from nowhere.

1&2. Fitzgerald/O'Broin (toss up between them for first two seats)
3. Kelly (SF surplus, and transfers from the other left candidates, getting him over the line late on)
4. Tuffy (scraping in on Keating and SD transfers when they are eliminated)
Curran to just miss out as FF are transfer toxic.

Lack? You have 3/4 public pools within ten miles of lucan for god sake.

We haven't got the numbers to support a underground on a finance side, it would be like 5-6 euro or more for a ticket from lucan to town on it.

Dublin people need to wise up? Seriously mate, Dublin would be a terrible mess right now if the country people didn't come up in the 90's and early 2000's to take the jobs, as companies would of pulled out of Ireland and there be less money in the economy for anything as companies would not of got the employees.

Even if you look at Lucan, most of the sport clubs are run by maiinly people from the country, you see the kids in Kilkenny, Wexford Cork jersey's every summer when hurling in Griffeen.

To get back on topic, Gogarty called to our house yesterday. Came across very well and I like it that he is with Shane Ross now. If he gets elected he be part of the government I would think as can see FG/Ind Alliance/Lab forming it.

He also said the expected outcome of the seats are Fitzgerald, O'Broinn and Curran for the first three. Curran got over 5,000 first preference in the last election this will go up as Labour are gone. 4th seat is between Gogarty, Keating and some one else.

In fairness to Gogarty he admitted alot of mistakes in the past to me at the door when I had a debate with him, he impressed me loads. Will get my second vote.

swimwidow

The problem with O'Broin and Kenny is they have to get their vote out to the polling stations in the Clondalkin area if Kenny especially is going to have any chance. Neither myself or my OH were impressed by his canvassers(one of the very few left leaning candidates that does canvass in the "posher" parts of the consitutency) and she couldn't for the life of her answer any of the very specific questions we have for all of them.

We've had Curran, Fitzgerald and Gino's lot at our door. None of the others - and I don't think the last few elections SF have even graced our estate. Having said that, neither Gino or O'Broin have done much for the middle class people of the area - they seem to target other parts....but those people don't go out and vote or shockingly, don't know how to vote(just trawl through some of the candidate facebook page comments...they never knew it was "1, 2, 3, 4" etc).

Tuffy - she may get in by the skin of her teeth - but I doubt it somehow.

My prediction: Fitzgerald to top the poll(she seems to be the only one who does something for the ENTIRE consituency), O'Broin, Curran(he has alot of support out there) and between Gogarty and Tuffy with Gogarty winning out I think.

Hotblack Desiato

average_runner wrote: »

Lack? You have 3/4 public pools within ten miles of lucan for god sake.

Ten miles? In Dublin traffic, a leisure facility ten miles away might as well be on the moon. Do you even live in this city?

And if you draw a ten mile radius circle on a map of Dublin, you will have close to if not more than a million people within it. Yes more facilities are needed, there is more than enough population to sustain more of them, and in a congested urban environment with very poor public transport they need to be local, within a short walking/cycling distance of the population they serve. We are still stuck with the mindset in this country that a "sports facility" is a field and a couple of goalposts. Not remotely good enough.

We haven't got the numbers to support a underground on a finance side, it would be like 5-6 euro or more for a ticket from lucan to town on it.

A common myth, there are many European cities smaller than Dublin with underground rail systems.

Dublin people need to wise up? Seriously mate, Dublin would be a terrible mess right now

Dublin is a terrible mess right now, because of planning corruption over decades, a national government that seeks to do the engine of the national economy down, and outright bigotry, among other things.

As a nation we need to stop under-representing Dublin in the Dail, stop parachuting rural candidates into Dublin seats, stop believing that anything good for Dublin is a loss elsewhere. It's not a zero-sum game.

if the country people didn't come up in the 90's and early 2000's to take the jobs, as companies would of pulled out of Ireland and there be less money in the economy for anything as companies would not of got the employees.

Non-sequitur. I didn't say anything about that. ?!

Even if you look at Lucan, most of the sport clubs are run by maiinly people from the country, you see the kids in Kilkenny, Wexford Cork jersey's every summer when hurling in Griffeen.

Great. It's a good thing when people seek opportunity and take it and then want to contribute to their new community. We still have too many people who choose to moan and whinge instead though, because it's unfair that their rural town is less attractive to Google than Dublin Docklands. Reality check needed.

