Brexit Referendum Superthread

Bob24

molloyjh wrote: »

This. All the EU are doing is acknowledging that Article 50 will be invoked and ensuring that they are good to go as soon as it is. Which is exactly what they should be doing. How it can be twisted any other way is beyond me, although I'm not surprised that it is being.

We will talk again when Barnier starts meeting with British officials even though article 50 is not triggered and his role as a negotiator hasn't even officially started. If that doesn't happen I will happily admit I was wrong. Will you admit you were wrong if it does?

ancapailldorcha

molloyjh wrote: »

This. All the EU are doing is acknowledging that Article 50 will be invoked and ensuring that they are good to go as soon as it is. Which is exactly what they should be doing. How it can be twisted any other way is beyond me, although I'm not surprised that it is being.

I was expecting some sort of stalling from the EU though. It looks like they want this over and done with ASAP. It's good to see them acting promptly in any case.

Pro Hoc Vice

Bob24 wrote: »

Not what I said though. He will obviously start informally under a different title and form a team top to bottom.

The role will officially only start in October. The announcement that early is purely a communication exercise and nothing technical.

I take from it the EU is telling the UK we are preparing and will be ready when you are.

molloyjh

Bob24 wrote: »

We will talk again when Barnier starts meeting with British officials even though article 50 is not triggered and his role as a negotiator hasn't even officially started. If that doesn't happen I will happily admit I was wrong. Will you admit you were wrong if it does?

I'll admit I was wrong if they start negotiating before Article 50 is triggered. A meeting is not the same thing as negotiating though so even if they do meet that doesn't really mean a huge amount. That could just be setting out the agenda and scheduling the negotiations, which should be done in advance as well if possible.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I was expecting some sort of stalling from the EU though. It looks like they want this over and done with ASAP. It's good to see them acting promptly in any case.

The EU have already said they want this done and dusted ASAP haven't they? This all fits with that approach.

CMOTDibbler

Bob24 wrote: »

We will talk again when Barnier starts meeting with British officials even though article 50 is not trigger and his role as a negotiator hasn't even officially started. If that doesn't happen I will happily admit I was wrong.

Well Juncker has said that Bernier won't be talking to them until they invoke Article 50.

"The British Government needs several months to fine tune its position. Our British friends know that there will be no negotiation before notification of their farewell letter."

CMOTDibbler

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Well Juncker has said that Bernier won't be talking to them until they invoke Article 50.

Negotiating != Talking

CMOTDibbler

Deleted User wrote: »

Negotiating != Talking

Is this pedantry?*

I would have thought the quote made it clear.






*If not, as you were.

Zubeneschamali

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Is this pedantry?

It is possible that both sides are right here, that the EU will talk to the English about what will be in the negotiations, but that official negotiations won't begin until after Article 50 is invoked.

Arguably Juncker is talking to them in this quote (although he phrases it carefully to give himself deniability).

Clearlier

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It is possible that both sides are right here, that the EU will talk to the English about what will be in the negotiations, but that official negotiations won't begin until after Article 50 is invoked.

Arguably Juncker is talking to them in this quote (although he phrases it carefully to give himself deniability).

It looks like there will be negotiations about the negotiations and I'd imagine that the lines will get a little blurry from time to time.

CMOTDibbler

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Is this pedantry?*

Absolutely.

Bob24

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It is possible that both sides are right here, that the EU will talk to the English about what will be in the negotiations, but that official negotiations won't begin until after Article 50 is invoked.

Yes.

Clearly no official negotiations will take place before article 50 is invoked.

But there could well be behind closed door discussions to try and find an agreement on what type of relationship with the EU the UK will be seeking once article 50 is invoked (so that no time is wasted trying to agree on the framework and practical talks can start straight away after the UK invokes the article).

View

Bob24 wrote: »

But there could well be behind closed door discussions to try and find an agreement on what type of relationship with the EU the UK will be seeking once article 50 is invoked

It is up to a departing member state to state what, if any, future relationship it wants with the EU.

In other words, the ball is entirely in its court. The other member states are not going to even consider this until the departing member state "hits" the ball out of its court and into that of the remaining member states. Only then will they collectively and individually consider the preference expressed by the departing member state.

Calina

View wrote: »

It is up to a departing member state to state what, if any, future relationship it wants with the EU.

In other words, the ball is entirely in its court. The other member states are not going to even consider this until the departing member state "hits" the ball out of its court and into that of the remaining member states. Only then will they collectively and individually consider the preference expressed by the departing member state.

But they are getting a team together and will be prepared for it which is something the departing country has not yet apparently managed.

