Brexit Referendum Superthread

Well realistically the status quo already exists, so a QMV could only be used to change away from the status quo. The 'null hypothesis' of the referendum is 'no change', the 'alternate hypothesis' is 'change'.

Technically though, the status quo in the UK now is to Leave. So the QMV would necessarily have to be achieved by the 'Remain 2.0' side for it to be reasonable imo.

molloyjh

Lemming wrote: »

Then you haven't really thought through the implications of simple majority on a referendum of this nature. We're talking about shaping the shape or direction of a country, not sticking some useless windbag's @rse in a seat for four or five years on an outrageous salary whilst they party with coke & hookers. Simple majority referenda effectively force change on an entire population regardless of how many of them disagree with that change. In both of the above cases, the changes are both drastic and profound, unlike something like gay marriage which really only affects a tiny percentage of the population in any practical and meaningful manner.

Simple majority is fine for referenda. The problem is that the man on the street should not be asked to form policy related to hugely complex international treaties and the economics that go hand in hand with that. The vast majority of us (and I count myself in that mix) simply don't have the knowledge or expertise to make educated and informed decisions on the matter.

Simple majority is fine, but this should never have been put to the people in the first place.

Todd Toddington III

stefanovich wrote: »

What precedent?



Exactly. The pro eu types are screaming for this 2/3 on the assumption that the default is remain.

How about we are out unless 2/3 say we should remain? How about we throw in the child voters for them? Still not sounding great? I suggest you quit the collective tantrum. Father knows best.

Who's screaming? Child voters? You do make some ridiculous arguments

Nate--IRL--

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

Posted in the AH thread, but it might find a better audience here.

UK Parliamentary committee getting to grips with what is required and what is possible with leaving the EU.

http://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/cb083c53-3998-4f3a-8eca-e114e3dbdf0b

Nate

Very interesting video, both from the type and tone of questions that are being asked, and of course the answers that they are earning.

Michael Dougan had two great pieces on youtube before (and after) the referendum that lead into it very well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USTypBKEd8Y

One of the UK’s leading EU law experts criticizes the referendum debate’s 'dishonesty on an industrial scale', as he considers the claims and counter claims from each side.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dosmKwrAbI

Professor Michael Dougan, the leading EU lawyer whose criticism of the referendum campaign’s “industrial dishonesty” went viral, has assessed the UK’s position following the vote to leave the EU.

Bob24

stefanovich wrote: »

Exactly. The pro eu types are screaming for this 2/3 on the assumption that the default is remain.

To be fair I don't think it is everyone - only very one sided people which are very vocal on social media and too used to their opinion being the majority one. I think most politicians and reasonable political journalists in the UK have accepted a majority is a majority and when you ask the people for their opinion you have to accept the answer of the majority.

K-9

Todd Toddington III wrote: »

Who's screaming? Child voters? You do make some ridiculous arguments

Mod:
Indeed, the thread is mostly civil. It's best to report any posts like that and we'll take a look, otherwise there's a good chance the thread turns into a personal tit for tat slagging match!

@stefanovich, don't accuse others of throwing tantrums, argue the point please. I don't agree with the point myself but people are entitled to their opinions as long as it is civil and constructive.

mansize

https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/752452786835562496


Leadsom to quit leadership race

smjm

mansize wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/752452786835562496


Leadsom to quit leadership race

Probably a wise decision. Enormous pressure on her.

Thomas_..

smjm wrote: »

Probably a wise decision. Enormous pressure on her.

Neither of them really is a stunner, the one remaining is just the more experienced in politics and (governmental) administration. That´s rather hard to beat and silly comments, even when regretted afterwards, are no good.

smjm

smjm wrote: »

Probably a wise decision. Enormous pressure on her.

Surely would pale in comparison to having the premiership of a country?

NIMAN

Will May really activate Article 50 to leave the EU, considering she is a Remainer?

Could this be the UKs route to staying?

molloyjh

mansize wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/752452786835562496


Leadsom to quit leadership race

I read that and I thought 2 things. The first is that it's awful that she's dropping out due to getting abuse. That so many people can feel they have the right to treat another human being that way is terrible.

However the second thing is that if her skin is that thin then maybe the PM job isn't really for her. That's not really a bad thing, but you've got to be tough to take that job and better to find out now than later that she isn't. For her and everyone else.

NIMAN

NIMAN wrote: »

Will May really activate Article 50 to leave the EU, considering she is a Remainer?

Could this be the UKs route to staying?

Yes.

No.

May is taking the UK out of the EU. Her role is making that as painless as possible, without doing too much damage to the economy. She has explicitly mentioned issues with Freedom of Movement of Labour, and so the EEA ideal seems to be far from her mind.

Thomas_..

NIMAN wrote: »

Will May really activate Article 50 to leave the EU, considering she is a Remainer?

Could this be the UKs route to staying?

I have no doubts that she will because otherwise, she´d lose face, office and party leadership. She´s not the type to let that happen.

Besides, when Tory politicians talk about taking care of the working people, one can´t expect that they really mean to have the best intentions for them to make life better. It´s just hot air, but in regards of the Brexit, that woman means business and will (have to) lead the UK out of the EU.

smjm

Deleted User wrote: »

Surely would pale in comparison to having the premiership of a country?

