General Election 2016 - Wicklow

BoJack Horseman

So, the time will be soon upon all us good Wicklow folk to make our mark & elect the next batch of 5 to take their seats in Leinster House.

Here are some links people might find useful:

Wicklow constituency on Wikipedia

Irish Times, election profile

And the odds for the runners & riders.

L1011

I'm very surprised to see Timmins that low - some constituency level analysis of the polls has suggested Renua are on a hiding to nothing - literally, zero seats - with the three sitting all out on their arse. That said, odds get adjusted as soon as one bet is made on a market.

Aenaes

Renua are running more than three candidates, aren't they?

I think Timmins voting against the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Bill could hurt his re-election chances more than anything else.

Annasopra

Aenaes wrote: »

Renua are running more than three candidates, aren't they?

I think Timmins voting against the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Bill could hurt his re-election chances more than anything else.

They have 3 sitting TDs and about 10 or 12 candidates.

I hear regularly that Timmins is at risk. I'm not so certain of that. I think a lot of West Wicklow votes will stay local. Remember that Godfrey Timmins got elected on a platform of "elect a TD for West Wicklow"

L1011

Aenaes wrote: »

Renua are running more than three candidates, aren't they?

Yes, but the non sitting ones are doomed from the get go.

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

. Remember that Godfrey Timmins got elected on a platform of "elect a TD for West Wicklow"

Quite a bit of West Wicklow would be better off in Kildare South in terms of where they use facilities at this stage, though.

BoJack Horseman

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

I hear regularly that Timmins is at risk. I'm not so certain of that. I think a lot of West Wicklow votes will stay local. Remember that Godfrey Timmins got elected on a platform of "elect a TD for West Wicklow"

I can't call that one myself....

There may be a niche in the county where his fetus-based defection from FG could be a strength.... plus, as you say, the west of the county has been his fiefdom for generations.

I assume that is why FG threw in a 3rd candidate from the area, Avril Cronin.
Aside from being a quota token, she may serve a purpose being a spoiler against Timmins if she can take a thousand or so western FG loyalists from Billy.

Aside from that I think the rest are more straightforward.
- Harris is a lock
- The farmer mafia should see Andrew Doyle home also
- Brady will be fine.
- Donnelly should be re-elected... it might be a bit sticky, but will probably make it.

It comes down to the 5th seat
Timmins, Ferris & a FF'r....

It will be so odd that such a strong Labour county might not return a Labour TD.... But I can't call that one..

recedite

The fact that Harris is a more mature high profile candidate now is bad, in a way, for Doyle and Timmins.
In 2011 Timmins and Doyle both polled higher than Harris. But now of the three, the betting odds favour Harris.
Which means Timmins was going to get bumped off the back of the group anyway (assuming that FG cannot hold all 3 seats forever)
But joining Renua was probably like jumping out of the fire and into the frying pan. Either way he is cooked.

Annasopra

L1011 wrote: »

Quite a bit of West Wicklow would be better off in Kildare South in terms of where they use facilities at this stage, though.

In a way the entire county wicklow makes no geographic sense. Bray/Greystones are more like Dublin suburbs. West Wicklow people would use many Kildare and Sth Dubli facilities - schools etc. Arklow is close to Gorey and so people there would probably be more Wexford centred. The Sth West - Shillelagh/Tinahely/Carnew is more like its part of Carlow

Annasopra

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I can't call that one myself....

There may be a niche in the county where his fetus-based defection from FG could be a strength.... plus, as you say, the west of the county has been his fiefdom for generations.

I assume that is why FG threw in a 3rd candidate from the area, Avril Cronin.
Aside from being a quota token, she may serve a purpose being a spoiler against Timmins if she can take a thousand or so western FG loyalists from Billy.

Aside from that I think the rest are more straightforward.
- Harris is a lock
- The farmer mafia should see Andrew Doyle home also
- Brady will be fine.
- Donnelly should be re-elected... it might be a bit sticky, but will probably make it.

It comes down to the 5th seat
Timmins, Ferris & a FF'r....

It will be so odd that such a strong Labour county might not return a Labour TD.... But I can't call that one..

I'd agree with that

I think

Harris, Doyle, Brady and Donnelly will get elected and a fight for the last seat between Casey, Ferris and Timmins. I dont see Cronin, Cuffe, Matthews or Behan as strong challengers. Cuffe is hilarious with "I live in the Bray/Greystones area".

