Brexit Referendum Superthread

Bob24

Will have a watch after work. Am I alone thinking that having either and EU or a UK flag in front of people debating depending on whether they are "remain" or "leave" is actually quite political? ;-) (as in: you can either support he EU or support the UK)

Sam Russell

I think the use of flags is actually pejorative.

A bit like Sinn Fein wrapping the tricolour round them as a party emblem. That is my (and every other citizen's of this country) tricolour not theirs.

It sends the message that the Leave-ists are supporters of the UK but the remainders are traitors selling out to the EU.

ancapailldorcha

The Spectator is a very conservative, right-wing publication though. It's not out of character for them.

Charles Babbage

Another concerning poll, 55% leave.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-leave-campaign-10-point-lead-remain-boris-johnson-nigel-farage-david-a7075131.html

although this does not include the 6 counties.

It would be rather interesting if the dreary steeples kept England in the 21st century.

chasm

K-9 wrote: »

Central Bank research

That's the report. It's odd something like this has never come up before, so could be an outlier.

But if you agree with the other causes I outlined it seems odd to dismiss immigration, it's part of Globalisation really.

That paper is an updated version of a paper previously published in 2008.
The 2008 version stated that "In the latter case, the coefficient indicates that a 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of immigrants working in semi/unskilled services—that is, in care homes, bars, shops, restaurants, cleaning, for example—lead to a 5.2 percent reduction in pay", these figures have been revised in the recent paper.

An article on the NIESR website discusses the 2008 paper and 2015 updated version and they state "In other words, not only was the result not new, but the main actual “news” in this latest version of the paper is that the estimated impact is considerably smaller than their original estimate. This is, according to the authors, the result of improved methodology and several more years of data. In other words, better, more accurate estimates using more recent data have reduced their estimate of the impact of immigration on wages in the UK.
http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-small-small-impact-immigration-uk-wages#.V1s03qLm3IU

Rjd2

I think and hope they vote to stay, although the one thing that is depressing to read, plenty of liberal people who would be left wing, copping a lot of flack online...e.g "little englander" and "UKIP supporter" etc for saying they will vote to leave.


Dennis Skinner who is not exactly UKIP today came out saying he was voting to leave, plenty of Tories with immigrant backgrounds all want to leave.

Obviously they are some who have opinions which deserve to be heard by nobody who are probably going to vote to leave, but its naive, nasty and dangerous to suggest those who want to leave are some sort of right wing narrow minded idiots.

oppenheimer1

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Another concerning poll, 55% leave.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-leave-campaign-10-point-lead-remain-boris-johnson-nigel-farage-david-a7075131.html

although this does not include the 6 counties.

It would be rather interesting if the dreary steeples kept England in the 21st century.

It was an online poll also which needs to be taken into account.

I think the only thing that can save this for Remain is a run on the pound tbh.

Lemming

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

I think the only thing that can save this for Remain is a run on the pound tbh.

Been happening for months; my pound, plus bank charge, gives me just over one euro now. The currency has taken a slapping and it's only going to get worse if the nation votes to leave.

Charles Babbage

Lemming wrote: »

Been happening for months; my pound, plus bank charge, gives me just over one euro now. The currency has taken a slapping and it's only going to get worse if the nation votes to leave.

You need to exchange it somewhere else, it is €1.26 on the markets.

Good diagram on Slugger, illustrating the "scale" of the issue.

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

I think and hope they vote to stay, although the one thing that is depressing to read, plenty of liberal people who would be left wing, copping a lot of flack online...e.g "little englander" and "UKIP supporter" etc for saying they will vote to leave.


Dennis Skinner who is not exactly UKIP today came out saying he was voting to leave, plenty of Tories with immigrant backgrounds all want to leave.

Obviously they are some who have opinions which deserve to be heard by nobody who are probably going to vote to leave, but its naive, nasty and dangerous to suggest those who want to leave are some sort of right wing narrow minded idiots.

