Brexit Referendum Superthread

Bob24

Thomas_... wrote: »

I think that this topic is already and will remain a big issue for the UK EU Exit negotiations from the very start of it. Mrs May has refused to give any reliable stances assurance regarding those who already lived in the UK at the date of the Referendum and that leaves the many EU nationals living there in limbo, as those UK citizens living across the EU member states as well and there are not too less of them, especially around the Med (Portugal, Spain, Greece, Malta (has many pensioners living there) and some of them in Italy and France).

Well she is free not to give any assurance (so are EU leaders not giving any about UK citizens currently living in the EU) and it makes sense as part of her negotiation strategy, but realistically at the end if the day there is not reason for the British government or EU authorities not to contemplate that kind of deal and this will probably be one of the easiest points to negotiate. How citizens moving after Brexit are treated has a lot more long term implications and will be much more difficult to negotiate.

Thomas_...

Peregrinus wrote: »

She's playing her cards close to her chest, as you'd expect before negotiations begin. But it's plainly in the interests of the UK government not to have British citizens deported from the EU-27, and few people in the UK would tolerate the deportation of EU nationals already living in the UK. And exactly the same considerations apply in reverse on the EU side. So once negotiations begin both sides will readily agree, at a minimum, that the rights of EU nationals already in the UK will not be diminished, and vice versa. If they can't agree on that then there is realistically no prospect for an agreement on Brexit terms at all.

I agree, the real issue is about continued rights of free movement. May is signalling that she wishes to limit migration from the EU, and exclusion from full participation in the single market is a consequence that she is willing to accept.

I just like to point to the families of mixed nationalities where one part is British and the other has another nationality. Deportation in regards of them would tear families apart and that would be a case for the European court of human rights as well as for the UN, a no go area for any Brit govt.

Thomas_...

Bob24 wrote: »

Well she is free not to give any assurance (so are EU leaders not giving any about UK citizens currently living in the EU) and it makes sense as part of her negotiation strategy, but realistically at the end if the day there is not reason for the British government or EU authorities not to contemplate that kind of deal and this will probably be one of the easiest points to negotiate. How citizens moving after Brexit are treated has a lot more long term implications and will be much more difficult to negotiate.

Yes, of course. This all remains to be seen and in regards to the future of movent of People into the UK, the Universities of Oxford and Cambridge (to Name just the two of them by example) have already expressed their worries about getting foreign scientists to work in their researches cos they might rather go elsewhere where they fell more welcome than in the UK. Both Universities expressed these worries already in the wake of the Brexit referendum result.

The Brit govt might set up more easy regulations for such cases but the perception some candidates now have of the UK isn´t that positive anymore and some of them who were ready to move to the UK, declined shortly after the Brexit result and also in the couple of days afterwards when the abuse and harrassment of EU nationals by Brit racists were going around the world news. The persisting uncertainty plays also an important rule in the considerations of high qualified people from abroad to decide for whether or not to settle in the UK.

Peregrinus

Thomas_... wrote: »

I just like to point to the families of mixed nationalities where one part is British and the other has another nationality. Deportation in regards of them would tear families apart and that would be a case for the European court of human rights as well as for the UN, a no go area for any Brit govt.

Well, it would't come to that. Even if there were no Brexit deal of any kind and the UK simply ceased to be a member at the end of the two-year period with no agreement, an EU national married to a British citizen could get leave to remain as the spouse of British citizen. The ordinary rule of UK immigration law and practice would allow this; they wouldn't have to rely on any special deal between the EU and the UK.

The theoretical possibility of deportation would arise for EU nationals in the UK who weren't married to UK citizens, or didn't meet other migration criteria (like having been lawfully ordinarily resident in the UK for long enough to apply for British citizenship, which of course many of them could do). In this circumstance there would be a class of EU national in the UK whom the UK could deport, if it chose to. But I seriously doubt that they would in fact choose to deport them. Even if they didn't enter into an agreement with the EU, being in control of their own immigration law they could give them a general right to remain. And they probably would; I really don't think they have the stomach for deportations. Plus, they would hope that the UK giving its EU-national residents a right to remain would put pressure on the EU to do the same for British citizens resident in the EU.

Bob24

Thomas_... wrote: »

I just like to point to the families of mixed nationalities where one part is British and the other has another nationality. Deportation in regards of them would tear families apart and that would be a case for the European court of human rights as well as for the UN, a no go area for any Brit govt.

I don't think anything like this is on the table though ...

If the non-British spouse is an EU citizen, it is likely a bilateral agreement will be found to facilitate their continued residency just because of their nationality (as mentioned in the posts above). And even if it wasn't the case, in many cases they would still have the option to apply for a residence permit as the spouse of a UK citizen.

(lastly, if they are a non-EU citizen, Brexit won't change anything for them as they already need a residence permit)

Thomas_...