The money being pumped in by Behan, Cuffe and Casey into their campaigns is unreal.

BoJack Horseman

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Cuffe is hilarious with "I live in the Bray/Greystones area".

Why?

Is she a carpetbagger?

Certainly she needs to replace the picture on her website with one of a human rather than a wax-work!

The money being pumped in by Behan, Cuffe and Casey into their campaigns is unreal.

Party money or their own?

Annasopra

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Why?

Is she a carpetbagger?

Certainly she needs to replace the picture on her website with one of a human rather than a wax-work!

Party money or their own?

She lives in Killiney and has a friend living in Charlesland so she uses that address. I have no idea where the money is coming from. Generally candidates have to personally finance a lot of their campaigns.

loyatemu

Brady to replace Ferris; the other 4 incumbents to get back in. Hard to see any other result.

zoobizoo

Can never forget the message that Brady put up on his FB page about IRA bomber Ed O'Brien... if that doesn't put voters off from voting for him, nothing will..

hdowney

I think Brady will get in this time. He was only off by like 100 or so votes this time. And with Timmins likely to be down votes in all areas except maybe west Wicklow I'd say Brady will get most of the slack.

Since, unless by some surpise the people of Wicklow change completely from who they are and the way they vote, both Doyle and Harris are most likely to get elected, the fight for the remaining will be interesting

loyatemu

Brady only just missed out last time, and SF are definitely on an upward trajectory nationally. He'll take a lot of the Labour vote and get in comfortably.

Mahogany

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

In a way the entire county wicklow makes no geographic sense. Bray/Greystones are more like Dublin suburbs. West Wicklow people would use many Kildare and Sth Dubli facilities - schools etc. Arklow is close to Gorey and so people there would probably be more Wexford centred. The Sth West - Shillelagh/Tinahely/Carnew is more like its part of Carlow

Agreed.

The county as a whole should be divided up tbh. The North of the county is essentially Dublin and people from Bray/Greystones have a stronger affinity to Dun Leary then Dunlavin.

...And Justice

I think Brady will get a seat , timmins has a loyal base in west Wicklow, but I still can't see him getting in.

loyatemu

2011 results: https://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2011&cons=235

Timmins came second on first prefs and was the second TD elected. I suppose the question is how much of his vote was local and how much was down to the FG surge. I'd assume FG voters from East Wicklow would've voted for the other 2 candidates. People who think Timmins won't get in - who do you think will take the seat instead?

Labour ran 3 candidates last time, and they got a quota between them which got Ferris over the line in the end. She's on her own this time and Labour are in the doldrums, really can't see her getting re-elected.

FF were nowhere near a quota last time, despite having an outgoing minister running (though Dick Roche was a bit divisive). Neither of their candidates this time are particularly high-profile and one of them apparently doesn't live in Wicklow, really can't see them getting a seat back. Casey may be personally popular in south Wicklow but I don't think FF will do at all well in the north of the county.

Harris, Brady, Timmins, Doyle, Donnelly in that order, but I don't think it'll be too close for the last seat.

Doodah7

loyatemu wrote: »

Harris, Brady, Timmins, Doyle, Donnelly in that order, but I don't think it'll be too close for the last seat.

Have to agree with this. The five Wicklow seats won't be going anywhere else. The only thing to be decided is the order. I think Timmins will get the last seat this time. Strong enough personal vote in West Wicklow but the Renua tag will hurt him...

Cheeky Chops

loyatemu wrote: »

Brady only just missed out last time, and SF are definitely on an upward trajectory nationally. He'll take a lot of the Labour vote and get in comfortably.

It was really quite exciting at the count last time. I was fascinated watching Brady as he came so close. I think he will definitely get in this time.

How can Cuffe get away with saying she lives here if she lives in Dublin?!!

palmcut

I think Brady and Harris will be elected and maybe on the first count.
I think FF will get one seat and that will be Casey.

Casey and Doyle are from the same area and I see Doyle losing to Casey.

The last two seats will be between Timmins, Ferris and Donnelly.
For various reasons I think Timmins and Ferris will get the final seats.

Timmins will be elected provided he keeps ahead of Doyle and will get elected on Doyle's transfers.

For the first time Wicklow will return two leftish candidates. Brady will exceed the quota and Ferris will draw transfers from most of the other candidates as they are eliminated.

palmcut

I think Brady and Harris will be elected and maybe on the first count.
I think FF will get one seat and that will be Casey.

