Brexit Referendum Superthread

djpbarry

Bob24 wrote: »

With the two most influential remaining EU members having more to lose than to gain in terms of trade balance if trade barriers are introduced, while they won't "bend over backwards" they will at least be open to discussion.

Who has said otherwise?

Enzokk

Godge wrote: »

If the UK wants access to the Single Market, it will have to obey all the rules of the Single Market without having any say in it. If the EU makes a new rule - say transaction tax - the UK would just have to swallow that.


http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

See at 15:36 "Leave campaigner on trade and the Tory leadership race"

"The UK may or may not be "at the back of the queue" for a trade deal with the United States, as President Obama has said, but it would be at "the front of the queue for a trade deal with Taiwan", according to Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg."


Oh boy, oh boy, the delusions of the Leave campaigners. What in the world has Taiwan to offer the UK?

The one thing they will have is increased tension with China, I guess that is what they want, right? Not like the Chinese economy is a big deal or anything...right?

djpbarry

K-9 wrote: »

But unfortunately a lot of the leave campaign was based on this idea, 5th largest economy, forgetting you are leaving the worlds largest trading bloc.

“We’re the world’s 5th largest economy – we’ll easily be able to negotiate any trade deal we like with the world’s 2nd largest economy. We’ll just overlook the fact that the world’s largest, 3rd largest and 4th largest economies have so far failed to negotiate free trade deals with the 2nd largest.

But we’ll be fine. Promise.”.

Bob24

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is just the trade surplus and gives a misleading picture. The UK only accounts for 4-5% of the 27 other members' exports (Source).

Not sure how it is misleading, it tells you how much trade with the UK is influencing their overall trade balance.

If you prefer looking at exports only, it is the third destination for German exports and and the fourth one for French exports. Not peanuts either ...

Again I am not saying they will kneel down, but that they will definitely try to protect it and therefore be open to discussion.

ancapailldorcha

Bob24 wrote: »

Not sure how it is misleading, it tells you how much trade with the UK is influencing their overall trade balance.

If you prefer looking at exports only, it is the third destination for German exports and and the fourth one for French exports. Not peanuts either ...

Again I am not saying they will kneel down, but that they will definitely try to protect it and therefore be open to discussion.

Perhaps but this was the sole basis for the "everything'll be grand" aspect of the leave campaign. As has been said, The UK doesn't buy much of total EU exports and a majority of nations will need to ratify a UK-EU trade deal. It's not going to be an even spread judging by your links. If certain countries don't trade with the UK, they have no incentive to vote for a good deal for the UK.

Enzokk

K-9 wrote: »

The biggest market will have the most pull naturally enough, so British car manufacturers will have to bend to EU requirements by and large. If the EU makes regulations regarding emissions the British can't just ignore or even do a deal on them. But unfortunately a lot of the leave campaign was based on this idea, 5th largest economy, forgetting you are leaving the worlds largest trading bloc.

And as you pointed out, Hungary or Slovakia will be targeting any company that might think this isn't worth all this, Ireland in other sectors too.

If you are not manufacturing the cars that need to adhere to these standards and only import them to sell you are actually getting a great deal. If you are manufacturing, which the UK are, then they are out of luck. No say over what the standards are but have to adhere to them...that is the meaning of more control, right?

K-9

Bob24 wrote: »

Not sure how it is misleading, it tells you how much trade with the UK is influencing their overall trade balance.

If you prefer looking at exports only, it is the third destination for German exports and and the fourth one for French exports. Not peanuts either ...

Again I am not saying they will kneel down, but that they will definitely try to protect it and therefore be open to discussion.

But I suppose if we get past the "mines is bigger than yours" points, the premise was that Britain would get a better deal than they currently have.

That one is very much up in the air. The idea seems to be they'll get more favourable terms than Switzerland or Norway.

Fleawuss

The complexity of the trading relationships and the internal politics of the EU and the 27 make this an extraordinarily difficult process. The EU itself is at risk now. I don't think even the governments have any idea where this will end.