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, it would't come to that. Even if there were no Brexit deal of any kind and the UK simply ceased to be a member at the end of the two-year period with no agreement, an EU national married to a British citizen could get leave to remain as the spouse of British citizen. The ordinary rule of UK immigration law and practice would allow this; they wouldn't have to rely on any special deal between the EU and the UK.

The theoretical possibility of deportation would arise for EU nationals in the UK who weren't married to UK citizens, or didn't meet other migration criteria (like having been lawfully ordinarily resident in the UK for long enough to apply for British citizenship, which of course many of them could do). In this circumstance there would be a class of EU national in the UK whom the UK could deport, if it chose to. But I seriously doubt that they would in fact choose to deport them. Even if they didn't enter into an agreement with the EU, being in control of their own immigration law they could give them a general right to remain. And they probably would; I really don't think they have the stomach for deportations. Plus, they would hope that the UK giving its EU-national residents a right to remain would put pressure on the EU to do the same for British citizens resident in the EU.

I didn´t say that the Brits would really do that, I rather expect them to put them other EU nationals on the same level of requirement for residence permission like for any other non-UK national living in the UK.

Still, the many already living there are left in persisting uncertainty for what is going to be the rule after the UK EU Exit is implemented. Until then, the EU regulations are valid there for as long as the UK is still a member of the EU.

Thomas_...

Bob24 wrote: »

I don't think anything like this is on the table though ...

If the non-British spouse is an EU citizen, it is likely a bilateral agreement will be found to facilitate their continued residency just because of their nationality (as mentioned in the posts above). And even if it wasn't the case, in many cases they would still have the option to apply for a residence permit as the spouse of a UK citizen.

(lastly, if they are a non-EU citizen, Brexit won't change anything for them as they already need a residence permit)

Mrs May still has no clue where to go and what to do exactly and is still labouring with her cabinet to work on the proposals or even "demands" for the UK-EU deal. Otherwise, there wouldn´t be a reason to not give a clear statement on such things.

Bob24

Thomas_... wrote: »

Otherwise, there wouldn´t be a reason to not give a clear statement on such things.

Negotiations haven't officially started yet (the UK hasn't even officially requested to leave). She can't officially start offering things before she is even negotiating.

Thomas_...

Bob24 wrote: »

Negotiations haven't officially started yet (the UK hasn't even officially requested to leave). She can't officially start offering things before she is even negotiating.

Yes, she could because after the UK has exited the EU it´s all left to the UK govt to accommodate those EU nationals living in the EU which she´ll have to do one way or another and whether the UK gets full or even just limited Access to the single market by either refusing or accepting the free movement of EU nationals to the UK. Even if the UK accepts that free movement of EU nationals after her Exit from the EU, those EU nationals will become obliged to apply for a residence permission in the UK anyway, unless the UK govt sees it not necessary to make them obliged to get a residence permission and the same goes with the UK nationals living in the EU. They will also have to apply for residence permissions.

Bob24

Thomas_... wrote: »

Yes, she could because after the UK has exited the EU it´s all left to the UK govt to accommodate those EU nationals living in the EU which she´ll have to do one way or another and whether the UK gets full or even just limited Access to the single market by either refusing or accepting the free movement of EU nationals to the UK. Even if the UK accepts that free movement of EU nationals after her Exit from the EU, those EU nationals will become obliged to apply for a residence permission in the UK anyway, unless the UK govt sees it not necessary to make them obliged to get a residence permission and the same goes with the UK nationals living in the EU. They will also have to apply for residence permissions.

I disagree. She can't officially make an announcement before she has assurance from the EU that it will reciprocally treat UK citizens in the same way (it has to be reciprocal). And the EU will never give that confirmation before article 50 is triggered.

Thomas_...

Bob24 wrote: »

I disagree. She can't officially make an announcement before she has assurance from the EU that it will reciprocally treat UK citizens in the same way (it has to be reciprocal). And the EU will never give that confirmation before article 50 is triggered.

I think that nobody would really in all earnest anticipate that all UK nationals were asked to leave the EU member states after the UK exited the EU. Not as long there are no far-right or other semi-Fascist Regimes installed in EU member states.

May is just like to use that subject as her "Joker" for her negotiations and she´s dishonest as well as undecent in this. But alas, I never thought much of her, she was always striking me as a person who can´t be trusted, like all those Thatcherits in the Tory Party.

Godge

Thomas_... wrote: »

Yes, of course. This all remains to be seen and in regards to the future of movent of People into the UK, the Universities of Oxford and Cambridge (to Name just the two of them by example) have already expressed their worries about getting foreign scientists to work in their researches cos they might rather go elsewhere where they fell more welcome than in the UK. Both Universities expressed these worries already in the wake of the Brexit referendum result.

