Brexit Referendum Superthread

Thomas_.. · 07-07-2016 1:03pm

oscarBravo wrote: »

This is unfortunately a common theme in any conversation about the EU: "Facts don't matter; the EU should make fundamental changes to its core principles to address perceptions."

Better addressing political realities in order to sustain herself.

07-07-2016 1:04pm

smjm wrote: »

And from the UK: "Okay, but we'll still trade with each other, like we do with the rest of the world. Bye now!"

The EU would have no problems with this!

The UK would though, given the makeup of their economy, their need for Single Market access is simply enormous.

UK companies relocating to the EU in order to have that access would be welcomed I'm sure.

Thomas_.. · 07-07-2016 1:08pm

Deleted User wrote: »

The EU would have no problems with this!

The UK would though, given the makeup of their economy, their need for Single Market access is simply enormous.

UK companies relocating to the EU in order to have that access would be welcomed I'm sure.

Wouldn´t be the first time when some of them would go abroad. This happened in the past 25 years for various times, just that some of them went off to Asia.

Zubeneschamali · 07-07-2016 1:09pm

smjm wrote: »

And from the UK: "Okay, but we'll still trade with each other, like we do with the rest of the world. Bye now!"

Followed by real panic, capital flight, stock market crash, bank failures, emergency budgets, erosion of wages and welfare thanks to a currency crash, protests in the streets, riot police, baton charges...

smjm · 07-07-2016 1:13pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Followed by real panic, capital flight, stock market crash, bank failures, emergency budgets, erosion of wages and welfare thanks to a currency crash, protests in the streets, riot police, baton charges...

You forgot the floods and the plague of locusts!

smjm · 07-07-2016 1:15pm

Deleted User wrote: »

[...]UK companies relocating to the EU in order to have that access would be welcomed I'm sure.

UK companies have been relocating for years due to cheap labour costs in eastern Europe etc. It's not something new, or indeed unique to the UK.

07-07-2016 1:17pm

smjm wrote: »

UK companies have been relocating for years due to cheap labour costs in eastern Europe etc. It's not something new, or indeed unique to the UK.

I never said it was either new or unique.

Is encouraging that to happen a good thing for the UK Economy though?

Deleted User wrote: »

The EU would have no problems with this!

The UK would though, given the makeup of their economy, their need for Single Market access is simply enormous.

UK companies relocating to the EU in order to have that access would be welcomed I'm sure.

Makes far better sense when it's presented as a full quote...

Thomas_.. · 07-07-2016 1:22pm

Some article about how the Netherlands are now considering the Brexit in the light of their own right-wing anti-EU populists:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36722915

Thomas_.. · 07-07-2016 1:34pm

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36723220

How might Brexit change the existing landscape of British politics, and how might the main political parties position themselves?

With the thunderous explosions from the referendum vote still ringing in our ears, new battle lines in British politics are being drawn up.

Old alliances may crumble as new ones are forged.

This is not about the Westminster leadership elections. They are part of it, but only a part. Think of the players you see every day on the TV as the tip of the iceberg. The iceberg which sank the Titanic only did so because of the mass behind it, lurking underwater.

New movements are afoot, for the moment subterranean. Earnest meetings are being held in homes and offices and universities.

They may wither away. They may become a mass movement that re-define politics.
...

djpbarry · 07-07-2016 1:39pm

smjm wrote: »

The same can easily be said of the EU. It's hardly booming!

Nobody said it was, but that was not your point.

But seeing as we’re on the subject, prior to the referendum, the UK economy wasn’t exactly on a sound footing. Brexit may well expose the country’s dangerous over-reliance on London.

smjm wrote: »

And from the UK: "Okay, but we'll still trade with each other, like we do with the rest of the world. Bye now!"

Well, no, because the UK wants free access to the single market, remember?

djpbarry · 07-07-2016 1:40pm

Bob24 wrote: »

Which would look like another failure of the European project after the UK leaving the EU, especially if no deal/compromise is found with the UK.

The EU respecting the outcomes of referenda makes the EU look bad how?

Bob24 wrote: »

How good is a single market if members start leaving it one after the other because they are not happy with some of the conditions attached to it?

Obviously pretty good, seeing as how the UK and Switzerland want access to it.

Bob24 wrote: »

Is it not a fair statement to say that if the UK leaves without a deal and the Switzerland leaves they EEA it will be a blow to the European project?

Surely a far bigger blow to the UK and Switzerland?

djpbarry · 07-07-2016 1:42pm

Thomas_.. wrote: »

Some article about how the Netherlands are now considering the Brexit in the light of their own right-wing anti-EU populists:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36722915

It doesn’t say anything about the Netherlands considering a referendum. It says twats like Geert Wilders want one, but that’s about it.