Bob24

K-9 wrote: »

But I suppose if we get past the "mines is bigger than yours" points, the premise was that Britain would get a better deal than they currently have.

That one is very much up in the air. The idea seems to be they'll get more favourable terms than Switzerland or Norway.

Sure no-one know what they will get. And I guess keeping aside the numbers my point was that the two most influential members of the EU27 have a large enough financial vested interest in having as little trade barriers as possible with the UK. Of course politics and protecting the idea of free movement will also be a large factor in the discussions, but money talks (especially for France which is already under review from the EU for breaching its budget deficit requirements).

Fleawuss

Bob24 wrote: »

Sure no-one know what they will get. And I guess keeping aside the numbers my point was that the two most influential members of the EU27 have a large enough financial vested interest in having as little trade barriers as possible with the UK. Of course politics and protecting the idea of free movement will also be a large factor in the discussions, but money talks (especially for France which is already under review from the EU for breaching its budget deficit requirements).

Have we a govt ruthless enough to exploit this situation mercilessly for whatever advantage we can get? No.

swampgas

Fleawuss wrote: »

Have we a govt ruthless enough to exploit this situation mercilessly for whatever advantage we can get? No.

I'd be very careful about being seen to be trying to exploit the situation. Ireland has a lot to lose here, and throwing away goodwill by being perceived as being "ruthless" or "merciless" might not be the best way to get a result.

We're in this for the long haul.

Suryavarman

Bob24 wrote: »

Again lets not use hyperbole and look at the facts.

The UK is the country with second largest trade surplus for Germany and the single largest for France.

With the two most influential remaining EU members having more to lose than to gain in terms of trade balance if trade barriers are introduced, while they won't "bend over backwards" they will at least be open to discussion.

That isn't how trade works. A surplus isn't a measure of success, nor is it a bad thing. The trade deficit/surplus is value free, the only thing that matters is why it is the way it is. If there is a problem in the economy seriously affecting the trade balance only then does the level of the deficit/surplus matter.

The UK has exactly as much to gain/lose from there being trade barriers involved in its trade with Germany/France as Germany/France do.

djpbarry

djpbarry wrote: »

Wow – way to encapsulate perfectly the prevalent attitude towards Scotland in Southern England that many Scots are so keen to get away from.

Many is a conveniently vague word, dim as sheep in Highland fog.

My point is a common-sense one. As soon as it is made clear to the Scots that they will be abandoned like a dirty needle at a Glasgow bus-shelter, without David or Angela to pay for rent & lighting, they'll make the exact same decision they made in 2013.

Many may disagree, but most will look back at the teat of Mother England, before setting their mouths to 'suckle'.

Bitty.

Nody wrote: »

The simple fact is EU should not, and will not, become a single country anytime soon short of extreme external pressure (think Russia going to war with USA while Aliens invade).

Careful now, you're sounding surprisingly like that Brexit lot.

The softly-softly aproach to integration necessitates a democratic deficit, which European people seem to find increasingly unacceptable.

The only way to restore faith in European Union is not by issuing vapid concessions of 'same status quo, but slower', it is to empower Europeans in a democratic federation to control their own futures.

Bob24

Suryavarman wrote: »

That isn't how trade works. A surplus isn't a measure of success, nor is it a bad thing. The trade deficit/surplus is value free, the only thing that matters is why it is the way it is. If there is a problem in the economy seriously affecting the trade balance only then does the level of the deficit/surplus matter.

The UK has exactly as much to gain/lose from there being trade barriers involved in its trade with Germany/France as Germany/France do.

Points addressed here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=100189793&postcount=3095

Bob24

swampgas wrote: »

I'd be very careful about being seen to be trying to exploit the situation. Ireland has a lot to lose here, and throwing away goodwill by being perceived as being "ruthless" or "merciless" might not be the best way to get a result.

We're in this for the long haul.

Fair point - rather than ruthless I'd say pragmatic, with clear objectives, and driven by national interest rather than political ideology. Sometimes when you know what you want you can benefit from the situation without looking ruthless.

