Brexit Referendum Superthread

johnnyskeleton

Mod Note:

A lot of posters need to up the standard of their posting.

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

There should be a rule in the charter here, that when anyone gives a nuanced opinion, they have to give it twice. Because it apparently takes a second post to explain everything that doesn't fit into a black & white narrative.

There's no call to make facetious comments like that.

Deleted User wrote: »

I do hate when people take sentences out of quotes which are terribly relevant to what they then write!

If someone is deliberately misconstruing your posts by selectively quoting, then feel free to report them as a troll. Otherwise, you can either respond to the point that they take issue with if you like or not. Asserting that people are selectively quoting you does not help the flow of the thread.

Bob24 wrote: »

Welcome to the world of one sided views and posters who rewrite your posts so that they can say you are wrong ;-)

Again, there is no room for facetious remarks like this. If you feel someone is trolling, report them.

marienbad wrote: »

Sounds a bit like Donald Rumsfield

Please provide something more substantial than a one line quip.

Overall, I'm not sure that this thread has very much to say anymore. It seems to be going along the lines of "Brexit is the end of the world" / "No its not" / "Yes it is" type sniping.

If that is all that there is left to say about this topic (and I know it is not), I'm going to have to take steps to remedy the situation.

Bob24

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Again, there is no room for facetious remarks like this. If you feel someone is trolling, report them.

Fair enough, won't make that type of comment again. PM sent with a specific example of what I meant.

djpbarry

smjm wrote: »

There was certainly a large majority who thought it would be in the UK's economic interests to join:
http://www.economist.com/node/199382

I’m curious to know why people think the UK was “correct” not to join the Euro? It’s not like the recent financial crisis left this country completely unscathed. Ditto Iceland.

djpbarry

Rightwing wrote: »

It's hard to envisage the EU surviving to 2020, let alone beyond that.

It really isn’t. We’ve been hearing the end of the EU is nigh for years now, but it stubbornly refuses to go away, for the simple reason that most people don’t want it to.

djpbarry

twinytwo wrote: »

Many of the same groups that never saw 2008 coming as well....

It’s already been pointed out on this thread that the above is not entirely true. Most economic organisations (and some central banks) were issuing warnings about over-heated property markets long before the crisis hit. Remember Bertie’s famous quote about such people?

djpbarry

Bob24 wrote: »

Can you post some of the compelling studies detailing the impact in 2030 you are referring to so that we know what we are talking about?

I’ve already posted them numerous times on this thread.

Bob24 wrote: »

I don't think any serious economist will make 15 years economic forecasts without quoting very specific assumptions meaning they are washing their hands from any political change (which are very likely in the current situation).

But that’s what I said – projections have been made based on specific sets of assumptions, ranging from best case scenario (Norway-style deal for the UK) to the worst (not trade deal agreed). There’s obviously significant uncertainty associated with such projections, but the point is I’ve yet to see any such projection that does not involve the UK being worse off for being outside the EU.

Bob24

djpbarry wrote: »

I’ve already posted them numerous times on this thread.
But that’s what I said – projections have been made based on specific sets of assumptions, ranging from best case scenario (Norway-style deal for the UK) to the worst (not trade deal agreed). There’s obviously significant uncertainty associated with such projections, but the point is I’ve yet to see any such projection that does not involve the UK being worse off for being outside the EU.

Any way to have links for what you were specifically referring to when you said you have seen compelling cases giving clear predictions for 2030? It is difficult to have a discussion or even know if we agree if we don't know exactly what we are talking about.

The assumptions you are mentioning are still very specific and cover a very limited path of what could possibly happen because they assume that nothing else will change aside from trade deals. For exemple is there any scenarios whereby the Eurozone goes into a serious crisis because of Greece or Italy, which damages the EU as a whole and sees the UK less impacted than other European countries because it is outside of the EU? Or other EU members / EEA countries deciding to leave and form a free trade zone with the UK? Or or deadlock in the EU governances following Brexit which impacts EU economies? Or some type of unrest due to poor management of the migrant crisis which later in political instability in the EU?

While obviously not guaranteed, this type of events (and many others) are not unlikely in the next 15 years and could make the choice to leave look like a good one.

Suryavarman

djpbarry wrote: »

I’m curious to know why people think the UK was “correct” not to join the Euro? It’s not like the recent financial crisis left this country completely unscathed. Ditto Iceland.

The Bank of England handled the crisis better than the ECB. Plus the Euro itself is dysfunctional and probably shouldn't have been brought in until there was far more economic integration between member states.

micosoft

Suryavarman wrote: »

The Bank of England handled the crisis better than the ECB. Plus the Euro itself is dysfunctional and probably shouldn't have been brought in until there was far more economic integration between member states.

How is the central bank for a single country equivalent to a currency union? How precisely did the BoE handle the crisis better than the ECB?
How is the Euro Currency dysfunctional?
How do you have economic integration without a single currency?

micosoft

So it looks like those hoping for the EU to breakup have had another blow this morning. Polling indicates a surge in popularity of pro-EU parties throughout Europe. The only Union that Johnson, Farage & Gove have destroyed is the United Kingdom.

Rightwing

micosoft wrote: »

So it looks like those hoping for the EU to breakup have had another blow this morning. Polling indicates a surge in popularity of pro-EU parties throughout Europe. The only Union that Johnson, Farage & Gove have destroyed is the United Kingdom.

Then let's see if they are big enough to hold referenda.

Lockstep

Rightwing wrote: »

Then let's see if they are big enough to hold referenda.

Definitely not much point holding one in Ireland anyway. Only 9% think Ireland should leave.

stefanovich

Lockstep wrote: »

Definitely not much point holding one in Ireland anyway. Only 9% think Ireland should leave.

