Brexit Referendum Superthread

Enzokk

smjm wrote: »

'Ireland in 'worst position' in Europe after Brexit'
http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0628/798605-cabinet-politics-brexit/

The Brexit negotiations and outcome really will decide if Ireland is an equal partner in the EU!

It may just be a good thing if we align closer to the EU than the UK, seeing as we share a currency and it always seemed that the UK was looking out more for themselves than for the EU as a whole.

LiamoSail

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

How can Scotland or N Ire stay in the EU? They are part of the UK. Both receive huge amounts of money from England towards their annual budgets.

Has Sturgeon and others communicated to their electorate how that void is going to be filled.

It seems Junckner and the EU are taking a tough line. Well time is on the UK's side. The longer the impasse the more damage the uncertainty will do for the EU.

There may well be no invoking of Article 50 until after a general election in the UK.

Scotland, in a UK outside the EU, will have to be a net contributed in order to sustain Wales and Northern Ireland.

Bob24

smjm wrote: »

'Ireland in 'worst position' in Europe after Brexit'
http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0628/798605-cabinet-politics-brexit/

The Brexit negotiations and outcome really will decide if Ireland is an equal partner in the EU!

If the question is to know whether Ireland is an equal partner compared to Germany, France, Italy, or Spain ... I think we all know the answer already: a country of 4 millions cannot have as much influence as a country if 80 millions.

I think we can get a positive outcome from the negotiation but we need a bit of luck and need to know exactly what we want to play our hand very well.

Enzokk

K-9 wrote: »

Scottish Independence is back on the agenda again.

And as we've seen with Brexit logic and economic sense often matter little in referendums. You'd think people would have learned that by now.

Independence has the momentum and emotion now, and everything since the last vote just reinforces the differences between Scotland and the rest of GB. Dismissing Scotland just makes independence surer!

The EU was in a tough position with the Scottish referendum. I am sure David Cameron wasn't shy to mention to the other leaders that the UK membership to the EU would be harmed if Scotland were to leave the UK as they are very pro EU. Now that the UK is gone I wouldn't be surprised to see the EU come out and be more positive to a independent Scotland joining the EU rather soon and without much trouble.

Is the situation with the Basque region the same as Scotland where they have their own parliament and own elections that is recognised in Madrid, or are they only hoping for independence but don't have the same structures that would ensure a smooth transition to being a nation on its own?

K-9

K-9 wrote: »

Scottish Independence is back on the agenda again.

And as we've seen with Brexit logic and economic sense often matter little in referendums. You'd think people would have learned that by now.

Independence has the momentum and emotion now, and everything since the last vote just reinforces the differences between Scotland and the rest of GB. Dismissing Scotland just makes independence surer!

Scottish independence is nothing more than a twitching corpse, unless the EU can provide an (unlikely) assurance that Scotland will be granted EU membership immediately post-independence

A Scotland without London OR Brussels is Northern Europe's answer to Albania.

And that's why all sensible Scottish people voted to Remain in 2013.

Bob24

The European Parliament just voted a resolution requesting the UK to immediately trigger article 50.

I don't believe it has any actual means to force the UK to do so, but the pressure is building-up.

And I know the EU is very much affected by this and is more than entitled to ask the UK to clarify its position, but the European Parliament requesting the British government to do something might not be a good message to send to reassure Europeans who are worried about the EU being a control freak.

Bob24

Bob24 wrote: »

The European Parliament just voted a resolution requesting the UK to immediately trigger article 50.

Not that it has any means to for the UK, but they are trying to pressure Cameron (I know the EU is very much affected by this, but the European Parliament requesting the British government to to to do something might not be a good message to send to reassure Europeans who are worried about the EU being a control freak).

Puke. I don't like this.

Exactly what Farage was trying to cause.

K-9

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Scottish independence is nothing more than a twitching corpse, unless the EU can provide an (unlikely) assurance that Scotland will be granted EU membership immediately post-independence

A Scotland without London OR Brussels is Northern Europe's answer to Albania.

And that's why all sensible Scottish people voted to Remain in 2013.

That's just opinion and ignores the latest opinion poll for example.

Bob24

Deleted User wrote: »

Puke. I don't like this.

Exactly what Farage was trying to cause.

I think so, but not only. I think lots of MEPs from less economically liberal EU countries might not be unhappy to see the UK leaving.