K-9

Bob24 wrote: »

Sure no-one know what they will get. And I guess keeping aside the numbers my point was that the two most influential members of the EU27 have a large enough financial vested interest in having as little trade barriers as possible with the UK. Of course politics and protecting the idea of free movement will also be a large factor in the discussions, but money talks (especially for France which is already under review from the EU for breaching its budget deficit requirements).

They do, but the 2 largest economies and a few others are also competitors with big car manufacturing industries themselves and, what we shouldn't forget, the UK car industry is outside foreign investment. There's no Union Jack jersey to pull on any more.

So the lobbying from within the EU will be to make things harder on British car manufacturers, not easier. Leave voters were told the opposite.

K-9

swampgas wrote: »

I'd be very careful about being seen to be trying to exploit the situation. Ireland has a lot to lose here, and throwing away goodwill by being perceived as being "ruthless" or "merciless" might not be the best way to get a result.

We're in this for the long haul.

Indeed, the IDA were supposed to have been told to keep a low profile coming up to the vote, but I doubt they'll hold back now. It's what they do and are very good at it, plus it's a Central plank of our economy.

K-9

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Many is a conveniently vague word, dim as sheep in Highland fog.

My point is a common-sense one. As soon as it is made clear to the Scots that they will be abandoned like a dirty needle at a Glasgow bus-shelter, without David or Angela to pay for rent & lighting, they'll make the exact same decision they made in 2013.

Many may disagree, but most will look back at the teat of Mother England, before setting their mouths to 'suckle'.

Bitty.

Careful now, you're sounding surprisingly like that Brexit lot.

The softly-softly aproach to integration necessitates a democratic deficit, which European people seem to find increasingly unacceptable.

The only way to restore faith in European Union is not by issuing vapid concessions of 'same status quo, but slower', it is to empower Europeans in a democratic federation to control their own futures.

The problem is that message may have won the vote last time, are they going to trust London this time. Doubtful. It only needs a swing of what? 6/7%?

Again Referendums are won by momentum and feelings, the Union side have lost all that.

J Mysterio

Jeremy Corbyn. :pac: What an unbelievable gimp. No confidence of 172-40 Labour and he still trying to hang on.

A Dub in Glasgo

J Mysterio wrote: »

Jeremy Corbyn. :pac: What an unbelievable gimp. No confidence of 172-40 Labour and he still trying to hang on.

Although he is a damp squib leader, his mandate is from the Labour Party members, not the Labour Party MPs

Bob24

K-9 wrote: »

They do, but the 2 largest economies and a few others are also competitors with big car manufacturing industries themselves and, what we shouldn't forget, the UK car industry is outside foreign investment. There's no Union Jack jersey to pull on any more.

So the lobbying from within the EU will be to make things harder on British car manufacturers, not easier. Leave voters were told the opposite.

Fair point specifically on car manufacturing. Would be interesting to see if the UK is selling more cars to France/Germany than it is buying from them. Unfortunately I couldn't find figures, but while it might be the case with France I would be surprised if it was the case with Germany (at least in value).

Suryavarman

Bob24 wrote: »

Points addressed here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=100189793&postcount=3095

No they aren't. You continue to state that Germany and France having a trade surplus with the UK is relevant, whereas it isn't relevant at all.

Bob24

Suryavarman wrote: »

No they aren't. You continue to state that Germany and France having a trade surplus with the UK is relevant, whereas it isn't relevant at all.

Here:

Bob24 wrote: »

If you prefer looking at exports only, it is the third destination for German exports and and the fourth one for French exports. Not peanuts either ...

Again I am not saying they will kneel down, but that they will definitely try to protect it and therefore be open to discussion.

Harika

If you look what Germany exports to UK and what it imports you might get more info.