There’s been plenty of talk from the British press lately about EU-wide disillusionment with the EU and the fact that we’re supposedly on the brink of a spate of referenda across the continent. The reality is that there is very little support for such referenda anywhere. For example:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/four-out-of-five-irish-voters-say-uk-was-wrong-to-leave-eu-1.2712755

Even those in the anti-EU camp will be waiting to see what becomes of Britain before walking the same road – so far, not so good.

Thomas_.. · 07-07-2016 1:47pm

djpbarry wrote: »

It doesn’t say anything about the Netherlands considering a referendum. It says twats like Geert Wilders want one, but that’s about it.

There’s been plenty of talk from the British press lately about EU-wide disillusionment with the EU and the fact that we’re supposedly on the brink of a spate of referenda across the continent. The reality is that there is very little support for such referenda anywhere. For example:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/four-out-of-five-irish-voters-say-uk-was-wrong-to-leave-eu-1.2712755

Even those in the anti-EU camp will be waiting to see what becomes of Britain before walking the same road – so far, not so good.

It says that there is rather little appetite for a referendum among the Netherlands citizens. Wilders is just like Farage´s clone and might be more careful now.

Yes, the others in the EU wide anti-EU camp will just wait and seen how things unfold.

Bob24 · 07-07-2016 1:57pm

Thomas_.. wrote: »

Some article about how the Netherlands are now considering the Brexit in the light of their own right-wing anti-EU populists:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36722915

I like the humour of one of the guys quoted in the article!

When talking about the EU:

"It's like Brussels sprouts, you might not like them but you eat them because you know they're good for you."

smjm · 07-07-2016 2:05pm

djpbarry wrote: »

Nobody said it was, but that was not your point.

But seeing as we’re on the subject, prior to the referendum, the UK economy wasn’t exactly on a sound footing. Brexit may well expose the country’s dangerous over-reliance on London.

You won't find me disagreeing with you there. The UK needed a shake-up either way; Brexit just forces it along. Short term pain - long term gain.

djpbarry wrote:

Well, no, because the UK wants free access to the single market, remember?

The EU wants free access to the UK as well, as many exporters will make very clear to their governments. Tariffs help no-one. The sticking point is whether free access to markets is tied to free movement of people, in either direction, without any restrictions. We'll have to wait and see.

Bob24 · 07-07-2016 2:05pm

djpbarry wrote: »

The EU respecting the outcomes of referenda makes the EU look bad how?

Of course not, but not sure how you got that from my post? ... I said seeing 2 partners leaving without a deal would be a failure for the European project.

djpbarry wrote: »

Obviously pretty good, seeing as how the UK and Switzerland want access to it.

Sorry? The post you quoted was referring to the consequences if they were to leave.

djpbarry wrote: »

Surely a far bigger blow to the UK and Switzerland?

Maybe yes maybe not. But should the EU primarily care about the consequences on itself or consequences on non-member states? Are you most worried about Switzerland than about the EU?

Bob24 · 07-07-2016 2:10pm

djpbarry wrote: »

It doesn’t say anything about the Netherlands considering a referendum. It says twats like Geert Wilders want one, but that’s about it.

You might want to remember what happened last time he wanted a referendum. Dutch law made it easy for him to get it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_Ukraine%E2%80%93European_Union_Association_Agreement_referendum,_2016

Zubeneschamali · 07-07-2016 2:13pm

smjm wrote: »

You forgot the floods and the plague of locusts!

I remember Thatcher, the miners strike, the poll tax, UK police on horseback charging lines of men...

It's easy to think that sort of stuff can only happen in Foreign Places.

smjm · 07-07-2016 2:21pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I remember Thatcher, the miners strike, the poll tax, UK police on horseback charging lines of men...

It's easy to think that sort of stuff can only happen in Foreign Places.

I remember them all as well - but your apocalyptic scenario isn't something predicted by any level-headed person.

Zubeneschamali · 07-07-2016 2:23pm

smjm wrote: »

The sticking point is whether free access to markets is tied to free movement of people, in either direction, without any restrictions. We'll have to wait and see.

I can see why the Brexiters pretended it was up for negotiation during the campaign, they had to say that, but we all know the answer is "Of course they are tied! Jeez!".

djpbarry · 07-07-2016 2:27pm

smjm wrote: »

You won't find me disagreeing with you there. The UK needed a shake-up either way; Brexit just forces it along.

Was Brexit really the best way to achieve it?

smjm wrote: »

The sticking point is whether free access to markets is tied to free movement of people, in either direction, without any restrictions. We'll have to wait and see.

Well, no, we won’t. Free movement of labour is a fundamental principle of the EU and it is not going to change to suit the Kippers. It is breathtakingly arrogant of (certain people within) the UK to assume that the EU will renege on it’s core principles to keep the UK sweet when the British have JUST VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU!!!

djpbarry · 07-07-2016 2:27pm

Bob24 wrote: »

Of course not, but not sure how you got that from my post? ... I said seeing 2 partners leaving without a deal would be a failure for the European project.

