Brexit Referendum Superthread

A Dub in Glasgo

Conas wrote: »

Scotland had their chance to be leave the UK in 2014, but were too chicken to do so.

Now tough talking Nicola Sturgeon hasn't got the result she wanted, and is intent on sabotaging the result. Scotland as a nation really needs a master, as they will 'always' be too afraid to be independent.

They were chicken, they were also fed this

https://twitter.com/uk_together/status/506899714923843584

ancapailldorcha

djpbarry wrote: »

I’m guessing Birmingham’s significant population from Commonwealth states might have bought into the lie about non-EU immigrants being out-competed by EU immigrants.

Interesting....

djpbarry wrote: »

It’s not just London by the way – many other city and town centres voted remain: Newcastle, Leeds, York, Manchester, Liverpool, Norwich, Bristol, Brighton, Oxford, Cambridge and Leicester. They’re all prominent university towns is a common denominator, I guess?
Glasgow is Scotland’s capital and economic centre in all but name – Edinburgh is little more than a tourist attraction.

Makes sense though Sheffield also voted Leave. You omitted Nottingham, Durham, Southampton and others as well so the Remain vote there might not have been so strong. Always thought Edinburgh was the economic powerhouse....

LiamoSail wrote: »

I firmly believe Farage should be part of the British delegation negotiating their exit.

Completely disagree. He isn't an MP and this is a matter for Parliament to resolve. The public never voted for him.

Sam Russell

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

They were chicken, they were also fed this

https://twitter.com/uk_together/status/506899714923843584

I always thought it ironic that the Scots were told that if they voted Yes they would lose their EU membership and not be allowed to use the Pound Sterling (Sterling is in Scotland). Now they look as if, despite voting Remain, they are going to lose them the EU membership, and the Pound Sterling is in free fall.

By the way, I came across this.

Conas

Sam Russell wrote: »

I always thought it ironic that the Scots were told that if they voted Yes they would lose their EU membership and not be allowed to use the Pound Sterling (Sterling is in Scotland). Now they look as if, despite voting Remain, they are going to lose them the EU membership, and the Pound Sterling is in free fall.

By the way, I came across this.

It's actually not in free fall now. Over the last three days, it has remained stable. The FTSE is after rebounding incredibly strong, it's now at the same level it was before the sudden plunge.

K-9

Conas wrote: »

It's actually not in free fall now. Over the last three days, it has remained stable. The FTSE is after rebounding incredibly strong, it's now at the same level it was before the sudden plunge.

Hopefully it has bottomed out, will be a help to Irish exporters, especially food sectors and our own tourism sector. Will also help UK imports which they need for manufacturing.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

I always thought it ironic that the Scots were told that if they voted Yes they would lose their EU membership and not be allowed to use the Pound Sterling (Sterling is in Scotland). Now they look as if, despite voting Remain, they are going to lose them the EU membership, and the Pound Sterling is in free fall.

By the way, I came across this.

Thanks for the link. Quite informative.

Regarding sterling, it may have stabilised for now but we're in a period of deep uncertainty and while this lasts it will continue to be vulnerable to shocks.

Lemming

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Makes sense though Sheffield also voted Leave. You omitted Nottingham, Durham, Southampton and others as well so the Remain vote there might not have been so strong. Always thought Edinburgh was the economic powerhouse....

Sheffield vote was 5000 of a difference. Literally 131,000 voted one way, 136,000 voted the other way. That's, what just over 2% of the voter turnout in the difference. Turnout was 67%

Sam Russell

Cameron was stupid in not putting limits on the vote, like a minimum turnout and a minimum % saying leave, or a minimum no of home countries voting for leave. Also, making it clear that it was subject to a House of Commons free vote in the either case, or that it was purely advisory.

In the national interest covers so many bases.

Sam Russell

More on EU myths.

A Dub in Glasgo

Sam Russell wrote: »

Cameron was stupid in not putting limits on the vote, like a minimum turnout and a minimum % saying leave, or a minimum no of home countries voting for leave. Also, making it clear that it was subject to a House of Commons free vote in the either case, or that it was purely advisory.

In the national interest covers so many bases.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1979

The Scottish referendum of 1979 was a post-legislative referendum to decide whether there was sufficient support for a Scottish Assembly proposed in the Scotland Act 1978 among the Scottish electorate. This was an act to create a devolved deliberative assembly for Scotland. An amendment to the Act stipulated that it would be repealed if fewer than 40% of the total electorate voted Yes in the referendum. The result was that 51.6% supported the proposal, but with a turnout of 64%, this represented only 32.9% of the registered electorate. The Act was subsequently repealed.

The act counted the votes of those who did not vote as if they voted for the no side. A nasty little amendment to the act that was not publicised well

Bob24

Conas wrote: »

It's actually not in free fall now. Over the last three days, it has remained stable. The FTSE is after rebounding incredibly strong, it's now at the same level it was before the sudden plunge.

I am actually surprised with how stable the pound has been. It's pretty much been stuck at 1.20 in the past 2 days.

I would have expected much more volatility given how much is at stake.

Is it the calm before the storm while people are trying to figure what's next?

awec

This post has been deleted.

Sam Russell

Bob24 wrote: »

I am actually surprised with how stable the pound has been. It's pretty much been stuck at 1.20 in the past 2 days.

I would have expected much more volatility given how much is at stake.

Is it the calm before the storm while people are trying to figure what's next?

I think it is that the UK is not leaving this week, or even this year. When things become clear - as in how many big hitters are heading for the ferries - the pound will start heading south along with them. [Some might head west, but sterling will still head south].

CMOTDibbler

Bob24 wrote: »

I am actually surprised with how stable the pound has been. It's pretty much been stuck at 1.20 in the past 2 days.