Casey and Doyle are from the same area and I see Doyle losing to Casey.

The last two seats will be between Timmins, Ferris and Donnelly.
For various reasons I think Timmins and Ferris will get the final seats.

Timmins will be elected provided he keeps ahead of Doyle and will get elected on Doyle's transfers.

For the first time Wicklow will return two leftish candidates. Brady will exceed the quota and Ferris will draw transfers from most of the other candidates as they are eliminated.

loyatemu

I really can't see Ferris beating Donnelly, they were elected on the same count last time, but Labour's ratings have plummeted since then.

Donnelly's decision to form the SDs is a bit of an unknown quantity though, he was seen a something of a centre-right technocrat with a strong handle on economic issues last time, whereas the SDs have definitely positioned themselves further to the left - this may cost him some of his support from the last election.

recedite

Cheeky Chops wrote: »

How can Cuffe get away with saying she lives here if she lives in Dublin?!!

For the purposes of getting elected to Dun Laoghaire Rathdown Co Co, she apparently lives in Cabinteely.
Maybe its a case of "wherever I con a vote, that's my home".

Annasopra

loyatemu wrote: »

I really can't see Ferris beating Donnelly, they were elected on the same count last time, but Labour's ratings have plummeted since then.

Donnelly's decision to form the SDs is a bit of an unknown quantity though, he was seen a something of a centre-right technocrat with a strong handle on economic issues last time, whereas the SDs have definitely positioned themselves further to the left - this may cost him some of his support from the last election.

I think Donnelly is amazingly good at PR and image. Right wing people saw him as right wing and left wing people saw him as left wing.

...And Justice

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

I think Donnelly is amazingly good at PR and image. Right wing people saw him as right wing and left wing people saw him as left wing.

Yeah it's very true actually, I know left and right that like him. He's definitely carving out a career for himself, appealing to both sides of the political divide.

BigMoose

As a Donnelly voter last time round, the SD angle bothers me as I dont know what it stands for. Granted I've made no effort to find out either, but doubt I'll be alone there! But he is great at PR and has done will in the media since being elected.

zoobizoo

I will happily vote for Donnelly as he speaks a lot of sense and has an impressive CV : http://stephendonnelly.ie/about/

I'd rather vote for someone who has an impressive work record and education than someone who really has none...

BoJack Horseman

zoobizoo wrote: »

I will happily vote for Donnelly as he speaks a lot of sense and has an impressive CV : http://stephendonnelly.ie/about/

I'd rather vote for someone who has an impressive work record and education than someone who really has none...

That's what I thought 5 years ago....

His last 5 years spent as a 'no to everything' populist changed my mind.

recedite

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

His last 5 years spent as a 'no to everything' populist changed my mind.

He was big on "Yes" for marriage equality.
(He's a great man for spotting in advance which way populism will swing)

Cerco

recedite wrote: »

He was big on "Yes" for marriage equality.
(He's a great man for spotting in advance which way populism will swing)

He was quite impressive this evening when interviewed by Brian Dobson on six one, imho.

zoobizoo

Cerco wrote: »

He was quite impressive this evening when interviewed by Brian Dobson on six one, imho.

Yep - certainly comes across as a lot more intelligent than some of his close rivals.

I remember the local SF candidate getting very irate when I asked him what his level of education was...

BoJack Horseman

"zoobizoo wrote: »

I remember the local SF candidate getting very irate when I asked him what his level of education was...

What was the answer?

zoobizoo

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

What was the answer?

He said it was none of my business

BoJack Horseman

zoobizoo wrote: »

He said it was none of my business

also known as the: "Where are the bodies" answer.

zoobizoo

He also didn't seem to be impressed when I asked him what he worked at... says on his literature that he's self employed.

...And Justice

zoobizoo wrote: »

He also didn't seem to be impressed when I asked him what he worked at... says on his literature that he's self employed.

Most politicians are uneducated knuckle dragging opportunistic fools, that got into politics because it was handed down through their families, what's the point?

recedite

Vote them out, by voting for someone who isn't an uneducated knuckle dragging opportunistic fool. Or a lying cute hoor.
If you can find one.

They say somebody can be honest, intelligent, and a politician. But they can only be two out of those three.

Macy0161

I did have time for Donnelly, but his whole being against narrowing the tax base regarding usc, whilst at the same time also proposing narrowing the tax base by getting rid of water charges is just more of the usual populist nonsense we get from those he's supposed to be different from.