Bob24

View wrote: »

Bob24 wrote: »

But there could well be behind closed door discussions to try and find an agreement on what type of relationship with the EU the UK will be seeking once article 50 is invoked

It is up to a departing member state to state what, if any, future relationship it wants with the EU.

In other words, the ball is entirely in its court. The other member states are not going to even consider this until the departing member state "hits" the ball out of its court and into that of the remaining member states. Only then will they collectively and individually consider the preference expressed by the departing member state.

We shall see, but I expect that once the UK invokes article 50 it will emerge that a consensus already exists on what the target model should be.

Bob24

View wrote: »

Bob24 wrote: »

But there could well be behind closed door discussions to try and find an agreement on what type of relationship with the EU the UK will be seeking once article 50 is invoked

It is up to a departing member state to state what, if any, future relationship it wants with the EU.

In other words, the ball is entirely in its court. The other member states are not going to even consider this until the departing member state "hits" the ball out of its court and into that of the remaining member states. Only then will they collectively and individually consider the preference expressed by the departing member state.

We shall see, but I wouldn't be surprised if once the UK invokes article 50 it emerges that a consensus already exists on what the target model should be.

View

Bob24 wrote: »

We shall see, but I wouldn't be surprised if once the UK invokes article 50 it emerges that a consensus already exists on what the target model should be.

We shall indeed but as of now there doesn't appear to be a consensus amongst the UK cabinet as to what they want, so it is pointless for the other EU member states to devote large amounts of time, energy and tax-payers' money to this until the UK decides what it would prefer.

After that it is up to the other member states and they may well decide they have their own pre-conditions before they'll negotiate the UK's preferred relationship (eg FoM is a mandatory prerequisite etc).

Calina

Bob24 wrote: »

I will just point out that the people who were saying a few weeks ago that no negotiation could take place before article 50 was invoked have just appointed a lead negotiator.

To be honest, I don't see why you have a problem with this. Article 50 will be invoked at some point. A prudent organisation would certainly be preparing for it by starting to get a team in place, especially the team at the top. BUt this does not imply negotiations start now. It just means some people have a clue about what's necessary and are making sure they continue to have a clue.

Bob24 wrote: »

Getting ready is indeed the duty if the commission. But officially appointing a lead negotiator is sending a political message. He could have prepared for the talks under a different title.

I disagree. If he is going to be the chief negotiator, he can prepare for the talks under that title.

We are where we are, not because the EU did anything, but because Britain actively voted their way out. It seems to be beyond the understanding of many Brexit voters if here and BTL at the Guardian are to be believed but it does mean that Britain does not get to dictate how the other side prepare for negotiations. I will say this though - it's remarkable how many Brexit voters are trying to put the brakes on the process. One would almost take the view that they are neither prepared nor clued in about how to get prepared. He should be called something other than negotiator is an example of giving an impression that that you do not know what is at stake here.

The political decision was Britain's. The Commission's decision is practical and honest. Calling Barnier something else would be wrong. I don't know if you've ever worked in setting something up but there is actually quite a lot of practical work to be done before things get established. It's not a case of Britain invoking Article 50 and the Commission flutering around trying to get a team together then. If you don't like the person responsible for that negotiation being called a negotiator you might want to consider how much faith you have in the decision to exit in the first place.

Calina

Bob24 wrote: »

We shall see, but I wouldn't be surprised if once the UK invokes article 50 it emerges that a consensus already exists on what the target model should be.

One would hope so after all, it's the Brits have to come up with some ideas on that front.

Bob24

Bob24 wrote: »

We shall see, but I expect that once the UK invokes article 50 it will emerge that a consensus already exists on what the target model should be.

I agree. Especially given that May has explicitly said as much!

Bob24

Calina wrote: »

Bob24 wrote: »

We shall see, but I wouldn't be surprised if once the UK invokes article 50 it emerges that a consensus already exists on what the target model should be.

One would hope so after all, it's the Brits have to come up with some ideas on that front.

If you hope so, then you are also hoping for some talks and pre-negotiations before article 50 is invoked to reach that consensus?

Bob24

View wrote: »

Bob24 wrote: »

We shall see, but I wouldn't be surprised if once the UK invokes article 50 it emerges that a consensus already exists on what the target model should be.

We shall indeed but as of now there doesn't appear to be a consensus amongst the UK cabinet as to what they want, so it is pointless for the other EU member states to devote large amounts of time, energy and tax-payers' money to this until the UK decides what it would prefer.

After that it is up to the other member states and they may well decide they have their own pre-conditions before they'll negotiate the UK's preferred relationship (eg FoM is a mandatory prerequisite etc).