Germany exports to UK:

1. Vehicles: $31 billion
2. Machinery: $12.8 billion
3. Pharmaceuticals: $6.7 billion
4. Electronic equipment: $6.3 billion
5. Plastics: $3.6 billion
6. Medical, technical equipment: $3.1 billion
7. Aircraft, spacecraft: $1.7 billion
8. Iron or steel products: $1.6 billion
9. Paper: $1.5 billion
10. Aluminum: $1.5 billion

UK exports to Germany

1. Machinery: $6.5 billion
2. Aircraft, spacecraft: $5.3 billion
3. Vehicles: $4.4 billion
4. Pharmaceuticals: $4.3 billion
5. Oil: $4.1 billion
6. Electronic equipment: $3.3 billion
7. Medical, technical equipment: $1.9 billion
8. Plastics: $1.6 billion
9. Other chemical goods: $1.3 billion
10. Gems, precious metals: $1.1 billion

http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top-UK-exports.html

Conas

J Mysterio wrote: »

Jeremy Corbyn. :pac: What an unbelievable gimp. No confidence of 172-40 Labour and he still trying to hang on.

I see no reason for him to go. Whoever will replace him, will be gone after a few months to a year anyway. No point in using Corbyn as a scapegoat.

smjm

Bob24 wrote: »

Fair point - rather than ruthless I'd say pragmatic, with clear objectives, and driven by national interest rather than political ideology. Sometimes when you know what you want you can benefit from the situation without looking ruthless.

Although it's not being considered at the moment, there could come a point where Ireland's national interest requires leaving the EU and joining an economic community with the UK!

Sam Russell

Harika wrote: »

If you look what Germany exports to UK and what it imports you might get more info.

Germany exports to UK:

1. Vehicles: $31 billion
2. Machinery: $12.8 billion
3. Pharmaceuticals: $6.7 billion
4. Electronic equipment: $6.3 billion
5. Plastics: $3.6 billion
6. Medical, technical equipment: $3.1 billion
7. Aircraft, spacecraft: $1.7 billion
8. Iron or steel products: $1.6 billion
9. Paper: $1.5 billion
10. Aluminum: $1.5 billion

UK exports to Germany

1. Machinery: $6.5 billion
2. Aircraft, spacecraft: $5.3 billion
3. Vehicles: $4.4 billion
4. Pharmaceuticals: $4.3 billion
5. Oil: $4.1 billion
6. Electronic equipment: $3.3 billion
7. Medical, technical equipment: $1.9 billion
8. Plastics: $1.6 billion
9. Other chemical goods: $1.3 billion
10. Gems, precious metals: $1.1 billion

http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top-UK-exports.html

You need to consider the elasticity of demand for these goods - that will indicate the effect tariffs will have. Those buying top marque cars are not going to be affected by a small item such as a tariff. However, buying a cheap Japanese car assembled in Britain might be a lot less popular at a higher price.

The other factor is what percentage of final price is made up of the imported content. I have heard a figure of 85% of British assembled cars are imported components - gearboxes, engines, etc.

Oil is available from other sources, but North Sea oil is running out according to the arguments put forward by those opposed to Scottish independence - of course that could be a lie, but its price has halved in recent times.

It does look like the exiteers had not worked out these factors - of course the experts were on the other side of the argument.

MonsterCookie

Farage is playing a dangerous game. As if brexiting wasn't bad enough...surely he's lost credibility as an MEP if he can't resist goading?

He's a pillock.

I feel sorry for my friends and colleagues from England.

Oafley Jones

MonsterCookie wrote: »

Farage is playing a dangerous game. As if brexiting wasn't bad enough...surely he's lost credibility as an MEP if he can't resist goading?

He's a pillock.

I feel sorry for my friends and colleagues from England.

What credibility? Farage is just playing to the red top reading brigade back home.

smjm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Although he is a damp squib leader, his mandate is from the Labour Party members, not the Labour Party MPs

An indirect, yet interesting, comparison might be made with the Brexit referendum, where some people said that important decisions should be made by the experts and not left to the general public. Surely, in this case, the MP's are the experts and the party members are the general public?

(I personally agree with your point though).