In fairness to Gogarty he admitted alot of mistakes in the past to me at the door when I had a debate with him, he impressed me loads. Will get my second vote.

He can admit whatever he likes, he's not fit for office and Keating isn't either.

average_runner

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Ten miles? In Dublin traffic, a leisure facility ten miles away might as well be on the moon. Do you even live in this city?

And if you draw a ten mile radius circle on a map of Dublin, you will have close to if not more than a million people within it. Yes more facilities are needed, there is more than enough population to sustain more of them, and in a congested urban environment with very poor public transport they need to be local, within a short walking/cycling distance of the population they serve. We are still stuck with the mindset in this country that a "sports facility" is a field and a couple of goalposts. Not remotely good enough.



A common myth, there are many European cities smaller than Dublin with underground rail systems.



Dublin is a terrible mess right now, because of planning corruption over decades, a national government that seeks to do the engine of the national economy down, and outright bigotry, among other things.

As a nation we need to stop under-representing Dublin in the Dail, stop parachuting rural candidates into Dublin seats, stop believing that anything good for Dublin is a loss elsewhere. It's not a zero-sum game.



Non-sequitur. I didn't say anything about that. ?!



Great. It's a good thing when people seek opportunity and take it and then want to contribute to their new community. We still have too many people who choose to moan and whinge instead though, because it's unfair that their rural town is less attractive to Google than Dublin Docklands. Reality check needed.



He can admit whatever he likes, he's not fit for office and Keating isn't either.

10 min drive to Clondakin on a sat more or at 7pm. 20 min drive to town on a sat morning or 35 mins on the bus!!

The gym by the runnign track in Tallaght has a pay as you policy, 15 mins drive anytime. And its very cheap!

unkel

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

A common myth, there are many European cities smaller than Dublin with underground rail systems.

+1

As an example from the Netherlands, Amsterdam and in particular Rotterdam are similar population low rise spread out cities just like Dublin. The latter had a two line subway system going back to the 60s where you could commute 25km into the city centre in 20 minutes (train every couple of minutes) for very reasonable money. So a a quarter of a million people use it. Every day. That's nearly the same as all of Dublin bus lines together :eek:

With just 2 metro lines. All greater Dublins congested traffic would be gone if we had a system like that

You do not need big metropoles like London or Paris for a metro system to work perfectly well and economically for large numbers of people

average_runner

unkel wrote: »

+1

As an example from the Netherlands, Amsterdam and in particular Rotterdam are similar population low rise spread out cities just like Dublin. The latter had a two line subway system going back to the 60s where you could commute 25km into the city centre in 20 minutes (train every couple of minutes) for very reasonable money. So a a quarter of a million people use it. Every day. That's nearly the same as all of Dublin bus lines together :eek:

With just 2 metro lines. All greater Dublins congested traffic would be gone if we had a system like that

You do not need big metropoles like London or Paris for a metro system to work perfectly well and economically for large numbers of people

At the moment the government funds the luas a 100,000 a day. Where do you think we get the money to build a subway?

Hotblack Desiato

average_runner wrote: »

At the moment the government funds the luas a 100,000 a day.

No it doesn't.

But they will fine Transdev €100,000 a day for every day the service isn't running.

Where do you think we get the money to build a subway?

Where every other government and every business gets money for capital investment - borrowing.

The government can borrow long term at 1% in the markets at the moment, this is as close to free money as is ever going to happen. There is also the possibility of EU investment funding. I'd much rather that borrowing was being used for useful and needed projects that will generate employment and a large social return, rather than bank bailouts or welfare giveaways.

Thinking small is what is wrong with this country and as long as we're governed mostly by rural schoolteachers that's not likely to change.

average_runner

So what about this in the Irish Independent so

"It had losses of €700,000 last year and cannot benefit from a hike in fares, as it pays these to the State and gets a flat rate of €100,000 a day to run the service."

Article link : http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/minister-no-plan-to-halt-strike-by-luas-workers-34463819.html


Yeah of course the government can borrow billions, but what idiot would do that in the current market when millions is getting wiped off shares on a daily basis, another risk of the banks going under and and looks like a worst recession than the last one coming!!

brick tamland

Wow this has gone off topic.....