For sure before the UK government has to have a decent idea of what it is looking for before even informal talks can start, and defining this should be one of their top priorities for the coming weeks. But it can be an iterative process: they can have a quiet meeting suggesting ideas, the EC negotiation team come back with some feedback, and so on...

molloyjh

Bob24 wrote: »

For sure before the UK government has to have a decent idea of what it is looking for before even informal talks can start, and defining this should be one of their top priorities for the coming weeks. But it can be an iterative process: they can have a quiet meeting suggesting ideas, the EC negotiation team come back with some feedback, and so on...

They could. But it's far more likely that the EU are putting together the team for this now because there is preparatory work required before negotiations begin. They don't just rock up on the day and say "Alright lads, so what's the plan?". From the EU side alone they need to get their list of requirements and desired outcomes documented so that they are going in fully prepared. With over two dozen Member States to consult with (who themselves need to prepare their own requirements and desired outcomes) that takes time. All of tha work has to happen before any talks with the UK take place.

So while it is possible that there may be exploratory talks before A50 is triggered, the chances of that actually happening are slim given the large body of work required to even get to that point by both sides.

Charles Babbage

Brexit, in a few easy steps

mickoneill31

Bob24 wrote: »

We shall see, but I wouldn't be surprised if once the UK invokes article 50 it emerges that a consensus already exists on what the target model should be.

Well of course the UK should have a consensus of what the target is before pressing the button.
The EU might not agree with it though. That's when the fun begins.

Bob24

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Bob24 wrote: »

We shall see, but I wouldn't be surprised if once the UK invokes article 50 it emerges that a consensus already exists on what the target model should be.

Well of course the UK should have a consensus of what the target is before pressing the button.
The EU might not agree with it though. That's when the fun begins.

I wasn't talking about consensus within the uk (which indeed of course need to exist), rather broad consensus between the UK and the EC.

mickoneill31

Bob24 wrote: »

I wasn't talking about consensus within the uk (which indeed of course need to exist), rather broad consensus between the UK and the EC.

Ah. Sorry about that so.

embraer170

Bob24 wrote: »

I wasn't talking about consensus within the uk, rather broad consensus between the UK and the EC.

That is unlikely. We will see an attempt to have an informal consensus between the UK and individual EU Member States (negotiated on an individual basis) but I doubt you will see that between the UK the European Commission.

I am not sure how meaningful that will be because individual Member State interests often change when formal negotiations begin at the Institutional level with 27 (in this case 26) other States to decide on a common position. Some may become a lot more ambitious about what they can get out of it, others less so.

Calina

Bob24 wrote: »

I wasn't talking about consensus within the uk (which indeed of course need to exist), rather broad consensus between the UK and the EC.

I suspect you'll find that happens not in the Commission but in council, between the heads of state. Barnier's job will then be to carry out the actual negotiations and the detailed point by point.

But again I want to reiterate: the EU side are demonstrating competence and preparedness in a way that UK absolutely are not. Note, by the way, that Liam Fox wants shot of the basic customs union and if he gets that, then May's and Kenny's comments about no hard border between the North and the Republic will be meaningless and there will be a lot more for Barnier to be negotiating.

molloyjh

Bob24 wrote: »

I wasn't talking about consensus within the uk (which indeed of course need to exist), rather broad consensus between the UK and the EC.

In all honesty I hope that happens. It only makes sense to have exploratory talks. From a British perspective they need to know what is realistic and not so that they can make the final call on if/when the will actually trigger Article 50. From an EU perspective it would make sense as it would make the negotiation part far more straight forward. There's going to be enough work in untangling the relationship and putting the new one in place. The last thing anyone needs is a protracted negotiation process.

That said, just because the EU are putting the team together to manage the negotiations now does not mean there will be any such exploratory talks, never mind negotiations ahead of Article 50. There is a huge body of work to be done within the EU itself before they can possibly meet with anyone from the UK side. And there's the added complication of the UK being part of the EU now, so any discussions with EU bodies will likely involve the UK in some way. They also need to figure out how to manage that.

Bob24

Yes - there is obviously no guarantee these exploratory talks will happen, but appointing a chief negotiator is a gesture of good will.

And to clarify what I meant, of course if these talks happen no-one will commit to anything. But all parties (EC, UK, other member states) might find it a good idea to probe what is hoped for / acceptable to others, so that they already have common grounds and a target model when article 50 is invoked (of course this doesn't mean they target model will be achieved, but it would at least be useful as a guideline to get started).

Also and as raised by Calina the position taken by the European Comission will be interesting. Member states have already entrusted it with quite an important mandate in terms of international negotiations when they give it authority to negotiate the transatlantic treaty (though I am sure they are having a lot of background talks to requests their national interests are preserved). They might or might not do the same with Brexit and will have to clarify that position in the next few weeks/months (I also think there will be a tendency to give priority to the European council so that each member state is directly represented).