A Dub in Glasgo

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Scottish independence is nothing more than a twitching corpse, unless the EU can provide an (unlikely) assurance that Scotland will be granted EU membership immediately post-independence

A Scotland without London OR Brussels is Northern Europe's answer to Albania.

And that's why all sensible Scottish people voted to Remain in 2013.

You are very much deluded if this EU exit does not break up the UK with Scotland going and some serious implications for Northern Ireland

cml387

smjm wrote: »

'Ireland in 'worst position' in Europe after Brexit'
http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0628/798605-cabinet-politics-brexit/

The Brexit negotiations and outcome really will decide if Ireland is an equal partner in the EU!

We don't want to be an equal partner!
We want to remain in the EU and keep free access to the UK as part of the common travel area.
I can't see the Poles, Baltics etc. being too happy with that.

circadian

Gibraltar and Scotland's politicians are meeting to discuss the possibility of maintaining EU membership.


http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36639770


Here's an article suggesting how some member states of the UK may retain membership, by no means an easy path.

http://europe.newsweek.com/how-scotland-and-n-ireland-could-retain-eu-membership-474931?rm=eu


As someone mentioned this would require a willing PM and constitutional changes/more referendums to facilitate it. There's no guarantee of that going ahead but it's up to the leaders of the states wanting to stay to drive this as hard as possible.

K-9

K-9 wrote: »

That's just opinion and ignores the latest opinion poll for example.

Lots of us have lost faith in the British polling agencies since the General Election, and Brexit hasn't soothed that cynicism.

Nevertheless, I believe a majority probably did favour Independence in the immediate aftermath of the UK returning a Brexit vote.

But things change during a referendum. I suspect many of the respondents to that poll didn't fully appreciate that Scotland would have to join the queue for EU membership, which may take many years.

Dole money isn't paid in IOUs. Scotland won't leave.

K-9

Enzokk wrote: »

The EU was in a tough position with the Scottish referendum. I am sure David Cameron wasn't shy to mention to the other leaders that the UK membership to the EU would be harmed if Scotland were to leave the UK as they are very pro EU. Now that the UK is gone I wouldn't be surprised to see the EU come out and be more positive to a independent Scotland joining the EU rather soon and without much trouble.

Is the situation with the Basque region the same as Scotland where they have their own parliament and own elections that is recognised in Madrid, or are they only hoping for independence but don't have the same structures that would ensure a smooth transition to being a nation on its own?

Not sure on the Basque region. The dynamic is a bit different this time with Britain now gone, it makes it less of a pressing concern for Spain. They've enough to be going on with forming a Government and acting the scamp with Gibraltar!

With Britain in Spain wouldn't agree, with Britain out is it that important now?

smjm

LiamoSail wrote: »

That really is disgraceful. It says it all about England really that this is the man who's party represents them in Europe. The ignorance of the Farage, like that of the majority of Englanders, never ceases to amaze. I hope Europe really makes an example of them

Yet you respond in the manner of Farage!

Merkel's speech to the Bundestag on things that we already know, but 'Leave' have said aren't so.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/28/brexit-live-cameron-eu-leaders-brussels-corbyn-confidence

We will make sure that negotiations will not be carried out as a cherry-picking exercise. There must be and there will be a palpable difference between those countries who want to be members of the European family and those who don’t ...

Whoever wants to leave this family cannot expect to shed all its responsibilities but keep the privileges ...

Those for example, who want free access to the single market will in return have to respect European basic rights and freedoms ... That’s true for GB just as much as for the others.

Free acccess to the single market is granted to those who accept the four basic European freedoms - that of people, goods, services and capital.Norway for instance is not a member of the European Union but has access to the single market because it accepts open migration from the European Union.

She said negotiations would not start, either formally or informally, until the UK formally initiated the withdrawal process.

Mr. Farage

LiamoSail wrote: »

That really is disgraceful. It says it all about England really that this is the man who's party represents them in Europe. The ignorance of the Farage, like that of the majority of Englanders, never ceases to amaze. I hope Europe really makes an example of them

I hope Europe do also as it will only expose the euro project for what it is even further and hasten other nations to leave.

K-9

cml387 wrote: »

We don't want to be an equal partner!
We want to remain in the EU and keep free access to the UK as part of the common travel area.
I can't see the Poles, Baltics etc. being too happy with that.

Our arrangements preceded the EU though plus there's the GFA to consider.

Mr. Farage

Bob24 wrote: »

The European Parliament just voted a resolution requesting the UK to immediately trigger article 50.