I would have expected much more volatility given how much is at stake.

Is it the calm before the storm while people are trying to figure what's next?

The Bank of England led by Mark Carney who was so derided by Michael Gove had a war chest to deal with this. £250 billion if I remember correctly. I reckon it came into play on Monday when the fall started to slow.

btw, the FTSE 250 is still down about 4%. People shouldn't be looking at the 100 since it's almost all foreign companies.

Bob24

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think it is that the UK is not leaving this week, or even this year.

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

The Bank of England led by Mark Carney who was so derided by Michael Gove had a war chest to deal with this. £250 billion if I remember correctly. I reckon it came into play on Monday when the fall started to slow.

Probably a combination of those 2 things. Especially the second one - given how very stable it is there must be some kind of intervention from a central bank.

Sam Russell

Bob24 wrote: »

Probably a combination of those 2 things. Especially the second one - given how very stable it is there must be some kind of intervention from a central bank.

Probably more than one central bank. They tend to play as a team.

Sand

Interesting point that the UK media didn't question the Leave campaign on was the idea that the UK could just go and negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world.

The UK has not negotiated a trade deal since 1973, roughly 43 years ago. They currently enjoy free trade with 27 members of the EU, plus the EEA, plus 33 active free trade deals under the EU umbrella, and dozens more agreed and in the process of activation. So with a scrapped together team of diplomats, most of whom will not even have been alive the last time Britain negotiated a trade deal by itself they need to simultaneously negotiate 50+ trade deals in the space of 2 years, from the back of the queue in most cases. The EU has hundreds of of civil servants and diplomats dedicated to trade deals and the UK thinks its going to get by with Dads Army?

Wow. Just wow.

When you think back, the UK media just blandly accepted so much of the Leave campaign without challenging them on basic realities.

K-9

And thousands of pieces of EU legislation to go through.

smjm

Sand wrote: »

The UK has not negotiated a trade deal since 1973, roughly 43 years ago. They currently enjoy free trade with 27 members of the EU, plus the EEA, plus 33 active free trade deals under the EU umbrella, and dozens more agreed and in the process of activation. So with a scrapped together team of diplomats, most of whom will not even have been alive the last time Britain negotiated a trade deal by itself they need to simultaneously negotiate 50+ trade deals in the space of 2 years, from the back of the queue in most cases. The EU has hundreds of of civil servants and diplomats dedicated to trade deals and the UK thinks its going to get by with Dads Army?

'New Zealand offers UK its top trade negotiators for post-Brexit deals'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/29/new-zealand-offers-uk-its-top-trade-negotiators-for-post-brexit/

CMOTDibbler

smjm wrote: »

'New Zealand offers UK its top trade negotiators for post-Brexit deals'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/29/new-zealand-offers-uk-its-top-trade-negotiators-for-post-brexit/

I can see a sketch here involving kiwis and sheep

mickoneill31

smjm wrote: »

'New Zealand offers UK its top trade negotiators for post-Brexit deals'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/29/new-zealand-offers-uk-its-top-trade-negotiators-for-post-brexit/

Probably shouldn't use those lads for their negotiations with New Zealand.

whatstherush

Gove sticks the knife in Boris, he may not even run now

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/748435238972436480

wes

whatstherush wrote: »

Gove sticks the knife in Boris, he may not even run now

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/748435238972436480

If Boris, doesn't run, then the man is a pathetic coward. Its his mess, to sort out FFS.

Bob24

wes wrote: »

If Boris, doesn't run, then the man is a pathetic coward. Its his mess, to sort out FFS.

I was already wondering if Corbyn voted to leave even though he campaigned to stay, now I am wondering if Johnson voted to stay even though he campaigned to leave ...

Bob24

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Probably shouldn't use those lads for their negotiations with New Zealand.

Nor with any other country!

"Mister Chinese negotiator, reduce tariffs on New-Zealand dairies and I will tell those British idiots the awful deal you are offering them is a great one".

Bob24

Bob24 wrote: »

I was already wondering if Corbyn voted to leave even though he campaigned to stay, now I am wondering if Johnson voted to stay even though he campaigned to leave ...

I'm not sure there was ever a question about it. He wanted a close-ish loss.

CMOTDibbler

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm not sure there was ever a question about it. He wanted a close-ish loss.

It's quite extraordinary how internal party politicking could have such far-reaching consequences.

I can't believe the amount of coverage that has been given to Sapin's comment last night.

His answer was akin to "of course everything is on the table, we haven't even started talking yet, how can we take anything off the table. It is right to at least consider every option".

Yet all media sources have decided that this is a softening of stance? And a demonstration that the Freedom of Movement principle isn't a hard barrier to entry to the ESM.

It was on Newsnight last night if anyone wants to watch. The tone of the interview and tone of the answer are not at all demonstrative of a softening!

Enjoyed this from the Telegraph

Bob24

Deleted User wrote: »

I can't believe the amount of coverage that has been given to Sapin's comment last night.

His answer was akin to "of course everything is on the table, we haven't even started talking yet, how can we take anything off the table. It is right to at least consider every option".

Yet all media sources have decided that this is a softening of stance? And a demonstration that the Freedom of Movement principle isn't a hard barrier to entry to the ESM.

It was on Newsnight last night if anyone wants to watch. The tone of the interview and tone of the answer are not at all demonstrative of a softening!

Funnily enough I just checked Google News don't see any coverage on French media. Maybe because they know whatever Sapin says doesn't mean anything about the French government's stance;-) (there is no consistency or discipline in the government and whatever doesn't come from Valls or even Hollande can be contradicted anytime).