Brexit Referendum Superthread

djpbarry

smjm wrote: »

China and others might like to weaken the EU, politically and economically.

How is that in anyone’s interest? The EU is an important market for China – weakening it and reducing its spending power makes no sense.

Enzokk

There seems to be a perception among those that favoured leaving the EU that in the upcoming negotiations that the UK holds all the cards and they don't need the EU at all. In fact they are doing a favour to the EU for thinking about negotiations with them.

The truth is there needs to be a deal with the UK and the EU, this is the priority for the UK as they need to figure out what their relationship with the EU is before they can organise other trade deals with other countries. This is true for the EU as well and why they are probably a little impatient to get going.

If as an example they cannot agree a trade deal with the EU as they are hung up on freedom of movement, this would change possible deals with other commonwealth nations as they would still be short of doctors and nurses and this will impact their immigration needs in the future. It may open less travel restrictions for countries like Australia or New Zealand (seeing as most emigration actually went to these nations I don't see how they would be able to entice people to come back) or other nations outside of the EU that they would deem acceptable.

Bob24

Bob24 wrote: »

The pound is up 1% versus the euro today (and 1.30% vs the US dollar). It has regained 2 cents since it lowest point last week.

The pound has climbed back to 1.20 euro today - back to where it was 2 weeks ago. The fall seems to have stopped for now.

Nody

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, I think the rule is they can't make the deal. I don't think there can be any rule against talking about making a deal. Agree deals to come into force when they leave, and no rules are broken.

You'd be wrong; part of the EU laws is that only EU can negotiate trade deals on behalf of the countries and individual countries can not negotiate deals or sign them.

Secondly on the whole "we negotiate a deal but don't sign it" every single country will hold the trumps because the moment UK looks to invoke the trade deal they can simply turn around and demand more from it or refuse to sign it. After all they already have the deal with EU so waiting a bit more for UK is not going to hurt a whole lot...

smjm

'Brexit a chance for closer EU military ties, says Germany'

http://www.thelocal.de/20160713/brexit-a-chance-for-closer-eu-defence-ties

Bob24

smjm wrote: »

'Brexit a chance for closer EU military ties, says Germany'

http://www.thelocal.de/20160713/brexit-a-chance-for-closer-eu-defence-ties

It's a bit funny of Germany to say that the UK has been blocking EU defence, knowing that the UK and France are the only two world class military players on the continent, with a capacity project significant military power away from Europe (not only Germany's equipment is not as advanced and in smaller quantities, but a lot of it is not even in working condition).

When Merkel goes to see Hollande and asks for more military cooperation, he will for once be the one with a strong hand and say: "yes, either if you bring your army up to the standard so that it can be an equal partner, or if you chip in to pay for ours if it is going to be Europe's leading one".

Sand

I still cant believe BoJo is 'Her Majesty's Principal Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs'. The Duke of Wellington, Eden and Bamm-Bamm Rubble. I thought he had escaped from the treachery he visited upon the UK, but May has cunningly chained him to it. The whole thing does highlight the failure of the UK political scene - the Labour Party in total chaos, the Tories appointing fools to high office. Apparently the EU was to blame for every inefficiency and incompetency in the UK, but the problem seems a lot closer to home.

As for Germany - it needs to get serious about funding its own defence before it starts looking for others to defend it. The post WW2 occupation of Germany has morphed over the decades into a free German defence force. The conquered exacted a subsidy from their conquerors which has probably far exceeded any reparations paid since. They have excellent equipment - they simply don't purchase it for their own military.

Sam Russell

Where are the Tornados that Germany has built? And why do they have reliability problems?

BoJack Horseman

Sam Russell wrote: »

Where are the Tornados that Germany has built? And why do they have reliability problems?

They don't have problems.... they just lack for maintenance.

Why?
Same reason for every military in the world..... money, or lack of it.

(and the modern Luftwaffe's Tornado fleet is a bit of an oddity.... about 1/3 of the fleet are permanently based in the USA. Quite literally due to lack of airspace in Germany to train in.)

Bob24

Sam Russell wrote: »

Where are the Tornados that Germany has built? And why do they have reliability problems?

Under-funding leading to a lack of parts to maintain them as they should. This (with roads and other infrastructure left in poor condition) is one of the ugly sides of Germany's zero-deficit budget.