I don't believe it has any actual means to force the UK to do so, but the pressure is building-up.

And I know the EU is very much affected by this and is more than entitled to ask the UK to clarify its position, but the European Parliament requesting the British government to do something might not be a good message to send to reassure Europeans who are worried about the EU being a control freak.

It's just exposing what the EU is actually all about. The majority in the UK believe it and I'm sure if put to many other EU nations (which it hopefully will be shortly) they would opt out of the euro project also.

smjm

cml387 wrote: »

We don't want to be an equal partner!
We want to remain in the EU and keep free access to the UK as part of the common travel area.
I can't see the Poles, Baltics etc. being too happy with that.

Does Ireland have a veto though? Can Ireland refuse to accept an EU position that is wholly against Ireland's economic interest, or will the EU position be decided by a majority of member states?

smjm

smjm wrote: »

Does Ireland have a veto though? Can Ireland refuse to accept an EU position that is wholly against Ireland's economic interest, or will the EU position be decided by a majority of member states?

Ireland's best hope in the event that UK and EU don't find a happy medium is to get our grubby hands on structural funds for infrastructure to make up for the hole that Brexit will punch in our side.

Could be an advantageous gain if we manage it as the funds would have to be used for capital investment and not just to pay for the welfare state.

Bob24

cml387 wrote: »

We don't want to be an equal partner!
We want to remain in the EU and keep free access to the UK as part of the common travel area.
I can't see the Poles, Baltics etc. being too happy with that.

True, but at the same time the Germans want to keep selling their cars and I think they want to find some type of compromise (if you listen to Merkel, she seems much less in a rush than other leaders to see the now infamous article 50 triggered).

cml387

smjm wrote: »

Does Ireland have a veto though? Can Ireland refuse to accept an EU position that is wholly against Ireland's economic interest, or will the EU position be decided by a majority of member states?

I think we sometimes assume we'll get the concessions because it's us, the Irish, you know, everybody loves us ...great fans...craic...

Don't be at all sure that the EU will be too ready to grant our wishes.

gandalf

It would be in Britain's self interest to try and muzzle Farage and his self satisfying ego stroking gloating in Brussels.

cml387

Angela Merkel seems to have left no room to manoeveur for Britain.

"We understand that the UK doesn’t want to put forward this decision yet (article 50) , but Britain needs to understand they’ll be no negotiations whatsoever until this decision has been made."

K-9

cml387 wrote: »

Angela Merkel seems to have left no room to manoeveur for Britain.

"We understand that the UK doesn’t want to put forward this decision yet (article 50) , but Britain needs to understand they’ll be no negotiations whatsoever until this decision has been made."

So basically a stalemate then which seems fair enough considering Britain needs to get a new PM to start the process. Whitehall probably don't know where to start at the minute!

smjm

cml387 wrote: »

Angela Merkel seems to have left no room to manoeveur for Britain.

"We understand that the UK doesn’t want to put forward this decision yet (article 50) , but Britain needs to understand they’ll be no negotiations whatsoever until this decision has been made."

Merkel and Cameron might not be seen talking, but you can bet there'll be negotiations and discussions going on all over the place in the background.

swampgas

smjm wrote: »

Merkel and Cameron might not be seen talking, but you can bet there'll be negotiations and discussions going on all over the place in the background.

Indeed, but consider that Cameron already tried to negotiate concessions already, and got very little then. Why? Because the UK were looking to change the fundamental principles of the EU. I think both sides already know where the other stands.

The Leave movement want an end to freedom of movement. The EU simply can't concede that.

The UK has already wasted far too much of the EUs time and effort, so forcing them to invoke article 50 before wasting any more in futile discussions seems the right way to go.

djpbarry

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

A Scotland without London OR Brussels is Northern Europe's answer to Albania.

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Dole money isn't paid in IOUs. Scotland won't leave.

Wow – way to encapsulate perfectly the prevalent attitude towards Scotland in Southern England that many Scots are so keen to get away from.

djpbarry

Bob24 wrote: »

True, but at the same time the Germans want to keep selling their cars and I think they want to find some type of compromise (if you listen to Merkel, she seems much less in a rush than other leaders to see the now infamous article 50 triggered).

This idea that the German economy is somehow massively dependent on the UK is a piece of fiction produced by the British media. Sure, Germany trades plenty with the UK, but it trades plenty with lots of countries – the UK is far more dependent on trade with the EU than Germany is on trade with the UK.