Anyway, just listed to newstalk podcast and Ivan Yates predicts

1) O'Brion
2) Fitzgerald
3) Kenny
4) Keating

His logic on Keating was that 1-3 are all clondalkin and DK will get a lot of the Lucan votes and transfers when other Lucan Candidate ( Curran, Tuffy, Gogarty ) are eliminated.

Frank Grimes

brick tamland wrote: »

Wow this has gone off topic.....

Anyway, just listed to newstalk podcast and Ivan Yates predicts

1) O'Brion
2) Fitzgerald
3) Kenny
4) Keating

His logic on Keating was that 1-3 are all clondalkin and DK will get a lot of the Lucan votes and transfers when other Lucan Candidate ( Curran, Tuffy, Gogarty ) are eliminated.

I was reading his blog post yesterday, I still think he's overestimating the extent to which votes will transfer to Keating. Maybe I'll be proven wrong but given how unpopular Keating seems to be I can't see him getting in again.

Heroditas

Even Keating's running mate seems to dislike him!

Frank Grimes

brick tamland wrote: »

Wow this has gone off topic.....

Anyway, just listed to newstalk podcast and Ivan Yates predicts

1) O'Brion
2) Fitzgerald
3) Kenny
4) Keating

His logic on Keating was that 1-3 are all clondalkin and DK will get a lot of the Lucan votes and transfers when other Lucan Candidate ( Curran, Tuffy, Gogarty ) are eliminated.

Just noticed that bit, Curran is a Clondalkin candidate.

Heroditas

I think Adrian Kavanagh from Maynooth University is brilliant and he really knows his stuff.
According to his blog HERE, we will see 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 Lab and 1 other
So, the question is who is the "other"? Gino Kenny or Paul Gogarty?

Frank Grimes

Heroditas wrote: »

I think Adrian Kavanagh from Maynooth University is brilliant and he really knows his stuff.
According to his blog HERE, we will see 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 Lab and 1 other
So, the question is who is the "other"? Gino Kenny or Paul Gogarty?

Gino Kenny. I'm still thinking O'Broin/Fitzgerald/Kenny +1; not sure on the +1 though but I don't think it'll be Tuffy.

Does anyone know anything about the two independents Haroon Khan and Patrick Akpoveta?

Heroditas

Frank Grimes wrote: »

Gino Kenny. I'm still thinking O'Broin/Fitzgerald/Kenny +1; not sure on the +1 though but I don't think it'll be Tuffy.

Does anyone know anything about the two independents Haroon Khan and Patrick Akpoveta?

Nothing apart from the fact that definitely one, maybe both of them ran the last time!
I seem to remember Haroon campaigning for more cricket pitches the last time.
Patrick definitely ran and seemed to centre his campaign around the churches in the village in Lucan

Frank Grimes

Heroditas wrote: »

Nothing apart from the fact that definitely one, maybe both of them ran the last time!
I seem to remember Haroon campaigning for more cricket pitches the last time.
Patrick definitely ran and seemed to centre his campaign around the churches in the village in Lucan

Thanks. I can't find much online other than references to Patrick Akpoveta running in the last local election.

Hotblack Desiato

average_runner wrote: »

So what about this in the Irish Independent so

"It had losses of €700,000 last year and cannot benefit from a hike in fares, as it pays these to the State and gets a flat rate of €100,000 a day to run the service."

Article link : http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/minister-no-plan-to-halt-strike-by-luas-workers-34463819.html

Assuming that report is accurate (this IS the Indo, and it's quite possible they confused the daily fine with the daily fee. I would have thought the daily fee to run the service was commercially confidential) that's still not what you said. You said the state "funds" Luas €100k per day, it doesn't, because the NTA gets the fare income. Your post implied there is a subsidy of 100k per day net of fare income, there isn't.

Yeah of course the government can borrow billions,

We cut capital investment i.e. schools, hospitals, transport etc. down to the bone in the recession, but these things are needed and yes that includes major public transport investment in Dublin. The outgoing government just kicked it into touch for short-term political reasons, not because PT investment in Dublin is not needed, and not because it doesn't make economic sense to do so.

but what idiot would do that in the current market when millions is getting wiped off shares on a daily basis, another risk of the banks going under and and looks like a worst recession than the last one coming!!

That's all irrelevant and/or speculation.