Absolutely. When the split is roughly 50/50, people (on either side) need to accept that it can't be as simple as "the ones who hold the truth (my group) v.s. the stupid ones (the other group)". There must be different interest groups in the population which are conflicting.

In my opinion the liberal left will especially pay dearly in future elections for their tendency to dismiss leavers as xenophobic, short-minded, ignorant or whatever else (and while I certainly don't support his view of the world, a guy like Corbyn is probably - for once - doing the British left a service by holding back). And then they will lament about the rise of "populists" as if it was some kind of natural disaster: very bad but for which no one has any responsibility for.

Mr.Nice Guy

Rjd2 wrote: »

I think and hope they vote to stay, although the one thing that is depressing to read, plenty of liberal people who would be left wing, copping a lot of flack online...e.g "little englander" and "UKIP supporter" etc for saying they will vote to leave.


Dennis Skinner who is not exactly UKIP today came out saying he was voting to leave, plenty of Tories with immigrant backgrounds all want to leave.

Obviously they are some who have opinions which deserve to be heard by nobody who are probably going to vote to leave, but its naive, nasty and dangerous to suggest those who want to leave are some sort of right wing narrow minded idiots.

Quite right. I was watching a BBC NI debate on Thursday with Eamonn McCann of People Before Profit arguing for Brexit alongside Gregory Campbell of the DUP. It's not a black-and-white issue and personally I can see pros and cons on both sides. (As well as a lot of scaremongering from both sides too)

A Dub in Glasgo

The English fans currently in France are ensuring that the rest of Europe doesn't give a feck about England (sic) leaving

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

Obviously they are some who have opinions which deserve to be heard by nobody who are probably going to vote to leave, but its naive, nasty and dangerous to suggest those who want to leave are some sort of right wing narrow minded idiots.

Just came across this article which in my opinion is an illustration of the way you described leave campaigner are mishandling the situation: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/10/working-class-britain-brexity-betrayed-labour-vote-leave

I find a statement like this one not only disrespectful towards part of the population but also counter-productive: "Too many working-class northern Labour voters are being seduced by Vote Leave’s disingenuous campaigning. The party has two weeks to reach them".

Translated in more crude English: the idiot working-class is not smart enough to realise our political opponents are manipulating them. The party needs to educate them.

Fairly pretentious in my opinion, and most importantly pretty poor political strategy: telling people they have been stupid all along and don't understand what is really at stake likely won't get them to change their mind.

whatever_

Bob24 wrote: »

Just came across this article which in my opinion is an illustration of the way you described leave campaigner are mishandling the situation: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/10/working-class-britain-brexity-betrayed-labour-vote-leave

I find a statement like this one not only disrespectful towards part of the population but also counter-productive: "Too many working-class northern Labour voters are being seduced by Vote Leave’s disingenuous campaigning. The party has two weeks to reach them".

Translated in more crude English: the idiot working-class is not smart enough to realise our political opponents are manipulating them. The party needs to educate them.

Fairly pretentious in my opinion, and most importantly pretty poor political strategy: telling people they have been stupid all along and don't understand what is really at stake likely won't get them to change their mind.

I think and hope they vote to stay, although the one thing that is depressing to read, plenty of liberal people who would be left wing, copping a lot of flack online...e.g "little englander" and "UKIP supporter" etc for saying they will vote to leave.



Dennis Skinner who is not exactly UKIP today came out saying he was voting to leave, plenty of Tories with immigrant backgrounds all want to leave.

Obviously they are some who have opinions which deserve to be heard by nobody who are probably going to vote to leave, but its naive, nasty and dangerous to suggest those who want to leave are some sort of right wing narrow minded idiots.

Yes, I agree with everything both of you have said (except the Stay bit !).

