General Election 2016 - Dublin Mid-West

average_runner

So what about this in the Irish Independent so

"It had losses of €700,000 last year and cannot benefit from a hike in fares, as it pays these to the State and gets a flat rate of €100,000 a day to run the service."

Article link : http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/minister-no-plan-to-halt-strike-by-luas-workers-34463819.html


Yeah of course the government can borrow billions, but what idiot would do that in the current market when millions is getting wiped off shares on a daily basis, another risk of the banks going under and and looks like a worst recession than the last one coming!!

brick tamland

Wow this has gone off topic.....

Anyway, just listed to newstalk podcast and Ivan Yates predicts

1) O'Brion
2) Fitzgerald
3) Kenny
4) Keating

His logic on Keating was that 1-3 are all clondalkin and DK will get a lot of the Lucan votes and transfers when other Lucan Candidate ( Curran, Tuffy, Gogarty ) are eliminated.

Frank Grimes

brick tamland wrote: »

Wow this has gone off topic.....

Anyway, just listed to newstalk podcast and Ivan Yates predicts

1) O'Brion
2) Fitzgerald
3) Kenny
4) Keating

His logic on Keating was that 1-3 are all clondalkin and DK will get a lot of the Lucan votes and transfers when other Lucan Candidate ( Curran, Tuffy, Gogarty ) are eliminated.

I was reading his blog post yesterday, I still think he's overestimating the extent to which votes will transfer to Keating. Maybe I'll be proven wrong but given how unpopular Keating seems to be I can't see him getting in again.

Heroditas

Even Keating's running mate seems to dislike him!

Frank Grimes

brick tamland wrote: »

Wow this has gone off topic.....

Anyway, just listed to newstalk podcast and Ivan Yates predicts

1) O'Brion
2) Fitzgerald
3) Kenny
4) Keating

His logic on Keating was that 1-3 are all clondalkin and DK will get a lot of the Lucan votes and transfers when other Lucan Candidate ( Curran, Tuffy, Gogarty ) are eliminated.

Just noticed that bit, Curran is a Clondalkin candidate.

Heroditas

I think Adrian Kavanagh from Maynooth University is brilliant and he really knows his stuff.
According to his blog HERE, we will see 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 Lab and 1 other
So, the question is who is the "other"? Gino Kenny or Paul Gogarty?

Frank Grimes

Heroditas wrote: »

I think Adrian Kavanagh from Maynooth University is brilliant and he really knows his stuff.
According to his blog HERE, we will see 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 Lab and 1 other
So, the question is who is the "other"? Gino Kenny or Paul Gogarty?

Gino Kenny. I'm still thinking O'Broin/Fitzgerald/Kenny +1; not sure on the +1 though but I don't think it'll be Tuffy.

Does anyone know anything about the two independents Haroon Khan and Patrick Akpoveta?

Heroditas

Frank Grimes wrote: »

Gino Kenny. I'm still thinking O'Broin/Fitzgerald/Kenny +1; not sure on the +1 though but I don't think it'll be Tuffy.

Does anyone know anything about the two independents Haroon Khan and Patrick Akpoveta?

Nothing apart from the fact that definitely one, maybe both of them ran the last time!
I seem to remember Haroon campaigning for more cricket pitches the last time.
Patrick definitely ran and seemed to centre his campaign around the churches in the village in Lucan

Frank Grimes

Heroditas wrote: »

Nothing apart from the fact that definitely one, maybe both of them ran the last time!
I seem to remember Haroon campaigning for more cricket pitches the last time.
Patrick definitely ran and seemed to centre his campaign around the churches in the village in Lucan

Thanks. I can't find much online other than references to Patrick Akpoveta running in the last local election.

Hotblack Desiato

average_runner wrote: »

So what about this in the Irish Independent so

"It had losses of €700,000 last year and cannot benefit from a hike in fares, as it pays these to the State and gets a flat rate of €100,000 a day to run the service."

Article link : http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/minister-no-plan-to-halt-strike-by-luas-workers-34463819.html

Assuming that report is accurate (this IS the Indo, and it's quite possible they confused the daily fine with the daily fee. I would have thought the daily fee to run the service was commercially confidential) that's still not what you said. You said the state "funds" Luas €100k per day, it doesn't, because the NTA gets the fare income. Your post implied there is a subsidy of 100k per day net of fare income, there isn't.

Yeah of course the government can borrow billions,

We cut capital investment i.e. schools, hospitals, transport etc. down to the bone in the recession, but these things are needed and yes that includes major public transport investment in Dublin. The outgoing government just kicked it into touch for short-term political reasons, not because PT investment in Dublin is not needed, and not because it doesn't make economic sense to do so.

but what idiot would do that in the current market when millions is getting wiped off shares on a daily basis, another risk of the banks going under and and looks like a worst recession than the last one coming!!