The Brit govt might set up more easy regulations for such cases but the perception some candidates now have of the UK isn´t that positive anymore and some of them who were ready to move to the UK, declined shortly after the Brexit result and also in the couple of days afterwards when the abuse and harrassment of EU nationals by Brit racists were going around the world news. The persisting uncertainty plays also an important rule in the considerations of high qualified people from abroad to decide for whether or not to settle in the UK.

It is not only the question of researchers.

I saw a statistic somewhere that the EU had contributed €2bn of research funding over half a decade to the UK. That funding brings the researchers, and brings the corporate spend on research with it. If the UK loses out on this funding, there is an opportunity for Ireland.

Thomas_...

Godge wrote: »

It is not only the question of researchers.

I saw a statistic somewhere that the EU had contributed €2bn of research funding over half a decade to the UK. That funding brings the researchers, and brings the corporate spend on research with it. If the UK loses out on this funding, there is an opportunity for Ireland.

Thanks very much for that post. I doubt that when the UK has exited the EU that she will receive any funding from the EU anymore.

Lemming

Thomas_... wrote: »

Thanks very much for that post. I doubt that when the UK has exited the EU that she will receive any funding from the EU anymore.

UK institutions are already being frozen out of joint-research ventures that are scheduled to continue beyond the next year or two as well. By 'frozen out', they are simply being passed over for other institutions due to the uncertainty that has been created. They are quite simply not seen as being reliable partners.

Thomas_...

Lemming wrote: »

UK institutions are already being frozen out of joint-research ventures that are scheduled to continue beyond the next year or two as well. By 'frozen out', they are simply being passed over for other institutions due to the uncertainty that has been created. They are quite simply not seen as being reliable partners.

I might remember to have read something like that in the past weeks. I just don´t know where it was. Do you have some link to further information on that, in case that it´s by now more up to date?

Lemming

Thomas_... wrote: »

I might remember to have read something like that in the past weeks. I just don´t know where it was. Do you have some link to further information on that, in case that it´s by now more up to date?

Off the top of my head I don't; and I seem to recall it being mentioned by a couple of other regulars who are (or were at least) in academically-linked fields currently living down south of England.

Thomas_...

Lemming wrote: »

Off the top of my head I don't; and I seem to recall it being mentioned by a couple of other regulars who are (or were at least) in academically-linked fields currently living down south of England.

Well, thanks anyway. There have been lots of articles with predictions and things that really kicked in shortly after Brexit.

Now that the UK might face the prospect to have to wait until next year, after the GE in Germany isn´t doing any better to improve the present situation.

I doubt that many of the leave voters had reckoned with that.

Lemming

Thomas_... wrote: »

I doubt that many of the leave voters had reckoned with that.

To be perfectly frank; from seeing some of the drivel I've had the misfortune to see coming out of the facebook walls of 'acquaintances' around me in Yorkshire, I doubt many of the leave voters reckoned with much of anything. it was all so much emotive, nonsensical b*llocks, built on top of lie after lie pedaled by cretins who treated the referendum as an election campaign.

Thomas_...

Lemming wrote: »

To be perfectly frank; from seeing some of the drivel I've had the misfortune to see coming out of the facebook walls of 'acquaintances' around me in Yorkshire, I doubt many of the leave voters reckoned with much of anything. it was all so much emotive, nonsensical b*llocks, built on top of lie after lie pedaled by cretins who treated the referendum as an election campaign.

That is by far one the best comments I´ve read about the Brexit and hits the nail on the head.

Godge

Thomas_... wrote: »

I might remember to have read something like that in the past weeks. I just don´t know where it was. Do you have some link to further information on that, in case that it´s by now more up to date?

I had a look, couldn't find the article I remember reading. However, came across this graph (second on the page) which more or less backs it up but it shows over €2bn in 7 years.

https://ec.europa.eu/research/fp7/index_en.cfm?pg=country-profile

Godge

Thomas_... wrote: »

I might remember to have read something like that in the past weeks. I just don´t know where it was. Do you have some link to further information on that, in case that it´s by now more up to date?

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/jul/12/uk-scientists-dropped-from-eu-projects-because-of-post-brexit-funding-fears


Guardian article on the subject...

djpbarry

Bob24 wrote: »

Being a pragmatist to remain in power and progress your career, yes all politicians are (including Farage).

I’m sorry – Farage is a pragmatist? Are you kidding?