Germany is only spending 1.18% of GDP in its military, well below NATO's guidelines of 2%: http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/15/news/nato-spending-countries/index.html

With the U.K. leaving, the EU is actually losing its only large country which is within the guideline (though France is not too far behind). It will reduce its credibidility if it wants to present itself to NATO or to the US as an integrated player, which is why I find German comments a bit over the top on this point.

Nody

And now Wales got told the truth about promises during election campaigns; they mean sod all. In short Wales will not receive the same funding after Brexit as they do now with EU funding but will get "their fare share" instead rather than as all the local politicians promised that they would get increased amount of funding after Brexit due to not having to pay EU. Yet another classic case of people who don't know how numbers and grants work before or after Brexit.

So to date has anyone in the Brexit campaign actually been able to show a positive effect of leaving? I'm not talking about the "Oh in a decade with a gazillion trade deals we'll all be millionaires because of all this new trade coming out of the wood works" but actual hard numbers to back up the claims? I.e. how much they expect the trade to increase, what sectors etc. backed up by something more than blustering?

BoJack Horseman

Nody wrote: »

has anyone in the Brexit campaign actually been able to show a positive effect of leaving?

They haven't left yet.
So, no.

But put a pin in this and return in 2.5 years

Enzokk

Nody wrote: »

And now Wales got told the truth about promises during election campaigns; they mean sod all. In short Wales will not receive the same funding after Brexit as they do now with EU funding but will get "their fare share" instead rather than as all the local politicians promised that they would get increased amount of funding after Brexit due to not having to pay EU. Yet another classic case of people who don't know how numbers and grants work before or after Brexit.

So to date has anyone in the Brexit campaign actually been able to show a positive effect of leaving? I'm not talking about the "Oh in a decade with a gazillion trade deals we'll all be millionaires because of all this new trade coming out of the wood works" but actual hard numbers to back up the claims? I.e. how much they expect the trade to increase, what sectors etc. backed up by something more than blustering?

Now some of the poorest and areas in most need of funding have to rely on the Conservative Party to reach out and help them to maintain funding that they needed to catch up to the rest of the UK. What has history taught the UK people will happen? David Cameron also talked about "everyone being in it together" and his cuts were most severe on the poor and struggling and he gave tax cuts to the rich. I will be surprised if this changes, seeing as already the quotes are that people will receive their "fair share" only.

Nody

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

They haven't left yet.
So, no.

You can estimate based on what you expect your policy to do however; for example if signing a trade deal there's an estimate to the value from the additional trade etc. These are all things that is standard today so why would it be impossible for them to do a similar estimate? What's the budget going to look like? How's the expense/income side expected to look like? What goods / manufacturing do they expect to grow/shrink? Those are all fairly normal things to be able to outline on a general policy level at this stage...

Also I read that the appointment of Boris was to set up a fall guy for Brexit negotiations failing and ensuring his career is over. Seeing some of his quotes I can only think in the same patterns.

mickoneill31

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

They haven't left yet.
So, no.

But put a pin in this and return in 2.5 years

They haven't left yet but we're able to see plenty of negative effects. That needed about 2.5 minutes. And the longer it goes on they seem to be only getting worse.

freddyuk

The problem for Ireland is the impending failure of the EU banking system. When the Irish bubble burst the people were forced to pick up the bill (and still are) but the Italians problem is too big for the people to solve and it will require IMF intervention confirming once and for all the complete failure of the EU project. Deutche Bank will also collapse. The only reason to unfairly support these banks is to prevent the inevitable domino effect of unprofitable banks which have been operating within the EU since 2008. UK banks were sorted out by the Tories and are strong enough to avoid problems of Brexit providing we are not expected to bail out what is left of the EU.
It will be well within 2 years before the financial system falls apart.
The UK has a head start to make it's way in the world without the shackles of Brussels. Once the fiscal screws tighten around the EU do you think the existing French, German and Italian governments will remain in power after the elections? Sadly it will be a lurch to the Right.

BoJack Horseman

Nody wrote: »

You can estimate based on what you expect your policy to do however

You can 'estimate' all you want, but you cannot say for sure.

Afterall, if you know.... then explain for us why Ireland failed to qualify for the 2022 world cup finals??

Dave & the Bank of England said that the British people would be a lot poorer....
Dave also said WW3 would be nigh.

