Brexit Referendum Superthread

Nody

BoatMad wrote: »

I would agree with this , article 50 will be delayed for a long time as the UK tries to establish a position with the EU . The result will look an awful like what the UK has today !!

Only if Theresa May does not send in the letter; based on her answers she does not feel the need for a parlament vote and if she lose the election I can see her send it in out of spite.

Calina

Nody wrote: »

Only if Theresa May does not send in the letter; based on her answers she does not feel the need for a parlament vote and if she lose the election I can see her send it in out of spite.

I thought Cameron would do that for that reason.

However, if May winds up calling an election for whatever reason (they have fixed terms barring a couple of key situations atm), my guess is, if she hadn't already invoked Article 50, she'd be better off leaving it till after the election. In a way, Article 50 is very much a hot potato politically in the UK right now. Were May to get ousted as leader of the Tory party though...it would be interesting to see where a follow up leader would come from if A50 still hadn't been invoked. Johnson would have to do it if he were to retain any credibility, or at least get any of it back.

Leonard Hofstadter

What's terrifying is that there is no alternative to the Tories.

Labour are totally unelectable at the moment and I will not vote for them so long as Jezza is leader. I'd hope by putting in Smith they would get rid of him closer to the election and put someone properly decent and electable in after that, but if Smith stays true to his word about the EU and insisting that we have a vote on the terms of any Brexit deal, that will do fine for me. The Lib Dems are the best hope, they are the only ones that are sane in the UK at the moment, they are pro-EU and not bonkers left wing and irrelevant like Labour under Jezza's leadership, but they're just so weak and FPTP is totally discriminatory against them.

Lemming

captainspeed wrote: »

The Lib Dems are the best hope, they are the only ones that are sane in the UK at the moment, they are pro-EU and not bonkers left wing and irrelevant like Labour under Jezza's leadership, but they're just so weak and FPTP is totally discriminatory against them.

The LibDems need time to rebuild - they took an awful pounding at the last GE, and even local elections have not been overly kind to them although they've had some small gains. I'm not sure just how effective Fallon is as a leader but then again he's not really been given much opportunity (or else the media have just been ignoring him in rapture to the absolute carnage/soap opera that is Labour at the moment, and the ongoing farce that is Brexit).

To be frank, I'd quite like to see the LibDems wield a bit of power if nothing more than to shake the two incumbent parties up and force them to evolve. They're a progressive, moderate party who fit quite nicely into the centre of politics rather than hanging off the left or right wings.

In the meantime, there really is no credible option to the Tories; how f*cked up is that?

Leonard Hofstadter

A VERY interesting article in the Torygraph about the EU's attitude towards the negotiations:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/09/uk-completely-lost-post-brexit-and-will-plead-for-a-deal-top-bru/

Basically, they believe (as all of those, myself included, in the UK who espoused a remain vote) that the UK will be in a LOT of trouble without the EU, the EU is quite happy with the frosty reception the UK got from the US at G20, not to mention that this much vaunted free trade deal with Australia is still behind their deal with Australia.

The EU also have other 'treats' in store if Brexit becomes a reality for British citizens; they're on about bringing in an EU version of the ESTA form one has to fill out for the US as a way of implementing controls on migration not to mention dealing with security issues, once Britain is out of the EU all UK citizens will have to fill out the form and pay.

I won't say I've got schadenfreude, as I'm a UK resident and therefore I have a vested interest in seeing the UK doing well (not to mention it is certainly not in Ireland's interests for the UK's economy to be doing badly), but the next few years are going to be great craic altogether watching every single promise made by the idiotic leave campaigners fall apart:D:D.

Calina

captainspeed wrote: »

A VERY interesting article in the Torygraph about the EU's attitude towards the negotiations:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/09/uk-completely-lost-post-brexit-and-will-plead-for-a-deal-top-bru/

Basically, they believe (as all of those, myself included, in the UK who espoused a remain vote) that the UK will be in a LOT of trouble without the EU, the EU is quite happy with the frosty reception the UK got from the US at G20, not to mention that this much vaunted free trade deal with Australia is still behind their deal with Australia.