The flak is generally coming from people with a fairly unsophisticated understanding of British politics and the reason I joined in this discussion was to articulate some of the views of ordinary people. I have often voted Labour in UK elections and whilst I am not impressed with the current leadership, the views of Dennis Skinner and Jeremy Corbyn will always resonate with me.

Immigration is a complex issue in Britain. Most of us have been living with the pros and cons of this for decades and people who link "anti-immigration" with "racism" only show their own lack of understanding of the issue. For many ordinary people it is about access to services (housing, schools, hospitals, public transport etc).

Likewise, there is an assumption in some quarters that because so many of the economists tell us so, "Remaining" must be better for the economy. Economists are good at predicting the effect of incremental change (e.g. what will happen if we raise public spending by 1% or lower interest rates by 0.5%). However economists have failed us time and time again when it comes to predicting the effects of large change ( tracking the ERM, not joining the Euro, the credit crunch). Ordinary people understand the difference.

oppenheimer1

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

It was an online poll also which needs to be taken into account.

I think the only thing that can save this for Remain is a run on the pound tbh.

How accurate are these polls though, especially after they got the 2015 GE result wrong? Bookmakers are offering a 70% chance on remain. Seems good odds to me.

Bob24

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

I think the only thing that can save this for Remain is a run on the pound tbh.

The selfish side of me has the credit card ready to purchase a few expensive things I have been thinking of in case the pound drops abruptly and it takes some time for prices to be adjusted :-)

oppenheimer1

Bob24 wrote: »

The selfish side of me has the credit card ready to purchase a few expensive things I have been thinking of in case the pound drops abruptly and it takes some time for prices to be adjusted :-)

The same as myself The pound could lose as much as 20% in the next two weeks

BlitzKrieg

I find the hatred in the UK to specifically Juncker to be fascinating

especially it was the refusal of the tory and UKIP meps just freshly elected to vote that put him in power. His party only had a 20 seat majority and 46 UK seats did not vote in the presidential election.

its not undemocratic when you refuse to take part.

Sam Russell

I found it hard to believe that the Scots bottled it in their referendum. We shall see who bottles it this time.

Lemming

Sam Russell wrote: »

I found it hard to believe that the Scots bottled it in their referendum. We shall see who bottles it this time.

I believe that they made the right call on that referendum; but if the UK were to leave the EU, that changes the goalposts significantly on the question of whether or not it would be in Scotland's best interests to remain with the UK, or exit and apply to join the EU.

eire4

Lemming wrote: »

I believe that they made the right call on that referendum; but if the UK were to leave the EU, that changes the goalposts significantly on the question of whether or not it would be in Scotland's best interests to remain with the UK, or exit and apply to join the EU.

Well the SNP have been pretty consistent in saying they will move for another independence referendum if Britain (mostly England) votes to leave the EU and given the majority of Scotland will likely be voting to stay in the EU there is a very good chance that any such referendum would lead to Scotland leaving the UK.

walshyn93

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

I find the hatred in the UK to specifically Juncker to be fascinating

especially it was the refusal of the tory and UKIP meps just freshly elected to vote that put him in power. His party only had a 20 seat majority and 46 UK seats did not vote in the presidential election.

its not undemocratic when you refuse to take part.

The hatred towards Juncker is totally justified. I'd say if I googled his name right now he's being quoted as saying something so arrogant and inflammatory it would get him lynched in a less civilised world.

Bob24

walshyn93 wrote: »

The hatred towards Juncker is totally justified. I'd say if I googled his name right now he's being quoted as saying something so arrogant and inflammatory it would get him lynched in a less civilised world.

Don't know if I would call it hatered ... but yeah there are many reason to have something against him and it is not just in the UK.

One quote I will never forget: "there can be no democratic choice against the European treaties". To an extend he was telling the truth, but in terms of political strategy it probably wasn't the best thing to say :-)

Lemming

Bob24 wrote: »

One quote I will never forget: "there can be no democratic choice against the European treaties". To an extend he was telling the truth, but in terms of political strategy it probably wasn't the best thing to say :-)

Oh joy; that selective click-bait comment again, which has been beaten to death on this forum already. How about posting the whole sentence/comment/quote instead of just the Daily Mail snippet ..... I think you'll find he was saying something quite different.