Neither are certain.
Dave can't tell the future any better than you or I.

It's knowing that the future is unknown that motivated people on either side.
Either, remain in Project Junker for fear of the unknown, or leave it because of fear of the unknown.

molloyjh

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

You can 'estimate' all you want, but you cannot say for sure.

Afterall, if you know.... then explain for us why Ireland failed to qualify for the 2022 world cup finals??

Dave & the Bank of England said that the British people would be a lot poorer....
Dave also said WW3 would be nigh.

Neither are certain.
Dave can't tell the future any better than you or I.

It's knowing that the future is unknown that motivated people on either side.
Either, remain in Project Junker for fear of the unknown, or leave it because of fear of the unknown.

Just because you don't know what is going to happen tomorrow doesn't mean that you don't plan for it. And if you're going to plan for it you need to do so based on what the most likely outcomes are going to be. You will never be 100% certain what those are but there's generally outcomes that are more likely than others. And that's all experts can give you. The most likely outcomes given the information to hand at that point in time. They may not be able to see into the future, but they can generally get it more right than the man on the street. So who should you listen to and how should you plan?

BoJack Horseman

molloyjh wrote: »

Just because you don't know what is going to happen tomorrow doesn't mean that you don't plan for it

Lol.... and who was it that banned Whitehall from commencing any contingency plans??

The answer is the shiny chinned fellow who is no longer PM!

The experts were doom mongering very hard, time will tell if they were right.
But then when are they ever?

LiamoSail

Enzokk wrote: »

Now some of the poorest and areas in most need of funding have to rely on the Conservative Party to reach out and help them to maintain funding that they needed to catch up to the rest of the UK. .

Serves them right. The Welsh are going to feel the effects of Brexit quiet sharply when the EU money disappears, and it'll hurt because it won't be matched. The beauty of it is that they brought it on themselves, they're turkeys that voted for Xmas. When EU funding, foreign investment and jobs all disappear, Wales will be significant worse off.

The reduced number of foreigners, while it will go some way to appeasing the xenophobic hordes, is unlikely to paper over the cracks

BoatMad

BorisTheSpider wrote: »

Mad indeed ! Death wish to leave the EU ? Lol ! the very same EU that takes 5 years to decide anything, that destroyed the Greek Economy and will have our children paying for the damage it did to the Irish Economy. Put your money where your mouth is and buy a few Italian Bank Shares !

Watch and wait , you'll see the UK is not a strong economy and has a volatile currency

molloyjh

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Lol.... and who was it that banned Whitehall from commencing any contingency plans??

The answer is the shiny chinned fellow who is no longer PM!

The experts were doom mongering very hard, time will tell if they were right.
But then when are they ever?

More often than not actually. They predicted that the UK economy would take a hit if Leave won. It did. And it hasn't recovered yet despite some peoples insistence that the FTSE 100 is somehow an indication of the British economy.

BoatMad

freddyuk wrote: »

The problem for Ireland is the impending failure of the EU banking system. When the Irish bubble burst the people were forced to pick up the bill (and still are) but the Italians problem is too big for the people to solve and it will require IMF intervention confirming once and for all the complete failure of the EU project. Deutche Bank will also collapse. The only reason to unfairly support these banks is to prevent the inevitable domino effect of unprofitable banks which have been operating within the EU since 2008. UK banks were sorted out by the Tories and are strong enough to avoid problems of Brexit providing we are not expected to bail out what is left of the EU.
It will be well within 2 years before the financial system falls apart.
The UK has a head start to make it's way in the world without the shackles of Brussels. Once the fiscal screws tighten around the EU do you think the existing French, German and Italian governments will remain in power after the elections? Sadly it will be a lurch to the Right.

You have obviously no clear understanding of both the Irish banking crisis or the primary attributes of a fiat currency. ( or the basis of the Greek crisis )

Sterling is a weak has been currency whose financial centre has largely survived being tied to EU monetary activity. This will most likely end.

I've no problem with uk leaving the EU. But don't in any way fool yourself ( you ) are leaving a sinking ship in some clever prescient move. That's just little englander speak

As the UK sunders apart with Scotland, NI issues etc and becomes an economic backwater , you'll realise all you collectively did was jump of a ship without a life jacket.