The EU also have other 'treats' in store if Brexit becomes a reality for British citizens; they're on about bringing in an EU version of the ESTA form one has to fill out for the US as a way of implementing controls on migration not to mention dealing with security issues, once Britain is out of the EU all UK citizens will have to fill out the form and pay.

I won't say I've got schadenfreude, as I'm a UK resident and therefore I have a vested interest in seeing the UK doing well (not to mention it is certainly not in Ireland's interests for the UK's economy to be doing badly), but the next few years are going to be great craic altogether watching every single promise made by the idiotic leave campaigners fall apart:D:D.

MAny of them already have and they didn't have a coherent vision up front.

I must say I was quite entertained by Nigel Farrage's response to the European Parliament selecting Guy Verhofstadt as euparl's chief negotiator. Youtube has a few entertaining examples of Verhofstadt reading the riot act to Viktor Orban and Alexis Tsipris amongst others.

Liam Fox's comments on British business being lazy won't have endeared him to the sector he needs support from either.

BlitzKrieg

I actually like Guy Verhofstadt for the most part. I disagree on some of his main issues (EU military and neutering of the Council) but he always comes across as a politician who will still work hard even if its not for his own goals, which is probably why he's always been one of the most critical of UKIP, not so much of the anti EU status but that they would still take the money and status of an MEP but do nothing. It was one of his first comments post brexit that they could finally stop wasting money on them.

Leonard Hofstadter

Calina wrote: »

MAny of them already have and they didn't have a coherent vision up front.

I must say I was quite entertained by Nigel Farrage's response to the European Parliament selecting Guy Verhofstadt as euparl's chief negotiator. Youtube has a few entertaining examples of Verhofstadt reading the riot act to Viktor Orban and Alexis Tsipris amongst others.

Liam Fox's comments on British business being lazy won't have endeared him to the sector he needs support from either.

Mr, sorry, Dr (as he likes to be called) Fox, is some clown. For someone who is obviously intelligent, he really manages to put his foot in it some times.

It's becoming more and more obvious that the UK really hasn't a clue what they're doing about Brexit. With utterances like Fox's you can see that the Brexiteers are already looking to shift the blame for when it inevitably goes wrong.

Nody

captainspeed wrote: »

It's becoming more and more obvious that the UK really hasn't a clue what they're doing about Brexit. With utterances like Fox's you can see that the Brexiteers are already looking to shift the blame for when it inevitably goes wrong.

Well he's asking them to do his job after all...

“What is the point of us reshaping global trade, what is the point of us going out and looking for new markets for the United Kingdom, if we don't have the exporters to fill those markets?”

Demanding a culture change, Dr Fox added: “People have got to stop thinking about exporting as an opportunity and start thinking about it as a duty – companies who could be contributing to our national prosperity but choose not to, because it might be too difficult or too time-consuming, or because they can’t play golf on a Friday afternoon.”

I'm sorry but I guess that was the whole point of your role Mr Fox or did you miss the memo?

The Secretary of State is responsible for the work of the Department for International Trade, including:

developing, co-ordinating and delivering a new trade and investment policy to promote UK business across the globe
developing and negotiating free trade agreements and market access deals with non-EU countries
negotiating plurilateral trade deals (focused on specific sectors or products)
providing operational support for exports and facilitating inward and outward investment

Eddy_Phelan

Hi everyone,

I live in England (Irish family) and I am a first time poster, so please go easy on me.

The situation here is incredibly depressing; the country seems to be lurching more and more to the right and isolationism. It amazes me that the general population seem to not care at all that they were lied to with regards to the extra money for the NHS and the effect that Brexit will have on the economy. I was even told by someone that Leave voters are less materialistic and therefore don't care that there is going to be less money.