Indeed it would. Kind of my point: if she can't take it now, she has no chance as PM.

mansize

Leadsom was exposed as naive and exposed as too inexperienced to be PM

mansize

Theresa May, the Hlome secretary, says "Brexit means Brexit and we’re going to make a success of it" as she kicks off the launch of her campaign in Birmingham.

oppenheimer1

smjm wrote: »

Probably a wise decision. Enormous pressure on her.

I don't know. The whole leadership race was a play for time by the UK government. With Leadsome out, May is the effective PM and there will be huge pressure to trigger art 50 immediately.

What they wanted was Leadsome to stay in the race to the end but lose badly.

Yet another **** up over there. They really do know how to bring problems on themselves.

Bob24

NIMAN wrote: »

Will May really activate Article 50 to leave the EU, considering she is a Remainer?

Could this be the UKs route to staying?

She just made her opinion on this very clear: http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/0711/801573-uk-brexit/

Speaking at the launch of her national campaign to become the new Tory leader, Ms May said: "Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it. "

"There will be no attempts to remain inside the EU, there will be no attempts to rejoin it by the back door."

"As prime minister, I will make sure we leave the European Union," she said.

mansize

So Theresa May is the in coming PM, she will be a lot more hard nosed than Cameron.

Bob24

Also, the Guardian seems to that that if Andrea Leadsom was to pull out, Theresa May could become prime minister almost instantly. So there could be more developments than expected during the summer and possibly an earlier than expected activation of article 50 (though I think a good strategy for May would be to take her time, even if she was to become prime minister now).

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/jul/11/andrea-leadsom-apologises-to-theresa-may-politics-live

If Andrea Leadsom does pull out, three things could happen.

1 - Theresa May could become prime minister very soon, perhaps even later today.

2 - May could be confirmed as party leader, but with David Cameron staying on for perhaps a few more weeks.

3 - The Conservative party board could decide to allow another candidate to enter. It would almost certainly be Michael Gove, who came third. The board could take the view that members are entitled to a choice between a leave candidate and a remain candidate.

They really can't trigger Article 50 until they know what kind of relationship they want with the EU.

mansize

If Article 50 was triggered by Xmas I'd be surprised

Bob24

Deleted User wrote: »

They really can't trigger Article 50 until they know what kind of relationship they want with the EU.

Agreed, but if May has a clear idea of what she wants to do and the rest of the party accepts it, they have an idea of the relashionship they want pretty quickly (I suspect many politicians will prefer to follow her lead rather than having anything to do with Brexit and the agree strategy, so that they can say the strategy was not their idea id things go wrong).

Basq

Bob24 wrote: »

Also, the Guardian seems to that that if Andrea Leadsom was to pull out, Theresa May could become prime minister almost instantly.

And there we go..

LiamoSail

mansize wrote: »

Leadsom was exposed as naive and exposed as too inexperienced to be PM

Exposed as a blatant liar too. Between her inexperience, nativity, dishonesty and God telling her what to do, she'd have been an absolute disaster for the UK.

Lemming

Politician in "they'll promise to do something" shocker .... It remains to be seen what happens regards Article 50 and whether or not May will seek to serve notice. The longer this drags out, the less likely notice will be served as the scale of what approaches, and the cost, becomes clear to more and more people.

On a side-note: interesting to see that all of the 'champions' of leave lies have jumped ship having steered the country onto a course with rocks.

Thomas_..

LiamoSail wrote: »

Exposed as a blatant liar too. Between her inexperience, nativity, dishonesty and God telling her what to do, she'd have been an absolute disaster for the UK.

The Brexit will turn out as the biggest disaster the Brits ever inflicted on themselves, no matter who´ll be PM. Neither of them Brexiteer apparently ever gave a Minute of thinking about their expats living abroad and the consequences they´ll have to face. But well, they can also return home, if it goes the way of the Brexiteers and Mrs May in particular who always had a tough stance on Immigration, especially from EU countries, but not just them.

Considering where around the Med the British expats are living, which numbers are not too small (like Portugal, Spain, Greece, Malta - the beloved retirement destination of many British pensioners), they will damn their government for kicking the UK out of the EU.

Gibraltar might even face an "overtake" by Spain in the worst case Scenario, once the UK is finally out of the EU. But either way, the British in Gibraltar might get cut off from the EU afterwards. But maybe it won´t get that severe in the end of the day.

Thomas_..

Basq wrote: »

And there we go..

Looks like Cameron is having an earlier end of his premiership than he really expected.

Lemming

Thomas_.. wrote: »

The Brexit will turn out as the biggest disaster the Brits ever inflicted on themselves, no matter who´ll be PM. Neither of them Brexiteer apparently ever gave a Minute of thinking about their expats living abroad and the consequences they´ll have to face. But well, they can also return home,

Watching that parliament.tv video linked a few pages back yesterday, this was raised as an issue. And one of the expert-panel raised the matter that for a lot of these ex-pats, they would be unable to afford to move home and ergo possibly become stuck in limbo without additional repatriation costs. Brexit not only covers their rights to reside in those countries without reciprocal agreement but also affects pension payments and access to healthcare and other social services.

The unanimous opinion was that any decision made by the UK regards EU nationals in its borders would be met in reciprocal fashion.