That's all irrelevant and/or speculation.

Hotblack Desiato

brick tamland wrote: »

Wow this has gone off topic.....

Anyway, just listed to newstalk podcast and Ivan Yates predicts

1) O'Brion
2) Fitzgerald
3) Kenny
4) Keating

His logic on Keating was that 1-3 are all clondalkin and DK will get a lot of the Lucan votes and transfers when other Lucan Candidate ( Curran, Tuffy, Gogarty ) are eliminated.

Does anyone at all have a good word to say about Keating? I see him being the first 'major party' candidate eliminated.

Heroditas

brick tamland wrote: »

Wow this has gone off topic.....

Anyway, just listed to newstalk podcast and Ivan Yates predicts

1) O'Brion
2) Fitzgerald
3) Kenny
4) Keating

His logic on Keating was that 1-3 are all clondalkin and DK will get a lot of the Lucan votes and transfers when other Lucan Candidate ( Curran, Tuffy, Gogarty ) are eliminated.

Just going back to this. I have quite a bit of time for Yates but his logic is all over the place on this one and he doesn't know the constituency.
1 & 3 are Clondalkin alright but Fitzgerald polls strongly across the whole constituency.
Also, Curran is Clondalkin-based.
The Lucan vote will be between Tuffy, Gogarty and Keating (after you consider Fitzgerald)
Keating also polls quite well in Palmerston.
It remains to be seen how the likes of McNally might affect the Lucan vote.
What might ultimately drag Keating across the line is how many of Fitzgerald's transfers actually go to him!

Frank Grimes

Heroditas wrote: »

Just going back to this. I have quite a bit of time for Yates but his logic is all over the place on this one and he doesn't know the constituency.

I think that's basically it too.

hmmm

It's all about transfers for Keating - if people decide they want to keep the current government, you have no choice but to vote for him. It's not all about local issues or whoever gets the pothole filled.

I think Gogarty might spring a surprise - if you wanted a left leaning candidate, but the stench from SF and the complete loopers on the far left put you off, he's a safe choice for the middle class mammy.

Heroditas

hmmm wrote: »

I think Gogarty might spring a surprise - if you wanted a left leaning candidate, but the stench from SF and the complete loopers on the far left put you off, he's a safe choice for the middle class mammy.

I'd go for McNally in that case but the Social Democrats just don't have a high enough profile in the area.

brick tamland

hmmm wrote: »

I think Gogarty might spring a surprise - if you wanted a left leaning candidate, but the stench from SF and the complete loopers on the far left put you off, he's a safe choice for the middle class mammy.

Don't think so. He only got circa 1500 votes last time. Nowhere near even been close. I don't think he's repaired his reputation enough yet. Maybe I'm wrong

stoneill

Derek Keating will have hard battle to get back in.
One he signed up to FG he lost a lot of support - he was good as a councilor, not good as a TD.
He made a mess of promoting himself onto to be caught trying to nab all the Lucan Gazettes in the area.

For those of you who are blow-ins - Lucan has been campaigning for a swimming pool for the past 40 years, not 10 as some of you think.
The population has grown, this thing about people coming up from the country to "save" Dublin - that's just silly talk.
People go to where the work is. Whether or not people came up from the country or not - the population would still have grown to the 40,000
that it is.

You are where you are and while you are there you need to try and make the best for yourself, and more importantly for you kids and their kids.
This government did not do anything for Lucan. Luas was knocked on the head. St Eds aminity zone is gone. Liffey Valley green space is dead.
There is very little cleaning and upkeep from the council, the Lucan Tidy Towns committee do all the hedge trimming as far as I can see.
The parks are a mess with rubbish and ant-social behaviour.

The only thing keeping Lucan going as a community are volunteer groups, and it seems to be the same few people doing all the work.

average_runner

brick tamland wrote: »

Don't think so. He only got circa 1500 votes last time. Nowhere near even been close. I don't think he's repaired his reputation enough yet. Maybe I'm wrong

Did he not cruise in on the last local council vote?

average_runner

stoneill wrote: »

Derek Keating will have hard battle to get back in.
One he signed up to FG he lost a lot of support - he was good as a councilor, not good as a TD.
He made a mess of promoting himself onto to be caught trying to nab all the Lucan Gazettes in the area.

For those of you who are blow-ins - Lucan has been campaigning for a swimming pool for the past 40 years, not 10 as some of you think.
The population has grown, this thing about people coming up from the country to "save" Dublin - that's just silly talk.
People go to where the work is. Whether or not people came up from the country or not - the population would still have grown to the 40,000
that it is.