Bob24

Lemming wrote: »

Oh joy; that selective click-bait comment again, which has been beaten to death on this forum already. How about posting the whole sentence/comment/quote instead of just the Daily Mail snippet ..... I think you'll find he was saying something quite different.

I happen to be a daily reader of Le Figaro - which is the paper to which he said that in an interview - and I read the quote first hand in the context of the full interview when it was published. The particular point did stand out from the rest and he was saying exactly what the quote implies: the more nation states sign extensive treaties with each other, the more they reduce future democratic choices for their citizens (as choices can only be made within the boundaries of the treaties, and treaties are virtually impossible to amend when 27 countries need to approve the amendments).

Akrasia

Bob24 wrote: »

The selfish side of me has the credit card ready to purchase a few expensive things I have been thinking of in case the pound drops abruptly and it takes some time for prices to be adjusted :-)

how quickly will the import taxes be imposed?

Bob24

Akrasia wrote: »

how quickly will the import taxes be imposed?

I think whatever happens you are safe for a few years ;-)

djpbarry

whatever_ wrote: »

Immigration is a complex issue in Britain. Most of us have been living with the pros and cons of this for decades and people who link "anti-immigration" with "racism" only show their own lack of understanding of the issue. For many ordinary people it is about access to services (housing, schools, hospitals, public transport etc).

But those concerns are almost always totally misplaced. Immigrants may need the same services as natives, but people very often forget that (a) immigrants are also paying taxes to fund said services and (b) they often work as providers of those services too.

So you’re right, (im)migration is a very complex issue, but it is regularly portrayed as being an incredibly simple one by the likes of UKIP.

whatever_ wrote: »

Likewise, there is an assumption in some quarters that because so many of the economists tell us so, "Remaining" must be better for the economy. Economists are good at predicting the effect of incremental change (e.g. what will happen if we raise public spending by 1% or lower interest rates by 0.5%). However economists have failed us time and time again when it comes to predicting the effects of large change ( tracking the ERM, not joining the Euro, the credit crunch).

No, they haven’t. The media often portray economists as people sitting in ivory towers making little more than educated guesses about the future, but the reality is that economists get it right far more often than they get it wrong.

For example, you make reference to the “credit crunch” – virtually every economic organisation in the world was warning about the dangers of overheated property markets long before the crash hit, but, particularly in Ireland, nobody wanted to listen.

Sam Russell

djpbarry wrote: »

For example, you make reference to the “credit crunch” – virtually every economic organisation in the world was warning about the dangers of overheated property markets long before the crash hit, but, particularly in Ireland, nobody wanted to listen.

In fact one very senior politician suggested that such people who were warning about a crash should go and commit suicide.

Bob24

djpbarry wrote: »

But those concerns are almost always totally misplaced. Immigrants may need the same services as natives, but people very often forget that (a) immigrants are also paying taxes to fund said services and (b) they often work as providers of those services too.

So you’re right, (im)migration is a very complex issue, but it is regularly portrayed as being an incredibly simple one by the likes of UKIP.

The problem is the simplistic view expressed by some of the so-called populists is too often used do suppress any discussion and replace it with equally simplistic and short term arguments going they other way.

While correct, the two points you are mentioning are very limited in scope as they only look at the economic impact of immigration and only on a fairly short time frame.

Cultural impact, long term economic impact (how descendant of immigrant are doing compared to their parents), side-effect on the rest of society, and the fact that different immigration groups can "perform" very differently are subtleties which are often not addressed. In short, many people who argue against their populist enemies are as manichaean as they accuse others of beeing and definitely like making immigration a very simplistic and binary yes/no choice.