Brexit Referendum Superthread

smjm

MonsterCookie wrote: »

Farage is playing a dangerous game. [...]

Farage has his eye on the next UK general election, which might not be that far away!

swampgas

German regulator moves to block Stock exchange mergers

Interesting.

Fleawuss

Why do I get a feeling after watching the news all day that a sellout is coming?

ancapailldorcha

Fleawuss wrote: »

Why do I get a feeling after watching the news all day that a sellout is coming?

It has to. There was a reason Economists, experts and international bodies all came out for remain and it has nothing to do with tinfoil hats.

Inquitus

Just browsing the United Kingdom forum on reddit and the amount of racist attacks this vote has spurred is mind blowing, German pensioner who's lived in the UK for 40 years being threatened and having dog shít thrown at her front door, people being attacked and abused in the streets and on the trams, petrol bombs thrown at Halal butchers, what an almighty mess this is turning into from politics, to ordinary people to currencies and economies, it's like a plaster has been pulled off weeping, stinking sore and maggots are writhing round everywhere.

Fleawuss

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It has to. There was a reason Economists, experts and international bodies all came out for remain and it has nothing to do with tinfoil hats.

Yep. And the sellout will cut both ways. The only question is will it precipitate the end of the EU and the emergence of the euro EU and the exit EU who trade and have movement. I can see Sturgeon getting a sharp lesson in senior hurling shortly.

mansize

Britain isn't more racist after Brexit, just more Openly racist.
They think their racism is legitimised now.
And yes, Farage is racist, xenophobic and jingoistic.

That was the biggest fear for me in the Marriage Equality referendum. If we lost some would see it as a carte blanche to be openly homophobic.

Farage and Co by their words and actions and the british people by voting, legitimised xenophobia in the UK

Tell me how

Fleawuss wrote:

I can see Sturgeon getting a sharp lesson in senior hurling shortly.

I think this is a very good way of putting it. She's done very well since Friday but the real game has yet to start for Scotland.

smjm

Inquitus wrote: »

Just browsing the United Kingdom forum on reddit and the amount of racist attacks this vote has spurred is mind blowing, German pensioner who's lived in the UK for 40 years being threatened and having dog shít thrown at her front door, people being attacked and abused in the streets and on the trams, petrol bombs thrown at Halal butchers, what an almighty mess this is turning into from politics, to ordinary people to currencies and economies, it's like a plaster has been pulled off weeping, stinking sore and maggots are writhing round everywhere.

Things could get a lot worse if the EU does play hard ball. Imagine if there were mass job losses, yet current EU immigrants were allowed to stay and net immigration levels continued to increase. That's when things could turn really nasty!

mansize

smjm wrote: »

Although it's not being considered at the moment, there could come a point where Ireland's national interest requires leaving the EU and joining an economic community with the UK!

I don't see that, i see us becoming far less reliant on the UK, as globalisation makes the world closer in terms of trade.

mansize

smjm wrote: »

Things could get a lot worse if the EU does play hard ball. Imagine if there were mass job losses, yet current EU immigrants were allowed to stay and net immigration levels continued to increase. That's when things could turn really nasty!

Things would be worse for the UK there, EU nationals have freedom of movement.

Suryavarman

smjm wrote: »

Although it's not being considered at the moment, there could come a point where Ireland's national interest requires leaving the EU and joining an economic community with the UK!

The only economic community Ireland should be joining with the UK is the EU. Leaving the EU to start and economic community with the UK would be insanity.

Inquitus

Suryavarman wrote: »

The only economic community Ireland should be joining with the UK is the EU. Leaving the EU to start and economic community with the UK would be insanity.

Agreed.

Fleawuss

Suryavarman wrote: »

The only economic community Ireland should be joining with the UK is the EU. Leaving the EU to start and economic community with the UK would be insanity.