So, the EU puts in place a mechanism for members to leave, the UK avails of this mechanism and this is somehow a failure of the EU?

Bob24 wrote: »

Sorry? The post you quoted was referring to the consequences if they were to leave.

And my point is the UK don’t want to leave (the single market)? They have made that abundantly clear.

Bob24 wrote: »

Maybe yes maybe not.

There’s no maybe about it – sure, the UK leaving the EU is bad for everyone, but the UK has far more to lose here than the EU does.

micosoft · 07-07-2016 2:29pm

smjm wrote: »

Of course not - it will take time - and they'll have plenty of time. You don't expect them to sit back and do nothing do you?
Plus, of course, outside of EU regulation, they might be able to undercut EU manufacturing exports to the wider world. Again, it would take time - but it shouldn't be dismissed.

Huh? It can easily be dismissed out of hand!
- Why is Germany leading the world in manufacturing if EU £regulations" is the problem? Please explain you logic that the EU and not British Government policy has run down British Manufacturing. And before you say it - Dyson - the only major British manufacturer that supported Brexit manufacturers it's vacuum cleaners in Malaysia.

- They can't sell to EU countries or any other (USA/Japan/Canada) for that matter without complying with that countries regulations? Regulations regulate things that are important for the country they are being sold in like safety, compatibility and other basic requirements of a trading bloc. Obviously having one set of regulations in Europe instead of 28 makes much more sense. The only people who wouldn't like that are failing manufacturers who want protection against free trade by using regulations in a local market to block new entrants.

Thomas_.. · 07-07-2016 2:30pm

smjm wrote: »

I remember them all as well - but your apocalyptic scenario isn't something predicted by any level-headed person.

There´s no need to have predictions by level-headed persons. When things are deteriorating and as it looks like it will come to that sooner than one thinks, the riots on the streets will take place. The last ones weren´t predicted either, and they were about Student fees in the first place. This was just at the beginning of Cameron´s first term as PM. When more parts of the society will get affected by a deep going recession, it might go even worse than then.

You don´t have to be a Cassandra to see what can be and when this might kick in, without having a precise date.

Zubeneschamali · 07-07-2016 2:32pm

smjm wrote: »

I remember them all as well - but your apocalyptic scenario isn't something predicted by any level-headed person.

Many level headed people expect the UK to fold and take a Norway style deal with free movement, access to the market, payments to the EU, acceptance of EU rules and regulations, and zero representation at the EU table.

Because the other option could get apocalyptic fast.

Polo_Mint · 07-07-2016 2:36pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Many level headed people expect the UK to fold and take a Norway style deal with free movement, access to the market, payments to the EU, acceptance of EU rules and regulations, and zero representation at the EU table.

Because the other option could get apocalyptic fast.

Or they could just stay in the EU

smjm · 07-07-2016 2:40pm

djpbarry wrote: »

Was Brexit really the best way to achieve it?

No, but it's done now either way.

djpbarry wrote:

Well, no, we won’t. Free movement of labour is a fundamental principle of the EU and it is not going to change to suit the Kippers. It is breathtakingly arrogant of (certain people within) the UK to assume that the EU will renege on it’s core principles to keep the UK sweet when the British have JUST VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU!!!

Fair enough; tariffs it is. Doesn't help either side, but not the end of the world.

Bob24 · 07-07-2016 2:40pm

djpbarry wrote: »

So, the EU puts in place a mechanism for members to leave, the UK avails of this mechanism and this is somehow a failure of the EU?

Still no, but again I don't understand how you are getting this from what I wrote. What I said is that the simple fact that a member decides to leave is a failure for the European project (until recently talking of members leaving was not even a thing and this is setting a precedent).

djpbarry wrote: »

There’s no maybe about it – sure, the UK leaving the EU is bad for everyone, but the UK has far more to lose here than the EU does.

If no deal is signed there will be 2 losers (and of course the UK is in a minority and is the one leaving which makes is position weaker, but on the other hand it will not have to compromise between 27 national interests which will give it clearer objectives once it puts itself together).

But again do you think EU leaders should care more about making sure that the UK is the biggest loser or care more about minimising the consequences on the EU?

Thomas_.. · 07-07-2016 2:41pm

Polo_Mint wrote: »

Or they could just stay in the EU

That has already been ruled out.

smjm · 07-07-2016 2:44pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Many level headed people expect the UK to fold and take a Norway style deal with free movement, access to the market, payments to the EU, acceptance of EU rules and regulations, and zero representation at the EU table.

Because the other option could get apocalyptic fast.

The other option is tariffs, as I've said elsewhere, not the end of the world.

Brexit Referendum Superthread

Comments