There is no advantage to the UK leaving the EU, none at all. There are noises that they will not introduce a hard border between the north and the south- how is that going to work? They keep banging on about having 'control' over borders, yet advocate an open border with the EU? haha

Sadly the English's lack of ability for conducting critical analysis of themselves and their general arrogance will come back to haunt. I am still clinging onto the hope that public opinion will change when they realise how stupid the whole thing is, I won't be holding my breath though.

Cheers
Ed

Thomas_...

Eddy_Phelan wrote: »

Hi everyone,

I live in England (Irish family) and I am a first time poster, so please go easy on me.

The situation here is incredibly depressing; the country seems to be lurching more and more to the right and isolationism. It amazes me that the general population seem to not care at all that they were lied to with regards to the extra money for the NHS and the effect that Brexit will have on the economy. I was even told by someone that Leave voters are less materialistic and therefore don't care that there is going to be less money.

There is no advantage to the UK leaving the EU, none at all. There are noises that they will not introduce a hard border between the north and the south- how is that going to work? They keep banging on about having 'control' over borders, yet advocate an open border with the EU? haha

Sadly the English's lack of ability for conducting critical analysis of themselves and their general arrogance will come back to haunt. I am still clinging onto the hope that public opinion will change when they realise how stupid the whole thing is, I won't be holding my breath though.

Cheers
Ed

Welcome Ed and thanks for your post. I´ve foreseen that shift to the right by people in GB due to the Brexit. The English´s lack of ability for conducting critical analysis of themselves and their general arrogance was always there, it just comes more to the fore these days and it was encouraged by the likes of Farage and Johnson. This is certainly a much more different thing among those 48% who voted for remain.

Inquitus

Kenny re-iterates to the UK that no Single Market Access without Freedom of movement. Surely this must begin to permeate through the heads of Theresa May's Trio of incredibly dense Brexit ministers at some point?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ireland-idUKKCN11I0RI

Nody

Inquitus wrote: »

Kenny re-iterates to the UK that no Single Market Access without Freedom of movement. Surely this must begin to permeate through the heads of Theresa May's Trio of incredibly dense Brexit ministers at some point?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ireland-idUKKCN11I0RI

Already have; what has not is how they are to handle the black hole that comes with staying outside the market which does not involve magical beans (i.e. how are they going to make things actually work out in practical terms).

ancapailldorcha

Lemming wrote: »

The LibDems need time to rebuild - they took an awful pounding at the last GE, and even local elections have not been overly kind to them although they've had some small gains. I'm not sure just how effective Fallon is as a leader but then again he's not really been given much opportunity (or else the media have just been ignoring him in rapture to the absolute carnage/soap opera that is Labour at the moment, and the ongoing farce that is Brexit).

To be frank, I'd quite like to see the LibDems wield a bit of power if nothing more than to shake the two incumbent parties up and force them to evolve. They're a progressive, moderate party who fit quite nicely into the centre of politics rather than hanging off the left or right wings.

In the meantime, there really is no credible option to the Tories; how f*cked up is that?

They did but what they were thinking reneging on their core promise I'll never know. There's a huge amount of room at the moment for a Centrist, Liberal movement to challenge the Tories. Farron does seem to be in touch with younger voters but might be too much of a leftie for England. Time will tell. Norman Lamb is giving a talk here next month though sadly, I will be away.

Inquitus wrote: »

Kenny re-iterates to the UK that no Single Market Access without Freedom of movement. Surely this must begin to permeate through the heads of Theresa May's Trio of incredibly dense Brexit ministers at some point?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ireland-idUKKCN11I0RI

The conspiracy nut in me reckons that May's put the three stooges in charge so she can come back after a time and say that things aren't working out as was foretold by Farage and his crystal ball vis-á-vis lucrative trade deals with the rest of the world, £10 billion for the NHS and points-based immigration. It's a stretch. More likely she's trying to heal her party.

Lib Dem's won't easily be forgiven for backing down on the Student's fees.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

Lib Dem's won't easily be forgiven for backing down on the Student's fees.