Currently that is correct. Whether the current EU will be the EU this time next year remains to be seen. If we had a government with cojones I think the National Museum should begin planning a facility in say , Sandyford, to have a working replica of what it was like when you printed your own currency.

mansize

Fleawuss wrote: »

Currently that is correct. Whether the current EU will be the EU this time next year remains to be seen. If we had a government with cojones I think the National Museum should begin planning a facility in say , Sandyford, to have a working replica of what it was like when you printed your own currency.

Zimbabwean Dollar...

smjm

mansize wrote: »

Things would be worse for the UK there, EU nationals have freedom of movement.

We may be talking at cross purposes. I'm talking about a situation that continues to give EU citizens free movement with the UK, but simultaneously worsens the UK job market and economy. I don't foresee all EU citizens simply upping sticks and heading home. That could cause problems. Hopefully none of this will come to pass, but people [not you] should consider it when they make reckless statements about hoping the UK suffer.

smjm

Suryavarman wrote: »

The only economic community Ireland should be joining with the UK is the EU. Leaving the EU to start and economic community with the UK would be insanity.

As things stand now, you are, of course, correct. But down the line, as I made clear in my post, the situation could easily change. None of us know the outcome of the EU/UK negotiations.

Inquitus

smjm wrote: »

As things stand now, you are, of course, correct. But down the line, as I made clear in my post, the situation could easily change. None of us know the outcome of the EU/UK negotiations.

No matter what happens we would never be given a good deal, get the best of the EU from the outside and keep our 12.5% Corp Tax.......not a hope in hell, we belong in the EU til the bitter end, even if it does decide to implode.

Inquitus

Fleawuss wrote: »

Currently that is correct. Whether the current EU will be the EU this time next year remains to be seen. If we had a government with cojones I think the National Museum should begin planning a facility in say , Sandyford, to have a working replica of what it was like when you printed your own currency.

That's just nonsense.

BlitzKrieg

MonsterCookie wrote: »

Farage is playing a dangerous game. As if brexiting wasn't bad enough...surely he's lost credibility as an MEP if he can't resist goading?

He's a pillock.

I feel sorry for my friends and colleagues from England.

considering he's just made himself unemployed Farage's goal is to make himself as appealing as possible as an MP and he's already stated in interviews that he feels the wind has changed post brexit and the tories are going to go the EEA route and not limit immigration etc. So he's making sure he's not seen as part of that and stands on his own. So when the brexit voters that did vote on immigration will back him and ukip in the next general election

Suryavarman

smjm wrote: »

As things stand now, you are, of course, correct. But down the line, as I made clear in my post, the situation could easily change. None of us know the outcome of the EU/UK negotiations.

Best case scenario is that the UK joins the EEA, worst case scenario is there is no trade deal and the UK is subject to standard tariffs. In neither of those cases is it advantageous for Ireland to leave the EU.

smjm

Suryavarman wrote: »

Best case scenario is that the UK joins the EEA, worst case scenario is there is no trade deal and the UK is subject to standard tariffs. In neither of those cases is it advantageous for Ireland to leave the EU.

What would those standard tariffs amount to if they had been in place for, say, the last 12 months? I presume someone has been working out the figures.

Nody

smjm wrote: »

What would those standard tariffs amount to if they had been in place for, say, the last 12 months? I presume someone has been working out the figures.

Cars 10%; average I saw from Brexit article was 3%. The problem however is that they are targeted so it's hard to say if for example steel (with the Tata steel mill deal) would be 300% (Hi China) while Cornish Pasties would attract 1% and hence have big impact on which industries it would work for to export to EU without the deal.

smjm

Nody wrote: »

Cars 10%; average I saw from Brexit article was 3%. The problem however is that they are targeted so it's hard to say if for example steel (with the Tata steel mill deal) would be 300% (Hi China) while Cornish Pasties would attract 1% and hence have big impact on which industries it would work for to export to EU without the deal.

So they're not standard, as such. We can't know now what the tariffs will be, so we can't work out what impact they'll have on us?

Suryavarman

smjm wrote: »

So they're not standard, as such. We can't know now what the tariffs will be, so we can't work out what impact they'll have on us?