Outsourcing our government to Brussels doesn't sound too bad in Ireland's case seeing as we don't actually know what to do with democracy when we have it.

stefanovich

Rightwing wrote: »

Then let's see if they are big enough to hold referenda.

Yeah, I very much doubt they'd do so in France. I sincerely hope that Le Pen gets in and sorts that shambles out.

Rightwing

Lockstep wrote: »

Definitely not much point holding one in Ireland anyway. Only 9% think Ireland should leave.

Certainly no point. Juncker/Tusk would demand a new one, and Kenny/Martin would bend over and ask the unelected bureaurcrats what dates and penalties would suit.

stefanovich wrote: »

Yeah, I very much doubt they'd do so in France. I sincerely hope that Le Pen gets in and sorts that shambles out.

I'd say the Dutch will be the next to hold one.

R P McMurphy

Rightwing wrote: »

Certainly no point. Juncker/Tusk would demand a new one, and Kenny/Martin would bend over and ask the unelected bureaurcrats what dates and penalties would suit.



I'd say the Dutch will be the next to hold one.

The Dutch will do a lot of posturing but their economy is built upon trade and being a trade route. Not a hope they would jeopardise that as they love making and hording money too much.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Really feel bad for the people of Derry in all of this. They vote 80% to remain in the EU, and would presumably vote in favour of joining Ireland if given the chance. Yet there they are, outside the EU, being dictated to by Belfast and London and they want none of it.

swampgas

R P McMurphy wrote: »

The Dutch will do a lot of posturing but their economy is built upon trade and being a trade route.

And their media is less biased. An interesting comparison here:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/dutch-britain-quitting-eu-geert-wilders-netherlands

Very prescient from David McWilliams over a year ago!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuFRiHt9SUI

"The Balkanisation of the UK"

He even manages to get GoT references into it. I had to double check the date a few times.

smjm

Switzerland sending a little message to the EU!

https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/751688358972325888

Suryavarman

micosoft wrote: »

How is the central bank for a single country equivalent to a currency union?

Because they perform the exact same role and function in the economy.

How precisely did the BoE handle the crisis better than the ECB?

They were quicker to engage in QE and engaged in it far more aggressively than the ECB. The ECB also failed to act as a proper lender of last resort.

How is the Euro Currency dysfunctional?

It isn't an optimum currency area.

How do you have economic integration without a single currency?

Give the EU greater fiscal powers and responsibilities, having increased trade between nations, having greater similarity between economies, having greater labour mobility between countries among other things. Until you have proper economic integration it is extremely foolish to share a currency.

Lockstep

Rightwing wrote: »

Certainly no point. Juncker/Tusk would demand a new one, and Kenny/Martin would bend over and ask the unelected bureaurcrats what dates and penalties would suit.

Which wouldn't happen. When those who want Ireland to leave the EU aren't even in double digits, there's zero point in even having a referendum. Colossal waste of time and money.

smjm

Lockstep wrote: »

Which wouldn't happen. When those who want Ireland to leave the EU aren't even in double digits, there's zero point in even having a referendum. Colossal waste of time and money.

Quite agree. No point having a referendum yet. Plenty of time.

smjm

Looks like Switzerland could become an important ally of the UK.

https://twitter.com/ChristianJMay/status/751088412036333568

CMOTDibbler

smjm wrote: »

Switzerland sending a little message to the EU!

https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/751688358972325888

I'd say that's because they've had too many UK passport holders using the non-EU channel. Because they've left the EU y'know.

smjm

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

I've read a number of that guy's articles. He seems to ignore the UK's reliance on services and how much of UK GDP they make up. He makes a big deal about the fact that 13% of UK GDP is exports to the EU without the caveat that almost 80% of GDP is in services and that banking makes up a very high proportion of that.

So basing your argument on what may happen to 13% of GDP whilst ignoring the much larger elephant in the room is a little disingenuous.

So you're saying this fella isn't an expert? Or are you saying that he's an expert who's got it wrong this time? Or what? It seems obvious to you why he's wrong, so surely he can't be an expert, right?

Jimmy Garlic

Deleted User wrote: »

Very prescient from David McWilliams over a year ago!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuFRiHt9SUI

"The Balkanisation of the UK"

He even manages to get GoT references into it. I had to double check the date a few times.

Clever guy. Pre 2008 he was one of the only economists that was not predicting perpetual good times. He was getting down to the nitty gritty and facing reality while shady snake oil salesmen like Eddie Hobbs were hogging the limelight and telling everyone to remortgage their houses and ''now is the time to buy'' right up until the last minute before the crash.

CMOTDibbler

smjm wrote: »

So you're saying this fella isn't an expert? Or are you saying that he's an expert who's got it wrong this time? Or what? It seems obvious to you why he's wrong, so surely he can't be an expert, right?

I don't doubt his expertise. But that's why when you look for expert opinion, you look for more than one. No human being I've ever met is without some sort of prejudice or agenda. Especially those who write for newspapers. He left out something important, something that didn't suit his argument. Why is that?

Opinion is the new 'journalism'.

Bob24

Petition to re-run the vote officially rejected (the minimum turnout and score mentioned by the petitioners to validate the result had no legal basis): http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/petition-for-second-brexit-vote-rejected-by-british-government-1.2716817

smjm

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

I don't doubt his expertise. But that's why when you look for expert opinion, you look for more than one. No human being I've ever met is without some sort of prejudice or agenda. Especially those who write for newspapers. He left out something important, something that didn't suit his argument. Why is that?

Opinion is the new 'journalism'.

Thank goodness those of us on Boards only deal in absolute facts, unswayed by prejudice and ignoring all agenda-based opinion.