You are where you are and while you are there you need to try and make the best for yourself, and more importantly for you kids and their kids.
This government did not do anything for Lucan. Luas was knocked on the head. St Eds aminity zone is gone. Liffey Valley green space is dead.
There is very little cleaning and upkeep from the council, the Lucan Tidy Towns committee do all the hedge trimming as far as I can see.
The parks are a mess with rubbish and ant-social behaviour.

The only thing keeping Lucan going as a community are volunteer groups, and it seems to be the same few people doing all the work.

Your obviously living in a different Lucan than where I am. For example:
1) The running club got a 200,000 grant to build a new track
2)Sarsfields got a big grant also
3)Some of the football clubs got good grants also.
4)Griffeen Park is cut twice a month
5)Hedges get cut every year where we are.
6)The street cleaning machine is out every 2 weeks
7)The grass areas beside the road is cut every 2/3 weeks also.
8)New playground in Griffeen, other one getting upgraded there also and a new one down by larkfield


As for the Luas getting knocked on the head, that was brillant, I get the luas from our inlaws most days, it takes longer than the bus and the bus service was slashed. The route they picked for Lucan luas would of took 50-60 mins to get into town if not more and going thru bad areas, it would be like the red line and trust me thats not a good thing.


As in relation to Keating, for sure a better councillor than TD.

Dodge

average_runner wrote: »

Did he not cruise in on the last local council vote?

He was 4th in Lucan with 1,221 1st preferences. Elected on the 11th count behind SF, FG and independent Guss O'Connell

Dodge

Oh and I think voting for a TD on the basis of who'll deliver a swimming pool is lunacy. That's what Councillors are for. TDs should be about running the country not solely about their local area.

average_runner

Dodge wrote: »

Oh and I think voting for a TD on the basis of who'll deliver a swimming pool is lunacy. That's what Councillors are for. TDs should be about running the country not solely about their local area.

Totally agree with you there, TD should be about at national level but should keep a presence in the area like Fitzgerald has.

Sadly in Ireland we play the local politics instead.

Heroditas

Next politician who knocks on my door, I'm going to ask when Weston is going to be upgraded to an international airport.
We deserve one out here in Lucan.
I also want a new football/rugby/GAA stadium that can hold 30,000
Maybe another motorway to bypass the Ring Road...

average_runner

Heroditas wrote: »

Next politician who knocks on my door, I'm going to ask when Weston is going to be upgraded to an international airport.
We deserve one out here in Lucan.
I also want a new football/rugby/GAA stadium that can hold 30,000
Maybe another motorway to bypass the Ring Road...

Only one has knocked on my door so far!!

Capt'n Midnight

So Fitzgerald is fairly sure and after that it's devil take the hindmost.

Curran, Gogarty, Keating, Tuffy have also all been TD's but I can't see Gogarty or Curran getting back.

Tuffy would probably come back ahead of Keating. If people are transferring to the government partners and either Tuffy or Keating are eliminated that should get the other past the post.


Predictions of O'Brion topping the poll means nothing because any SF candidate pretty much has to top the poll to have any chance because they are transfer toxic. What is interesting is how many of those who deserted FF for SF last will go back. If Curran does well then O'Brion may suffer. The left wing vote is split, and all pretty much saying the same thing ( water , 8th , social housing etc. ) and some left wing votes will go to Tuffy.

Lucan and Clondalkin both have similar populations so if you are only getting votes from one you'll need to get 40% of those votes. And that's going to bite most of the candidates. And Palmerstown is there too and more like Lucan.


It'll take a few counts to sort out. Will probably depend on the order of eliminations. It could be nailbiting time when there's four left in the race because the number of votes being transferred will be going up.

masti123

Irish Independent offers its take on the Dublin Mid-West constituency:

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/former-polltopper-tuffy-in-serious-danger-as-broin-to-secure-seat-34473314.html

average_runner

masti123 wrote: »

Irish Independent offers its take on the Dublin Mid-West constituency:

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/former-polltopper-tuffy-in-serious-danger-as-broin-to-secure-seat-34473314.html

I think Curran will come third, he pulled a big first vote in the last election and alot will return back to him that voted for Keating the last time.

With AAA-PBP backing adams, that could hurt their vote

emo72

enda really really went a full 180 from the weekend with his "WHINGERS" and "No, I wont apologise", to this in the journal.ie........

Meanwhile, Enda Kenny admitted earlier that he makes mistakes “the same as everybody else”. The Taoiseach was speaking at the end of campaign that has been marred by a series of gaffes.

i can see now why he gets slagged about not being let out without his handlers.

also read the indo today and not surprisingly very anti SF throughout. with many sections of the media warning me and trying to scare me if i vote for them, im inclined to be a bit naughty and vote for them.

Heroditas

emo72

cant argue with that:pac:

unkel

Heroditas wrote: »

I'm going to ask when Weston is going to be upgraded to an international airport.