With Brexit and new leadership, I wouldn't completely rule it out.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The conspiracy nut in me reckons that May's put the three stooges in charge so she can come back after a time and say that things aren't working out as was foretold by Farage and his crystal ball vis-á-vis lucrative trade deals with the rest of the world, £10 billion for the NHS and points-based immigration. It's a stretch. More likely she's trying to heal her party.

I think May wants to be another Maggie Thatcher and build a long term reputation for herself - like 'the Lady is not for turning' and 'There is no alternative' and other sound bites.

Time will tell but I expect that she is making room for a U turn.

BlitzKrieg

They did but what they were thinking reneging on their core promise I'll never know.

They banked too hard on the AV referendum going their way, the lib dems pretty much sacrificed all their core promises in the hope that killing first past the post would guarantee them future chances in power and I'm pretty sure its the price Cameron firmly stuck on even having the referendum in the first place.

Thomas_...

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think May wants to be another Maggie Thatcher and build a long term reputation for herself - like 'the Lady is not for turning' and 'There is no alternative' and other sound bites.

Time will tell but I expect that she is making room for a U turn.

Maybe, when she´s facing that there is no other choice left.

Larbre34

I think Mrs May is playing a very clever game. I know she is portrayed as a reluctant remainer, but she is above all a pragmatist and a seasoned and reasoned politician from a wealthy London commuter belt district than voted remain (54/46 Windsor and Maidenhead) so she has that in her ear all the while.

She so obviously set up the Three Brexiteers to fail and they are delivering that potential in spades already. With extreme pro-brexit campaigners in a panic at any delay to trigger Article 50 and Labour in disarray, May can play a long and considered strategy, appearing determined and serene among the clamour. This will be necessary to secure the support of swinging voters for the inevitable Brexit II campaign that has already begun, be that an actual referendum or by way of general election.

The young and productive who did not vote in June are now wise to the folly of the outcome and there is a movement, which will take some years, to reverse the result. Brexit has no shape as yet, but when some job losses kick-in and investments are lost and humiliations and exclusions of the UK in european matters occur, the wheel of opinion will come about, though at the same time it will polarize and drive jingoism and xenophobia, which is a very unfortunate side effect the UK does not need.

Thomas_...

Larbre34 wrote: »

I think Mrs May is playing a very clever game. I know she is portrayed as a reluctant remainer, but she is above all a pragmatist and a seasoned and reasoned politician from a wealthy London commuter belt district than voted remain (54/46 Windsor and Maidenhead) so she has that in her ear all the while.

She so obviously set up the Three Brexiteers to fail and they are delivering that potential in spades already. With extreme pro-brexit campaigners in a panic at any delay to trigger Article 50 and Labour in disarray, May can play a long and considered strategy, appearing determined and serene among the clamour. This will be necessary to secure the support of swinging voters for the inevitable Brexit II campaign that has already begun, be that an actual referendum or by way of general election.

The young and productive who did not vote in June are now wise to the folly of the outcome and there is a movement, which will take some years, to reverse the result. Brexit has no shape as yet, but when some job losses kick-in and investments are lost and humiliations and exclusions of the UK in european matters occur, the wheel of opinion will come about, though at the same time it will polarize and drive jingoism and xenophobia, which is a very unfortunate side effect the UK does not need.

That is a very interesting post. Depicting May as some sort of a smart false player with a hidden agenda. She might lose face by that.

Nody

Thomas_... wrote: »

That is a very interesting post. Depicting May as some sort of a smart false player with a hidden agenda. She might lose face by that.

Sounds more like a politician who knows their job and wants to make a name for herself in the years to come.

K-9

Tbh I think she has kept the 3 on the inside because it means infighting over Europe will be mostly confined to the Eurosceptic wing and not take over the whole party.

Switzerland looking for links with Frankfurt to get access to EU financial markets as obviously London doesn't really give that anymore.

