Brexit Referendum Superthread

Patser

Bob24 wrote: »

The Sunday Time is reporting today that ministers have been privately saying the government is planning to delay the invocation of article 50 until the end of 2017. I understand their reasons, but this might be difficult. There will be both pressure from the inside with Brexit voters asking why things are not moving faster and from the outside with EU institutions and leaders tired of being in limbo.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-will-be-delayed-until-end-of-2019-6kxb7sgrr

Here's the RTE take on the Times article

http://m.rte.ie/news/2016/0814/809198-brexit-delays-2019/

Basically saying the British Govt are in no way ready to start Article 50, they haven’t the staff in place, facilities for the staff anyway or even a clear plan of what they'll be asking for?

So it looks like it'll turn into a long dragged out exit programme.

wes

Patser wrote: »

So it looks like it'll turn into a long dragged out exit programme.

Well, that is bad news for everyone, and I can only imagine that dragging things out, will just annoy everyone else in Europe who want to get on with things. If the British do drag things out, I think the EU will need to play hard ball with the UK then.

Patser

wes wrote: »

Well, that is bad news for everyone, and I can only imagine that dragging things out, will just annoy everyone else in Europe who want to get on with things. If the British do drag things out, I think the EU will need to play hard ball with the UK then.

It's worse than that. The RTE article (and Times I assume) mention that even at this stage, they've only recruited 100 of the estimated 1000 negotiationing staff they'll need in their Brexit ministry - and that they've still no clear plan of what they'll be trying to do.

So it's not like they're dragging it out just to fine tune their plans, they're stalling because they haven’t even started to plan and even with the delays they'll effectively be negotiationing on the fly and playing catch up.

So it's a long drawn out Brexit with huge amounts of uncertainty thrown in too.

djpbarry

Patser wrote: »

So it's a long drawn out Brexit with huge amounts of uncertainty thrown in too.

Which is precisely what was predicted prior to the referendum, but the Leave camp still insisted everything could be done and dusted by the next general election.

Lemming

djpbarry wrote: »

Which is precisely what was predicted prior to the referendum, but the Leave camp still insisted everything could be done and dusted by the next general election.

Without involving "experts", because everyone is apparently sick of them, but only when they point out the glaring fallacies in the leave campaign's "plan" "idea on a beer-mat".

oscarBravo

djpbarry wrote: »

Which is precisely what was predicted prior to the referendum...

...and derided as "Project Fear".

wes

Patser wrote: »

So it's not like they're dragging it out just to fine tune their plans, they're stalling because they haven’t even started to plan and even with the delays they'll effectively be negotiationing on the fly and playing catch up.

I understand there in a sorry state alright, but we should only have so much sympathy. If the British take to long to get there house in order, we need to act, to protect ourselves.

Now we can't force them to trigger article 50, but if they start to take the piss, the EU should make it very clear, that we will make life very very difficult for them during negotiations, if they take too long. Perhaps start taking stuff off the table, before we even start.

We really need to get this bloody nonsense finished as quick as we can.

Bit cynical

wes wrote: »

I understand there in a sorry state alright, but we should only have so much sympathy. If the British take to long to get there house in order, we need to act, to protect ourselves.

Now we can't force them to trigger article 50, but if they start to take the piss, the EU should make it very clear, that we will make life very very difficult for them during negotiations, if they take too long. Perhaps start taking stuff off the table, before we even start.

We really need to get this bloody nonsense finished as quick as we can.

Not sure given Ireland's exports to Britain that what you are suggesting would be in our interests. We do want the process to move along swiftly but we want a good trade deal between the EU and Britain because that is also a good trade deal between Ireland and Britain.

wes

Bit cynical wrote: »

Not sure given Ireland's exports to Britain that what you are suggesting would be in our interests. We do want the process to move along swiftly but we want a good trade deal between the EU and Britain because that is also a good trade deal between Ireland and Britain.

A lengthy process could hurt us, so we would have to very careful, not to hurt ourselves, but again if the UK takes forever to trigger article 50, it will hurts us as well. Still, we should probably try and move away from trade with the UK, if it starts to look like there going to take forever.

I am not entirely sure what we could do, but we should come up with some kind of contingency and consider all our options, if the UK drags there heels.

embraer170

Patser wrote: »

It's worse than that. The RTE article (and Times I assume) mention that even at this stage, they've only recruited 100 of the estimated 1000 negotiationing staff they'll need in their Brexit ministry - and that they've still no clear plan of what they'll be trying to do.

I wonder how they are recruiting?

So far, there has been nothing on the UK Public Jobs website so I assume it has been internal transfers (and possibly headhunting, if it's compatible with their recruitment policy?).

Calina

embraer170 wrote: »

I wonder how they are recruiting?

So far, there has been nothing on the UK Public Jobs website so I assume it has been internal transfers (and possibly headhunting, if it's compatible with their recruitment policy?).

They have been looking for internal transfers afaik. May also be tapping their rep in Brussels.

Sam Russell

embraer170 wrote: »

I wonder how they are recruiting?