It already was a few decades ago. An international airport without any checks. Isn't that how a local criminal family made several billion? :cool:

eamonnq

unkel wrote: »

It already was a few decades ago. An international airport without any checks. Isn't that how a local criminal family made several billion? :cool:

Says 'Senor Fring' !!

average_runner

It was very busy in Esker School this morning around 7:30!!

phasers

https://www.twitter.com/RTEdubMIDWEST/status/703539358901657600

Genuinely surprised that Curran did that well.

Frank Grimes

phasers wrote: »

https://www.twitter.com/RTEdubMIDWEST/status/703539358901657600

Genuinely surprised that Curran did that well.

I can't believe he's doing so well, it's like there's been a breakout of collective amnesia.

Nika Bolokov

O'Broin
FitzGerald
Curran
Kenny

Such poor options amongst the non left wing candidates got Curran in.

Such a big vote FF might run two Candidates at the next election.....in 6 months.......
.

Capt'n Midnight

Didn't expect Tuffy to do that badly. From two TD's to a quarter of a quota. :eek:
20% +1 vote will get you in. So O'Broin and Fitzgerald can relax.

Curran is probably safe too

And going out on a limb here, :pac:
looks like someone from the left, *awaits* transfers.

https://twitter.com/RTEdubMIDWEST
100% tally: O'Broin 22.54%, Fitzgerald 21.11%, Curran 16.09%, Kenny 10.73%, McNally 6.15, Keating 5.42%, Gogarty 5.89,% Tuffy 4.88%

Capt'n Midnight

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

Such poor options amongst the non left wing candidates got Curran in.

Such a big vote FF might run two Candidates at the next election.....in 6 months.......

I'd also argue that too many options amongst the left wing candidates also helped.

Keating is ex-FF, ex-PD , ex-independent and probably soon to be ex-FG on that performance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJc_q8eH2ng

average_runner

A ff h government means no pool for lucan, we get nothing off them

Nika Bolokov

average_runner wrote: »

A ff h government means no pool for lucan, we get nothing off them

That is the mentality that has seen two Healy Raes elected in Kerry, Lowry in Tipperary and a mish mash of communists and single issue candidates elected today .

National infrastructure, housing and public services enhanced through a nationally coordinated plan is what's needed and we we will get none of that due to the incoherent mess that will govern the country shortly.

Lucan needs a hell of a lot more than a swimming pool.

average_runner

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

That is the mentality that has seen two Healy Raes elected in Kerry, Lowry in Tipperary and a mish mash of communists and single issue candidates elected today .

National infrastructure, housing and public services enhanced through a nationally coordinated plan is what's needed and we we will get none of that due to the incoherent mess that will govern the country shortly.

Lucan needs a hell of a lot more than a swimming pool.

I didn't vote on local issues, if you read through the posts I always backed national issues.

Ps the raes got in because the government has failed rural Ireland.


Lucan is not that bad off in fairness, it has a lot, thank god

Capt'n Midnight

http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/constituencies/dublin-mid-west/

The second count has been completed in Dublin Mid West, where the surplus of SF's Eoin Ó Broin was distributed.

No candidate was elected but AAA-PBP candidate Gino Kenny increased his vote by 628 and now has 5,257.

Former FF TD John Curran is also polling strongly on 7,054 - he received 83 transfer votes.

After 3rd count Curran now on 7109 and Kenny on 5270

Interesting transfers

emo72

fair play for posting the dexys video. its a great song. dont know bugger all about gino but guess hes clondalkin based. surprised gogarty didnt do better though.

Hotblack Desiato

Frank Grimes wrote: »

I can't believe he's doing so well, it's like there's been a breakout of collective amnesia.

Completely screw over the country, and the electorate will forgive you five years later.

I despair...

average_runner

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Completely screw over the country, and the electorate will forgive you five years later.

I despair...

I don't think it's the country forgives you, it's either your left or right.

Personally I would Like fg and ff to say to no and let the left form it and see how long it last.

It be the best move fg and ff could make.
Personally I don't think there is one good party out there.

Hotblack Desiato

average_runner wrote: »

I don't think it's the country forgives you, it's either your left or right.

So which are FF, left or right? Do they know themselves?

Frank Grimes

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

So which are FF, left or right? Do they know themselves?

Whatever you're having yourself :pac:

Capt'n Midnight

Frank Grimes wrote: »

Whatever you're having yourself :pac:

+1
They are populist.
They pamper to what people say they want.

average_runner

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

+1
They are populist.
They pamper to what people say they want.

Ff are right as would fg. Lab don't know what they are, rest are left.

Heroditas

All things considered, the Social Democrats candidate did extremely well, finishing in 5th ahead of three people who have been TDs and councillors in the areas for a long time - Gogarty, Tuffy and Keating.
Shows there's quite an appetite for the party in the area.