...And Justice

Macy0161 wrote: »

I did have time for Donnelly, but his whole being against narrowing the tax base regarding usc, whilst at the same time also proposing narrowing the tax base by getting rid of water charges is just more of the usual populist nonsense we get from those he's supposed to be different from.

Ya see this is where they all fall down. That's why George Lee left politics.

Annasopra

recedite wrote: »

He was big on "Yes" for marriage equality.
(He's a great man for spotting in advance which way populism will swing)

He was and he wasn't. He got his office painted for it. He spoke at a public meeting for a yes. He didn't do any canvassing. Ferris, Harris, Doyle and Brady all did a lot of canvassing for it.

As I said before he is great on his own image.

Eponymous

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

He was and he wasn't. He got his office painted for it. He spoke at a public meeting for a yes. He didn't do any canvassing. Ferris, Harris, Doyle and Brady all did a lot of canvassing for it.

As I said before he is great on his own image.

Yeah, he's all about the image... :rolleyes: You're hardly worried he's going to retain his seat while Ferris is cast out into the wilderness, are you? Of all the Liebour seats at risk, her's is probably the most precarious.

drake70

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

He was and he wasn't. He got his office painted for it. He spoke at a public meeting for a yes. He didn't do any canvassing. Ferris, Harris, Doyle and Brady all did a lot of canvassing for it.

As I said before he is great on his own image.

He was canvassing where I live.

loyatemu

some statistical modelling here: http://www.irishelectionstats.com/constituencies/wicklow/

TL,DR - Ferris and Timmins out, Brady and Casey in; not much between Timmins and Casey though. Statistical probability of Ferris holding her seat is 0% - maybe she should have distributed more sticks of rock :pac:

Article here on Timmins meeting the sheeple

BoJack Horseman

loyatemu wrote: »

some statistical modelling here: http://www.irishelectionstats.com/constituencies/wicklow/

TL,DR - Ferris and Timmins out, Brady and Casey in; not much between Timmins and Casey though. Statistical probability of Ferris holding her seat is 0% - maybe she should have distributed more sticks of rock :pac:

Article here on Timmins meeting the sheeple

That isn't using local polling though, is it?
Just national poll averages.

loyatemu

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

That isn't using local polling though, is it?
Just national poll averages.

If it was just doing that Donnelly wouldn't get a seat. The methodology is here

WheatenBriar

Timmins last time out was given Arklow to canvass that's where a lot of his votes came from
Huge canvass of the area this time by casey,it looked like an almighty crowd of them in hi vis pat casey jackets working housing estates in the town even though hes from wicklow town , not a local councillor and unheard of really down here prior to last year

Donnelly went down a few pegs in my book alright with his populism and swing to the left,it just reeks opportunism and not genuine looking

I'm thinking Brady, Harris and Doyle and Donnelly
The last seat either Casey,Ferris or Timmins
It will be sad to see Ferris lose out
One of the more fascinating constituencies, yet no tv news special on it (not counting Vincent Brownes, joe duffy with pictures affair) yet

Cerco

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Huge canvass of the area this time by casey,it looked like an almighty crowd of them in hi vis pat casey jackets working housing estates in the town even though hes from wicklow town , not a local councillor and unheard of really down here prior to last year

I thought he was from Glendalough area?

hdowney

Yea Casey is from Glendalough not Wicklow Town. He is on the Wicklow Municiple District board tho for fck knows what reason.

Someone or someone's people canvassed my door yesterday. They were making an awful unpleasant noisey racket outside. Intimidating like. But they fecked off before anyone got near the door!

WheatenBriar

Cerco wrote: »

I thought he was from Glendalough area?

I meant of course the wicklow municipal area alright

listermint

BigMoose wrote: »

As a Donnelly voter last time round, the SD angle bothers me as I dont know what it stands for. Granted I've made no effort to find out either, but doubt I'll be alone there! But he is great at PR and has done will in the media since being elected.

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

That's what I thought 5 years ago....

His last 5 years spent as a 'no to everything' populist changed my mind.

Feel Free to ask them directly about their policies right here

http://www.boards.ie/ttforum/1741

I mean its cool to go around the internet shouting bylines like 'populist' when the fact is the most popular party get the seats So that term has no real meaning. Its ludicrous.


But anyway that aside, if you are really engaged with politics then fire your questions over to them.