Well they are. We know what the tariffs are. They just vary depending what the product is. They're the same tariffs for every country that doesn't have a trade deal with the EU.

Enzokk

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Although he is a damp squib leader, his mandate is from the Labour Party members, not the Labour Party MPs

Will he get enough nominations from MPs to be on the ballot though? Does he need them being the current leader? I remember it was a scramble to have him on the ballot last time so I wonder if the MPs will make the same "mistake" again by nominating him to be democratic. Democracy doesn't seem to be working for either the Remain campaign, nor the Labour party right at this moment.

smjm wrote: »

Although it's not being considered at the moment, there could come a point where Ireland's national interest requires leaving the EU and joining an economic community with the UK!

Maybe if we didn't have the euro but once that decision was made its all in until the end, either enforced or until who knows what happens.

smjm wrote: »

We may be talking at cross purposes. I'm talking about a situation that continues to give EU citizens free movement with the UK, but simultaneously worsens the UK job market and economy. I don't foresee all EU citizens simply upping sticks and heading home. That could cause problems. Hopefully none of this will come to pass, but people [not you] should consider it when they make reckless statements about hoping the UK suffer.

The UK will suffer, we will suffer as we are so close to them geographically and in trade. If this was Italy leaving the EU we would have a little impact as they aren't our main trading partners.

What will happen will happen, but when you warn people that leaving will cause untold damage to the economy, when the expert financial institutions tell you it will cause damage. When 90% of the business men tell you that it will cause lots of damage and you still vote for the same damage I cannot help but not feel any sympathy.

whatever_

Enzokk wrote: »

What will happen will happen, but when you warn people that leaving will cause untold damage to the economy, when the expert financial institutions tell you it will cause damage. When 90% of the business men tell you that it will cause lots of damage and you still vote for the same damage I cannot help but not feel any sympathy.

The "experts" don't know what will happen. That is why markets have moved - the market makers don't like uncertainty. Economists are good at predicting the "incremental" changes like "what will happen when the exchange rate falls by 1%" or if "government spending is increased by 0.5%". However, ask them the big questions and they haven't a clue.

This is not going to cause untold damage. Many of us predicted that the pound would fall, and that is good for the UK economy, which has suffered from too strong a currency for a long time. Some City jobs will move to other countries (hopefully here) and the London Property Markets (Commercial and Residential) will likely fall. This will probably ripple out around the UK. All of this is good (provided it doesn't crash), and will help create a better balance in the UK economy, because manufacturing exports and jobs will rise. We don't want your sympathy. What we do want though is for "sore losers" to stop trying to talk the British economy into recession, because if that happens in Britain then it will damage Ireland's economy too.

Inquitus

whatever_ wrote: »

The "experts" don't know what will happen. That is why markets have moved - the market makers don't like uncertainty. Economists are good at predicting the "incremental" changes like "what will happen when the exchange rate falls by 1%" or if "government spending is increased by 0.5%". However, ask them the big questions and they haven't a clue.

This is not going to cause untold damage. Many of us predicted that the pound would fall, and that is good for the UK economy, which has suffered from too strong a currency for a long time. City jobs will move and the London Property Markets (Commercial and Residential) will likely fall. This will probably ripple out. All of this is good (provided it doesn't crash), and will help create a better balance in the UK economy, because manufacturing exports and jobs will rise. We don't want your sympathy. What we do want though is for "sore losers" to stop trying to talk the economy into recession, because if that happens in Britain it will damage Ireland's economy too.

With 80% of the economy Service based and less than 14% actually from manufacturing real things, do you really think the manufacturing sector is going to magically roll back 50 years of decline and counterbalance the devastation of the Service industry exit from the EU will cause?

What do you expect the UK to manufacture?

smjm

Interesting article by the UK Constitutional Law Association, arguing that the UK government cannot, constitutionally, invoke Article 50 without an Act of Parliament!

https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-barber-tom-hickman-and-jeff-king-pulling-the-article-50-trigger-parliaments-indispensable-role/