So far, there has been nothing on the UK Public Jobs website so I assume it has been internal transfers (and possibly headhunting, if it's compatible with their recruitment policy?).

Have you been checking out the New Zealand press for adverts? They have lots of trade negotiators just waiting for the call.

embraer170

Calina wrote: »

They have been looking for internal transfers afaik. May also be tapping their rep in Brussels.

True, but the permanent rep in Brussels isn't that big and still has to keep the local show running.

A Dub in Glasgo

I wonder how much extra in staff costs this Brexit is costing the UK taxpayer

Bit cynical

wes wrote: »

A lengthy process could hurt us, so we would have to very careful, not to hurt ourselves, but again if the UK takes forever to trigger article 50, it will hurts us as well. Still, we should probably try and move away from trade with the UK, if it starts to look like there going to take forever.

I am not entirely sure what we could do, but we should come up with some kind of contingency and consider all our options, if the UK drags there heels.

There's a balance to be struck. On the one hand dragging it out is damaging. On the other hand rushing will lead to a deal which is bad for Britain and, by extension, bad for ourselves.

CMOTDibbler

Haven't been looking for a while but am more than a little shocked to see that sterling has now dropped below €1.16.

djpbarry

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Haven't been looking for a while but am more than a little shocked to see that sterling has now dropped below €1.16.

But retail sales are up, so everything's fine.

Possibly an indication that everyone's buying what they can before their savings are wiped out.

wes

djpbarry wrote: »

But retail sales are up, so everything's fine.

Possibly an indication that everyone's buying what they can before their savings are wiped out.

Sure and people from Ireland buying stuff from the UK as well.

djpbarry

djpbarry wrote: »

But retail sales are up, so everything's fine.

Possibly an indication that everyone's buying what they can before their savings are wiped out.

This thread is hilarious. I hope it never closes. There will still be people here in a decade, declaring that the Apocalypse is imminent, like some ludicrous pentecostal movement.

Wanderer78

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote:

This thread is hilarious. I hope it never closes. There will still be people here in a decade, declaring that the Apocalypse is imminent, like some ludicrous pentecostal movement.

The apocalypse happened long time ago, the planet can't wait to get rid of us humans, so it can be in peace

djpbarry

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

This thread is hilarious. I hope it never closes. There will still be people here in a decade, declaring that the Apocalypse is imminent, like some ludicrous pentecostal movement.

You don't do humour, do you?

ancapailldorcha

Wanderer78 wrote: »

The apocalypse happened long time ago, the planet can't wait to get rid of us humans, so it can be in peace

And yet the population is projected to rise to 10 billion by 2050. Pretty handy apocalypse so.

djpbarry

djpbarry wrote: »

You don't do humour, do you?

Of course I do. Why else would I read your predictions?

Suryavarman

I don't know why some people expect economic catastrophe so soon after the referendum nor do I see why people are holding up any positive news or lack of bad news as evidence that voting to leave was the right decision.

The economy should only really be expected to go into recession after Britain actually leaves the EU. That is when tariff barriers will be erected with all its main trading partners. It should be noted that such a recession, if it were to occur, would likely be moderate and quick. Britain would then return to growth albeit along a permanently lower growth path.

The only effect the vote should have before Brexit is official is that investment would fall and therefore growth would slow down.

Wanderer78

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

And yet the population is projected to rise to 10 billion by 2050. Pretty handy apocalypse so.

ah that should just speed things up a bit

CMOTDibbler

Europe's biggest stock exchange considering a move outside London after Britain's vote to leave the EU and possibly eying up Dublin as an alternative.

We are looking at the underlying legal framework of a country and Ireland is quite attractive because it's the most similar to the UK structure.

karma_

I got a letter in this morning from my main supplier for my business. It specifically named Brexit and the resulting value of the Pound, across the board everything has gone up 10%.

CMOTDibbler

karma_ wrote: »

I got a letter in this morning from my main supplier for my business. It specifically named Brexit and the resulting value of the Pound, across the board everything has gone up 10%.

Yeah, it's only to be expected. A lot of UK businesses are distribution hubs where they import from mainland Europe and distribute around the UK. Ireland is usually included as it's too small a market to be able to sustain such a business model because there's too much shipping and handling.

So if the pound drops against the Euro, their costs go up and that means their prices have to go up too. 10% is about where the pound is against pre Brexit values. They're not taking any kind of a hit themselves to soften the blow though.

When the UK actually triggers Article 50 and they have left the EU, the model of being based in the UK and importing/exporting mightn't be sustainable. It really depends on the cost of transport and the relative values of the pound and the euro as to whether those businesses would be better partly basing themselves in Europe or not.

Burty330

So can paddies still go and work in the UK at this time? Are national insurance numbers still being issued?

Scofflaw

Burty330 wrote: »

So can paddies still go and work in the UK at this time? Are national insurance numbers still being issued?

The Irish should go on being able to go to work in the UK, since our status is covered by separate legislation that has nothing to do with the EU.

cordially,
Scofflaw