It's amazing to listen to idiots that would project the failure of the EU ( and potential misery to millions ) just to justify The monumentally stupid decision that was Brexit

Ps : U.K. Banks or taxpayers have never bailed any Euro country thanks but no thanks

" fog in channel , continent cut off" says the little englander

BoatMad

Enzokk wrote: »

Now some of the poorest and areas in most need of funding have to rely on the Conservative Party to reach out and help them to maintain funding that they needed to catch up to the rest of the UK. What has history taught the UK people will happen? David Cameron also talked about "everyone being in it together" and his cuts were most severe on the poor and struggling and he gave tax cuts to the rich. I will be surprised if this changes, seeing as already the quotes are that people will receive their "fair share" only.

Rather like Trunp will actually look after the millions of disaffected poor whites. It amazes me that this disaffected group in the uk will beleive that the Tories will look after them " not the shackles of Brussels will be gone ) absolute electoral idiocy, they are primarily disaffected BECAUSE of previous Tory policy.

Lockstep

Bob24 wrote: »

Under-funding leading to a lack of parts to maintain them as they should. This (with roads and other infrastructure left in poor condition) is one of the ugly sides of Germany's zero-deficit budget.

Germany is only spending 1.18% of GDP in its military, well below NATO's guidelines of 2%: http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/15/news/nato-spending-countries/index.html

With the U.K. leaving, the EU is actually losing its only large country which is within the guideline (though France is not too far behind). It will reduce its credibidility if it wants to present itself to NATO or to the US as an integrated player, which is why I find German comments a bit over the top on this point.

Germany's military spending is still among the highest in the world (its budget saw a significant increase in 2015 following reports of underfunding and given the size of its economy, it's military spending is significant.
As such, it remains one of the world's strongest militaries (and even in 2014 when its underfunding was especially chronic, it was the 7th strongest in the world

Germany is militarily weaker than the UK or France but still a significant military power in its own right. As is Italy.

BoJack Horseman

molloyjh wrote: »

They predicted that the UK economy would take a hit if Leave won. It did. And it hasn't recovered yet

In what way?
Unemployment?
GDP/GNP?

BoJack Horseman

smjm wrote: »

'Brexit a chance for closer EU military ties, says Germany'

http://www.thelocal.de/20160713/brexit-a-chance-for-closer-eu-defence-ties

Lockstep wrote: »

Germany is militarily weaker than the UK or France but still a significant military power in its own right. As is Italy.

What with Germany being so stronk, the German defence minister must be mistaken, there is surely no need for a common defence policy?

What is German defence policy anyway? Isn't it just to call the White House asap?

Bob24

Lockstep wrote: »

Germany's military spending is still among the highest in the world (its budget saw a significant increase in 2015 following reports of underfunding and given the size of its economy, it's military spending is significant.
As such, it remains one of the world's strongest militaries (and even in 2014 when its underfunding was especially chronic, it was the 7th strongest in the world

Germany is militarily weaker than the UK or France but still a significant military power in its own right. As is Italy.

Sure Germany is not Ireland and has decent military capacity. The part in bold is very doubtful though. Given the population and its GDP per capita, spendings are quite low (you cannot only look at gross military spendings as the cost of paying soldiers and maintaining equipment will vary depending on local wages). Again, 1.18% is well below NATO targets and even if they were to increase it significantly, it would take years to recover the operational capabilities they have lost over time (and as you can see in my link France and the UK are spending much more).

France and (maybe to a lesser extend) the UK have no problem running a large scale operation in a remote area on their own, and especially France has demonstrated it on multiple occasions in the past few years. It is doubtful Germany can do it.

Edit: end depending on the methodology Germany can be ranked quite lower than the list you quoted while France is always amongst the top players.

BoJack Horseman

Bob24 wrote: »

It is doubtful Germany can do it.

No, they can't.... They lack expeditionary capability.

But then it's posture is one of defence & only then in it's immediate vicinity.

Which was ok as they have Uncle Sam and a more powerful Polish army next door.... but if they really want the 'JunkerArmee' that may have to change.

Nominally, a pan-continental defence policy would have to be more comprehensive than what Germany wan'ts in isolation.

BoatMad

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

In what way?
Unemployment?
GDP/GNP?

They haven't left yet not is their future access to the single market and passporting rights any near resolution