Bob24 wrote: »

To avoid subjective statements I will just give one factual figure showing how Belgium still is special: even though Belgium doesn't have the largest Muslim population in Europe (in proportion of the total national population), it has by far the highest proportion of citizens fighting with jihadist groups in Iraq/Syria: http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/original-size/images/print-edition/20151121_FBM831_1.png
So in short Belgian Muslims are much more likely than other European Muslims become jihadists.
Also regardless of their nationalities (Belgium, French, or other) a majority of the terrorists who attacked French targets in the past 2 years had a rear base in Molenbeek: http://www.france24.com/fr/20160323-attentats-paris-bruxelles-molenbeek-pourquoi-chemins-jihadisme-terrorisme

So yeah - pretty special place ...

Ok - so how does this make Verhofstadt an unsuitable candidate for Brexit negotiations?

djpbarry

Thomas_... wrote: »

Quite right, such places can be found in many greater towns across Western Europe. That´s also a reason for why the Eastern European EU member states don´t like to take in their share of Muslim refugees and asylum seekers. The see what happened in the West and they don´t want to have it for themselves.

I’m pretty confident that virtually all riots in Europe (which there are very few of) have absolutely nothing to do with “Muslim refugees and asylum seekers”.

Bob24

djpbarry wrote: »

I m sorry Farage is a pragmatist? Are you kidding?

Don't you think he is adapting his speech to what will get him the most votes?
Is that no pragmatism?

djpbarry wrote: »

Bob24 wrote: »

To avoid subjective statements I will just give one factual figure showing how Belgium still is special: even though Belgium doesn't have the largest Muslim population in Europe (in proportion of the total national population), it has by far the highest proportion of citizens fighting with jihadist groups in Iraq/Syria: http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/original-size/images/print-edition/20151121_FBM831_1.png
So in short Belgian Muslims are much more likely than other European Muslims become jihadists.
Also regardless of their nationalities (Belgium, French, or other) a majority of the terrorists who attacked French targets in the past 2 years had a rear base in Molenbeek: http://www.france24.com/fr/20160323-attentats-paris-bruxelles-molenbeek-pourquoi-chemins-jihadisme-terrorisme

So yeah - pretty special place ...

Ok - so how does this make Verhofstadt an unsuitable candidate for Brexit negotiations?

I invite you to click on the quote link and read one more time the statement I was replying to here. The question I was addressing in this case is whether Belgium does have a specific issue with Molenbeek and other similar places.

Sam Russell

Does 'free movement of labour' mean freedom to move to another country to take up employment and not so one can retire?

If the EU states choose not to honour the UK E111 forms for retirees and insist they pay full medical costs, full income tax, plus all other taxes as aliens, will the increase cost not drive many British retirees back to the UK? Currently Switzerland honours the E111.

I think this needs more thought.

Pro Hoc Vice

Sam Russell wrote: »

Does 'free movement of labour' mean freedom to move to another country to take up employment and not so one can retire?

If the EU states choose not to honour the UK E111 forms for retirees and insist they pay full medical costs, full income tax, plus all other taxes as aliens, will the increase cost not drive many British retirees back to the UK? Currently Switzerland honours the E111.

I think this needs more thought.

Free movement was extended to include students and non economically active persons. But and a very big but the host country in relation to non economically active persons can request that they prove sufficient resources and have private health insurance.

"Students and other economically non-active persons (e.g. unemployed, retired, etc.) have the right to reside for longer than three months if they have for themselves and their family sufficient financial means so as not to become a burden on the host EU country’s social assistance system as well as health insurance."

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-14-9_en.htm

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

Does 'free movement of labour' mean freedom to move to another country to take up employment and not so one can retire?

If the EU states choose not to honour the UK E111 forms for retirees and insist they pay full medical costs, full income tax, plus all other taxes as aliens, will the increase cost not drive many British retirees back to the UK? Currently Switzerland honours the E111.

I think this needs more thought.

I've always thought that the UK actually ends up contributing more through the EHIC (E111 is now EHIC) system than her citizens take out?

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

I've always thought that the UK actually ends up contributing more through the EHIC (E111 is now EHIC) system than her citizens take out?

That is very true but it is the fault of the UK and its NHS system that does not have the inbuilt ability to charge for health services.

Our HSE tries to charge everyone for everything, as do most EU health services, quite often a refund claim is required after paying upfront.

Lemming

Pro Hoc Vice wrote: »

Free movement was extended to include students and non economically active persons. But and a very big but the host country in relation to non economically active persons can request that they prove sufficient resources and have private health insurance.

Bold emphasis is mine.

The UK - as far as I can recall - insists on such criteria for anyone wishing to apply for the right to remain already, who is not an EU citizen. That's on top of the 80+ page form you have to submit.

Thomas_...

djpbarry wrote: »

I’m pretty confident that virtually all riots in Europe (which there are very few of) have absolutely nothing to do with “Muslim refugees and asylum seekers”.

I trust that you´ve noticed of what was going on in Bautzen, Germany recently? This could be just a start and when I look at that video with many of them "camping" along the streets of Paris, I wonder who long that will be tolerated yet.