Thomas_...

Nody wrote: »

Sounds more like a politician who knows their job and wants to make a name for herself in the years to come.

That remains to be seen. I don´t have her in high estimation at all.

Thomas_...

K-9 wrote: »

Tbh I think she has kept the 3 on the inside because it means infighting over Europe will be mostly confined to the Eurosceptic wing and not take over the whole party.

That makes sense. Even more so that she has the task to re-unite the party after the split upon the Brexit.

Switzerland looking for links with Frankfurt to get access to EU financial markets as obviously London doesn't really give that anymore.

Switzerland likes the cherry picking like the UK is about to follow that example, just that the UK is on the leaving foot and not like Switzerland outside of the EU with an association relationship.

The UK govt is that clueless of where to go that they always look at the patterns of other EU associated Non-EU member states like Switzerland and Norway but it won´t get the same or much similar to them by exiting the EU. Switzerland for example still has a problem with the free movement of people and that is because they have a referendum result behind their necks which is about curbing the influx of foreign nationals into Switzerland and thus getting access to the Swiss Job market.

This might also be some issue for Switzerland to get access to the EU financial market if the EU won´t give them better conditions.

Larbre34

Thomas_... wrote: »

That is a very interesting post. Depicting May as some sort of a smart false player with a hidden agenda. She might lose face by that.

She probably will lose face, but she can afford to a bit and make a few mistakes along the way, as she has no coherent opposition, within or without her own party. UK politics in its entirety is in disarray.

djpbarry

Eddy_Phelan wrote: »

Sadly the English's lack of ability for conducting critical analysis of themselves and their general arrogance will come back to haunt.

Bit unfair to reserve that label for the English - most of Wales voted to leave too.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The conspiracy nut in me reckons that May's put the three stooges in charge so she can come back after a time and say that things aren't working out as was foretold by Farage and his crystal ball vis- -vis lucrative trade deals with the rest of the world, 10 billion for the NHS and points-based immigration.

I don't think there's anything conspiratorial about it. It's a win-win situation for her. She's giving the Eurosceptics in her party a voice while simultaneously illustrating that the voice in question spouts utter nonsense.

Thomas_...

Larbre34 wrote: »

She probably will lose face, but she can afford to a bit and make a few mistakes along the way, as she has no coherent opposition, within or without her own party. UK politics in its entirety is in disarray.

The woman itself is an enigma and I wouldn´t trust her at all.

Thomas_...

djpbarry wrote: »

Bit unfair to reserve that label for the English - most of Wales voted to leave too.

...

Fair Point, just that the Welsh aren´t the one who dominate British politics.

Thomas_...

Breaking News from the BBC News Website:

EU's Juncker warns UK on single market

EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has begun his first State of the Union address since Britain's unexpected vote to leave the bloc.

There could be no "a la carte access" to the single market, he warned.

Mr Juncker is aiming to rally the 27 countries staying in the EU in the face of Brexit as well as the challenges of migration and security.

There were splits, he warned, that had led to "galloping populism" and Europe had to be protected from it.

While the EU respected and regretted the UK's decision to leave Europe, the bloc was not at risk from it, he said.

EU leaders meet in Slovakia's capital Bratislava on Friday - without UK Prime Minister Theresa May.

Late on Tuesday, European Council President Donald Tusk made his own intervention into the debate on the EU's future.

In a letter - traditionally written to leaders ahead of a summit - Mr Tusk suggested the EU should be mindful of its own ambitions in light of the Brexit vote.

"The keys to a healthy balance between the priorities of member states and those of the Union lie in national capitals," Mr Tusk said.

"The institutions should support the priorities as agreed among member states, and not impose their own ones."

For those who still believe that the UK has the chance for cherry picking in regards of her future relationship to the EU after exiting it, that´s the prospect she has and by that, the chances appear to be unaltered. Mr Tusk sounds more conciliatory but he´s not the one who can make the decisions, they will be made by all of the 27 remaining member states.